FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[hazzben]

There were several good to very good front 7's in the MIAC this year. The difference is that UST was at another level with their Oline and RB combo. SJU's front 7 in particular was very good. If they hadn't matched up against UST twice, we'd have a better feel for how good. But just ask UD about the SJU front. It wasn't pretty, even in the rematch, when the vastly improved UD team was going back to Collegeville.

There's a 41% 3rd down conversion rate by SJU opponents that would challenge the idea that they had a really, really good front line defense.  That's a poor number.  168th in the division poor.   There's other factors clearly, but 12 games worth of 3rd down percentage is a really good indicator of what's going on at the LOS.

Or it could just indicate their secondary was really good at blowing it on 3rd down. They had a solid Dline and some really, really good LB's. They also played a team twice that overwhelmed them, and everyone else UST played this year, up front.

Back to the main point, UST is better on D than I think this board is giving them credit for. I think Old Pal Wes made the comment they were significantly better on offense than on defense. I'm not sure MIAC coaches would agree with that assessment. And if they are better on O, it's just a testament to how good that Oline is, because their D is really good. The Dline features the MIAC Stam Award winner, given to the best O/Dlineman in the league each year.

They play a Rex Ryan style (not scheme) that is high risk, high reward. The D coordinator came from UND where he was the coordinator for one of their national titles. USTBench has posted on this before, but they love to bring heat, in multiple and unpredictable ways. They know they'll give up a big play here and there, but it pretty formidable.

I think some of the flawed (maybe too strong a word) analysis is that it sounds like it's almost exclusively coming from film of the Augsburg game. Keep in mind, Ayrton Scott for Augsburg is an other-worldly QB. With a very so-so Oline and RB, and 1 very good WR, he's been lighting up the MIAC for 4 years. He came within something like 50 yards of breaking the NCAA career total offense record - I think around 14,500 yds (with pretty average talent around him, save one WR). If there's one guy you're not going to pin your ears back against, its Scott. All that to say, you didn't see UST's typical D that day, they rightly adjusted for the freak playing under center on the other side of the ball.

Neither team in this game has an Ayrton Scott to account for. And to be honest, no other team in D3 has one either IMO.

[wally_wabash]

There were several good to very good front 7's in the MIAC this year. The difference is that UST was at another level with their Oline and RB combo. SJU's front 7 in particular was very good. If they hadn't matched up against UST twice, we'd have a better feel for how good. But just ask UD about the SJU front. It wasn't pretty, even in the rematch, when the vastly improved UD team was going back to Collegeville.

There's a 41% 3rd down conversion rate by SJU opponents that would challenge the idea that they had a really, really good front line defense.  That's a poor number.  168th in the division poor.   There's other factors clearly, but 12 games worth of 3rd down percentage is a really good indicator of what's going on at the LOS.

Or it could just indicate their secondary was really good at blowing it on 3rd down. They had a solid Dline and some really, really good LB's. They also played a team twice that overwhelmed them, and everyone else UST played this year, up front.

Maybe sometimes.  But enough to get you 168th in the nation on 3rd down Defense?  No way.  Teams aren't completing 40% of their 3rd and 9s against anybody.  You get to giving up 40% of 3rd downs by getting beat on a lot of 3rd and shorts- and that's on your front.  I'm not going to go back and diagnose every 3rd down Saint John's defense had this year, but I'll go ahead and stand by my assertion that if you're allowing a 41% 3rd down conversion rate, you're doing something wrong at the LOS.  Maybe it's dudes.  Maybe it's scheme.  But you're doing something wrong at that level way more than you should be. 

Back to the main point, UST is better on D than I think this board is giving them credit for. I think Old Pal Wes made the comment they were significantly better on offense than on defense. I'm not sure MIAC coaches would agree with that assessment. And if they are better on O, it's just a testament to how good that Oline is, because their D is really good. The Dline features the MIAC Stam Award winner, given to the best O/Dlineman in the league each year.

They play a Rex Ryan style (not scheme) that is high risk, high reward. The D coordinator came from UND where he was the coordinator for one of their national titles. USTBench has posted on this before, but they love to bring heat, in multiple and unpredictable ways. They know they'll give up a big play here and there, but it pretty formidable.

