FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

Question, how can you eye test 240+ teams. You can't. You need other, objective data. Period. It's why I don't rank the NESCAC in my fan poll Top 25. They can look good on the laptop, but how good ARE they when they have no crossover opponents. I have no real idea if they're as good as MIT or Husson or as bad as Kenyon. The one game non-conference at the beginning of the year isn't ideal (I would not ever think D3 needs to go beyond 10 games, nor that teams shouldn't play true round robins), but at least it's a data point.

That's the only way to compare teams from far flung regions with no common opponents. An IIAC matchup against an ODAC matchup - teams may look good or bad on any given Saturday because of the conditions, opponents, matchups and schemes.

I love it when I get accused of not watching games...

[smedindy]

As for the game, I was elated in the first half, of course, then disappointed in the second half. My laptop went down right before the Wabash blocked kick. I probably shouldn't have re-booted it!

Then I had to run to our men's / women's semi- doubleheader (games at 2 and 7 so enough time to grab dinner but not enough to do much more).

Whitewater is going to be tough to dethrone. I think Linfield is having one of those 'special' post-seasons though. You don't just waltz into Belton and win.

[Pat Coleman]

I noticed that the UWW band was there playing the UWW fight song throughout the game.  I remember them doing that during the '07 game as well.  I thought there was a NCAA rule that during the playoffs all home team traditions, fight songs etc could not be run in order to make the setting as neutral as possible.  I know that Wabash does not allow its PA announcer to lead its first down cheer.  I remember in '05 the Capital fan who parked just behind the fence next to the visitor stands at LG stadium, hooked up monster speakers to his truck, and blared the Capital fight song throughout that game (I thought that was ingenious and funny).  So what are the specifics of that rule?  Have I imagined it?  I'm not complaining, I'm just curious.

The band is not affected, because the other team is welcome to bring its own band, should it choose to do so. However, the other team is not welcome to bring its own public address announcer, so that's why the PA has to be neutral.

[smedindy]

I noticed that the UWW band was there playing the UWW fight song throughout the game.  I remember them doing that during the '07 game as well.  I thought there was a NCAA rule that during the playoffs all home team traditions, fight songs etc could not be run in order to make the setting as neutral as possible.  I know that Wabash does not allow its PA announcer to lead its first down cheer.  I remember in '05 the Capital fan who parked just behind the fence next to the visitor stands at LG stadium, hooked up monster speakers to his truck, and blared the Capital fight song throughout that game (I thought that was ingenious and funny).  So what are the specifics of that rule?  Have I imagined it?  I'm not complaining, I'm just curious.

The band is not affected, because the other team is welcome to bring its own band, should it choose to do so. However, the other team is not welcome to bring its own public address announcer, so that's why the PA has to be neutral.

That was the hardest thing I had to do as the PA announcer. After years of the "First Down" bit (don't ask me when it started, because it kind of grew organically - Amidon may have an idea when it became a thing, but honestly I can't recall the first time I did it) , here I come to the playoff game against MacMurray and I was told that I could NOT do it. That was the first thing Brent and the AD told me..."Scott, I need to tell you this first..."

[smedindy]

One thing that may be clouding vision is the 'halo effect'.

In the WIAC, THE team to beat is Whitewater. Sure, you want to win every game, but everyone circles that one game. You play them every year, you know the players, the schemes, the tendencies. You prep for them. It seems that teams give extra against them. Since the WIAC schools are all decent, (the worst being mediocre, not abysmal) then the talent gulf isn't large. Now that Oshkosh and Platteville have built their programs up and sustained them for the most part, more often than not they're going to be good games. No offense to Stout or Eau Claire, but I don't think Oshkosh expends as much emotion against UWEC than UW-W. I don't think they'll show a play that may work against Whitewater against Stout or Stevens Point.

Thus if you are a UW-W supporter, more often than not you are going to see teams expend every last nickel to beat you - in schemes, game plans, and emotion. It's natural to overrate them a bit in context. (Note I said a bit...)

Same with Mt. Union in the OAC, But the OAC ebbs and flows, for a while it's ONU, or Capital, or BW, or JCU that's the #2 team. Heidelberg, I think, gets way too tight against Mt. Union (and JCU) as opposed to when they play  others in the conference. The talent gulf between Mt. Union and the bottom of the OAC is stark - Marietta or Muskingum aren't going to beat Mt. Union in the next decade or two.  JCU gave Mt. Union a great game and probbaly will Saturday, but it's not been sustainable in the OAC for whatever reason. But if a team knows their #2 (or even #3, but the Berg...) then Mt. Union gets the ultra treatment. So the Mt. partisans may overrate the #2 OAC team a bit (though I really like this JCU team) because of that.

