FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[USTBench]

Well aware of how good the UST defense is.  The numbers speak for themselves.  I am intrigued by the idea of seeing Wabash play against a defense that's cool with giving up the big play.  That's an exciting way to run your defense against inferior competition where the margin for error is huge.  That's also a good way to get yourself beat against really good teams.  It'll be fun to see Wabash O vs. UST D.

I'm interested to see this as well. The D coordinator has 1 national title under his belt with this scheme, so it's not total garbage. But yeah, my big question is, what happens for UST when they face a team that can play them straight up in the trenches on both sides. I.e., their opponent doesn't have to max protect to defend against the blitzes and can still run their regular offense. And on the flip side, they don't have to load the box to stop the run and can slow down Roberts in their regular front, making things tougher on Gould and the Tommie receivers.

We'll see Saturday if Wabash is that team. And if so, how UST responds. My brother (fellow d3 alum and AA Olineman) and I have talked about this at length. I'd argue UWW and UWO have the horses to match up like this. I suspect Linfield and Mount do as well.

I should clarify that the D UST runs is similar to the one UND ran in 2001 when they won their National Title, and now runs again under Bubba Schweigert. Kuchinski wasn't part of that coaching staff but he did bring in UND AA linebacker Digger Anderson (who was on Schweigert's staff at Southern Illinois before coming to UST) and former UND safety Brett Holinka a few years ago to help run it (they've since moved on). Right now, Wally Kubacki, another former UND player coaches the defensive line, which is no surprise. Additionally, I've heard UST coaches have been to some coaching clinics with the architects of that defense, which is now the best defense in the Big Sky and one of the best defenses in FCS.

That is like saying the fastest snail, or prettiest ogre, something to that effect 

Haha. I was actually thinking that as I typed it, but seriously. In a conference with Cooper Kupp, and the likes of Vernon Adams, Vincent Jackson and Julius Thomas, being more than a speed bump when teams are putting up 50+ a game is not a small feat.

UND pretty much abandoned their defense when they went to the Big Sky and tried to outscore teams, which lead to Chris Mussmann getting canned and now working as an OC at D2 St. Cloud St. Schweigert was the DC when UND won their title in 2001, brought in the recruiting class that won titles at Minnesota-Duluth before he left, and was the DC at SIU and had a highly ranked defense in the toughest conference in FCS when UND brought him in to be the HC. Basically, UST has done everything it can to emulate that same defense that Schweigert and Roger Thomas came up with in the 90s and 2000s, so it's not a surprise that their staff has boasted a lot of former UND defensive players over the last 7 or 8 years.

Basically a 3-4 but OLBs are often stand up DEs that rely on speed to the sideline to get teams going laterally. Zurek doesn't strike me as the type of back that wants to beat you to the edge so I imagine he'll get his, depending on if Wabash can block Ryan Winter effectively.  UST has had a bit of a bend-don't-break with good backs over the years and are effective run blitzers. Really curious to see how they handle Zurek.

[wally_wabash]

I am not surprised that Wabash is an underdog in Triple Take. We are on the road, and the NCAC is a lower-caliber league (C-M and Gustavus could give DPU and Witt a big-time scrap and I think Bethel and Augsburg could take out Denison).

Still, this is a special team, and Wabash Always Fights!

I thought Triple Take would have Wabash has a bigger dog than they do.  I was thinking the spreads would be 14-21 points across the board, tbh.

I agree. I wasn't expecting any one score margins.

Hate to kill the underdog vibe guys but you're 12-0, ran through a tough conference, and knocked off a very good Thomas More team. It'll be an upset but not exactly be the Miracle on Ice if you beat UST on Saturday. Healthy respect coming from UST, I can assure you.

I might pass out.  Can I get a ruling?  Is this the first time anybody, anywhere has asserted that the North Coast is a tough football conference? 

And I don't think you'll see much of the underdog card here.  Motivation comes from a lot of different places.  Thomas More is a team that fed a lot off of proving people wrong.  Whitewater invents slights to get their dander up even though literally nobody on planet Earth doubts that Whitewater is anything other than awesome.  But that's not really Wabash's style, I think.  I think Wabash is fueled by confidence and belief much more than they are fueled by trying to stick it to the presumed haters. 

[smedindy]

I might pass out.  Can I get a ruling?  Is this the first time anybody, anywhere has asserted that the North Coast is a tough football conference? 

