FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

Looks like there are Monon Bell parties scheduled:

https://www.wabash.edu/alumni/mononbell/

I remember trolling the regional Fox Sports networks for some interesting games when I had a dish. Missouri Valley women's hoops were really competitive....

[Pat Coleman]

Darrell was giving you guys a deal, then? What's the ballpark figure to put something like that together?

That's a bit of a leap, Pat.  Darrell had a long background (and national Emmys) in sports telecasts, and the Monon Bell game was the only game AXS was doing in recent years (when we first signed on in 2003 we were part of a "Great College Rivalry" series, since gone).  With no Darrell, putting this together (we had a crew of 53 last year) was more challenging.

Well, that's why I asked the question -- take it easy. If there's any chance you'd like to respond to the other half of the question, through PMs is fine. Just for my own education since people often ask about what it would take to put games on linear television.

[Li'l Giant]

I doubt that this post will win very many popularity points in these parts, but hear me out, if for no other reason than to see a dissenting opinion that comes from outside the Wabash echo chamber:

(please note that this does not deal with any other "administrative" issues, such as those raised by wabco regarding changes to the gameday experience; it is strictly an "on the field results" post)

Much of the wailing and gnashing of teeth seems to come from the perception that under Erik Raeburn the Wabash team had risen to a level where they were just a hair away from cracking the truly ELITE tier of Division III, and that the team has significantly regressed in the past 16 games since the coaching change.  With a pair of quarterfinal appearances in ER's tenure, I understand why that perception exists - but I also think it's a little off base.

Here's Part 1 of my counterpoint: are we really sure that Wabash was ever that close to breaking into that stratum of the division?  The 2011 team pulled out a remarkable win against North Central and fell behind 20-0 against Mount Union in the quarters before adding a few late points for a 20-8 final.  The 2014 team kept it close for a half with UWW thanks in large part to a blocked field goal return for TD; but they fell behind 38-7 early in the fourth and didn't score an offensive TD for the first 57 minutes of the game.  The 2015 team took a similar beating from St. Thomas (no offensive points until they trailed 38-0 in the fourth quarter).  None of that is any reason for shame - there are only a handful of teams around the division that have fared better against that level of competition - but it's merely to point out that the "high water" mark of Wabash football under Erik Raeburn might not have been quite as high as it feels, looking back today.  In their best seasons, Wabash was a very, very good team that was never all that close to being a genuine threat to the top-5 level.  Wabash played a nationally-elite program three times, got curb-stomped twice and scored zero offensive touchdowns while any of the three games were actually within reach.

Here's Part 2 of my counterpoint: stripping away any other "intangible" factors like "they charge us more money for tickets now" and just looking at on-field results...it is entirely within the bounds of possibility that the results in the last 16 games would have been similar with Raeburn coaching (ducks to avoid onslaught of tomatoes being thrown at the stage).  The 2016 season was an 8-2 season with a 10-point loss to Wittenberg (ER career record against Witt: 4-4) and one of the best Bell finishes of all time, authored by a guy with 8,659 career passing yards for the other guys.  The last time Wabash played in the quarterfinals (2011) - the next season was an 8-2 season with losses to Allegheny and Oberlin (yes, I know that Oberlin team had some real dudes and treated the game like the Super Bowl...couldn't you say the same about DePauw last year?) and they did not return to the playoffs for another season after that.

I understand that there are structural concerns (off the field) and that the on-field product is not just a W's-and-L's concern, but "we gave up too many points to Wooster and Hiram and our offense looks bad" concern, and hey, I haven't actually seen them play live, as some of you have.  I am merely pointing out that, on the heels of a high-water-mark 2015 season that ended in the quarterfinals (with the team's all-time leading rusher and a pile of defensive stalwarts graduating) that a little regression in 2016 was a fairly unsurprising outcome, and that a 13-3 record for the next sixteen games was well within the range of possible outcomes that could have occurred under the old administration as well.

There's a lot to unpack here and I'm not going to go point by point or anything. I'll address the two big ones.

First, I don't think any of us are saying we were just a hair away from being top tier. I think we all agree that Wabash's season ceiling during 2001-2015 (carefully chosen years) was "Win a conference title, go 10-0, lose in the Quarterfinals". And I'll tell you, I'm okay with that. Not everyone can be top tier. And while I'd love to see that, I was perfectly happy with that being our ceiling. Being among the top 8-12 teams in D3 isn't bad. And it's a lot better than what we were pre-2001.

Second, is it possible we'd still be regressing with ER? Sure, but what we're seeing isn't the inherent randomness in football games or the cycle of recuriting. Yeah, there were some head-scratching losses during both CC and ER's tenures. But here's the thing. We aren't wondering what's happening here. We know.