I think some of the flawed (maybe too strong a word) analysis is that it sounds like it's almost exclusively coming from film of the Augsburg game. Keep in mind, Ayrton Scott for Augsburg is an other-worldly QB. With a very so-so Oline and RB, and 1 very good WR, he's been lighting up the MIAC for 4 years. He came within something like 50 yards of breaking the NCAA career total offense record - I think around 14,500 yds (with pretty average talent around him, save one WR). If there's one guy you're not going to pin your ears back against, its Scott. All that to say, you didn't see UST's typical D that day, they rightly adjusted for the freak playing under center on the other side of the ball.

Neither team in this game has an Ayrton Scott to account for. And to be honest, no other team in D3 has one either IMO.

Well aware of how good the UST defense is.  The numbers speak for themselves.  I am intrigued by the idea of seeing Wabash play against a defense that's cool with giving up the big play.  That's an exciting way to run your defense against inferior competition where the margin for error is huge.  That's also a good way to get yourself beat against really good teams.  It'll be fun to see Wabash O vs. UST D. 

[Li'l Giant]

I am loving this week's Breakdown With Wes Anderson.

#CoachAforUTSAOC

[wabndy]

From twitter's Liz Raeburn @missliz31 and Brent Harris @wabashathlethics



@wabashathletics: Airplane crew playing "Old Wabash"over the speaker system as we prepare to take off!

[Pat Coleman]

In terms of fans, who's traveling today?

[hazzben]

Well aware of how good the UST defense is.  The numbers speak for themselves.  I am intrigued by the idea of seeing Wabash play against a defense that's cool with giving up the big play.  That's an exciting way to run your defense against inferior competition where the margin for error is huge.  That's also a good way to get yourself beat against really good teams.  It'll be fun to see Wabash O vs. UST D.

I'm interested to see this as well. The D coordinator has 1 national title under his belt with this scheme, so it's not total garbage. But yeah, my big question is, what happens for UST when they face a team that can play them straight up in the trenches on both sides. I.e., their opponent doesn't have to max protect to defend against the blitzes and can still run their regular offense. And on the flip side, they don't have to load the box to stop the run and can slow down Roberts in their regular front, making things tougher on Gould and the Tommie receivers.

We'll see Saturday if Wabash is that team. And if so, how UST responds. My brother (fellow d3 alum and AA Olineman) and I have talked about this at length. I'd argue UWW and UWO have the horses to match up like this. I suspect Linfield and Mount do as well.

[SaintsFAN]

Very informative thread this week.  Best of luck to Wabash tomorrow, can't wait to see this one!

[wallyworld12]

In terms of fans, who's traveling today?

I'm leaving work at 3 to make the trek up to the Great White North! Expect to see many Wabash fans in attendance as well.  Should be a great day!  Have enjoyed the dialogue on the board this week.  Let's hoping the game matches the hype...

Or, alternatively, Wabash beats the ever loving you know what out of UST! 

Onward and upward!  WAF!

[firstdown]

The LG's have arrived in Minnesota.  Good Luck Wabash!

[USTBench]

Well aware of how good the UST defense is.  The numbers speak for themselves.  I am intrigued by the idea of seeing Wabash play against a defense that's cool with giving up the big play.  That's an exciting way to run your defense against inferior competition where the margin for error is huge.  That's also a good way to get yourself beat against really good teams.  It'll be fun to see Wabash O vs. UST D.

I'm interested to see this as well. The D coordinator has 1 national title under his belt with this scheme, so it's not total garbage. But yeah, my big question is, what happens for UST when they face a team that can play them straight up in the trenches on both sides. I.e., their opponent doesn't have to max protect to defend against the blitzes and can still run their regular offense. And on the flip side, they don't have to load the box to stop the run and can slow down Roberts in their regular front, making things tougher on Gould and the Tommie receivers.

We'll see Saturday if Wabash is that team. And if so, how UST responds. My brother (fellow d3 alum and AA Olineman) and I have talked about this at length. I'd argue UWW and UWO have the horses to match up like this. I suspect Linfield and Mount do as well.

