FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[aueagle]

Big "D"
Is this the start of the new era...
Congrats to the Big Red

[aueagle]

Looking forward to this Saturday's slate of grid action...
Is there real Puppy Power...will it show in Springfield??
Can OWU keep up with the Black n Gold Tiger??
Does COW have a chance against the LG's??
Will the Gators find out football is real in Granville??

Does CC and his 5-2 EMU squad have a chance in hostile
Waldo Stadium and ranked WMU??

6 days until KO

[wally_wabash]

Today's top 25 is going to be interesting for the NCAC.  I don't think Denison is going from zero votes into the top 25.  That kind of leap just doesn't really happen unless your unranked, zero votes team knocks off somebody in the top 5 and even then, that kind of large jump probably only happens in the first few weeks of the season.  It's possible/probable here that Witt could fall out of the top 25 which may also drag Wabash out of the top 25 even though Wabash didn't lose this week.  DePauw should continue to receive zero votes just on general principle.   

[smedindy]

I think voters will cast ballots for several NCAC teams with none getting into the Top 25.

This is an interesting year for pollsters. Just when you think a team is on point (Dubuque), they lose pretty convincingly.

[HCAlum86]

Congrats to the Big Red! Terrific win

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think voters will cast ballots for several NCAC teams with none getting into the Top 25.

My guess, also.  But I would not be surprised if Wabash actually stays ranked while Witt drops out (which is stupid, but just the way people tend to "anchor" themselves and only drop teams that have actually lost that week, instead of consistently re-evaluating the whole picture).  In a fair world, Denison would be ranked higher than any of the other NCAC teams this week since they're undefeated and have beaten Witt, who has beaten both Wabash and DePauw.

Of course, this will all work itself out in a few weeks once the remaining h2h matchups have been played

[smedindy]

The NCAC usually gets little respect outside of Wabash and Witt - deservedly for the most part. That's why DPU struggled to get votes and Denison will, too.

I think the above is true for most conferences outside of the top six or so. It's why UW-SP got votes but if Bluffton goes 9-1 they won't. And Bluffton could definitely go 9-1.

[wally_wabash]

The NCAC usually gets little respect outside of Wabash and Witt - deservedly for the most part. That's why DPU struggled to get votes and Denison will, too.

I think the above is true for most conferences outside of the top six or so. It's why UW-SP got votes but if Bluffton goes 9-1 they won't. And Bluffton could definitely go 9-1.

It is HARD to break free from the reputational anchor that comes along with the NCAC.  It took Wabash over a decade to get to a place where voters would consider them for top 10/15 status.  That's a lot of conference championships and a lot of playoff wins and a lot of wins against other league champions (CCIW, ODAC, MIAA, HCAC, PAC) that had to get piled up.  It's a terrible thing that the league's best teams carry the burden of some of the league's worst teams, but that's the way it always has been.  I do hope enough voters give Denison due credit and get the Big Red near the top 25.  They earned that last night. 

[Dr. Acula]

Purdue canned Hazell today.  Perhaps they make a call to EMU and chat with CC?  They're in need of a major overhaul and who needed a bigger overhaul than EMU?  Of course, they supposedly have their eye on Les Miles.  Hilarious.   

[ExTartanPlayer]

The NCAC usually gets little respect outside of Wabash and Witt - deservedly for the most part. That's why DPU struggled to get votes and Denison will, too.

I think the above is true for most conferences outside of the top six or so. It's why UW-SP got votes but if Bluffton goes 9-1 they won't. And Bluffton could definitely go 9-1.

It is HARD to break free from the reputational anchor that comes along with the NCAC.  It took Wabash over a decade to get to a place where voters would consider them for top 10/15 status.  That's a lot of conference championships and a lot of playoff wins and a lot of wins against other league champions (CCIW, ODAC, MIAA, HCAC, PAC) that had to get piled up.  It's a terrible thing that the league's best teams carry the burden of some of the league's worst teams, but that's the way it always has been.  I do hope enough voters give Denison due credit and get the Big Red near the top 25.  They earned that last night.

Thought it would be interesting to look at a few other case studies of how "similar" teams have fared in the rankings over the years.  What I mean by that is teams from a league with no substantial playoff history (that's a tough concept to define, but what I mean is, if any WIAC or OAC or even NWC team beats their league's traditional monster and makes a run to the quarterfinals, they'll start the next season ranked high) that made a noticeable, and sustained, climb into perennial-playoff-contender territory.  How long did it take for those teams to start garnering regular, serious consideration from Top 25 voters?

Please, Wabash fans, take no offense to the programs being compared here

Franklin: 2006 was Franklin's first really good season (9-1, loss to MSJ).  2007 was their first HCAC title / playoff season (which included a two point loss at Wabash, who would finish 11-2 and in the sweet 16).  Their 2008 team went 11-2, with a regular season loss to MIAA champ Trine, and won a pair of playoff games (Otterbein and North Central) before a game loss to Wheaton.  Since then, they've maintained a fairly consistent hold on the HCAC title, are good for a playoff win every year or two, and they've shown a bit of a willingness to play-anyone-anywhere-anytime (multiple games with UWW and Mount).

