FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

Of course not, but the transitive effect from a Purple to another conference member has not been proven. That's the issue. I'll admit, many times I say the OAC and WIAC mid tier is better than most bottom tiers. But this year, the OAC was pretty much hot garbage at the bottom.

[02 Warhawk]

Of course not, but the transitive effect from a Purple to another conference member has not been proven. That's the issue. I'll admit, many times I say the OAC and WIAC mid tier is better than most bottom tiers. But this year, the OAC was pretty much hot garbage at the bottom.

Oh heavens yes....I've been saying that for a few years now about the OAC. I think half, if not more than half, of the OAC isn't at all competitive. I'm not even impressed with Heidelberg, their #3 team.

[wally_wabash]

We almost made it to gameday before the ol' "your conference stinks, ergo all teams from your conference stink" piece of "analysis".  I had such high hopes for avoiding this stuff this time around.  Le sigh. 

I think their point is that some teams look great in their own conference, then are in for a rude awakening when they play a team on top of a power conference. It's no coinicidence teams from the same conference are the ones appearing deep in the playoffs.

This is way, way off base.  It's not teams from the same conferences getting deep in the playoffs every year.  It's the same teams.  Conference doesn't matter.  If we were seeing a bunch of teams from the "power conferences" cycle  into the semis every year, then this is a good assessment (still not relevant to Wabash vs. Whitewater, but a good assessment).  But it's not multiple teams from those leagues.  It's just the same teams.  UWW, UMU, UMHB, Wesley (who isn't even in a conference), Linfield...these teams are great because they have great programs with great support and great leadership.  They could play in whatever league they wanted and they'd still be great.  We have a tendency to elevate the status of some of these leagues because one team is great.  It's not a valid assessment of the strength of the conference and none of this conference ranking business has anything to do with a single elimination game in the tournament.  Teams don't get a "rude awakening" when they play a team at the top of one of your power conferences- they get a rude awakening when they play teams with overwhelming talent like UWW or UMU.  WIAC and OAC have nothing to do with it. 

I've had a lot of time to digest (figuratively and literally) this week...I think BashDad has laid out a tremendous post detailing how things need to go if Wabash is going to have a shot.  A lot of it has to do with the LOS and getting good, competitive play against the group from UWW.  They are big and they are good- and if Wabash is going to have some success tomorrow, they'll have to be competitive there.  They're going to have to find a way to sneak some bodies through that line and get Behrendt moving around and watching something other than his receivers.  They're going to have to free up backers to keep UWW's RBs from running into the secondary.  It's a giant challenge (pun intended), but one that I think Wabash is far more suited to tackle than most of our friends in Wisconsin believe.  And if I'm wrong about that, then Wabash will get pasted just like every other team that can't compete with that offensive line gets pasted.  Some teams can skate by for a lot of a season and maybe even into a round or two of the tournament with outstanding skill players and average line play.  But UWW and UMU do what they do because they are much, much better than everybody else at that position.  And lately, UWW has been much, much better than even UMU there.  That's the secret to championships, kids.  Great lines.   

And the reverse is true- Wabash's offensive line will have to handle business on their end as well.  Wabash has to be able to rush the football tomorrow.  If Putko/Rice throw 50 times tomorrow, Wabash messed up.  Holmes and Zurek have to be good.  It's going to be tough- the toughest yards they've ever had to get.  But they have to get them and they have to be moving the chains.  I don't have the stats on this, but I think this Wabash team set a new single season record for rush  yards (they either have already or they are very close).  It's the best rushing offense Wabash has had in the current era and it's the kind of rushing offense that I think you have to have to win games of this magnitude.  Wabash has prepared and built their team over the last 7 years for games like this.  Now, they get to show how ready they are.  I believe they are ready. 

Looking at the rest of the bracket and who's left, 33-14 games are out for Wabash the rest of the way.  Starting tomorrow, Wabash won't be scoring 30+.  Not on purpose anyway.  These games are going to be won by grinding it out, scoring a couple of times, and keeping teams out of the end zone.  It starts tomorrow- Warhawks 6, Wabash 7.  It won't be easy, but it will be worth it.   

Fear the Flock.  WAF. 

[wally_wabash]

I know Wally talks about data points in his analysis. There are VERY few data points of Wabash beating a strong team.

"Absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence."  - Carl Sagan

[drt]

OK.  I love Bashdad's passion.  His pre-Witt and pre-UWW posts are some of the best prose I have ever read on any of the boards.
Don't get me wrong, I am pulling for a Wabash win tomorrow, however, if they win, it will be, by consensus, a huge upset.
Dad, saying that your program is national-level doesn't, unfortunately, make it so.  National level teams don't lose to "second-tier" (your words) teams like Wittenberg.
National-level teams have bad games against inferior teams and still get the W.  National-level teams find a way to beat everyone they meet deep into the playoffs and earn that trip to Salem.
Until you do that, all your prose will be more than just wishful thinking/"God's truth"/fiction.
Your numbers analysis is interesting, but what does it truly mean?  You held Witt to what, 60+/157?  How did that work out for you?
Anyway, go fight, like you "always" do, Wabash, and good luck tomorrow.  Prove me wrong.  I seriously hope you do. 
We'll be watching.  The entire NCAC, and many others are pulling for you.

[bleedpurple]

I know Wally talks about data points in his analysis. There are VERY few data points of Wabash beating a strong team.

"Absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence."  - Carl Sagan

Sagan is a hack.

And you are typing out of both sides of your keyboard. When it comes to the two and three WIAC teams, you have a "show me" attitude. When pointed out that Wabash has not proven anything, you quote Sagan.

You and Bashdad have creative writing ability that, to some, conceal the flaws in your logic. 

You guys can write.  Tomorrow we will find out if your football team is any good.

[emma17]

OK.  I love Bashdad's passion.  His pre-Witt and pre-UWW posts are some of the best prose I have ever read on any of the boards.
Don't get me wrong, I am pulling for a Wabash win tomorrow, however, if they win, it will be, by consensus, a huge upset.
Dad, saying that your program is national-level doesn't, unfortunately, make it so.  National level teams don't lose to "second-tier" (your words) teams like Wittenberg.
National-level teams have bad games against inferior teams and still get the W.  National-level teams find a way to beat everyone they meet deep into the playoffs and earn that trip to Salem.
Until you do that, all your prose will be more than just wishful thinking/"God's truth"/fiction.
Your numbers analysis is interesting, but what does it truly mean?  You held Witt to what, 60+/157?  How did that work out for you?
Anyway, go fight, like you "always" do, Wabash, and good luck tomorrow.  Prove me wrong.  I seriously hope you do. 
We'll be watching.  The entire NCAC, and many others are pulling for you.

And another big plus 1 on this board.
I love this post because, like art, it speaks to me. So many people get wrapped up in numbers and stats- be it O and D rankings or Massey ratings. It's about players making plays, whether beautifully or ugly, to achieve the one goal- Win and Advance.

[02 Warhawk]

Wally, look at the playoff brackets each season. It's not way, way off base. When UWW missed out in 2012, UWO tooks it's place making it to the final four. Before UWW and UWO it was UWL being the beast. The best team out of the MIAC always does well in the playoffs, not just one team: St. John's, St. Thomas, Bethel. When the CCIW didn't get NCC in, Wheaton was a final four team...before them it was Augustana.. When linfield didn't make it, Willamette almost beat the defending national champs in 2008 in the playoffs. since mount and MHB has yet to relinquish it's pool A bid, we have yet to see what a team is capable of in the playoffs when they beat MHB and/or mount in the regular season.

Yes, usually it's the same teams. But when the usual suspects have down years, it's not rare for the next team in the confernce to step up and more than hold it's own.

If you don't believe me, read some of the articles d3football.com...they break down the conferences very nicely. They unbiasedly compare the conferences.

[bleedpurple]

OK.  I love Bashdad's passion.  His pre-Witt and pre-UWW posts are some of the best prose I have ever read on any of the boards.
Don't get me wrong, I am pulling for a Wabash win tomorrow, however, if they win, it will be, by consensus, a huge upset.
Dad, saying that your program is national-level doesn't, unfortunately, make it so.  National level teams don't lose to "second-tier" (your words) teams like Wittenberg.
National-level teams have bad games against inferior teams and still get the W.  National-level teams find a way to beat everyone they meet deep into the playoffs and earn that trip to Salem.
Until you do that, all your prose will be more than just wishful thinking/"God's truth"/fiction.
Your numbers analysis is interesting, but what does it truly mean?  You held Witt to what, 60+/157?  How did that work out for you?
Anyway, go fight, like you "always" do, Wabash, and good luck tomorrow.  Prove me wrong.  I seriously hope you do. 
We'll be watching.  The entire NCAC, and many others are pulling for you.