When CC and ER had a "bad loss", we knew, despite the occasional bad game that both CC and ER had high ceilings and would work to get back to that standard. And they did so. What do we really know now?

I'm not trying to shut you down or anything ETP. I appreciate the outsider perspective. Just saying I don't think we're as out of line as we might look from the outside.

[BashBacker#16]

LG,

Great post man!  Spot on.  I will add the head scratching losses were very few and far between with CC and ER.  And, for those saying we are 13-3 since ER left, let's wait and see how the Witt and Depauw games go - heck the rest of the year for that matters.  We don't have any gimme's.

Smeds - you just give me a headache.  Go start a swimming message board.

[smedindy]

Nah, just trying to make sure some people think critically, if not live humanely! 

I'd take 8-2 right now with a close loss to Witt; I have a feeling they're going to schmack down the New Tigers Saturday.

[wally_wabash]

Nah, just trying to make sure some people think critically, if not live humanely! 

I'd take 8-2 right now with a close loss to Witt; I have a feeling they're going to schmack down the New Tigers Saturday.

Why would you take that?  Who signs up for a guaranteed close loss to Wittenberg and calls that good enough?  Why should Wabash concede that Witt is untouchable?  Why should Wabash's fans concede that Witt (and the tournament) are untouchable?  It's not 1994.  A lot of people worked their tails off between 2001-2015 to put that only-game-that-matters-is-DePauw nonsense to bed.  It's so dumb to want to go back to that. 

[sigma one]

+k to both ETP and LG.  Two good perspectives.  From the point of view of Wabash fans, this is on its way, maybe more than half way, to becoming a disaster.  Beyond what we are seeing on the field, a reliable campus source tells me that the AD makes few appearances at the games and is often away from the department.  He has no true commitment to the college, was initially hired to take a look at how the athletic department conducts itself, and suddenly became the "interim" AD with no search.  The AD used to report to the Dean of Students as part of Student Life.  He now reports to the president, which could potentially be a good thing, but not necessarily with this president.

    The AD was hired to "modernize" athletics, and to take a hard look at athletics budgets. Academics should come first; everyone associated with Wabash knows that.  But don't kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.  Of the 250 freshmen Wabash tries to enroll each fall, as many as two-thirds are initially on an athletics team, and all of these have been recruited by coaches.  In contrast to the previous two presidents, this president, who will say the right things, doesn't really care one way of another about winning as long as the recruiting numbers hold up.  If they don't, I predict that in the eyes of the administration the coaches are no long good at recruiting.
     I want to be a glass is half full guy.  I want to believe that with almost all of the current coaches this can be fixed.  But I am having an increasingly hard time holding on to this thought.  I want to think that Witt and DPU are vulnerable this year, but not if the current lack of imagination, aggression, and enthusiasm continues.  I do believe that the talent is there, but it has to be used effectively.  One reason Morel was elevated is that he had support from the players.  He needs to hold onto or repair that support, whichever. 
     Four games remain.  Of course, we will know more on November 11 than we do now.  Wabash needs to win at least three of the final four; otherwise, I'll have to think the glass is empty. But no matter what happens, don't expect wholesale changes.   

[smedindy]

Nah, just trying to make sure some people think critically, if not live humanely! 

I'd take 8-2 right now with a close loss to Witt; I have a feeling they're going to schmack down the New Tigers Saturday.

Why would you take that?  Who signs up for a guaranteed close loss to Wittenberg and calls that good enough?  Why should Wabash concede that Witt is untouchable?  Why should Wabash's fans concede that Witt (and the tournament) are untouchable?  It's not 1994.  A lot of people worked their tails off between 2001-2015 to put that only-game-that-matters-is-DePauw nonsense to bed.  It's so dumb to want to go back to that.

This year...this year. I don't think Witt's approachable this year. Calm down.

I don't want 7-3 or 6-4. That's a recipe for doom.

And I want to leave no doubt next year. Gotta get a QB and give the ball to Ike.

[wally_wabash]

Nah, just trying to make sure some people think critically, if not live humanely! 

I'd take 8-2 right now with a close loss to Witt; I have a feeling they're going to schmack down the New Tigers Saturday.

Why would you take that?  Who signs up for a guaranteed close loss to Wittenberg and calls that good enough?  Why should Wabash concede that Witt is untouchable?  Why should Wabash's fans concede that Witt (and the tournament) are untouchable?  It's not 1994.  A lot of people worked their tails off between 2001-2015 to put that only-game-that-matters-is-DePauw nonsense to bed.  It's so dumb to want to go back to that.

This year...this year. I don't think Witt's approachable this year. Calm down.

I don't want 7-3 or 6-4. That's a recipe for doom.

And I want to leave no doubt next year. Gotta get a QB and give the ball to Ike.

