FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

smedindy · November 02, 2015, 11:32:39 AM

It shows this has more integrity than the D1 polls, where it would be anyone's guess where H-S would be...

Those 'voters' or 'lackeys' don't like to be proven wrong.

wally_wabash · November 02, 2015, 12:14:52 PM

For my NCAC Pick 'Em people-

Witt/Kenyon has been moved up to a 10:00 a.m. start on Saturday, so remember to have picks posted by then.

sigma one · November 02, 2015, 06:30:03 PM

I was struck by two Box Scores from last weekend. First, Kirchoff and Galley did not play for DePauw in a crucial game for the new tigers. Galley has been out for several games. Gruber got 15 carries and Hunt ran 17X. Second, neither Gary nor Dehnke played for Wittenberg. Not listed on the participation list. Kayser, who has carried a few times as a back up during the season, and Sarley and McClain got all the RB carries. For those last two, it was their first game. I have a hard time thinking that Gary and Dehnke were both injured. Has Finchem started looking ahead to next year v. a team (v. teams) the old tigers should beat without too much trouble? If so, too bad for two senor RBs who have been important to the program for several years

wally_wabash · November 02, 2015, 08:04:13 PM

Quote from: sigma one on November 02, 2015, 06:30:03 PM
I was struck by two Box Scores from last weekend. First, Kirchoff and Galley did not play for DePauw in a crucial game for the new tigers. Galley has been out for several games. Gruber got 15 carries and Hunt ran 17X. Second, neither Gary nor Dehnke played for Wittenberg. Not listed on the participation list. Kayser, who has carried a few times as a back up during the season, and Sarley and McClain got all the RB carries. For those last two, it was their first game. I have a hard time thinking that Gary and Dehnke were both injured. Has Finchem started looking ahead to next year v. a team (v. teams) the old tigers should beat without too much trouble? If so, too bad for two senor RBs who have been important to the program for several years

Really interesting observations. Some thoughts:
- I wouldn't recommend Matt Hunt run 17 times against Wabash. I'm not sure he'd make it to #17.

- Witt has a senior day coming against Allegheny next week, so if they are available to play, you'd imagine Gary and Dehnke would get as much run as they want. But if they weren't hurt last week, it's not totally out of the question for Fincham to get experience for guys that are coming back. I don't know if you've seen their two deeps this year, but that offense is losing a ton of players. So Witt can start plugging these guys in now and get them a couple of games worth of real experience with the starters here in 2015 or he can wait and have those guys go into the Wabash game with just two games of experience in 2016. Kind of a smart move by Fincham really. That early season game with Wabash next year does Witt's offense no favors. Big advantage Wabash, IMO.

sigma one · November 02, 2015, 09:53:56 PM

Yes, in addition to Gary and Dehnke Witt loses Jenkins at QB and two of their best wide receivers--Culvahouse and Stump if I recall correctly.
That's pretty much all (excepting Landis, WR) of their offensive firepower. Indeed, smart of Finchem if he is looking forward, but still too bad for those RBs who have had productive careers. Despite Witt's difficulties running the ball the past two years as they apparently chose, under a new offensive coordinator, to concentrate on the passing game (and for good reason from one point of view) instead of relying on two good backs, I think Gary and Dehnke have been under valued. Several years ago, they really piled up the yards. I hope they get fed all they want next week on senior day.

wally_wabash · November 03, 2015, 10:31:10 AM

Let's talk about Canaan Gebele. Gebele took over quarterback for Denison in the fifth game of the year and I'm not sure exactly what to make of what he's done. Gebele has been the leading rusher for the Big Red since taking over (leads the team by a wide margin in carries and yards) so he's definitely got a little more Sklenar in his game than Tommy Iammorino, who started the season at QB for the Big Red. In theory, the dual threat makes Denison a touch harder to defend, or at the very least forces a defense to reconsider extra defensive backs vs. DuShawn Brown.

But I've looked at the numbers here and here's what Denison's offensive production has done since that change at QB:
Total yards: 61 fewer yards per game
Pass yards: 84 fewer yards per game
Rush yards: 23 more yards per game
1st Downs: 3 fewer first downs per game
and the big one: 8.5 fewer points per game

Denison has clearly decided that Gebele is their guy, but I'm not sure the statistics point to that being the right choice.

Nonetheless, Freshman quarterback Canaan Gebele is the guy standing between Wabash and a share of the NCAC Championship. How do we think the LGs will defend him? My guess is that Wabash will spy (probably rotating the assignment based on the look) and be confident that the secondary can keep Brown blanketed. That's a big ask though and if Wabash gives up the big play, the spy thing might go out the window. I do think that playing the dual threat Orisini last week was a nice prelude to this game.

