FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[bashbrother]

Wally.... As always great stuff.. You are a true pro and along with others make these boards what they are...

I believe Depauw has to connect deep 5+ times without falling down at the 8... Just had to..  It was a classic Bell moment last year...   

[Wabash1]

Wally.... As always great stuff.. You are a true pro and along with others make these boards what they are...

I believe Depauw has to connect deep 5+ times without falling down at the 8... Just had to..  It was a classic Bell moment last year...

There is a good lesson in that classic Bell moment that will live forever, never give up! If Woods doesn't bust his butt from the other side of the field that kid walks into the end zone. He heard foot steps and saw a red flash coming his way and the rest is history. If you never give up or quit who knows what can happen. Give up or quit you know exactly what will happen NOTHING!
GO WABASH! CRUSH DEPAUW!

[BashDad]

[wally_wabash]

Some tale of the tape stuff here to chew on. 

Stat	Wabash	Nat'l Rank	DePauw	Nat'l Rank
Rush O	254.70	20	234.60	34
Pass O	208.80	130	264.10	46
Pass Eff	132.03	90	173.04	10
Total O	463.40	t-38	498.70	19
Scoring O	42.90	17	41.80	21
Rush D	38.90	1	69.70	7
Pass D	150.60	10	226.20	144
Pass Eff. D	82.04	4	114.06	64
Total D	189.40	3	295.90	34
Scoring D	6.60	3	14.30	18
Net Punting	32.79	102	32.19	123
Punt Ret	8.87	87	7.08	144
KO Ret	20.00	t-100	20.52	88
TO Margin	1.67	t-6	0.78	50
Sacks	4.44	5	3.44	14
TFL	10.20	6	8.00	32
3rd Down Conv%	0.457	31	0.556	3
3rd Down Conv% Def	0.254	9	0.347	75
First Downs	213.00	34	241.00	8
First Downs Allowed	113.00	7	144.00	38

[BashBacker#16]

Wally,

Interesting stuff.  I am most curious to see what Big Z can do against the Depauw run D.  They give up 69.7 yards per game...

How much better is the Wabash D compared to anyone on the DPU schedule? 

I can't wait to see the stats after the game.

BB16

[sigma one]

Earlier this week the topic of Wabash's rush defense came up.  Part of the brief discussion was about how the Wabash defense was perhaps not as dominant as advertised given that the teams in the NCAC were below average in rushing offense.  The counter was that part of the reason for their rushing performance was that they had to face the Wabash D. 
     Beyond the Wabash D, remember that the DPU rush defense has also been outstanding.  Wabash has given up about 40 yds/game on the ground; DPU is allowing about 70 yds/game.  Wabash is ranked #1 in the nation in rush D; DPU is ranked #7.  So all the other NCAC teams have had to face both of those defenses.  And, of course, Wabash and DPU have not yet played one another with their respectively strong running games. 
     Wabash has so far surrendered a total of 350 rushing yards over 9 games.   As part of this, they have been gashed twice on runs of 80 yds v. Oberlin and 62 yds v OWU.  Of the 350 yards the defense has given up, 142 have come on TWO carries.  Now, yes, those yards have to be part of the total, but think that absent those two runs, Wabash has allowed only 208 additional rushing yards over the 9 games.
      To be fair, DPU has surrendered a total of 626 rushing  yards, also over 9 games.  They have allowed two rushes of 49 yds v. Woo and 64 yds v.  Wit. So, aside from those two runs they have given up 513 yds.   
      Only one team--OWU--has rushed for a net over 100 yds v. Wabash (129 yds, including that 62 yard carry).  Two teams--Woo and Wit--have gone over 100 yds v. DPU (169 yds and 163 yds).  Both those teams have the season's longest carries v. the tigers.
     Oberlin has the next best rushing performance v. Wabash, with 87 net yds (including that 80-yd-run). 
     I've gone through this exercise to come to a conclusion, one not surprising.  The team that is able to run the ball successfully, grab time of possession, will win on Saturday.  What is successfully?  the team that rushes for at least 50/75 yds more than the other team . . .because this means that success on the ground will lead to better success in the passing game.  Put that together with
limiting big plays, either rushing or passing, and there's the outcome.  Wally says 38-7, and has installed Wabash as a 20.5 point favorite.
     My prediction: Wabash 34-----DPU 17 (with DPU getting a late score).
     

[wally_wabash]

[Joe Wally]

I manage risk for a living, so please bear with me.  As a risk manager I look at those numbers and worry about kick-off returns.  We've all been to these games before, we all know how dramatically a big play can swing momentum. 

So, let's keep it buttoned down on special teams Little Giants!

[wally_wabash]

I manage risk for a living, so please bear with me.  As a risk manager I look at those numbers and worry about kick-off returns.  We've all been to these games before, we all know how dramatically a big play can swing momentum. 

So, let's keep it buttoned down on special teams Little Giants!

As a numbers guy, I think you'll understand that we have front row seats to small sample size theater here.  Wabash has returned just 12 kickoffs in 9 games.  DePauw has returned 27.  I think you can also appreciate what that stat means.   

[wabndy]

The Wabash defense has surrendered eight touchdowns this season. Two of those came on 1st play of the drive broken assignment long runs. Three came in the third quarter. Opponents have scored no 4th quarter touchdowns and only 1 field goal. Part of that stat bodes well for the future since we've had plenty of garbage time opportunities and no real garbage time points against. Strength and conditioning has been a real key for Wabash's domination of the second half.

For DePauw to have any chance in this game I think they have to have at least 14 offensive points in the first half- probably 21. I'll concede they will probably pick up one sustained drive TD. If they can break a lucky quick TD and pick up a defensive/special teams TD- then I will be very nervous at halftime. If they are at 1 TD and a couple of field goals or less- then I think I'm going to be ok. If DePauws offense is able to mount more than 1 sustained second half drive I will be shocked.

Biggest change I'm interested to see is the size comparison. In DePauw's dark years- they just weren't able to put on the field a team that physically matched up well. I thought they might have turned the corner in 2013 but 2014 gave me no indication they had made any headway. Guess we will see Saturday if DePauw has been eating their wheaties.

My prediction: Wabash 45 - DePauw 13

Weather looks to be sunny with calm winds in the 50s for Saturday. Perfect football weather.

[wally_wabash]

In DePauw's dark years-

1884 - present

they just weren't able to put on the field a team that physically matched up well.

They still don't.  Anybody who gets in for pregame and watches these two teams in the warm up period will see this.   This is where Wabash has separated.  At field level vs. Witt, Witt was small (minus Bannick, who is huge).  And not small by D3 standards, but small standing next to Wabash.  DePauw is in the same boat.  Does that mean they can't win?  Of course not.  But size is not a push this weekend.  The men in white have a clear advantage. 

[firstdown]

This week's Regional Rankings are out.  North Region:

1. Mount Union
2. Wheaton
3. Wabash
4. Franklin
5. Albion
6. JCU
7. Ohio Northern
8. DePauw

[Pat Coleman]

Full list: http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2015/second-regional-ranking

[DPU3619]

The more I think about it, it's probably a lot simpler than we think. If Wabash stops DePauw from running power, they probably win. Hunt would have to throw 40 times for 350 with <2 INT otherwise. Possible, but highly unlikely. DePauw runs the power, they win.

[wally_wabash]