FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[The_Bishop]

Wabash wins 17-14.

I think I speak for most of the posters on this board when I say that I hope you are right and Wabash gets an historic victory tomorrow. 

[wabashcpa]

Nice work, BashDad.  Now it is time to execute that plan.  Shock the world, gentlemen.

[BashBacker#16]

THE WATER RUNS RED


Okay.

This is a big week. The biggest week, for Wabash, since weeks 13 and 14 of 2011 and, before that, week 12 of 2009, week 13 of 2008, week 13 of 2005, and before that, week 4 of 2002.

The scores of those games:

2002 - Wabash 46 Wittenberg 43 - W
2005 - Capital 13 Wabash 10 - L
2008 - Wheaton 52 Wabash 28 - L
2009 - Illinois Wesleyan 41 Wabash 35 - L
2011 - Wabash 29 North Central 28 - W
2011 - Wabash 8 Mount Union 20 - L

These games, to me, describe the march of the program over the last 14 seasons from a conference contender to a regional contender to—as will be tested on Saturday—a maybe, could-be, I-think-we-done-did-it national contender. The above list ignores a handful of playoff games and, more relevant to this week, The Thrashings: the 2002 MUC game and the 2007 UWW game. Those were most definitely "big games" as far as we were all concerned, but they were also most definitely going to be losses. Those games were like opening a Christmas present on Christmas Eve, ("look at what we got — a game against a team that plays on ESPN!"), and were treated as a kind of circumstantial novelty. Wabash wasn't—though they were hoping otherwise—ready. In 2002, MUC wasn't the "what's next" for the program, neither was UWW five years later.

The win against North Central in 2011 was the first time since the Wittenberg win in 2002 that the ceiling of the Wabash program was pushed upward — this, it seemed, was the what's next. This was an arrival on par with the arrival that happened in Springfield, Ohio almost a decade prior, in no less dramatic fashion. The program proved what we'd all been yelling about, despite any real evidence — they had, before our eyes, built something. Were building something. They were getting better. When Wabash headed for Alliance the following week, it didn't feel, as it had previously, like a walk to the gallows. We all thought this could be different. And though Wabash lost, we weren't wrong. The 20 points UMU scored are the fewest points they've scored against a non-National-Champion not just since that game, but since 2005. Unlike in 2002 or 2007, Wabash put up a fight. A real fight. And then they went away.

While Wabash has been absent in the playoffs for two years, my feeling—the feeling, I think, of anyone following Wabash closely—is that those interim teams were not, as the duration of their season might indicate, regressions. Some weird stuff happened in 2012, the Pool C field was prohibitively competitive in 2013, and so—oops—Wabash stayed home.

But make no mistake — the team that held UMU to 20 points (a Wabash team that included many of the current team's best players), didn't just go away. This year's Wabash team isn't just not-the-2007 version, they're also not-the-2011 version. Statistically, this year's group is better—against a tougher schedule, by the way—in every major category: total offense, total defense, scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing yards, and passing—yes—passing yards. Check, check, check, check, check, and check.

If I'm a Whitewater fan, the no-big-surprises version of this game ends—I think—in a 23-6 victory. But I'm not a Whitewater fan. I'm a Wabash fan. So here's how we win:


PART I.    THE UNPRECEDENTED BEGETS THE UNPRECEDENTED

1. Whitewater has never given up more than two sacks in a single game.
2. Whitewater has never turned the ball over more than one time in a single game.
3. Whitewater has never lost.

These are related.

Wabash has had five or more sacks eight times this year. They've had less than four only once. Disrupt #1, disrupt #3.


PART II.    THE RIVER FALLS SOLUTION


I get it. If my team almost got beat by a 3-7 team, I'd say it didn't matter either. It was an aberration. Evidence of nothing. But there is something definitive that the River Falls game revealed, and that's what a box score might look like following Whitewater's defeat.

River Falls is the only team all year who a.) held the Warhawks under 150 yards on the ground, b.) rushed themselves for over 150 yards, and c.) also threw for over 150 yards. This is the secret code of that game. Those three categories.

When combing through Whitewater's season-to-date, you come across teams who had success through the air, but couldn't run (Franklin, Platteville, Stevens Point) or teams that could run, but not pass (Osh Kosh), but the only team to do both even kinda-okay is the only team that almost won. Why? Because they also stuffed the run.

I don't care about why Whitewater had a tough game, be it indifference or injury, but I do care about how they had a tough game, particularly because how they had a tough game matches up very nicely—if you're a Wabash fan—to the Little Giant's strengths: Wabash stops the run and employs a balanced, run-first offense.

