FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[ExTartanPlayer]

Too bad that Denison lost (nothing against Wabash, but I was rooting for them since I also went to an Ohio school, and there's so many of you on here). Also, good win for Wooster today that means at worst they'll finish the season 4-6. It isn't much, but it's a lot better then the 1-2 wins that were predicted at the beginning of the year

Not to be trivialized at all.  Small steps forward are better than no steps forward.  Teams that finish 4-6 or 5-5 with a little momentum can definitely carry that forward.

[Wabash1]

Wabash would look good in some uniforms like NC State is wearing tonight! Good win today didn't care for the conservative play calling in the second half on both sides of the ball for Wabash. Dennison played their guts out kudos to the Big Red.

[WooClone15]

Too bad that Denison lost (nothing against Wabash, but I was rooting for them since I also went to an Ohio school, and there's so many of you on here). Also, good win for Wooster today that means at worst they'll finish the season 4-6. It isn't much, but it's a lot better then the 1-2 wins that were predicted at the beginning of the year

Not to be trivialized at all.  Small steps forward are better than no steps forward.  Teams that finish 4-6 or 5-5 with a little momentum can definitely carry that forward.

True, especially when Wooster will have almost everything returning next year

[smedindy]

Some good thing happened on Wabash's "C" front. I think the NJAC is out unless the East ranks up Frostburg. ETBU is probably eliminated.

St. Lawrence lost, though, and now if they get past a WPI that has lost their three games by 10 points, total, they will have one loss with a bad SOS. Wabash may not have the RR win if Denison slips out (I doubt it, but you never know). The RR win will help them against St. Lawrence.

Wallies will want to root for Concorida-Moorhead over St. John's. That'll give both C-M and the Johnnies two losses, and puts them in the 2-loss crew with Platteville. We also should root for Alfred over St. John Fisher, to give SJF two losses (though SJF's SOS will be quite higher). Also, rooting for Mt. Union to put one on JCU would help. A very close loss would help John Carroll and keep them above Wabash in the rankings.

The best upset for Wabash would be a Hanover win over Franklin. Franklin will have a 1-1 RR record, and depending on how the SOS plays out (Wabash's will increase and Franklin's decrease), that win over Thomas More will help the Grizz ESPECIALLY if Denison some how falls out of the RRs. Let's hope the Big Red takes care of business against the Lords.

Of course, Wabash needs to retain the Bell. Good things happen when Wabash has that prize.

[HCAlum86]

What are the odds of Witt picking up an at-large berth? My apologies if someone already noted this.

[wally_wabash]

What are the odds of Witt picking up an at-large berth? My apologies if someone already noted this.

Zero.  If they win next week against Allegheny, they'll be the league's AQ.  If they lose, they'll drop too far behind, if not completely out of the rankings, to get a bid. 

[WooClone15]

What are the odds of Witt picking up an at-large berth? My apologies if someone already noted this.

Zero.  If they win next week against Allegheny, they'll be the league's AQ.  If they lose, they'll drop too far behind, if not completely out of the rankings, to get a bid. 

But Wabash could still get in right? So it would be possible to have 2 teams in? Also, how many teams come from the C pool? It looked like they were split up regionally, so is it just one per region?

[WooClone15]

Earlham Head Coach Nick Johnson and his (& wife) story is on right now on
GAME DAY......awesome

I just watched it, that was incredible. He's one of my favorite coaches now and I'll be cheering for him to succeed.

Here's the link for people that want to watch it: http://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/17974494

[wally_wabash]

What are the odds of Witt picking up an at-large berth? My apologies if someone already noted this.

Zero.  If they win next week against Allegheny, they'll be the league's AQ.  If they lose, they'll drop too far behind, if not completely out of the rankings, to get a bid. 

But Wabash could still get in right? So it would be possible to have 2 teams in? Also, how many teams come from the C pool? It looked like they were split up regionally, so is it just one per region?

Yes, but Wabash needs to get some support from the North regional advisory committee.  Last week Wabash was ranked behind Wheaton, John Carroll, and Franklin in the North region.  Beating Denison will help, but there are some other things outside of Wabash's control at the moment- namely, the placement of John Carroll and Franklin, two other at-large candidates from the region (we're going to assume that Wheaton beats Carroll this week and remains the top-ranked at-large team in the region). 

