FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

This program is doing tremendous and has proved me wrong time and time again this year, and they very well may do so again. In fact, I hope they do. They are well on their way to being a "top-o-the-conference" type of team for the foreseeable future. However, I just think it is unfair to apply the transitive logic of Denison beat Witt, Witt beat Bash, therefore, Denison beats Bash.

You don't need transitive property stuff here to believe in Denison. 
-They're 35th in total offense; 71st rush offense (187.7 ypg), 40th pass offense (286.8 ypg)...really nice balance
-30th in total defense
-7th in 3rd down %, 35th in 3rd down % defense...this team gets the ball back and keeps the ball when they have it which leads to...
-8th in TOP (34:32).  Now I usually poo poo the TOP stat because I don't think it's necessary to win (Franklin, Oshkosh, SJF, WashU...all having great years, all possess the ball 26 minutes or less per game, all in the bottom 16 in that category in D3), but it's a good sign of how Denison is really in total control of their games.  Everybody they play is playing to the tempo that Denison wants them to. 

And you need a star?  Canaan Gebele is your star and he touches the ball every play.  This cat leads the NCAC in rushing with over 100 ypg AND is 7th in D3 in total offense.  He's also scored more TDs than anybody else in the NCAC.  He completes 70.7 percent of his passes.  That's fourth in D3 and on over 30 attempts per game, so we're not working with limited sample sizes here.  And for as much as he handles the ball, he's got just three turnovers (1 INT, 2 lost fumbles).  Dudes, this is all-region stuff right here. 

None of this is cute or accidental after six games and a win against Wittenberg.  That Wittenberg win was skill and guts and none of the "the favorites turned the thing over seven times and got upset" that usually comes along with big upsets.  These guys are real, real good and absolutely have the chops to run the table.

Wally, I'm not familiar with Gebele. Given his numbers and his obvious smarts, does he become the next Joe Callahan (Wesley) and at least get a good luck from the NFL, if not actually making a roster?

Callahan was in another stratosphere compared to even the top 10% of D3 quarterbacks.  I don't know that Gebele has Callahan's arm strength and he definitely doesn't have Callahan's size.  I think for now it's enough to say that Gebele is one of the better QBs in the North region and then we'll see what happens over the next couple of years. 

[SaintsFAN]

Perhaps, jm, but Del Val's loss probably limits how high they would climb with a win at Stevenson.  I think the poll response there would be to see those teams come together somewhere around #20 as opposed to a complete position swap between Del Val and Stevenson.  Coe's big boost comes along with being undefeated and running the Wartburg/Central/Dubuque gauntlet.  That's not quite the Morningside/UWO/UWP stretch that UWW had earlier (still shocked more #1 votes didn't drift their way after that), but that's a pretty mean three-week run nonetheless. 

Also keep an eye on Wesley as we go along here.  A lot shine went off of the Wesley result for Del Val with their 1-2 start, but if they keep winning (possible, and a big game this weekend with Rowan) and end up winning the NJAC, Del Val should some residual poll inertia there.

Thanks Wally. Great points and logic (which I don't find much on the dying MAC board with bman, simba and PBR in the Witness Protection Program..........or out campaigning for Gary Johnson)

I watched the RPI/MIT game with LewDogg and Jonny "Utes" Utah here in Boston a few weeks ago and LD said PBR is living the Wisconsin-life with his bride.  Not sure what all that entails.

[jmcozenlaw]

Perhaps, jm, but Del Val's loss probably limits how high they would climb with a win at Stevenson.  I think the poll response there would be to see those teams come together somewhere around #20 as opposed to a complete position swap between Del Val and Stevenson.  Coe's big boost comes along with being undefeated and running the Wartburg/Central/Dubuque gauntlet.  That's not quite the Morningside/UWO/UWP stretch that UWW had earlier (still shocked more #1 votes didn't drift their way after that), but that's a pretty mean three-week run nonetheless. 

Also keep an eye on Wesley as we go along here.  A lot shine went off of the Wesley result for Del Val with their 1-2 start, but if they keep winning (possible, and a big game this weekend with Rowan) and end up winning the NJAC, Del Val should some residual poll inertia there.

Thanks Wally. Great points and logic (which I don't find much on the dying MAC board with bman, simba and PBR in the Witness Protection Program..........or out campaigning for Gary Johnson)

I watched the RPI/MIT game with LewDogg and Jonny "Utes" Utah here in Boston a few weeks ago and LD said PBR is living the Wisconsin-life with his bride.  Not sure what all that entails.

