FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[Retired Old Rat]

Congratulations to Wabash on a great season.  Tommies are a buzz saw this year.

P.S.  I've been hoping for a rematch since 1977.  That one is still hard to accept.

[wally_wabash]

True, Smed.

And Wally, didn't really expect to convince you and that's fine. For the record, I offered more than MOV, but whatever.

I got sucked into this because of some of the pre-game comments that appear on this board as shots at SJU. Never said Wabash was a bad or unworthy, but tried to make a case why I thought SJU was better than portrayed on this board.

Lazy? A season's worth of data can only go so far in d3, where there's so little interconference play. Seems the third-down conversion number here was overplayed. No. 2 in the nation in 3rd-down defense? Husson. Shoot, St. Scholastica -- an annual first-round AQ walkover -- is in the top 15 nationally.

You really didn't.  You offered this MOV crap and you offered a pair of wins over Dubuque that you've wrapped up in a "The IIAC is really good" blanket, which is seriously dubious.  Past that, you've offered nothing here except that SJU didn't lose quite as bad as Wabash did.  That's your entire argument because there is no other factual evidence in your favor. 

It took St. John's 25 minutes to get a first down last week.  We should just know that before we get real deep into who competed vs. UST and who didn't. 

I KNOW there is more to a team than opponent 3rd down conversion percentage.  The only thing I was pointing out with that is that none of the teams who played today had that kind of glaring statistical red flag.  St. John's did.  St. John's had a thing on their profile that stood out like a sore thumb as something that you KNEW would get them beat (lo and behold, UST runs 42 of the game's fist 51 plays vs. SJU...ballgame).  That they weren't part of today's quarterfinals was not a great disservice to the Johnnies.  They weren't as good as anybody that played today, no matter how much you want to believe that.  But that's ok, dude.  That's NOT disrespect.  Nothing wrong with being a Top 12 team in Division III.  That's an incredible season. 

[jamtod]

I wish I could say that St Thomas fans would travel as well as the crew from Wabash did.  May find out next week if we end up out west.

I'd be shocked if the left side semi isn't at O'Shaughnessy next week.

Are the final regional rankings your motive for that or do you have some insight into what drives that decision for the committee?

[jamtod]

They weren't as good as anybody that played today, no matter how much you want to believe that.  But that's ok, dude.  That's NOT disrespect.

Defending the Johnnies is not something I'd like to do, but I don't think anyone can speak definitively to this.  Having watched both games, St Thomas had a hard time establishing consistent offense and had to take opportunities elsewhere.  I can credit some of that to the Wabash D and some to injuries to our primary RBs.  That said, I think the Johnnies would have held a much closer game last week if they hadn't lost their QB before halftime.  Even if the MOV was significant, one common opponent doesn't say much because of the way team's matchup. Transitive property is meaningless, especially when both teams in the argument lost by a decent margin.

[repete]

Actually, never said IIAC is really good. Find where I said that and I'll concede the entire discussion.

And never said that SJU deserved quarterfinals over any team that played today.

We can find ugly stats for each side. And we'll never know. Two good teams and -- even if you don't agree -- I think they are both probably good enough to be in the window for a legit  discussion. Have a good night.

[wally_wabash]

Actually, never said IIAC is really good. Find where I said that and I'll concede the entire discussion.

Ok. 

Not all that impressed by Thomas More, but as someone who has seen a bit of PAC ball, I'm not that impressed with the league. SJU absolutely throttled a conference champion from a solid league, while Wabash slipped by a better opponent. Which win was better? That's a legit disagreement.

We can find ugly stats for each side. And we'll never know. Two good teams and -- even if you don't agree -- I think they are both probably good enough to be in the window for a legit  discussion. Have a good night.

Nononono.  I absolutely DO think SJU is good.  I've said this repeatedly.  I can say that I don't think SJU is as good as Wabash without also saying that SJU is hot garbage.  SJU is really good.  I promise, they are.  Wabash had a slightly better season.  That's all. 

[miac952]

Ok- I danced around it before but I can't get it out of my mind now. Does Raeburn take a call from another team? Even if the can't refuse whitewater job isn't available - is there another team out there with an upcoming coaching vacancy that he could take to be a national championship contender? Before I get pounced on- here is the intangible I don't know. How hard is it to recruit today's top student athlete that belongs on a national championship level team to a place like Wabash? I definitely got the sense that was the big reason Creighton left. We got owned by an o line  and d line today that were off the chart insane- from a school in a good size city with a similar academic profile. It's one thing to get blown out by mt Union or whitewater - they are definitely many steps down on the admissions degree of difficulty ladder. Today was different.

My fear is that if he thinks he can recruit such a team at a different school- then he's gone. I don't see him as settling for a once every four year quarterfinal blowout.

This has come up with Caruso before too. I think the there are some strong factors that keep them in place. There aren't many D3 jobs better than Wabash, especially open jobs. The opposing school can't see the current salary they make at a private, not knowing what it might take to compete. There is ultimate job security and stability; a nice plus of coaches with school age kids. D2 doesn't pay much better and are often in less attractive cities to raise families, not as academically inclined, and come with added stress of athletics scholarship complexities. And D1 is a BIG leap. The Leipold move to Buffalo was a shocker to the world outside D3 and he absolutely dominated.

With all that said sometimes there is that hunger to keep moving up and everything else gets thrown out the window.

[SaintsFAN]

I give UST plenty of credit for their D. Great team. The Tommies are at a different level than any of their playoff foes so far.

I just said may the air game -- or lack thereof -- contributed. And I did not single out Rice in that post. I said "passing game," which as far as I know DOES include the receivers.

My point is you can't pin the whole SJU is overrated or less complete than WC on the third-down defense stat. The game is more complex than that.

I don't think SJU is overrated at all.  I don't think I said that. 

