FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wabndy]

Analyzing the bracket again, Wabash was definitely given an excellent spot. Right now, if I am a fan of Linfield, Centre, Wheaton, and St. Scholastica, I am not happy. I wonder what an 8-2 Ithaca team (if anything at all) would have done to their spot in the playoffs.

Centre and St. Scholastica don't have anything to be unhappy about.  Their SOS was atrocious.  St. Scholastica even had a higher SOS than Centre, and even Centre was regionally ranked (of course we don't know if St. Scholastica was in the secret rankings, but they weren't in last week's).  When your SOS is below 0.475 with no RROs, you really can't ask for a home game. 
Linfield is an island team, which buys them a ticket to Texas in round two.  The NCAA pretty much always plans to send island teams to other island teams where they can.
Wheaton is bracketed as a 5-8 seed (probably #8 given their low SOS, although they do have an RRO win).  They also fit well geographically in Mt. Union's bracket, which buys them a visit from John Carroll round 2.  One of the things that I do like about this bracket is that pretty much only the 1 seeds have very winnable games through the first two rounds. 
Had Ithaca won last Saturday I doubt it would have made much difference.  My only thought is it could have sent MIT to Ithaca and Husson to Hobart - but that would have been way too long a trip.  It makes much more sense to send a bus from Boston to Bangor (or vice versa).  Each of the putative hosts (sorry MIT) in that bracket are undefeated in D3. 

[jknezek]

Analyzing the bracket again, Wabash was definitely given an excellent spot. Right now, if I am a fan of Linfield, Centre, Wheaton, and St. Scholastica, I am not happy. I wonder what an 8-2 Ithaca team (if anything at all) would have done to their spot in the playoffs.

Centre and St. Scholastica don't have anything to be unhappy about.  Their SOS was atrocious.  St. Scholastica even had a higher SOS than Centre, and even Centre was regionally ranked (of course we don't know if St. Scholastica was in the secret rankings, but they weren't in last week's).  When your SOS is below 0.475 with no RROs, you really can't ask for a home game. 
Linfield is an island team, which buys them a ticket to Texas in round two.  The NCAA pretty much always plans to send island teams to other island teams where they can.
Wheaton is bracketed as a 5-8 seed (probably #8 given their low SOS, although they do have an RRO win).  They also fit well geographically in Mt. Union's bracket, which buys them a visit from John Carroll round 2.  One of the things that I do like about this bracket is that pretty much only the 1 seeds have very winnable games through the first two rounds. 
Had Ithaca won last Saturday I doubt it would have made much difference.  My only thought is it could have sent MIT to Ithaca and Husson to Hobart - but that would have been way too long a trip.  It makes much more sense to send a bus from Boston to Bangor (or vice versa).  Each of the putative hosts (sorry MIT) in that bracket are undefeated in D3.

Husson to Hobart is 591 miles. Would require a flight. Maine is a long way away from most D3 places...

[smedindy]

Without Framingham in the field MIT vs. Husson was pre-destined.

[USee]

Analyzing the bracket again, Wabash was definitely given an excellent spot. Right now, if I am a fan of Linfield, Centre, Wheaton, and St. Scholastica, I am not happy. I wonder what an 8-2 Ithaca team (if anything at all) would have done to their spot in the playoffs.

Centre and St. Scholastica don't have anything to be unhappy about.  Their SOS was atrocious.  St. Scholastica even had a higher SOS than Centre, and even Centre was regionally ranked (of course we don't know if St. Scholastica was in the secret rankings, but they weren't in last week's).  When your SOS is below 0.475 with no RROs, you really can't ask for a home game. 
Linfield is an island team, which buys them a ticket to Texas in round two.  The NCAA pretty much always plans to send island teams to other island teams where they can.
Wheaton is bracketed as a 5-8 seed (probably #8 given their low SOS, although they do have an RRO win).  They also fit well geographically in Mt. Union's bracket, which buys them a visit from John Carroll round 2.  One of the things that I do like about this bracket is that pretty much only the 1 seeds have very winnable games through the first two rounds. 
Had Ithaca won last Saturday I doubt it would have made much difference.  My only thought is it could have sent MIT to Ithaca and Husson to Hobart - but that would have been way too long a trip.  It makes much more sense to send a bus from Boston to Bangor (or vice versa).  Each of the putative hosts (sorry MIT) in that bracket are undefeated in D3.