Do you think Witt is regressing next year?  They've got a ton of new starters this year and two new coordinators.  Teams breaking in new coordinators don't get worse in Year 2 (with at least one notable exception).  Witt is building all manner of new, rad stuff on campus.  They're not going to get worse anytime soon.  This is a winnable year.  Next year?   Come off of it with that loveable loser Cubs garbage.  Wabash is better than that. 

Giving the ball to Ike James is not an offense.  Here's the sum total of Wabash's offensive playbook through six games in 2017:


That's not a college offense.  Ike James is the best player on the field 100% of the time, but at this level (yes, even in D-III), an average defense can defend the best player on the field if that offense is going to telegraph and stubbornly play 5-on-11.  That's how you get your offense shut out.  Knoche'd. 

[bashbrother]

Ike James is the best player on the field 100% of the time.

AGREE..... And he doesn't start the game on the field.    #CoachingGenius -   James is Morel's secret weapon every game... like no one knows he will be coming in.    Avant and the other backs are quality and offer a different look,   but they are not Ike James.   

Having Played and Coached Pee-Wee League Football,   where you have one really good player on offense and they get the ball every snap...  in a nut-shell,   that is the Wabash offense.   Sure they may pass a few times or run the fearsome JET SWEEP..  (err.. fumble)  But when they begin to struggle,   they immediately close up and   run delay right....  delay left.   That is what we have ladies and gentlemen.   

Anyone that:   1. knows football   2. Actually has been watching the Wabash games this season can see it.  I mean really watching it  (following Live stats is not watching)
   

[wally_wabash]

Ike James is the best player on the field 100% of the time.

AGREE..... And he doesn't start the game on the field.    #CoachingGenius -   James is Morel's secret weapon every game... like no one knows he will be coming in.    Avant and the other backs are quality and offer a different look,   but they are not Ike James.   

I actually don't mind this.  James gets most of the carries.  No one guy can carry the ball all of the time as much as Wabash runs it.  Of all of the things going on with Wabash's offense, this isn't the thing I think they need to spend time correcting.  Kind of reminds me of the Holmes/Zurek co-op in 2014.   

[smedindy]

I do admit it's predictable (back to the day of Kaiser left - Kaiser right), but our passing game gives no one fear and loathing. We need to develop that. That's what's missing - someone who can deliver the ball constantly to wide receivers down the field, and not always check down for short gains.

I think you're still misunderstanding me Wally. An 8-2 record, this year,  losing to Witt in a competitive game, isn't ideal, but I'll take it without pitchforks and torches. Any other loss would be less than ideal.

I guess my fear is that aside from Denison (and Kenyon), Wabash hasn't looked like a team that could stay with Witt for very long.

[sigma one]

Over on Pick-Ems Wally has Wabash as an 8.5 favorite at Oberlin. Wally is in general a very good handicapper.  Now, I don't want to denigrate Oberlin because the Yoemen have won two games and played DePauw to a 26-10 loss and Wooster within 10, but that's a big loss of confidence in the LGs.  I'm going to take Wabash, but I'm edgy.  Who would have thought at the beginning of the season, that this is where we would be  when we got this far? 
     

[smedindy]

When Oberlin beat Wabash in 2012, the spread was Wabash by 31 1/2. Seeing this close of a spread...well...if they don't cover it'll be more fuel to the fire.

[wally_wabash]

Over on Pick-Ems Wally has Wabash as an 8.5 favorite at Oberlin. Wally is in general a very good handicapper.  Now, I con't want to denigrate Oberlin because the Yoemen have won two games and played DePauw to a 26-10 loss and Wooster within 10, but that's a big loss of confidence in the LGs.  I'm going to take Wabash, but I'm edgy.  Who would have thought at the beginning of the season, that this is where we would be  when we got this far? 
     

Wabash could win on Saturday by 58 or lose by 10.  Neither would be a huge surprise based on the massive range that we've seen from the LGs this season. 

When Oberlin beat Wabash in 2012, the spread was Wabash by 31 1/2. Seeing this close of a spread...well...if they don't cover it'll be more fuel to the fire.

In 2012, Wabash went into that game on a five game win streak and back-to-back shutouts (remember shutouts?  Those were fun.).  The most recent of those shutouts was at Ohio Wesleyan- a 28-0 gem against an OWU team that scored 32 ppg in their other nine games that year, all of which they won, btw.  The prologue to Oberlin week couldn't be more different now than it was for Oberlin week in 2012. 

I think you're still misunderstanding me Wally. An 8-2 record, this year,  losing to Witt in a competitive game, isn't ideal, but I'll take it without pitchforks and torches. Any other loss would be less than ideal.

Any other loss just happened, didn't it?