One other thing with Gebele being a freshmen in this spot- freshmen sometimes do freshmen things under duress. He did have a really nice game against DePauw last week with so much on the line (over 400 yards of total offense, 25-32 passing) but DePauw's defense isn't the same animal as Wabash's defense. I think we'll see one or two panic turnovers this week.

wabndy · November 03, 2015, 11:47:56 AM

Just saw this - great story:
http://blog.wabash.edu/fyi/2015/10/30/one-play-one-memorable-tackle/

SaintsFAN · November 03, 2015, 12:06:59 PM

Quote from: wabndy on November 03, 2015, 11:47:56 AM
Just saw this - great story:
http://blog.wabash.edu/fyi/2015/10/30/one-play-one-memorable-tackle/

Awesome. +K for sharing

wabndy · November 04, 2015, 09:58:39 AM

For the Wabash fans here. Who are you rooting for this weekend: Wheaton or North Central? Seems to me that a Wheaton win gives us Pool C insurance should we need to go swimming in those waters due to some unforseen tragedy. A North Central win likely opens up the opportunity for Wabash to host two playoff games.

wally_wabash · November 04, 2015, 10:00:28 AM

Quote from: wabndy on November 04, 2015, 09:58:39 AM
For the Wabash fans here. Who are you rooting for this weekend: Wheaton or North Central? Seems to me that a Wheaton win gives us Pool C insurance should we need to go swimming in those waters due to some unforseen tragedy. A North Central win likely opens up the opportunity for Wabash to host two playoff games.

Let me get back to you after I see the rankings today.

USee · November 04, 2015, 10:24:05 AM

The rankings are relevant for one of two reasons, and those reasons may have you root for different teams. If you want Pool C insurance then the rankings don't matter and you want Wheaton to win because it eliminates both Wheaton (AQ) and IWU (2 losses) from any competition with Wabash. So the rankings don't matter in that scenario because North Central is not going to be ranked ahead of Wheaton or Wabash. The other reason is for playoff hosting/seeding purposes. In that case Wheaton and Wabash are competing for a higher seed and hosting rights. Regardless of the rankings there you would be rooting for IWU if you believe Wabash is likely to win out (most of us believe that) because it eliminates the competition for the higher seed. But if Wabash is ranked ahead of Wheaton in today's rankings, you may well root for Wheaton to win for the first reason (Pool C insurance) because you wouldn't care as much about the 2nd reason (if both win out there is no reason to believe the order of the rankings would change).

Not sure if I have thought this through completely but that would be my 2 cents.

wally_wabash · November 04, 2015, 10:32:55 AM

Quote from: USee on November 04, 2015, 10:24:05 AM
The rankings are relevant for one of two reasons, and those reasons may have you root for different teams. If you want Pool C insurance then the rankings don't matter and you want Wheaton to win because it eliminates both Wheaton (AQ) and IWU (2 losses) from any competition with Wabash. So the rankings don't matter in that scenario because North Central is not going to be ranked ahead of Wheaton or Wabash. The other reason is for playoff hosting/seeding purposes. In that case Wheaton and Wabash are competing for a higher seed and hosting rights. Regardless of the rankings there you would be rooting for IWU if you believe Wabash is likely to win out (most of us believe that) because it eliminates the competition for the higher seed. But if Wabash is ranked ahead of Wheaton in today's rankings, you may well root for Wheaton to win for the first reason (Pool C insurance) because you wouldn't care as much about the 2nd reason (if both win out there is no reason to believe the order of the rankings would change).

Not sure if I have thought this through completely but that would be my 2 cents.

We're on the same frequency here, USee. What I'll root for in Bloomington on Saturday has everything to do with whether or not Wheaton is ranked above Wabash.

If I'm interested in Pool C insurance as a Wabash fan, I'm not looking at Wheaton/IWU, I'm looking at Hampden-Sydney/Guilford. An H-SC win down there could put Wabash (assuming Wabash is at-large here) in a position to have as many as 2 wins vs. RROs (depending on what the committee does with Witt and DePauw...I think both will be ranked today). If Wabash isn't at-large and can have as many as 3 wins vs. RROs, that's the kind of thing that SHOULD give Wabash two home games in the tournament.

USee · November 04, 2015, 10:43:15 AM

I agree. And Wheaton is like to have 2 wins v RRO (assuming a win Saturday and NCC wins out). I am not sure how they determine seeds. Do you know the criteria?

wally_wabash · November 04, 2015, 10:53:55 AM

Quote from: USee on November 04, 2015, 10:43:15 AM
I agree. And Wheaton is like to have 2 wins v RRO (assuming a win Saturday and NCC wins out). I am not sure how they determine seeds. Do you know the criteria?

Same criteria for seeding. As undefeated teams Wabash and Wheaton would be allowed to draw on last year's tournament as a tiebreak of sorts- but both went out in the second round, so kind of a push there.

I would also say that I don't think Wabash and Wheaton are necessarily competing with each other for a second round home game. It's possible they aren't in the same part of the bracket...and both could get two home games!

DadofBashWarrior.. · November 04, 2015, 10:55:40 AM

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 04, 2015, 10:00:28 AM
Quote from: wabndy on November 04, 2015, 09:58:39 AM
For the Wabash fans here. Who are you rooting for this weekend: Wheaton or North Central? Seems to me that a Wheaton win gives us Pool C insurance should we need to go swimming in those waters due to some unforseen tragedy. A North Central win likely opens up the opportunity for Wabash to host two playoff games.

Let me get back to you after I see the rankings today.

I am anxious to see the rankings today...