Thanks for the PBR update. Bman and simba remain missing. I always say that it's impossible to be too busy to spend a few minutes on the board each week. There is not a soul on the planet who doesn't have that time. Unlike a lot of you guys here on this (and other) boards, you've kept your interest and passion high.........while others have pretty much lost theirs. The reality of being a fan of a big D-1 school and being buried in your schools colors........and 99.4% of D-3 folks who lost whatever passion they had a year or two after graduation.

I proudly call myself a 0.6 percenter.................and not a deplorable either!

[wally_wabash]

I want to highlight a sequence in the Denison game.  Start of the 4th quarter, we're all on upset alert as Denison and Witt are tied 14-14.  Denison has possession and is driving:

4th and 5 at WITT22   Conor Dunn field goal attempt from 39 MISSED - wide left, spot at WITT22, clock 14:09.

Oh boy.  The underdog can't afford to leave those points out there.  Special teams gets these upsets done.   Still a lot of time left though.  Need a stop. 

1st and 10 at WITT22   Wittenberg drive start at 14:09.
1st and 10 at WITT22   Deshawn Sarley rush for 4 yards to the WITT26 (Zach Neufeld; David Heyer).
2nd and 6 at WITT26   Jake Kennedy sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WITT17 (Nate Keirn).
3rd and 15 at WITT17   Jake Kennedy sacked for loss of 2 yards to the WITT15 (Nate Keirn; Anthony Sernus).

Got a stop!  Upset alert is still on! 

4th and 17 at WITT15   Will Gingery punt 55 yards to the DEN30, David Carter return 0 yards to the DEN30, fumble by David Carter recovered by WITT Josh Link at DEN28.

Oh no.  Devastation.  Total gut punch.  The special teams goof that sets Witt up, at worst, in field goal range.  We know how this is going to end, don't we?  The scrappy underdog held serve for 50 minutes and this is where it ends.  Witt's going in to score, Denison is going panic and get picked off trying to force the tie and end up losing by two scores.  There's just no coming back from that missed FG-fumbled punt sequence. 

1st and 10 at DEN28   Wittenberg drive start at 12:39.
1st and 10 at DEN28   Jake Kennedy pass complete to Luke Bowling for 7 yards to the DEN21 (Ryan Zinkula; Alex Raynor).
2nd and 3 at DEN21   Jake Kennedy rush for no gain to the DEN21 (Zach Neufeld).
3rd and 3 at DEN21   Jake Kennedy pass complete to Luke Bowling for 11 yards to the DEN10 (Ryan Zinkula; Alex Raynor).
1st and Goal at DEN10   J. Washington rush for 4 yards to the DEN06, fumble by J. Washington recovered by DEN Andrew Baird at DEN06, fumble forced by Zach Neufeld.

What's this?!  The sudden change response red zone turnover!  Incredible!  This- this is what really good teams do.  I didn't know at this point if Denison was going to win the game, but this is the point when I knew this outfit was legit.  All of the guts right there backed up against the goal line. 

Almost as amazing as that turnover was Denison going 94 yards in 8 plays to score.  Witt would score again and tie, but after that Denison TD, and the way they had been able to move it all game, it looked like Denison was going to have the opportunity to control the rest of the game and either get to OT or kick/score at the end of the game to win, which they did.  But that red zone forced fumble...that's the stuff. 

[jmcozenlaw]

I want to highlight a sequence in the Denison game.  Start of the 4th quarter, we're all on upset alert as Denison and Witt are tied 14-14.  Denison has possession and is driving:

4th and 5 at WITT22   Conor Dunn field goal attempt from 39 MISSED - wide left, spot at WITT22, clock 14:09.

Oh boy.  The underdog can't afford to leave those points out there.  Special teams gets these upsets done.   Still a lot of time left though.  Need a stop. 

1st and 10 at WITT22   Wittenberg drive start at 14:09.
1st and 10 at WITT22   Deshawn Sarley rush for 4 yards to the WITT26 (Zach Neufeld; David Heyer).
2nd and 6 at WITT26   Jake Kennedy sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WITT17 (Nate Keirn).
3rd and 15 at WITT17   Jake Kennedy sacked for loss of 2 yards to the WITT15 (Nate Keirn; Anthony Sernus).

