FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

O/U - 2.5 wins for Allegheny in 2016

[ExTartanPlayer]

O/U - 2.5 wins for Allegheny in 2016

Under.

It's actually tempting to say "over" because several first-year coaches have had good success recently in the NCAC (Watts at OWU, Colaprete at Wooster) but then you remember:

1) those guys walked into situations where there was clearly some talent on the team, including a very talented QB. 

2) Allegheny over the last three seasons has been the complete opposite of that situation.

2014 was a step forward from 2013, but then 2015 went back to being almost totally non-competitive against everyone.  Against their peers in the lower half of the NCAC standings they lost 28-13 against Wooster (trailed 21-0 after three quarters), 32-17 against Kenyon, 48-9 against Oberlin (trailed 36-2 after three quarters), and 43-13 against Hiram (trailed 40-6 after three quarters).  They gave up 690 yards to Oberlin, 541 yards to Hiram, and 487 yards to Kenyon.  Their leading rusher had 263 yards.  They had one player score more than 2 touchdowns.  Possibly most depressing, they did not lead a single game all season (after the opening 0-0's the only time they even tied a game during the season was 7-7 against Thiel in the season opener; they also scored to pull within 16-14 and 19-17 against Kenyon, but never actually tied the game).

This comes off like trashing last year's team, but that's not really the point; rather, it's to illustrate that this team struggled with absolutely everything last year, and there is a very long way to go for Allegheny to reach even "mediocre" status.  Sometimes you've got a team floating around with some clear strengths and it just needs to come together, but last year's team was a whole level removed from even the Oberlin and Kenyon stratum of the league.  3 wins this year will require a huge step forward.  Honestly, even "1-9 with two or three genuinely competitive losses" would be a huge step forward.

[Dr. Acula]

I'd take the under as well.  If he goes 2-8 this year I'd deem that a very successful first year given what he took over.

For the Wabash guys, I know he's a good coach.  How is he as a recruiter?  To me that's what will determine how quickly he rights the ship.  He just needs guys.  And he needs a lot of them.  The better he can recruit the faster he rebuilds that roster.  I wish him luck.  It just doesn't feel right for Allegheny to be bad in football.   

[sigma one]

Very successful recruiter at Wabash, and popular with his players. 

[bashbrother]

On the New Wabash Coaching Staff:

http://sports.wabash.edu/news/2016/8/1/morel-embraces-tradition-entering-2016-football-season.aspx?mobile=skip

[DPU3619]

O/U - 2.5 wins for Allegheny in 2016

Over. Thiel, Kenyon, Hiram.

[sigma one]

Looking at the Allegheny spring football roster, I notice that they list a total of seven offensive linemen, several of them very undersized.  Seven.  Some freshmen are likely going to play up front.  Also, a substantial omission: the leading tackler from the last two years, a rising junior linebacker, is not on the roster.  Probably didn't go overseas to study as a sophomore, and I don't recall that he was injured during last season..  He was the Gators best defensive player.  If he doesn't return, a quality player lost.
      Despite BJ's presence, I'll take the under.  I can't see them having the offensive firepower to challenge most teams in the league with the players they have coming back.  Defensively, they will improve because of BJ's scheme; by how much it will be interesting to see given the returning personnel.   This won't be Wabash talent responding to his defensive calls.   I hear that they think they have a good freshman class coming in, but you can't rely much on first years right away to make a substantial difference.  One or two wins would give his team a foundation and some confidence moving forward.  Just keeping the scores closer against a number of teams would be a vast improvement.   

[wally_wabash]

O/U - 2.5 wins for Allegheny in 2016

Over. Thiel, Kenyon, Hiram.

This is my lean as well. 

[Bombers798891]

Looking at the Allegheny spring football roster, I notice that they list a total of seven offensive linemen, several of them very undersized.  Seven.  Some freshmen are likely going to play up front.  Also, a substantial omission: the leading tackler from the last two years, a rising junior linebacker, is not on the roster.  Probably didn't go overseas to study as a sophomore, and I don't recall that he was injured during last season..  He was the Gators best defensive player.  If he doesn't return, a quality player lost.

The spring roster contains no seniors, though QB Jon Nigro is listed as a junior, and he is not. I would not extrapolate too much from its contents.

That being said, I'll take the under.

Look, you guys know the conference better than me. I'm scouting box scores. But this is a team that averaged 9 points and 200 yards of offense per game last year. They've graduated WR Tyler Smith, their best offensive player, who accounted for 7 of the team's 12 touchdowns, and was the team's leading rusher seven weeks into the season. They're hiring a coach whose expertise is on the defensive side of the ball—yes I know he was a head coach, but all his non-HC experience is defensive.

I just don't know how an offense like that can find three wins, even with a defense that should be able to help with some of that.

[sigma one]

The spring roster contained no seniors because it listed the players by their current classes.  So, Nigro was then a junior; he will be a senior this fall.  And so on.

[WooClone15]

I could maybe make this a general thread, but I thought I'd just post it in here and see what you guys thought. The AP listed the 100 best college football teams of all time, but based it on the AP polls so D3 schools weren't represented. If there was actually going to be a list of the 100 best college football programs, which D3 teams would make the list? I thought of St. John's, Witt, and Mount Union. I know there would be plenty more, but I know nothing about D3. I was also thinking Wabash, but I don't really know their history.

Here's the AP article http://collegefootball.ap.org/top-100

[wally_wabash]

I was also thinking Wabash, but I don't really know their history.

Pull up a chair, friend.   

[Bombers798891]

I could maybe make this a general thread, but I thought I'd just post it in here and see what you guys thought. The AP listed the 100 best college football teams of all time, but based it on the AP polls so D3 schools weren't represented. If there was actually going to be a list of the 100 best college football programs, which D3 teams would make the list? I thought of St. John's, Witt, and Mount Union. I know there would be plenty more, but I know nothing about D3. I was also thinking Wabash, but I don't really know their history.

Here's the AP article http://collegefootball.ap.org/top-100

It's kind of pointless to compare across divisions. Even forgetting the major differences in playoffs, etc. there's a bunch more teams, so even being Top 25 or having a bunch of All-americans is different in D-III. I mean, you could obviously put Mount in any conversation, but at the same time, Mount's so good that they create other problems for everyone else. How can we properly gauge how good other teams are on a championship scale when one team is so far ahead of everyone else?

[bashbrother]

Somewhat expected projection of finish in the NCAC Coaches pre-season voting.

http://northcoast.org/sports/fball/2016-17/releases/PreseasonPoll

I still believe that Depauw will finish in a solid second with a chance at a Pool C.    I also project this year's Bell Game will be much more of a battle.

We shall see.   The season could not come fast enough.   D3 Football will deliver a much needed distraction from the crazy World we currently find ourselves in.

[smedindy]

Ok, way back to the returning starter thing. The issue at times with the data is that they're usually loaded in based on the two-deeps published earlier in the week, and many schools don't take the time to update them during the game. Heck, some schools don't even do participation.

Where I'm at in D-2, it's a conference rule to have the starters corrected AND participation has to be done to determine redshirts, etc. But in D-3, a SID who is a one-man show with cross country, soccer, volleyball, etc. going on at the same time he/she may not have time to do anything.