How did the pollsters treat them during that time?  Well, let's start with the week 11 poll of 2006, they had zero votes (even 9-1 HCAC champ Mt. St. Joseph was also unranked, but receiving votes).  Seems reasonable; it was their first good year, and then MSJ lost in the first round of the playoffs that year.  They did get some votes in the 2007 preseason poll (#32 overall); by week 11 of 2007 they were ranked 16th.  They opened 2008 in the 21st slot of the preseason poll; they were ranked 18th in the week 11 poll from 2008.  Coming off a quarterfinal run, in the 2009 preseason poll, they were ranked...19th (not saying this is wrong - Franklin did take a step back in 2009 - just showing that Franklin pretty clearly bumped that glass-ceiling around the 15th spot where they were going to go no further in the rankings for awhile (even after beating both an OAC and a CCIW team in the 2008 playoffs).  In 2012, coming off a 2011 season where they went 10-2 with a playoff win and both losses coming against UWW, they started the season ranked 13th.  As wally says, once a reputation is in place, one or two or even three good years isn't going to get you into that top 15 without a couple of major pelts on the wall.

I might come back and update this post later...a couple other teams that would be interesting to check out, I think:

Thomas More

Johns Hopkins

St. John Fisher

Hobart

I've picked these teams because all loosely live in the same strata of Division III as Wabash - consistently winning programs over a full decade with multiple playoff appearances and at least one playoff W, but rarely/never made a deep enough impression in the playoffs that would provide automatic credibility (i.e. UWW could go 7-3 in 2012 and start 2013 ranked 9th because three straight national championships buys you the benefit of the doubt).  I'm not saying they're all on exactly the same footing, but if anyone wants to check out their first-couple-seasons-of-prominence and how they looked in preseason polls and after major W's, it might be an interesting discussion point.

[formerd3db]

Dr. Acula:

You know that everyone saw that coming, so it isn't much of a surprise other than they didn't wait until near the end of or after the season.  I think CC would be a good choice, however, IMO, P.J. Fleck of Western Michigan would most likely be ahead of CC in the "wish list" order.  Fleck isn't going to get one of the "super school" jobs (such as LSU, UCLA, etc.) but he will get a shot a one of the majors since he is already at the mid-major level and going anywhere else would be a lateral move (unless they offer him a ton of more $ than he is making at Western right now).  Les Miles certainly would be in the mix, however, I doubt Purdue would be able to (or even think about) giving him the kind of $ he will demand and was already making at LSU.  On the other hand, he doesn't really need it as he is rich already and he would probably jump at the chance to return to the Big Ten.  Were I making the choice, I would pass as I am not a fan of his at all for various reasons of past (mis)conduct.   All that said, it will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

As for Hazell, do you (and any others here) have an opinion as to where he might land?  Perhaps back in the MAC?

Another question is when do you all predict that Kelly will get canned at ND?  It will happen, but difficult to think of when.  He was a jerk at the post game press conference after their loss last night, but that isn't a surprise.

While we are on the topic of DI here, quite a game for Northwestern last evening, wasn't it?  Michigan State had their chances, however, it shows the perseverance of Fitzgerald's teams.  With a stroke of better luck, Northwestern could have been undefeated at this time as they   had great chances to win the games they lost at the beginning of this season.  Still, while Michigan is a very good team, they can't let down against Michigan State as I still believe the latter could beat them, especially since the game is at Michigan State.  Could it be a throwback to the "old days" when it came down to Michigan/Ohio State if that happens this year? Very possible, but...take one week at a time as that old and wise saying goes.

[wally_wabash]

I think voters will cast ballots for several NCAC teams with none getting into the Top 25.

My guess, also.  But I would not be surprised if Wabash actually stays ranked while Witt drops out (which is stupid, but just the way people tend to "anchor" themselves and only drop teams that have actually lost that week, instead of consistently re-evaluating the whole picture). In a fair world, Denison would be ranked higher than any of the other NCAC teams this week since they're undefeated and have beaten Witt, who has beaten both Wabash and DePauw.

Of course, this will all work itself out in a few weeks once the remaining h2h matchups have been played

Nailed it.  Wabash slides down one to 20 (lost 10 points), Witt is out, Denison does slide in at 24 which is cool.  Good for them. 

DePauw - Did not see them listed.   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[jmcozenlaw]

How does Coe jump from #32 last week (seventh in the Others Receiving Votes group.......with 17 points) to #18 this week, by beating the #21 team (Dubuque) by 11 points?

[smedindy]

There was a lot of carnage on the bottom of people's ballots. Four teams dropped out and ETBU slid. CMS was probably going to go into the Top 25 but they got blasted, too.

Coe was probably #26 or so on several ballots that didn't rank them, so they got the benefit of the wreckage.

[jmcozenlaw]

There was a lot of carnage on the bottom of people's ballots. Four teams dropped out and ETBU slid. CMS was probably going to go into the Top 25 but they got blasted, too.

Coe was probably #26 or so on several ballots that didn't rank them, so they got the benefit of the wreckage.

Thanks smedindy!!