O think some NWC partisans may overrate their #2 and #3 teams a bit too because everyone wants to beat Linfield. And as we saw this year, you beat the king, sometimes you fall down to Earth. I don't see the ASC overrating teams, though. Maybe it's because of the conference calamities down there that there hasn't been a very consistent slate.

It will be interesting to see how the Wesley crowd rates the NJAC after a couple of trips through it. I know that conference will be gunning for them.

Leagues with multiple good teams (CCIW, MIAC, E8) may not see this as much since if you beat one contender, you have to run through another or another. We here in the NCAC know that you have to beat two teams (Wabash and Witt) to reign supreme, and then there's the Wabash / DPU thing.

This is just a working theory - but because the WIAC all have some talent and do pretty well (but by no means are invincible) and they all have a common King to dethrone - it just may be that Whitewater takes the absolute best shot from all WIAC teams every week.

[emma17]

Smed,
From the moment after I hit "Post" until now, I've been sorry I called you out personally in the manner I did.  I couldn't disagree with you more strongly than I do, but it's on me to do so with respect and temperance.  I'm sorry for stooping to name calling, and I say this sincerely and not because of anything others have said since I posted.

I'll take my disagreements with you, as well as with Wally, to a different board.  My argument isn't with Wabash or the NCAC- and in no way were my comments intended to disrespect either.  I have nothing but admiration for Wabash. 

[Teamski]

It will be interesting to see how the Wesley crowd rates the NJAC after a couple of trips through it. I know that conference will be gunning for them.

Wesley is already quite familiar with the NJAC.  The only DIII teams that Wesley has lost to in the last 7 years or so besides UMHB in the regular season have been to NJAC teams, i.e. Rowan, Montclair State, and Kean.  We have already been stung.....

-Ski

[smedindy]

I didn't realize that. Good to know. They do play good football there. The NJAC is one of those cannibal conferences - eating their own.

[bleedpurple]

One thing that may be clouding vision is the 'halo effect'.

In the WIAC, THE team to beat is Whitewater. Sure, you want to win every game, but everyone circles that one game. You play them every year, you know the players, the schemes, the tendencies. You prep for them. It seems that teams give extra against them. Since the WIAC schools are all decent, (the worst being mediocre, not abysmal) then the talent gulf isn't large. Now that Oshkosh and Platteville have built their programs up and sustained them for the most part, more often than not they're going to be good games. No offense to Stout or Eau Claire, but I don't think Oshkosh expends as much emotion against UWEC than UW-W. I don't think they'll show a play that may work against Whitewater against Stout or Stevens Point.

Thus if you are a UW-W supporter, more often than not you are going to see teams expend every last nickel to beat you - in schemes, game plans, and emotion. It's natural to overrate them a bit in context. (Note I said a bit...)

Same with Mt. Union in the OAC, But the OAC ebbs and flows, for a while it's ONU, or Capital, or BW, or JCU that's the #2 team. Heidelberg, I think, gets way too tight against Mt. Union (and JCU) as opposed to when they play  others in the conference. The talent gulf between Mt. Union and the bottom of the OAC is stark - Marietta or Muskingum aren't going to beat Mt. Union in the next decade or two.  JCU gave Mt. Union a great game and probbaly will Saturday, but it's not been sustainable in the OAC for whatever reason. But if a team knows their #2 (or even #3, but the Berg...) then Mt. Union gets the ultra treatment. So the Mt. partisans may overrate the #2 OAC team a bit (though I really like this JCU team) because of that.

O think some NWC partisans may overrate their #2 and #3 teams a bit too because everyone wants to beat Linfield. And as we saw this year, you beat the king, sometimes you fall down to Earth. I don't see the ASC overrating teams, though. Maybe it's because of the conference calamities down there that there hasn't been a very consistent slate.

It will be interesting to see how the Wesley crowd rates the NJAC after a couple of trips through it. I know that conference will be gunning for them.

Leagues with multiple good teams (CCIW, MIAC, E8) may not see this as much since if you beat one contender, you have to run through another or another. We here in the NCAC know that you have to beat two teams (Wabash and Witt) to reign supreme, and then there's the Wabash / DPU thing.

