FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

My rationale for picking Wooster so low has everything to do with last year's results.  Wooster won more games, yes. Wooster beat Allegheny head-to-head, yes.  I just can't get beyond scores like 44-10 (Wabash), 45-0 (Witt), and 21-7 (OWU).  Allegheny beat Witt the week after Witt whitewashed Wooster, and played extremely close games with OWU and Wabash.  I came away with the sense that Wooster needs more than just a year of experience to overcome those huge deficits...Allegheny was pretty close and really was just a couple of decent breaks away from being 7-3 or better. 

It's not disrespect or that I think Wooster will be bad, I just think the other four teams in the top half will be a little better. 

[kcreds]

wally, I will clarify, seeing how I offended someone to lose karma over my last comments. The 25 coaches polled along with the media reps base majority of their votes on history. I'm sure some put a lot of effort into it and to those, I would like to see their formulas. I'm sure Pat puts a lot of time into it. Pat what is the formula you used for your votes or do you abstain?

I give more weight to our projections on this board because we have some insight on all the teams in the NCAC. What was the final tally on our poll?

[wally_wabash]

I'll post the final results on Tuesday along with the other preseason goodies from NCAC Media Day.  There is still time to make a preseason ballot if anybody is lurking around out there...

I think the people that vote in the d3football.com poll are pretty serious about it.  I've read enough posts, columns, and articles on this site to know that Pat takes his poll pretty seriously...I trust that he's selected an informed group of voters, or at least a group of voters who make every effort to be informed voters.  I also think that the voting pool for this site's top 25 poll is regionally diverse, so no one region or conference is going to get shafted completely via obscurity. 

When I have more time I'll try to find a link to one of Keith McMillan's ATN columns...I remember Keith delving into his voting thought process once or twice last year.  I think you'll find that these guys are more informed than you may have first thought. 

[Pat Coleman]

wally, I will clarify, seeing how I offended someone to lose karma over my last comments. The 25 coaches polled along with the media reps base majority of their votes on history. I'm sure some put a lot of effort into it and to those, I would like to see their formulas. I'm sure Pat puts a lot of time into it. Pat what is the formula you used for your votes or do you abstain?

I can't speak for the other 24 voters, and frankly, to try to describe the thought process that goes into a preseason ballot is pretty much impossible.

I'll tell you, though, the effort that we put into researching our preseason poll is pretty extensive. We don't just ask for number of starters returning and lost, but the names of each one. Not every lost starter is created equal, right?

When I'm looking at who's gone and who's returning, I want to know whether the guys lost are the difference-makers on the team. For example, let's take Delaware Valley. In a raw analysis, they look great -- they return 18 of their starting 22. However, they lose a scrambling, playmaker quarterback, their starting center and their all-time leading rusher. Oh, and they lose their head coach.

Hardin-Simmons lost three on the offensive line, but they rebuild that line basically every year and don't miss a beat. They return TWO starting quarterbacks, both of whom started games last year and were out due to injuries when the season ended. They also get back the 2004 conference defensive MVP, who missed last year with injuries.

UW-Eau Claire gets back two injured starters at defensive back and one at wide receiver. Although they change head coaches, the guy coming in is an alumnus and a former assistant who did pretty impressive work as head coach at Marietta the past three years. UW-EC is in my Top 20 and I'm disappointed they aren't in the Top 25 to start the season.

Other things I'm disappointed in: Bridgewater and W&J are too high. I think Whitworth and Howard Payne are going to make noise. Wilkes and Delaware Valley are too far apart. Etc.

[kcreds]

Thanks Pat, very insightful. I knew you would come thru.

Do you dissect every team in every conference? Do you believe the other 24 voters dissect every team? If that is truly the case then I admit I was wrong and I hope you and the others accept my humble apology.

I have to admit that my focus was more on the NCAC whether than the big picture. I find it very easy for a voter to give votes to last year's champion, even without their star QB, the traditional team, who has not won the conference in recent years and they have a new QB, and the last team that won the conference prior to Wabash who struggled last year and has some question marks this year.

Pat, what is your opinion on the NCAC this year?

[Pat Coleman]

We request information from about 60 schools and usually receive it from 55 or so. That's the information I send to the other 24 voters, so the dissection is already done -- it's a matter of how each voter interprets it.