I should clarify that the D UST runs is similar to the one UND ran in 2001 when they won their National Title, and now runs again under Bubba Schweigert. Kuchinski wasn't part of that coaching staff but he did bring in UND AA linebacker Digger Anderson (who was on Schweigert's staff at Southern Illinois before coming to UST) and former UND safety Brett Holinka a few years ago to help run it (they've since moved on). Right now, Wally Kubacki, another former UND player coaches the defensive line, which is no surprise. Additionally, I've heard UST coaches have been to some coaching clinics with the architects of that defense, which is now the best defense in the Big Sky and one of the best defenses in FCS.

[smedindy]

I am not surprised that Wabash is an underdog in Triple Take. We are on the road, and the NCAC is a lower-caliber league (C-M and Gustavus could give DPU and Witt a big-time scrap and I think Bethel and Augsburg could take out Denison).

Still, this is a special team, and Wabash Always Fights!

[wally_wabash]

I am not surprised that Wabash is an underdog in Triple Take. We are on the road, and the NCAC is a lower-caliber league (C-M and Gustavus could give DPU and Witt a big-time scrap and I think Bethel and Augsburg could take out Denison).

Still, this is a special team, and Wabash Always Fights!

I thought Triple Take would have Wabash has a bigger dog than they do.  I was thinking the spreads would be 14-21 points across the board, tbh. 

[Li'l Giant]

I am not surprised that Wabash is an underdog in Triple Take. We are on the road, and the NCAC is a lower-caliber league (C-M and Gustavus could give DPU and Witt a big-time scrap and I think Bethel and Augsburg could take out Denison).

Still, this is a special team, and Wabash Always Fights!

I thought Triple Take would have Wabash has a bigger dog than they do.  I was thinking the spreads would be 14-21 points across the board, tbh.

I agree. I wasn't expecting any one score margins.

[MIAC23]

Well aware of how good the UST defense is.  The numbers speak for themselves.  I am intrigued by the idea of seeing Wabash play against a defense that's cool with giving up the big play.  That's an exciting way to run your defense against inferior competition where the margin for error is huge.  That's also a good way to get yourself beat against really good teams.  It'll be fun to see Wabash O vs. UST D.

I'm interested to see this as well. The D coordinator has 1 national title under his belt with this scheme, so it's not total garbage. But yeah, my big question is, what happens for UST when they face a team that can play them straight up in the trenches on both sides. I.e., their opponent doesn't have to max protect to defend against the blitzes and can still run their regular offense. And on the flip side, they don't have to load the box to stop the run and can slow down Roberts in their regular front, making things tougher on Gould and the Tommie receivers.

We'll see Saturday if Wabash is that team. And if so, how UST responds. My brother (fellow d3 alum and AA Olineman) and I have talked about this at length. I'd argue UWW and UWO have the horses to match up like this. I suspect Linfield and Mount do as well.

I should clarify that the D UST runs is similar to the one UND ran in 2001 when they won their National Title, and now runs again under Bubba Schweigert. Kuchinski wasn't part of that coaching staff but he did bring in UND AA linebacker Digger Anderson (who was on Schweigert's staff at Southern Illinois before coming to UST) and former UND safety Brett Holinka a few years ago to help run it (they've since moved on). Right now, Wally Kubacki, another former UND player coaches the defensive line, which is no surprise. Additionally, I've heard UST coaches have been to some coaching clinics with the architects of that defense, which is now the best defense in the Big Sky and one of the best defenses in FCS.

That is like saying the fastest snail, or prettiest ogre, something to that effect 

[USTBench]

I am not surprised that Wabash is an underdog in Triple Take. We are on the road, and the NCAC is a lower-caliber league (C-M and Gustavus could give DPU and Witt a big-time scrap and I think Bethel and Augsburg could take out Denison).

Still, this is a special team, and Wabash Always Fights!

I thought Triple Take would have Wabash has a bigger dog than they do.  I was thinking the spreads would be 14-21 points across the board, tbh.

I agree. I wasn't expecting any one score margins.

Hate to kill the underdog vibe guys but you're 12-0, ran through a tough conference, and knocked off a very good Thomas More team. It'll be an upset but not exactly be the Miracle on Ice if you beat UST on Saturday. Healthy respect coming from UST, I can assure you.