This is just a working theory - but because the WIAC all have some talent and do pretty well (but by no means are invincible) and they all have a common King to dethrone - it just may be that Whitewater takes the absolute best shot from all WIAC teams every week.

Smed,
I think this is an excellent point and definitely worth considering. I do believe UW-W gets teams' best shots in many ways. In talking with the coaches, there are several examples of teams running a scheme they didn't run all year! And what's interesting is that River Falls is a classic example.  Last year, they ran a spread offense  most of the season and came out against UW-W in a double wing!  This year, they ran a scheme they showed, but not since the first or second game of the season. And it goes without saying, emotionally, UW-W is a WIAC team's conference game of the year. Your point is well taken.  A team can outperform its own median by pouring everything into a game. And it doesn't necessarily mean that team could sustain that level.  I hadn't considered that could cause an "eye-tester" to then over-rate that team. I see why, at times, the "eye test" can be somewhat misleading.

Using that same reasoning, simply looking at a box score in such a game can also cause one to under-estimate UW-W.  For example, "The River Falls Solution" posted by some other random poster was based purely on selective numbers.    It completely ignored some of the most important factors of winning any college football game. If one uses numbers, it is important to interpret them correctly or they will lead you down a horribly wrong path.   While the "eye test" can be somewhat misleading, using statistics incorrectly can leave one looking clueless.

I know you watch football and use your eyes as well as data. While i don't always agree with you, I respect your thought process and your willingness to engage in debate in a reasonable manner.

Congrats to Wabash on a fine season. Best wishes to the seniors and their futures. 

[smedindy]

Thanks. I thought of that this morning because I've noticed it in other levels and programs. (The SEC effect in football is one...) There are many ways to look at this; we just have 10 games to look at each year and there's just no way to see every game from the MASCAC to SCIAC.

I appreciate debate and I definitely have transferred my argumentative stubborness to my eldest.  Most Wabash men will tend to argue until the street lights go dim, or the TWR runs out!

The teams that play Whitewater every year can scheme them and keep them off balance for a bit and thus they may not look like world-beaters. Then they have a second half like yesterday when, welp, they are.

One thing we ALL can agree on is that we settle our hash on the field, with enough teams in the field to make it relevant and meaningful! I mean, if D3 just had four teams in the playoffs there'd be no Linfield this year!

[Li'l Giant]

or the TWR runs out!

That's just poor planning. . .

[nike]

Quick question--is this the farthest Wabash has gotten in the playoffs? Can't remember if they have ever gotten to the next round.
Here in Wooster lot of questions about the last few games. Starting the best quarterback, statistically in Wooster history--would that not have given us a better chance of winning?  Of course it would have.
Let's see how recruiting goes.

[BashDad]

Using that same reasoning, simply looking at a box score in such a game can also cause one to under-estimate UW-W.  For example, "The River Falls Solution" posted by some other random poster was based purely on selective numbers.    It completely ignored some of the most important factors of winning any college football game. If one uses numbers, it is important to interpret them correctly or they will lead you down a horribly wrong path.   While the "eye test" can be somewhat misleading, using statistics incorrectly can leave one looking clueless.

Um. I stand 100% by that post. It describes, very specifically, the way to beat Whitewater -- hold them under 150 yards rushing, run and pass for over 150 yourself. And cause some turnovers. That'll be the stat-line of a team that beats them. The post didn't completely ignore anything. It was a more relevant contribution to the game than anything you offered and will stand as--to me--absolutely the narrative to pay attention to as the game(s) unfold(s) this week, next, and--if you're lucky--the one after that.

But let's not stop there.

I think all of you guys with your howdy-good-neighbor-cum-lunatic-grade-chest-pounding and all the bull**** ways, both big and small, you scavenge for things to either label "adorable" or take issue with -- I just think you suck. You haven't made a single point in a week that I couldn't find on the back of a how-to-be-a-fan paperback. You're a good team away from being utter trolls. So congrats -- you know next to nothing, offer next to nothing, but the team you follow is pretty damn good. Enjoy your postseason.

[wally_wabash]

Quick question--is this the farthest Wabash has gotten in the playoffs? Can't remember if they have ever gotten to the next round.

Nope.  In the AQ era Wabash has been to the quarterfinals in 2002, 2007, and 2011.  Back in the day, Wabash was the national runner up in 1977.

[BashDad]

oh my god:

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=3741.msg1637015#msg1637015