There are seven at-large bids in total, but one of them is reserved for teams that play in leagues that don't get automatic bids (ASC, SCAC) or independents.  That bid is going to UMHB.  The other six are available for everybody else who didn't qualify automatically by winning their league.  Definitely check out the Pool C board, where myself and many others get way, way deep in the weeds on this topic. 

[WooClone15]

What are the odds of Witt picking up an at-large berth? My apologies if someone already noted this.

Zero.  If they win next week against Allegheny, they'll be the league's AQ.  If they lose, they'll drop too far behind, if not completely out of the rankings, to get a bid. 

But Wabash could still get in right? So it would be possible to have 2 teams in? Also, how many teams come from the C pool? It looked like they were split up regionally, so is it just one per region?

Yes, but Wabash needs to get some support from the North regional advisory committee.  Last week Wabash was ranked behind Wheaton, John Carroll, and Franklin in the North region.  Beating Denison will help, but there are some other things outside of Wabash's control at the moment- namely, the placement of John Carroll and Franklin, two other at-large candidates from the region (we're going to assume that Wheaton beats Carroll this week and remains the top-ranked at-large team in the region). 

There are seven at-large bids in total, but one of them is reserved for teams that play in leagues that don't get automatic bids (ASC, SCAC) or independents.  That bid is going to UMHB.  The other six are available for everybody else who didn't qualify automatically by winning their league.  Definitely check out the Pool C board, where myself and many others get way, way deep in the weeds on this topic.

Thanks Wally, that's super helpful. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Wally has spent more time trying to understand and explain the Pool C process than some people put into their doctoral dissertations.  It's his magnum opus.

[sigma one]

From the point of view of many observers, Wabash has been very conservative offensively through 2016--and particularly in the second half of games when they've held a multi-score lead.  One reason for this might be injuries on the offensive line.  In the nine games played so far, according to the Box Score participation report (which is not always completely accurate, I know), the LGs have started the same offensive line position by position in only two games, and these back to back vs. Hiram and Oberlin in the middle of the season.  In the other seven games the LGs have started seven different offensive line configurations.  They have started  4 players at left tackle, 4 at left guard, 5 at right guard, and 4 at right tackle.  Only at center has the same player started every game. 
     This has to be pretty darn unusual, and maybe unique, and I can't think that this can be a recipe for continuing success--or continuing offensive confidence.  On the plus side, the LGs have only 2 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles.  And, of course, they are 8-1. 
     So, the prevailing strategy has been to jump out to a substantial lead and then in the second half to play field position behind a good punting game and an outstanding defense, to milk the clock, and to play mistake free football.  That almost backfired last week v. Denison. 
     One big question for this week:   if necessary, can this style of play succeed  v. DPU.  Can Wabash jump out to a substantial lead and then play the same way against a potent Tiger offense in the second half.  Relatedly, will Wabash choose the same approach they have been employing or will they open up their offense and keep it open.
     Last week along the o-line Wabash got back two important starters who had missed multiple weeks, and also lost a player who had been pretty consistent at left guard.  Who will they have this week?  How much difference will those returning starters make?  What approach will Wabash employ?  We know the DPU will continue to do what they have done, successfully for the most part, all year, so no surprises there. 

[sigma one]

Probably lost in the election-night doings, Chris Creighton's Eastern Michigan team defeated Ball State last night to achieve win #6 on the season and become Bowl Eligible.  Who would have thunk it.

[HCAlum86]

Probably lost in the election-night doings, Chris Creighton's Eastern Michigan team defeated Ball State last night to achieve win #6 on the season and become Bowl Eligible.  Who would have thunk it.

Started off down 21-0 too

[wally_wabash]

Rankings:

NORTH   
1 Mount Union 9-0 9-0
2 North Central (Illinois) 7-0 9-0
3 Wheaton (Illinois) 8-1 8-1
4 John Carroll 8-1 8-1
5 Olivet 8-1 8-1
6 Wittenberg 8-1 8-1
7 Wabash 8-1 8-1
8 Rose-Hulman 7-2 7-2
9 Franklin 7-1 7-2
10 Illinois Wesleyan 6-2 6-2


Really, really, really good news for Wabash.  Hopping Franklin was a necessary move that I honestly wasn't sure was going to happen. 

So it's down to this: Beating DePauw coupled with a JCU loss to Mount Union and Wabash is probably going to at least get into the conversation on Saturday night.  I don't know if they'll get in, but they'll have a shot.