(Osh-Kosh confirms this how-to-win cocktail, even though they lost 24-7, a margin attributable to four turnovers and a passing game that couldn't accumulate a hundred yards.)

So.

a. Can Wabash rush for 150 yards on Saturday? I don't know. River Falls did. Osh Kosh did. Macalaster almost did. And neither of those teams have these guys:



b. Can Wabash hold UWW to 150 yards rushing? I don't know. River Falls and Osh Kosh did. Our rushing defense is not third best of that bunch. And we have these guys:



c. Can Wabash pass for 150 yards on Saturday? I don't know. But—holy schmoly—nearly everyone the Warhawks faced did:  Franklin, Stout, Eau-Claire, Plattville, Osh Kosh, Stevens Point, River Falls, Macalaster. And we have this guy:



And these guys:



Wabash, I would say, has a better-than-average shot at reaching each of these three milestones and the only time—the only time—that happened all-at-once to the Warhawks this year, they had to cross their fingers in the final minutes of a game.

So yay.


PART III.   GOD'S HONEST TRUTH

Wabash wins 17-14.

Fear the flock.

WAF.

...probably one of my favorite posts of all time.  Nice work #3.  Count down continues...

Wabash Always Fights!

[Craft_Beermeister]

THE WATER RUNS RED


Okay.

This is a big week. The biggest week, for Wabash, since weeks 13 and 14 of 2011 and, before that, week 12 of 2009, week 13 of 2008, week 13 of 2005, and before that, week 4 of 2002.

The scores of those games:

2002 - Wabash 46 Wittenberg 43 - W
2005 - Capital 13 Wabash 10 - L
2008 - Wheaton 52 Wabash 28 - L
2009 - Illinois Wesleyan 41 Wabash 35 - L
2011 - Wabash 29 North Central 28 - W
2011 - Wabash 8 Mount Union 20 - L

These games, to me, describe the march of the program over the last 14 seasons from a conference contender to a regional contender to—as will be tested on Saturday—a maybe, could-be, I-think-we-done-did-it national contender. The above list ignores a handful of playoff games and, more relevant to this week, The Thrashings: the 2002 MUC game and the 2007 UWW game. Those were most definitely "big games" as far as we were all concerned, but they were also most definitely going to be losses. Those games were like opening a Christmas present on Christmas Eve, ("look at what we got — a game against a team that plays on ESPN!"), and were treated as a kind of circumstantial novelty. Wabash wasn't—though they were hoping otherwise—ready. In 2002, MUC wasn't the "what's next" for the program, neither was UWW five years later.

The win against North Central in 2011 was the first time since the Wittenberg win in 2002 that the ceiling of the Wabash program was pushed upward — this, it seemed, was the what's next. This was an arrival on par with the arrival that happened in Springfield, Ohio almost a decade prior, in no less dramatic fashion. The program proved what we'd all been yelling about, despite any real evidence — they had, before our eyes, built something. Were building something. They were getting better. When Wabash headed for Alliance the following week, it didn't feel, as it had previously, like a walk to the gallows. We all thought this could be different. And though Wabash lost, we weren't wrong. The 20 points UMU scored are the fewest points they've scored against a non-National-Champion not just since that game, but since 2005. Unlike in 2002 or 2007, Wabash put up a fight. A real fight. And then they went away.

While Wabash has been absent in the playoffs for two years, my feeling—the feeling, I think, of anyone following Wabash closely—is that those interim teams were not, as the duration of their season might indicate, regressions. Some weird stuff happened in 2012, the Pool C field was prohibitively competitive in 2013, and so—oops—Wabash stayed home.

But make no mistake — the team that held UMU to 20 points (a Wabash team that included many of the current team's best players), didn't just go away. This year's Wabash team isn't just not-the-2007 version, they're also not-the-2011 version. Statistically, this year's group is better—against a tougher schedule, by the way—in every major category: total offense, total defense, scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing yards, and passing—yes—passing yards. Check, check, check, check, check, and check.

If I'm a Whitewater fan, the no-big-surprises version of this game ends—I think—in a 23-6 victory. But I'm not a Whitewater fan. I'm a Wabash fan. So here's how we win:


PART I.    THE UNPRECEDENTED BEGETS THE UNPRECEDENTED

1. Whitewater has never given up more than two sacks in a single game.
2. Whitewater has never turned the ball over more than one time in a single game.
3. Whitewater has never lost.

These are related.

Wabash has had five or more sacks eight times this year. They've had less than four only once. Disrupt #1, disrupt #3.