I can say that giving up 41% of your third downs is terrible.  That's quantifiable and compared to the entire division, it ranks 168th, which is, I maintain, terrible. 

If you're fishing for an SJU > Wabash take, it's just not there.  There's just not one piece of evidence that supports that.  SJU lost two non-competitive games to the same team Wabash lost a non-competitive game to.  If you want to compare scores, fine, but Wabash doesn't have the same familiarity with St. Thomas that St. John's does, so there's really limited mileage there.  Looking beyond the common opponent, I don't believe SJU defeated a team as good as Thomas More, who Wabash beat.  So best win points to Wabash.  There's not really a good reason to rank 2015 SJU ahead of 2015 Wabash, although I'm sure some will.  Probably not enough to see SJU ahead of Wabash in the final Top 25, though.

Wabash will be in front of SJU on my ballot. 

Also:  the IIAC, NCAC and PAC are pretty comparable.  Not sure how the IIAC is solid while the PAC "didn't impress" someone who "had seen a bit of PAC ball".  You haven't seen much if you're using an OT win over 2015 Thomas More to discredit Wabash.

[miac952]

The fact of the matter is that it doesn't matter if SJU or Wabash is better. Both teams are great teams, and both teams are out of the playoffs.

Agree. Made that mistake and realize there are so many factors in comparing common opponent results that it's a no win argument. One thing that is absolutely clear is that the top of the MIAC is very physical and Wabash punched UST in the mouth with best of them today, as strong physically as I have seen any team play UST the last few years. The score wasn't necessarily indicative of the physical competitiveness of Wabash

[sigma one]

miac952:  Thank you.  A voice of sanity.

[repete]

There's a difference between "solid" (my words) and "really good" (yours) ... at least in my book.

But on the larger point, we aren't that far apart. And I'll own that I poorly phrased the part about "not agreeing." Ham-handed on my part.  I meant you might not agree about "being in the window." Maybe you do. If so, cool. If not, that's your right.

In the end, we disagree over which team had a better season. And -- as I've said before -- I thought another poster was wrong when they said SJU was not as good as everyone wanted them to be.

SAINTSFan: Not basing this on one game to "discredit" Wabash. I give Wabash great credit. Any elite 8 team has had a great season. And voting Wabash over SJU would be the natural thing for a TM fan. Not a shock.

[Tom Thumb]

For those interested, below are the news conferences for Wabash and UST.

Wabash: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-sLmos1wkQ

UST: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXKAHJ0WS20

Video recap of the game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqcVEYYVPXc

[Li'l Giant]

Ok- I danced around it before but I can't get it out of my mind now. Does Raeburn take a call from another team? Even if the can't refuse whitewater job isn't available - is there another team out there with an upcoming coaching vacancy that he could take to be a national championship contender? Before I get pounced on- here is the intangible I don't know. How hard is it to recruit today's top student athlete that belongs on a national championship level team to a place like Wabash? I definitely got the sense that was the big reason Creighton left

Comparing CC and ER is apples and oranges. I think everyone can see that CC's path was always heading toward FBS. I'm not so sure about that from ER. With his lineage on the Kehres coaching tree I can see him being a D3 lifer. If that's the case there are a small handful of schools that are a step up (and one of them passed on him last offseason), another handful that are a lateral move, and then everything else is a step down. My guess is if he ever leaves Wabash it's to go up to FCS/FBS or something crazy has happened and the UMU job has opened up (which I think is far less likely).

If we're keeping it 100, ER isn't the guy on our staff I'm most worried about losing this offseason: it's BJ Hammer.

EDIT: And I failed to address the recruiting issue. I think the biggest issue we have with recruiting has ZERO to do with academics and has mainly to do with being all-male. In my years assisting the admissions office I've learned getting the dudes who want to play for our teams isn't the hard part. It's getting them to a college where they won't have women around that's the hard part. Now, I'm in no way suggesting that change. But that's the big issue, imho.

[aueagle]

As I sat in the stands at Everitt Stadium on campus of HS-C back in September watching the LG's
take down the ODAC Tigers...I figured it would come down to the Witt game for the conference,
and then Bash would have a shot at a nice run into the playoffs.
You guys have much to be proud of in the way your team played & pushed themselves...
Truly...WAF
Congrats on a great season

[wabndy]

EDIT: And I failed to address the recruiting issue. I think the biggest issue we have with recruiting has ZERO to do with academics and has mainly to do with being all-male. In my years assisting the admissions office I've learned getting the dudes who want to play for our teams isn't the hard part. It's getting them to a college where they won't have women around that's the hard part. Now, I'm in no way suggesting that change. But that's the big issue, imho.

I concur. I've worked more than a few admissions fairs where I felt like I was hawking kryptonite at a superman convention. Recruiting inside Indiana is a little easier since the wabash network is palpable and most prospectives know at least a little about the school and probably know several alums. You basically have to not only recruit the prospective but find the mentor who can convince the student that in spite of his initial skepticism, he can have a great experience at Wabash. THEN you have to play defense. I had a local (non-Indiana) prospective signed up ready to go but basically lost him to the constant ribbing he was getting in his high school locker room.

I hope you are right and the Raeburn family feels like they have a long term home here.  For BJ, I know it has to be hard to pass up another hc opportunity if it comes along. He's also got a great thing at wabash. Can we vote him a pay raise?

I know it's easy to think that our playoff run has ended two years in a row being outgunned by a purple. It also took whitewater three trips to Salem to bring home their first championship. Experience and cleaning up mental mistakes will help. These last two playoff runs can only help recruiting. I'd really be interested to know who the competition is for our top football prospects. If it moves beyond being franklin, depauw, etc and starts being Wheaton and the purples, then we've got a shot in the next few years of beating a purple.