Got a stop!  Upset alert is still on! 

4th and 17 at WITT15   Will Gingery punt 55 yards to the DEN30, David Carter return 0 yards to the DEN30, fumble by David Carter recovered by WITT Josh Link at DEN28.

Oh no.  Devastation.  Total gut punch.  The special teams goof that sets Witt up, at worst, in field goal range.  We know how this is going to end, don't we?  The scrappy underdog held serve for 50 minutes and this is where it ends.  Witt's going in to score, Denison is going panic and get picked off trying to force the tie and end up losing by two scores.  There's just no coming back from that missed FG-fumbled punt sequence. 

1st and 10 at DEN28   Wittenberg drive start at 12:39.
1st and 10 at DEN28   Jake Kennedy pass complete to Luke Bowling for 7 yards to the DEN21 (Ryan Zinkula; Alex Raynor).
2nd and 3 at DEN21   Jake Kennedy rush for no gain to the DEN21 (Zach Neufeld).
3rd and 3 at DEN21   Jake Kennedy pass complete to Luke Bowling for 11 yards to the DEN10 (Ryan Zinkula; Alex Raynor).
1st and Goal at DEN10   J. Washington rush for 4 yards to the DEN06, fumble by J. Washington recovered by DEN Andrew Baird at DEN06, fumble forced by Zach Neufeld.

What's this?!  The sudden change response red zone turnover!  Incredible!  This- this is what really good teams do.  I didn't know at this point if Denison was going to win the game, but this is the point when I knew this outfit was legit.  All of the guts right there backed up against the goal line. 

Almost as amazing as that turnover was Denison going 94 yards in 8 plays to score.  Witt would score again and tie, but after that Denison TD, and the way they had been able to move it all game, it looked like Denison was going to have the opportunity to control the rest of the game and either get to OT or kick/score at the end of the game to win, which they did.  But that red zone forced fumble...that's the stuff.

We need a few "Wally's" over on the MAC board. I'm jealous!!

[HCAlum86]

I want to highlight a sequence in the Denison game.  Start of the 4th quarter, we're all on upset alert as Denison and Witt are tied 14-14.  Denison has possession and is driving:

4th and 5 at WITT22   Conor Dunn field goal attempt from 39 MISSED - wide left, spot at WITT22, clock 14:09.

Oh boy.  The underdog can't afford to leave those points out there.  Special teams gets these upsets done.   Still a lot of time left though.  Need a stop. 

1st and 10 at WITT22   Wittenberg drive start at 14:09.
1st and 10 at WITT22   Deshawn Sarley rush for 4 yards to the WITT26 (Zach Neufeld; David Heyer).
2nd and 6 at WITT26   Jake Kennedy sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WITT17 (Nate Keirn).
3rd and 15 at WITT17   Jake Kennedy sacked for loss of 2 yards to the WITT15 (Nate Keirn; Anthony Sernus).

Got a stop!  Upset alert is still on! 

4th and 17 at WITT15   Will Gingery punt 55 yards to the DEN30, David Carter return 0 yards to the DEN30, fumble by David Carter recovered by WITT Josh Link at DEN28.

Oh no.  Devastation.  Total gut punch.  The special teams goof that sets Witt up, at worst, in field goal range.  We know how this is going to end, don't we?  The scrappy underdog held serve for 50 minutes and this is where it ends.  Witt's going in to score, Denison is going panic and get picked off trying to force the tie and end up losing by two scores.  There's just no coming back from that missed FG-fumbled punt sequence. 

1st and 10 at DEN28   Wittenberg drive start at 12:39.
1st and 10 at DEN28   Jake Kennedy pass complete to Luke Bowling for 7 yards to the DEN21 (Ryan Zinkula; Alex Raynor).
2nd and 3 at DEN21   Jake Kennedy rush for no gain to the DEN21 (Zach Neufeld).
3rd and 3 at DEN21   Jake Kennedy pass complete to Luke Bowling for 11 yards to the DEN10 (Ryan Zinkula; Alex Raynor).
1st and Goal at DEN10   J. Washington rush for 4 yards to the DEN06, fumble by J. Washington recovered by DEN Andrew Baird at DEN06, fumble forced by Zach Neufeld.

What's this?!  The sudden change response red zone turnover!  Incredible!  This- this is what really good teams do.  I didn't know at this point if Denison was going to win the game, but this is the point when I knew this outfit was legit.  All of the guts right there backed up against the goal line. 