PART II.    THE RIVER FALLS SOLUTION


I get it. If my team almost got beat by a 3-7 team, I'd say it didn't matter either. It was an aberration. Evidence of nothing. But there is something definitive that the River Falls game revealed, and that's what a box score might look like following Whitewater's defeat.

River Falls is the only team all year who a.) held the Warhawks under 150 yards on the ground, b.) rushed themselves for over 150 yards, and c.) also threw for over 150 yards. This is the secret code of that game. Those three categories.

When combing through Whitewater's season-to-date, you come across teams who had success through the air, but couldn't run (Franklin, Platteville, Stevens Point) or teams that could run, but not pass (Osh Kosh), but the only team to do both even kinda-okay is the only team that almost won. Why? Because they also stuffed the run.

I don't care about why Whitewater had a tough game, be it indifference or injury, but I do care about how they had a tough game, particularly because how they had a tough game matches up very nicely—if you're a Wabash fan—to the Little Giant's strengths: Wabash stops the run and employs a balanced, run-first offense.

(Osh-Kosh confirms this how-to-win cocktail, even though they lost 24-7, a margin attributable to four turnovers and a passing game that couldn't accumulate a hundred yards.)

So.

a. Can Wabash rush for 150 yards on Saturday? I don't know. River Falls did. Osh Kosh did. Macalaster almost did. And neither of those teams have these guys:



b. Can Wabash hold UWW to 150 yards rushing? I don't know. River Falls and Osh Kosh did. Our rushing defense is not third best of that bunch. And we have these guys:



c. Can Wabash pass for 150 yards on Saturday? I don't know. But—holy schmoly—nearly everyone the Warhawks faced did:  Franklin, Stout, Eau-Claire, Plattville, Osh Kosh, Stevens Point, River Falls, Macalaster. And we have this guy:



And these guys:



Wabash, I would say, has a better-than-average shot at reaching each of these three milestones and the only time—the only time—that happened all-at-once to the Warhawks this year, they had to cross their fingers in the final minutes of a game.

So yay.


PART III.   GOD'S HONEST TRUTH

Wabash wins 17-14.

Fear the flock.

WAF.

Great Post.  As a Erik Raeburn fan I say make it happen.  A 17-14 victory would be nice.

[emma17]

Bashdad,
Obviously I'm on the other side of this one.  That said, your post was fantastic +1 big time.  I won't respond with counter-points because I agree with you in your analysis of how Wabash can win.

UWW needs to defend the zone read and they need to tackle your big backs.
Probably more important though is they have to control Wabash's version of "Mayhem"- that crazy active defense you guys bring.

Safe travels to all of you.   

   

[smedindy]

How robust is the network at Whitewater? Will we be in danger of crashing it? I want to be sure I see BashDad's prediction come true.

[MasterJedi]

While I obviously don't agree with the prediction (I fall more in line with the triple take pic) that was a FANTASTIC post! +k for that!

[Joe Wally]

Well said, BashDad!  Now to execute!

[02 Warhawk]

The only problem with Part II is that it isn't a "how-to-win cocktail", but rather a "how-to-keep-close cocktail".... considering all those teams listed in Part II lost. Wabash will need to do everything you listed above, AND more to pull off the upset.

However, I get your point though.....Very well explained.

[voice]

To Wabash fans, please have an enjoyable drive over to UW-Whitewater!

[Caveman # 95]

The Scarlet fan "flock" is converging on Whitewater, several carloads crossing the Indiana border into Illinois as I type...

[DadofBashWarrior..]

I will be there...when the water runs red...

[Caveman # 95]

Just passed the Mars Cheese Castle...got to be getting close.

Been eating a lot of cheese lately, I feel like a big mouse.

[bleedpurple]

Bashdad,

Well thought out and well reasoned post. +k from me as well. While I land on the 02 side of things, I recognize this was a "pathway to victory" rally cry, not a "let's debate this" post. Far be me to interrupt a rally cry!  I may respond with a couple points on the WIAC board, but more to present a more complete picture, not to undermine your well thought out scenario.

Safe travels everyone! Red and purple clash in clothing (so my wife tells me) and tomorrow it will clash on the football field.

Tomorrow will be a great day! Have fun! 

[bashbrother]

(Slightly embellished)

Nothing's difficult,
Everything's a challenge,
Thru adversity to the stars,
To the last play,
To the last whistle,
To the last minute,
To the last man,
We fight,
We fight,
We fight!!!

Wabash Always Fights!

Make history tomorrow Little Giants!