FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

Certainly MSJ is in trouble if some of our assumed conference champions slip up here in the last couple of weeks (I'm looking at you Wheaton, St. Johns, Central, Muhlenberg, etc.).  But even right now...the HCAC certainly hasn't gotten much love from the committee recently and MSJ's OWP rank is down in the 100s...I haven't sifted through the Pool C eligible teams so I don't know for sure, but I'm guessing that MSJ is on the edge right now and that's without any of the aforementioned assumed Pool A teams slipping. 

BrightGuy...I don't think the overall distance between schools matters so long as the NCAA doesn't have to pony up for airplanes.  They'll bus Concordia 499 miles just as easily as they'd bus Franklin 60 miles to Wabash.  If I've read the handbook correctly, I believe it's the goal of the committee to set the matchups according to seed so long as 1) nobody has to fly, 2) nobody has to fly, 3) teams from the same conference don't play in the first round, and 4) nobody has to fly. 

[BrightGuy]

After this weekend things should be a little more clear.
HCAC
Franklin 5-0  7-1
Mt. St. Joseph 5-1  7-1
Defiance 4-1  5-3
     Defiance @ Franklin
If the don't all end up at 6-1 in the HCAC

IBC
Concordia (Wis.) 5-1  6-3
Lakeland 5-1  5-4
Benedictine 4-2  5-4
Aurora 4-2  4-4
   Concordia @ Benedictine
   Aurora @ Lakeland
All could end up at 4-2 in the IBC

MIAA
Hope 5-0  5-3
Alma 4-1  4-4
Olivet 4-1  4-4
   Olivet @ Hope
All could end up at 5-1 in the MIAA

[nike]

Does OWU still run from a wing-t? And what is the status of Hymes for this year and next?  Hiram, well they are better than last year, but Case will be a tough one.
Thought Wooster played their best game of the year defensively and offensively certainly moved the ball, but just could not score.  ScottLass was right in that the Scots  can play better than they have been and have certainly improved throughout  the year.
Earlham and Kenyon are certainly games that can be won, but Saturday's effort wil be needed.
Do any teams have a big bruising fullback that can pick up the tough yards on third and two anymore? Have not seen any. Seems like third and short is a passing down more and more.

[BrightGuy]

Wally:
Don't you think the power to be would give a Pool C to Capital with losing 2 rather than a team from the HCAC with one loss?

And I am trying not to get ahead of myself but,

De Pauw to HELL, we'll KEEP the BELL!

[usee]

Wally:
Don't you think the power to be would give a Pool C to Capital with losing 2 rather than a team from the HCAC with one loss?

And I am trying not to get ahead of myself but,

De Pauw to HELL, we'll KEEP the BELL!

I think the powers that be would definately do this if they could get away with it. I simply don't think there is any way they can take a 2 loss team over a 1 loss team. I can't recall any precedent for this and I would guess Pat would agree, he is the playoff guru (among other things  8) )

[wally_wabash]

Well let's break it down using the criteria if the season ended today (note that the SOS figures are through 10/20...these numbers won't change a lot in the last two weeks)...

MSJ
Regional record: 7-1
SOS: OWP .500 (rank 112th), OOWP .523
Vs. regionally ranked opponents: 1 (@ IWU...this will go away if IWU doesn't beat Wheaton), 1 loss (vs. Franklin)
Head-to-head: N/A
Results vs. common regional opponents: W 31-19 @ Wilmington

Capital
Regional record: 6-2
SOS: OWP .552 (rank 75), OOWP .563
Vs. regionally ranked opponents: 2 wins (vs. ONU and @ Wittenberg...these are likely to stay on Cap's resumé), 1 loss (MUC)
Head-to-head: N/A
Results vs. common regional opponents: W 40-0 vs. Wilmington

Based on the criteria, the only advantage MSJ has is their overall regional record.  Cap has a better SOS (as the NCAA defines SOS using OWP and OOWP), more regional wins, and a more impressive result against common opponent. 

