FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

All good points, Bombers, which is why I wanted to talk about it.  I'm generally in agreement about being aggressive in that area of the field and using all of the downs at your disposal, but I think I still prefer to have the lead in the 4th quarter of a football game than not having a lead in the 4th quarter.  I think I also would have been more comfortable with that choice (going for it) in that position if Wabash were running out the 2015 defense and I thought there was a good chance that unit could get a score or be otherwise incredibly disruptive.  Saturday's defense gave up long TDs of 72, 56, and 42 yards.  The Scots were in scoring position from anywhere on the field, tbh (this will be a significant concern in every single game Wabash plays the rest of the year). 

[smedindy]

I'm for the bold play call on 4th down. I'd be more pleased if it was on 3rd down. Don't be predictable on 3rd and 4th down at the goal line unless you have a manster line and can just bowl people over - and even then you need to put someone in motion or something.

[smedindy]

In the 4th quarter, heck, even late in the 3rd, I'd rather have someone have to score a TD to beat you. So going for it was good in my view. At 28-27, I feel 30-28 makes it a lot easier for Wooster to play for a FG.

If they miss on 4th, they still have 96 yards or so to go and a FG only makes it 31-27.

[wally_wabash]

In the 4th quarter, heck, even late in the 3rd, I'd rather have someone have to score a TD to beat you. So going for it was good in my view. At 28-27, I feel 30-28 makes it a lot easier for Wooster to play for a FG.

I don't think the team that is trailing by 1 in the 4th quarter gets to be choosy about what the other team might need to beat you.  There's a point in the game where being ahead by any means necessary is preferable to manicuring the game's in-a-perfect-world denouement.   

This is all for funsies because it worked out.  But what's the narrative in this space over the last 48 hours if that 4th and G pass gets broken up and Wabash ends up losing the game 28-27?  Like, think about that.  Wabash could have lost a game this weekend because they decided against kicking a 25-yard FG in the fourth quarter.  I think that's a bigger deal than we realize. 

[Bombers798891]

This is all for funsies because it worked out.  But what's the narrative in this space over the last 48 hours if that 4th and G pass gets broken up and Wabash ends up losing the game 28-27?  Like, think about that.  Wabash could have lost a game this weekend because they decided against kicking a 25-yard FG in the fourth quarter.  I think that's a bigger deal than we realize. 

But you're acting like:

1. A FG is a lock—I mean, they probably make it. But they could miss
2. They did this with two minutes to go. There's almost no scenario in which, if they miss on 4th, they don't get the ball back. And if they get a quick stop, they probably get it back around midfield, at worst.

[HCAlum86]

Definitely a tough result for the Terriers.  40 is supposed to be enough to win.  Any word on Randy Tucker?  I hope he's ok too.  Sounds like it was a tough week for QBs around the league.

Nothing yet re: Randy.

We NEED him to have any shot against OWU/Wooster and he'd certainly be a lift against Oberlin and Kenyon

[wally_wabash]

This is all for funsies because it worked out.  But what's the narrative in this space over the last 48 hours if that 4th and G pass gets broken up and Wabash ends up losing the game 28-27?  Like, think about that.  Wabash could have lost a game this weekend because they decided against kicking a 25-yard FG in the fourth quarter.  I think that's a bigger deal than we realize. 

But you're acting like:

1. A FG is a lock—I mean, they probably make it. But they could miss
2. They did this with two minutes to go. There's almost no scenario in which, if they miss on 4th, they don't get the ball back. And if they get a quick stop, they probably get it back around midfield, at worst.

Nehrig is 18-19 on PATs and 22-23 on placekicks under 35 yards this season.  Certainly, the make was not guaranteed, but that's a 95% play based on this year's performance.  I don't think the 4th down play has a 95% success rate.  And I do think that there is a lot of unrecognized value here in having the lead in the game's final 2-3 possessions as opposed to playing from behind in that same stretch. 

Also Wabash can't count on having good field position after forcing a punt.  Wabash has developed an absurd tendency to just not field punts and give up whatever bounce and roll comes from it.  That's not just this year and that's not just post-ER.  This has been happening with increasing frequency for a number of years.  Wooster had a 78-yard punt downed at the 1 yard line on Saturday because Wabash doesn't catch punts in the air.  It's not always 78 yards, but Wabash forfeits good field position at least twice per game because of this habit. 

[Bombers798891]

This is all for funsies because it worked out.  But what's the narrative in this space over the last 48 hours if that 4th and G pass gets broken up and Wabash ends up losing the game 28-27?  Like, think about that.  Wabash could have lost a game this weekend because they decided against kicking a 25-yard FG in the fourth quarter.  I think that's a bigger deal than we realize. 