[waterboy]

Wally,

I really don't think it's going to take Wooster a year to recover from the whoopings they received late last season.  You have to take into account the fact the starting QB (Justin Shafer) was injured in the third quarter of the Allegheny game (the first one of the NCAC slate) and couldn't play the last several games of the season, in which they got man-handled.  Having Shafer back, although I think he's been overrated at times, is a tremendous boost to that offense.  Add in those young wide receivers from last year, and of course Sheppard, and the Wooster team is looking pretty decent on offense, although the defense is still a question mark in my opinion.  I think they'll finish ahead of the Gators in the final standings, and remember, I'm a Gator alum.

[ScotsFan]

Has it already been mentioned in here about when camp opens for the various NCAC schools?  If it has I missed it.  I just haven't seen any activity up on the hill as of yet.  Do all the schools report on the same day?

[BashBacker#16]

NCAC Media Day today in Granville, OH... 

Teams report very soon.

[wally_wabash]

They should be reading off the coach's poll as I type....I'll unveil the results of the NCAC Post Patterns preseason poll now.  Scoring is done in your standard 10-9-8-7-etc. format, first place votes are in parentheses:

Wabash 122 (6 1/3)
Witt 111 (3 1/3)
OWU 97 (1)
Wooster 91 (2 1/3)
Allegheny 81
Kenyon 70
Denison 49
Earlham 43
Oberlin 36
Hiram 15

[ski]

WOO ?

Why is Woo short on respect for 06 season?  Well, for one, Sutton is gone.  It simply is a fact that Woo without Sutton will be doubted until the Scots prove that there is life after Sutton, and yes; Tony deserves that type of respect for the talent he brought to the field. 

What did team 05 bring to the table that would have them being picked to be a frontrunner this year?  Simply put, not a lot as 05 was a year of many missed tackles and some poor blocking.  Combine that with injuries and inexperience at a couple key positions and you get nothing but questions for 06.

This 06 team does have talent, but that leaves us with the biggest question of all.  How will that talent be utilized?  In my opinion, Woo did not have the ingredients to run the spread as often as they did last year.  I really don't expect that the Scots will thrive running a lot of the spread this year.  Bottom line, the Scots have a good team but how they are directed, on both sides of the ball, will be the key to their success or failure.  Part of that direction must come from their large senior class, by giving 110% no matter what is asked of them.

[wally_wabash]

This is excruciating...nobody is posting the poll results.  Must be a great day for golfing in Granville...

While surfing around for the poll results, I found that Oberlin .pdf'd their 2006 media guide.  Bravo, Yeoman!  This should be a required practice for all NCAC institutions.  Now I know things like....Oberlin is 0-0-1 all time vs. Washington & Jefferson.  That game was played in 1894!  This year, the score can finally be settled.   

[wabco]

Just saw the polls.  Interesting ... OWU gets respect ... Witt falls a little.  Must be Witt's Frosh QB.  Last year I liked the fight and tenacity in OWU.  Woo is third ... all those seniors?  Of, course, I like the Little Giant chances.

Getting close to time.

[wally_wabash]

Aha!  Just as I post, Wabash has posted the poll results.  Here you go...

Coaches poll:

Wabash (8 ) 98
OWU 78
Wooster (2) 77
Witt 76
Allegheny 62
Kenyon 47
Denison 45
Oberlin 27
Earlham 26
Hiram 14

Media Poll:

Wabash (24) 264
Wooster (1) 213
OWU (1) 208
Witt 193
Kenyon (1) 173
Allegheny (1) 145
Denison 108
Oberlin 77
Earlham 60
Hiram 44

Kneejerk analysis...

- Is the guy who gave Kenyon a first place vote the same guy who gave Kenyon's hoops team a first place vote last year? 

- When was the last time Witt didn't receive a first place vote from either the coaches or the media?  4th in both polls for the Tigers...that's got to sting a little. 

- Kind of suprised at the huge gap in point totals between Wabash and the rest of the crowd.  I expected that Wabash would be picked to win, but I wouldn't have guessed such a wide margin. 

[smedindy]

Wow, that's a big gap. Perhaps everyone had Wabash at #1 or #2, but then everyone else fell between #1 and #6 or so.

I can see where Kenyon got a first place vote, based on their schedule and the hope the big 5 would knock big dents into each other.