Not sure if you mean this literally but I am pretty sure Wheaton is the #2 seed in the Mt Union bracket (tho there are no seeds!). JCU is the #3 seed and Witt/Centre are the 4/5 which is why it plays out this way. If JCU had lost to Mt Union last Saturday by 20+ then maybe Witt is the #3 seed and JCU the 4. We won't know. Either way, Wheaton is hosting for first two rounds and travel to Mt Union in round 3 if that happens. It feels like a 5-8 seed draw for sure!

[wally_wabash]

I think he's saying 5-8 overall, not 5-8 in that particular quadrant. 

[USee]

I think he's saying 5-8 overall, not 5-8 in that particular quadrant.

AAAAH! Good clarification. That makes sense. I don't have the global vision you do Wally!

[wally_wabash]

Franklin gives up 5.85 yards per play.  Not per pass attempt.  Not per first down.  Six yards.  Per.  Play. 

[wabndy]

I think he's saying 5-8 overall, not 5-8 in that particular quadrant.

What he said. Based on what the powers that be have told us, the committee picks the top four and builds brackets around them, followed by 5-8.  Given travel, everyone else sort of falls into place around the top 8.

[smedindy]

Franklin gives up 5.85 yards per play.  Not per pass attempt.  Not per first down.  Six yards.  Per.  Play.

Is that bad? 

Who turned the HCAC into the pass-wacky defense-optional ASC? Would they schedule ETBU just to see the scoreboard tilt?

[BashDad]

Let's just take a couple more whacks at this Franklin defense.

These are the teams who had their best or second best offensive performance against the Grizzlies:

IWU       (495 yards; 2nd most on the year; +123 against their offensive average)
UWW     (548; 2nd; +75)
Anderson    (349; 2nd; +87)
Earlham     (424; 2nd; +74)
Hanover     (590; 2nd; +195)

The rest of their schedule:

Bluffton       (270; 8th best; -86)
Manchester    (480; 5th; +34)
Mt St Jo       (450; 3rd; +1)
Rose-Hulman    (370; 9th; -127)
Defiance       (351; 4th; +7)

So.

In half their games, Franklin allowed for an opponent's second best offensive performance of the season.

In 8 games, they allowed an opponent to exceed their season offensive average. The margin was, on average, +75. In other words, Franklin's opponent usually improved on their season average by around 75 yards.

You see where this is going, I'm sure. Wabash's offensive average is 449 yards a game. This is what they've done:

1. Allegheny    (611 yards) Wab: +162 v offensive avg               Allegheny +129 vs their defensive avg
2. Oberlin       (604) Wab: +155                                 Oberlin: +144
3. OWU       (511) Wab: +61                                   OWU: +103
4. Hiram       (489) Wab: +40                                   Hiram: +70
5. Kenyon       (425) Wab: -24                                      Kenyon: +18
6. Denison    (413) Wab: -36                                      Denison: +78
7. Depauw    (397) Wab: -52                                      Depauw: +87
8. Wooster      (364) Wab: -85                                Wooster: -30
9. Wittenberg    (352) Wab: -97                                      Wittenberg: +75
10. HSC       (321) Wab: -128                                  HSC: -50

In each game, Wabash remained roughly 100 yards from their offensive average in both directions. Their highest output was 611; lowest was 321.

In 8 games, Wabash produced more offense than their opponent's defensive average (including Wittenberg, the best defense they faced all year). The margin was, on average, +72. In other words, Wabash usually produced around 72 more yards than an opponent was accustomed to giving up.

Franklin gives up an average of 431 yards of total offense.

1. Let's presume that Franklin allows, as they have 8 times this season, Wabash to gain 75 more yards than their season average. That would be 524 yards.

2. Let's presume that Wabash produces, as they have done 8 times this season (including against the best opponent they've faced), 72 more yards than their opponent is accustomed to. Against Franklin, that would be 503 yards.

3. Let's guess that, as over half Franklin's opponent's have done, Wabash produces at least their third highest offensive total of the year. That would be 511 yards.

Seeing a pattern here?

Guess what the average amount of points Wabash scores in games where they produce over 500 yards.