And another big plus 1 on this board.
I love this post because, like art, it speaks to me. So many people get wrapped up in numbers and stats- be it O and D rankings or Massey ratings. It's about players making plays, whether beautifully or ugly, to achieve the one goal- Win and Advance.

That's the laziest argument you can make, Emma. Making plays. Huh! It's about creative posts and making up scenarios in which our team can win. it's about Massey and Sagan and the Norman Rockwellian Little Giants! It's about David slaying Goliath. It's about Salem dreams and Hoosiers! u rah rah

[emma17]

Wally,
I will challenge you on this statement (and Smed too)

It's not teams from the same conferences getting deep in the playoffs every year.  It's the same teams.  Conference doesn't matter. 

UWO played into the Semi Finals only 2 seasons ago. Last year UWP as a C won its first round game but lost to NCC in the second round. Many people on these boards feel NCC was championship caliber last year.

The reason you don't see other WIAC teams making more runs deep into the playoffs is precisely because the strength of the WIAC. They don't get into pool C because of the flawed system.  UWO is absolutely good enough this year to be two to three rounds deep.

To suggest there isn't a transitive impact of UWW to WIAC and WIAC to UWW is just a plain refusal to deal in reality.

[02 Warhawk]

Wesley has never seen a team like MIT.

+k

[Li'l Giant]

In other words this is a no win situation. If Wabash doesn't win tomorrow then we're just not any good. If Wabash wins, well don't get too excited because we would still only finish 4th in the SEC West WIAC.

[wally_wabash]

I know Wally talks about data points in his analysis. There are VERY few data points of Wabash beating a strong team.

"Absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence."  - Carl Sagan

Sagan is a hack.

And you are typing out of both sides of your keyboard. When it comes to the two and three WIAC teams, you have a "show me" attitude. When pointed out that Wabash has not proven anything, you quote Sagan.

You and Bashdad have creative writing ability that, to some, conceal the flaws in your logic. 

You guys can write.  Tomorrow we will find out if your football team is any good.

I pulled out Sagan not to disagree with your point that Wabash hasn't proven anything (that's a semantics debate and one I don't completely agree with you on, but for the sake of this conversation and from your perspective, no, Wabash hasn't met the requirements of having "proven" anything).  I pulled out Sagan just to point out that because Wabash hasn't beaten any of the teams on your short list of quality teams, doesn't exclude from being capable.  There was a point where Whitewater hadn't proven anything either.  Until one day they did.  And until that one day that they actually did, nobody gave them a shot to beat the champ.  It's ok to say that Wabash hasn't proven anything, but it's not ok to say that they can't.  We don't know that. 

And tomorrow we don't find out if Wabash is any good.  We already know Wabash is good.  Tomorrow we get to find out if Wabash is as good as Whitewater. 

Wally,
I will challenge you on this statement (and Smed too)

It's not teams from the same conferences getting deep in the playoffs every year.  It's the same teams.  Conference doesn't matter. 

UWO played into the Semi Finals only 2 seasons ago. Last year UWP as a C won its first round game but lost to NCC in the second round. Many people on these boards feel NCC was championship caliber last year.

The reason you don't see other WIAC teams making more runs deep into the playoffs is precisely because the strength of the WIAC. They don't get into pool C because of the flawed system.  UWO is absolutely good enough this year to be two to three rounds deep.

To suggest there isn't a transitive impact of UWW to WIAC and WIAC to UWW is just a plain refusal to deal in reality.

Platteville gets no bonus points for beating Concordia.  None.  UWO had a transcendent player in 2012.  They're not the same outfit since.  2012 UWO was good because of Mara.  Not because of WIAC. 

[BoBo]

 Let's Enhance

[USee]

Usee, the difficulty I have with your position is the drastically different paths teams have to the national stage.  If UW-W were in the CCIW, we'd be hearing a whole lot more about UW-O and UW-P and a whole lot less of Wheaton and North Central.

Hmmm, I think we can all agree if UWW was in anyone's conference they would be pretty good.  UWO. UWP? Not so much. Those two are third place in the CCIW this year.  We kind of know that already right? They didn't make the playoffs for a reason. Saying they could beat playoff teams is a useless excercise, it's unprovable.  At least for the CCIW you have some data pts. 

As far as Bash vs UWW, I think the LG defense is for real. I have said before I want to see the team that has the people and the scheme to counter the Bash D, and I think UWW has both.   I struggle with how the LGs are going to score pts against Whitewater and I ultimately think their D may get worn down but if they can run the ball as Wally suggests, keeping the D off the field and  fresh,  I think UWW will have their hands full.