Almost as amazing as that turnover was Denison going 94 yards in 8 plays to score.  Witt would score again and tie, but after that Denison TD, and the way they had been able to move it all game, it looked like Denison was going to have the opportunity to control the rest of the game and either get to OT or kick/score at the end of the game to win, which they did.  But that red zone forced fumble...that's the stuff.

Great post, Wally... If I had a dollar for every time I've bet on an underdog on the moneyline... Third quarter = underdog winning.... Muffed punt return to start the fourth = the wheels fall off and I cry myself to sleep.

It is telling, not only talent-wise, but also in the mentality of the Big Red. Perhaps I failed to realize that.

[wally_wabash]

It is telling, not only talent-wise, but also in the mentality of the Big Red. Perhaps I failed to realize that.

I promise I'm going to move past this game soon, but I've got one good Denison story to share which is really relevant given Saturday's results.  When I talked to Coach Hatem for the Kickoff preview capsule, I got all of the information on returning starters, newcomers to look for, etc.  You know, all of the stuff that we jam pack into 250 words for the publication.  This wasn't in the capsule, but I pointed out that Denison had reached a place where their baseline is 6-7 wins- that they've gotten consistently good enough that they're predictably better than all but Witt/Wabash/DePauw in the league.  Out of curiosity, I asked Coach Hatem what he thought Denison needed to do to get beyond that 7-win barrier and get a win against those teams and push for a conference championship and/or a playoff spot.  I expected something like "more consistency on the DL" or "more production from RB" or some position-specific coachspeak.  But his answer was perfect.  He told me that he felt that he had the players- that his team was good enough to beat those teams and that the hardest and only step left for them to take was to actually clear that mental hurdle of beating a team that you've never beaten (ever in NCAC play vs. Wabash, no wins vs. Witt for 27 years, etc.).  These are trends so long and so expected that really, actually believing you can do it maybe doesn't happen until you actually do it, if that makes sense. 

In any case, now they've done it.  It'll be interesting to see if that win bolsters the team's confidence enough to finish the deal in the conference (after Wabash got a similarly giant program win in 2002 vs. Witt, the LGs took off..nothing but beatdowns until the Witt rematch in the tournament).  Regardless of what happens over the last four weeks here, Denison has shattered the barrier between themselves and the traditional top of the conference, which is a big deal- and one that Coach Hatem had pegged down before the season started. 

[wally_wabash]

I don't have a whole lot to say as a prologue to this week's games.  Just one thing.

DePauw is 1-3 vs. OWU in NCAC play.  That is all. 

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Go OWU.

[wally world]

Haven't scrolled through all the posts, but just noticed Chris Creighton has EMU at 5-2? And one of those losses is to SEC member Mizzou. Impressive turnaround. Took a few years.

Meanwhile, Savannah State taking its lumps.

[USee]

Gabele not playing for Denison? They lead the Gators 21-7 in 2nd qtr

[USee]

In Greencastle

OWU 34
Depauw 15

7min to go in the 4th

[USee]

Final in Greencastle

OWU 37
Depauw 15

Depauw was shut out in the second half at home.

[smedindy]

It looks like a *fun* week all over D3. Some upsets and some games too close for comfort.

I'll admit, I'm not used to seeing Denison in the upper part of the D3 scoreboard (where the Top 25 goes).

[wally_wabash]

Looks like we'll both be playing for pride next month -- keep plugging away at the cupcakes today.

NOW you can pull the rip cord. 

Final in Greencastle

OWU 37
Depauw 15

Depauw was shut out in the second half at home.

While DePauw losing to OWU (again) is ha-ha funny from the rivalry POV, from the at-large scenario POV it's a terrible, terrible result for Wabash.  8-2 DePauw had a chance to be regionally ranked, something Wabash desperately needs to bolster their at-large profile.  At 7-3 (or 6-4, tbh), there's no chance**.  LGs still have three tough games to get through here before any of that matters, but if Wabash does get to the clubhouse at 9-1, today's result in Greencastle is not a helper. 

** Just to clarify- DPU going 7-3 or 6-4 means there's no chance they'll be ranked, not that there's no chance Wabash can receive an at-large invitation.  Just that DPU being ranked would have helped a great deal.  Hopefully didn't alarm Wabash fans too much out there.