It's 60.

For Franklin to keep it close, they better hope for turnovers and big chunks of yards.

[DadofBashWarrior..]

I would like to get a copy of the 2011 Playoff game Wabash/North Central...any suggestions how I can get this...I am not tech savvy...Help!!!

[ExTartanPlayer]

You know, BashDad, you say this stuff so authoritatively and so sensibly it's hard to see how you could possibly be wrong.

Then I remember you picked Wabash to beat Witt 35-7 in a post about as long as Hemingway novel.

I'm not saying you're wrong this time. Wabash may well blow Franklin out of the water. The Grizz D certainly looks suspect. But the numbers don't always add up to the final result on the field. Franklin over the last few seasons has been what I call a "high-variance" team...anyone who can lead Mount Union in the fourth quarter in Alliance and then lose to BLUFFTON in the same season is a hard outfit to pin down.

I don't know who'll win this weekend. Wabash looks like the better side on paper. But in several of Wabash's biggest games in the last five years - both wins and losses - the better side "on paper" has not always been the victor.

[BashDad]

Haha. I know! Shouldn't it always play out like you want it to?

[USee]

Let's just take a couple more whacks at this Franklin defense.

These are the teams who had their best or second best offensive performance against the Grizzlies:

IWU       (495 yards; 2nd most on the year; +123 against their offensive average)
UWW     (548; 2nd; +75)
Anderson    (349; 2nd; +87)
Earlham     (424; 2nd; +74)
Hanover     (590; 2nd; +195)

The rest of their schedule:

Bluffton       (270; 8th best; -86)
Manchester    (480; 5th; +34)
Mt St Jo       (450; 3rd; +1)
Rose-Hulman    (370; 9th; -127)
Defiance       (351; 4th; +7)

So.

In half their games, Franklin allowed for an opponent's second best offensive performance of the season.

In 8 games, they allowed an opponent to exceed their season offensive average. The margin was, on average, +75. In other words, Franklin's opponent usually improved on their season average by around 75 yards.

You see where this is going, I'm sure. Wabash's offensive average is 449 yards a game. This is what they've done:

1. Allegheny    (611 yards) Wab: +162 v offensive avg               Allegheny +129 vs their defensive avg
2. Oberlin       (604) Wab: +155                                 Oberlin: +144
3. OWU       (511) Wab: +61                                   OWU: +103
4. Hiram       (489) Wab: +40                                   Hiram: +70
5. Kenyon       (425) Wab: -24                                      Kenyon: +18
6. Denison    (413) Wab: -36                                      Denison: +78
7. Depauw    (397) Wab: -52                                      Depauw: +87
8. Wooster      (364) Wab: -85                                Wooster: -30
9. Wittenberg    (352) Wab: -97                                      Wittenberg: +75
10. HSC       (321) Wab: -128                                  HSC: -50

In each game, Wabash remained roughly 100 yards from their offensive average in both directions. Their highest output was 611; lowest was 321.

In 8 games, Wabash produced more offense than their opponent's defensive average (including Wittenberg, the best defense they faced all year). The margin was, on average, +72. In other words, Wabash usually produced around 72 more yards than an opponent was accustomed to giving up.

Franklin gives up an average of 431 yards of total offense.

1. Let's presume that Franklin allows, as they have 8 times this season, Wabash to gain 75 more yards than their season average. That would be 524 yards.

2. Let's presume that Wabash produces, as they have done 8 times this season (including against the best opponent they've faced), 72 more yards than their opponent is accustomed to. Against Franklin, that would be 503 yards.

3. Let's guess that, as over half Franklin's opponent's have done, Wabash produces at least their third highest offensive total of the year. That would be 511 yards.

Seeing a pattern here?

Guess what the average amount of points Wabash scores in games where they produce over 500 yards.

It's 60.

For Franklin to keep it close, they better hope for turnovers and big chunks of yards.

BashDad,

This is coming dangerously close to some good analysis that took a fair bit of time to compile, something I have accused you of not contributing in the past so I would be remiss in not acknowledging this solid contribution to the discussion. I know you don't care but +K. 

[aueagle]

Just spit-balling here...but,  the Husson facility
looks more baseball/multi-purpose than FOOTBALL...