It IS better. As soon as Allegheny rights its ship no team will be truly heinous. Much props to Earlham for bailing out on that front.

[Joe Wally]

In terms of fans, who's traveling today?

Don't know the specific numbers, but there are several of our folks already in St. Paul establishing a beachhead and probably drinking all the beer.

[Pat Coleman]

If there's a gathering involving D3boards posters, I'd like to try to stop by (although my evening is a little fluid at the moment).

[wabndy]

Great chapel talk by Liz Raeburn just got posted to the wabash website.
https://youtu.be/zhc_hp3D5Bs

[Li'l Giant]

I might pass out.  Can I get a ruling?  Is this the first time anybody, anywhere has asserted that the North Coast is a tough football conference? 

Thought I was on the hoops board for a moment. I've been posting here since before this current iteration of the message board (when Post Patterns and Posting Up were separate). That would be basically the entire time Wabash has been in the NCAC and I can recall no one outside the conference saying that. I can recall people saying the opposite as recently as a the end of the regular season in the NRFP page.

It IS better. As soon as Allegheny rights its ship no team will be truly heinous. Much props to Earlham for bailing out on that front.

Better, yes. But "tough"? No one from a "power" conference has ever said that. Ever.

Hate to kill the underdog vibe guys but you're 12-0, ran through a tough conference, and knocked off a very good Thomas More team. It'll be an upset but not exactly be the Miracle on Ice if you beat UST on Saturday. Healthy respect coming from UST, I can assure you.

I think Wabash is fueled by confidence and belief much more than they are fueled by trying to stick it to the presumed haters. 

I think it's less of a desire to be an underdog and more of a desire for us to win a game like this and earn that benefit of the doubt where wins at this stage aren't viewed as upsets. Again, we have to earn that Saturday. A lot of us think this is the best team we've had with an opportunity to do that. I'll go so far as to say this our best in the 20 years I've been watching Wabash football. We'll find out tomorrow how good that really is.

[DPU3619]

My team is IN this conference and I don't think it's very good.

[USTBench]

I might pass out.  Can I get a ruling?  Is this the first time anybody, anywhere has asserted that the North Coast is a tough football conference? 

Thought I was on the hoops board for a moment. I've been posting here since before this current iteration of the message board (when Post Patterns and Posting Up were separate). That would be basically the entire time Wabash has been in the NCAC and I can recall no one outside the conference saying that. I can recall people saying the opposite as recently as a the end of the regular season in the NRFP page.

It IS better. As soon as Allegheny rights its ship no team will be truly heinous. Much props to Earlham for bailing out on that front.

Better, yes. But "tough"? No one from a "power" conference has ever said that. Ever.

Hate to kill the underdog vibe guys but you're 12-0, ran through a tough conference, and knocked off a very good Thomas More team. It'll be an upset but not exactly be the Miracle on Ice if you beat UST on Saturday. Healthy respect coming from UST, I can assure you.

I think Wabash is fueled by confidence and belief much more than they are fueled by trying to stick it to the presumed haters. 

I think it's less of a desire to be an underdog and more of a desire for us to win a game like this and earn that benefit of the doubt where wins at this stage aren't viewed as upsets. Again, we have to earn that Saturday. A lot of us think this is the best team we've had with an opportunity to do that. I'll go so far as to say this our best in the 20 years I've been watching Wabash football. We'll find out tomorrow how good that really is.

Wittenberg and Wabash have both won a few playoff games in the last 6 years. Is the NCAC as tough as the MIAC? No. But just because you run into the UWW or Mt. Union buzzsaw doesn't mean you don't have a good conference.

The MIAC has UST, SJU and Bethel. Two of which have been to the Stagg since the 2000s and all three of which have made a semifinal. We also have Concordia who seems to always go 8-2, beats a WIAC team, an NAIA team and seems to either beat at least either SJU or Bethel every year. Gustavus has been more competitive in the last few years and Augsburg ebbs and flows, often playing the likes of NCC or Wartburg pretty tough. So, I'd say the MIAC is up there with the WIAC, but the NCAC isn't a bottom tier conference by any stretch of the imagination.

BTW, been watching the Wartburg v. Denison game. Man those are some whacky stunts and blitzes. Often with only two down linemen. Could be susceptible to a well timed screen pass, but Gould better be able to get the ball out of his hand quickly. 

If Carleton, St. Olaf and Hamline played in the NCAC they'd be horrible there too. I base conference success on playoff success.