But you're acting like:

1. A FG is a lock—I mean, they probably make it. But they could miss
2. They did this with two minutes to go. There's almost no scenario in which, if they miss on 4th, they don't get the ball back. And if they get a quick stop, they probably get it back around midfield, at worst.

Nehrig is 18-19 on PATs and 22-23 on placekicks under 35 yards this season.  Certainly, the make was not guaranteed, but that's a 95% play based on this year's performance.  I don't think the 4th down play has a 95% success rate.  And I do think that there is a lot of unrecognized value here in having the lead in the game's final 2-3 possessions as opposed to playing from behind in that same stretch. 

Also Wabash can't count on having good field position after forcing a punt.  Wabash has developed an absurd tendency to just not field punts and give up whatever bounce and roll comes from it.  That's not just this year and that's not just post-ER.  This has been happening with increasing frequency for a number of years.  Wooster had a 78-yard punt downed at the 1 yard line on Saturday because Wabash doesn't catch punts in the air.  It's not always 78 yards, but Wabash forfeits good field position at least twice per game because of this habit.

I'd need to see that punt to judge. I don't want my punt returner racing around and risking a muff, that much I know

[smedindy]

In the 4th quarter, heck, even late in the 3rd, I'd rather have someone have to score a TD to beat you. So going for it was good in my view. At 28-27, I feel 30-28 makes it a lot easier for Wooster to play for a FG.

I don't think the team that is trailing by 1 in the 4th quarter gets to be choosy about what the other team might need to beat you.  There's a point in the game where being ahead by any means necessary is preferable to manicuring the game's in-a-perfect-world denouement.   

This is all for funsies because it worked out.  But what's the narrative in this space over the last 48 hours if that 4th and G pass gets broken up and Wabash ends up losing the game 28-27?  Like, think about that.  Wabash could have lost a game this weekend because they decided against kicking a 25-yard FG in the fourth quarter.  I think that's a bigger deal than we realize.

Coaches play safe too many times. The expected value of going for it is higher than kicking the figgy, even if not getting the TD. I don't think coaches understand higher level probability very often, but I believe in the math and not 'momentum'. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

In the 4th quarter, heck, even late in the 3rd, I'd rather have someone have to score a TD to beat you. So going for it was good in my view. At 28-27, I feel 30-28 makes it a lot easier for Wooster to play for a FG.

I don't think the team that is trailing by 1 in the 4th quarter gets to be choosy about what the other team might need to beat you.  There's a point in the game where being ahead by any means necessary is preferable to manicuring the game's in-a-perfect-world denouement.   

This is all for funsies because it worked out.  But what's the narrative in this space over the last 48 hours if that 4th and G pass gets broken up and Wabash ends up losing the game 28-27?  Like, think about that.  Wabash could have lost a game this weekend because they decided against kicking a 25-yard FG in the fourth quarter.  I think that's a bigger deal than we realize.

Coaches play safe too many times. The expected value of going for it is higher than kicking the figgy, even if not getting the TD. I don't think coaches understand higher level probability very often, but I believe in the math and not 'momentum'.

A statistician/sports fan published a study (I believe it was entitled "4th and Go For It") demonstrating just that.  I think the 3rd down call was highly questionable, but the 4th down call was absolutely correct.

[smedindy]

I'm totally an advocate of some team with nothing to lose that's reasonable on offense eschewing punts all together. No punts. Go for it every time. I know there's a HS in Arkansas that does it and wins games (or used to, as it was in the TMQ when I read it). FGs too.

Why not Hiram?

[kraken]

I'm totally an advocate of some team with nothing to lose that's reasonable on offense eschewing punts all together. No punts. Go for it every time. I know there's a HS in Arkansas that does it and wins games (or used to, as it was in the TMQ when I read it). FGs too.

Why not Hiram?

Yes! Why not Hiram? By the way, that same Arkansas HS coach also onside kicks after every score.

[Li'l Giant]

Yes! Why not Hiram? By the way, that same Arkansas HS coach also onside kicks after every score.

I remember seeing some news story about that coach. It seems like the football version of Grinnell's basketball system.

[DPU3619]

Yes! Why not Hiram? By the way, that same Arkansas HS coach also onside kicks after every score.

I remember seeing some news story about that coach. It seems like the football version of Grinnell's basketball system.

He's also got a ton of D1 studs to make stops after they don't convert. It helps that whole system work when you make stops.

I realize what the data says. I'm 100% on board with the concept on paper. But giving up 60+ each week because you turn it over on downs 7 times in your own end is a real good way to get fired. There's a bit of self-preservation in punting, too.

[BashBacker#16]

Old Pal Wes,

Where is the Beech Grove QB if he's so amazing?