[USee]

Well aware of how good the UST defense is. The numbers speak for themselves.  I am intrigued by the idea of seeing Wabash play against a defense that's cool with giving up the big play. That's an exciting way to run your defense against inferior competition where the margin for error is huge.  That's also a good way to get yourself beat against really good teams.  It'll be fun to see Wabash O vs. UST D.

So this quote intrigued me and I set out to try and quantify it. It's an interesting set of facts, there may be other ways to analyze this, and I am not sure what it means but here it is:

I set out to see how many big plays both teams have given up. For better or worse, I quantified a big play by a play over 20 yds. I also focused on scoring plays of over 20 yds. Plays that were 20+ yds and resulted in a TD vs plays that were 20+ yds, happened during a drive that resulted in a score.  I also differentiated drives/plays given up late in games where the outcome was secure (likely against backups) and plays given up when the game was still in doubt. I counted all games including playoffs.

UST has given up 16 TD's this year. 8 of them when the outcome was still in doubt. 3 of those 8 were actual scoring plays and 6 of the 8  included plays of 20+ yds in the scoring drive. The stats of the other 8 TD's are almost identical by the way.

Wabash gave up 15 defensive TD's this season (plus 1 long PR Saturday). 12 of them when the outcome was still in doubt (almost all first half--they were scary good after the break on D). All 6 of of the long scoring plays were part of the 12 TD's. So Wabash only gave up 2 TD's in garbage time.

All in all, I am not sure either offense has much of a differentiated advantage against the other D. I have the details if anyone wants more info on this.

[bashbrother]

Bottom line,  until Wabash wins a game like this,   we will be just a "good" team.   Tomorrow is our chance to be great.

This is what fuels me and many, if not all, of the Wabash posters on this board.   

WAF!  Bring it home Men!

[Pat Coleman]

If Carleton, St. Olaf and Hamline played in the NCAC they'd be horrible there too. I base conference success on playoff success.

They would indeed still be at the same level as a program, but drop any one of them in and they'd probably finish with four wins (St. Olaf, Carleton) to six wins (Hamline). Still not competitive against the top teams but generally good enough to beat Allegheny, Kenyon, Wooster, Oberlin and sometimes Hiram.

[wally_wabash]

We just went West Wing up in here.   It's business time. 

All in all, I am not sure either offense has much of a differentiated advantage against the other D. I have the details if anyone wants more info on this.

Yes!  MOAR data please!

[wabndy]

Witt hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in the playoffs in recent memory.  If they were just regularly losing to Mt. Union every year I wouldn't say that but in the previous six seasons they've lost W&J, Hobart, and Ohio Northern, missed the playoffs twice and have only one loss to Mt. Union.  Given the dearth of Witt posters here to provide any insight, I don't know which direction this program is heading.


I think Bill Lynch is a class act and a huge improvement for DePauw, but I'm not convinced he's the one to get them to the next level.  I thought Matt Walker had the chops to do it but obviously had an abrupt falling out with the administration and nobody ever said why.  Lynch's job may be to rebuild the team from the disastrous era under Long and pass it on in a few years to someone who can.  Does Larry Kheres have any other nephews?


Raeburn was a finalist for the Whitewater job last year, which I presume means he will at least pick up the phone and listen if another program calls.


Beyond that, to be a truly elite conference you'd still need at least one other school to really step up.  The elephant in the room is that it is harder to get into NCAC schools than some others (just so our friends in Minnesota don't read that the wrong way - I acknowledge that St. Thomas and Wabash are at about the same level of admissions rigor).  I bring that up to say that there are only so many high school players out there with the size, speed, and talent required to play at the top level of D3 who are also hitting at least the 80th percentile in college admissions standardized tests.  While any one or two schools might be able to improve their program and recruit effectively enough to boost itself into the near elite, I don't see 4 or 5 NCAC schools being able to all do that at the same time while essentially going after the same pool of prospective student athletes in the midwest.

[Whitecarrera]

If Carleton, St. Olaf and Hamline played in the NCAC they'd be horrible there too. I base conference success on playoff success.

They would indeed still be at the same level as a program, but drop any one of them in and they'd probably finish with four wins (St. Olaf, Carleton) to six wins (Hamline). Still not competitive against the top teams but generally good enough to beat Allegheny, Kenyon, Wooster, Oberlin and sometimes Hiram.

I love this comment.  Pat actually gives Hiram more credibility than the other four.