It's a pretty tough choice. 

[usee]

Well let's break it down using the criteria if the season ended today (note that the SOS figures are through 10/20...these numbers won't change a lot in the last two weeks)...

MSJ
Regional record: 7-1
SOS: OWP .500 (rank 112th), OOWP .523
Vs. regionally ranked opponents: 1 (@ IWU...this will go away if IWU doesn't beat Wheaton), 1 loss (vs. Franklin)
Head-to-head: N/A
Results vs. common regional opponents: W 31-19 @ Wilmington

Capital
Regional record: 6-2
SOS: OWP .552 (rank 75), OOWP .563
Vs. regionally ranked opponents: 2 wins (vs. ONU and @ Wittenberg...these are likely to stay on Cap's resumé), 1 loss (MUC)
Head-to-head: N/A
Results vs. common regional opponents: W 40-0 vs. Wilmington

Based on the criteria, the only advantage MSJ has is their overall regional record.  Cap has a better SOS (as the NCAA defines SOS using OWP and OOWP), more regional wins, and a more impressive result against common opponent. 

It's a pretty tough choice. 

I think its a simple choice. the primary criteria is regional record and 1 team has 1 loss and the other has 2. I don't think its anymore complicated than that.

BTW, given the way the tiebreaker works in the CCIW there is still a reasonable chance that Wheaton loses to IWU and still gets the AQ. We will know exactly what has to happen after this weekends game with IWU @ North Central. Wheaton has to beat Carthage also, which is no gimme.

[matblake]

If I've read the handbook correctly, I believe it's the goal of the committee to set the matchups according to seed so long as 1) nobody has to fly, 2) nobody has to fly, 3) teams from the same conference don't play in the first round, and 4) nobody has to fly. 

That being said, it's important to remember that the NCAA sets up the matchups so nobody has to fly.

[wally_wabash]

Don't get me wrong, usee.  I'd love to see MSJ in the playoffs.  I'm pretty sure I snapped a hammy jumping onto the MSJ for Pool C bandwagon.  And if the discussion begins and ends with regional record, then MSJ is a pretty sure bet.  But regional record, as I read it, is one of the primary criteria to be considered along with the other primary criteria.  Looking at the other criteria, if there were committee members uncomfortable with the idea of selecting MSJ as one of the best 7 at-large teams and leaving Capital out, there's enough other evidence within the primary criteria to make it a reasonable debate.  I hope you're right and MSJ gets in, but there could be a debate looming inside the selection war room on this one. 

[Pat Coleman]

Wally:
Don't you think the power to be would give a Pool C to Capital with losing 2 rather than a team from the HCAC with one loss?

And I am trying not to get ahead of myself but,

De Pauw to HELL, we'll KEEP the BELL!

I think the powers that be would definately do this if they could get away with it. I simply don't think there is any way they can take a 2 loss team over a 1 loss team. I can't recall any precedent for this and I would guess Pat would agree, he is the playoff guru (among other things  8) )

It has happened.

[usee]

Don't get me wrong, usee.  I'd love to see MSJ in the playoffs.  I'm pretty sure I snapped a hammy jumping onto the MSJ for Pool C bandwagon.  And if the discussion begins and ends with regional record, then MSJ is a pretty sure bet.  But regional record, as I read it, is one of the primary criteria to be considered along with the other primary criteria.  Looking at the other criteria, if there were committee members uncomfortable with the idea of selecting MSJ as one of the best 7 at-large teams and leaving Capital out, there's enough other evidence within the primary criteria to make it a reasonable debate.  I hope you're right and MSJ gets in, but there could be a debate looming inside the selection war room on this one. 

I see your point and Pat confirms its not unprecedented. keep in mind also if Wash U wins over Case this weekend, Case becomes a pool C candidate for the North.

[ADL70]

But regions are irrelevant to Pool B or C selections.

[smedindy]

But regional records, etc. still count in B and C consideration.

I think MSJ goes over Capital, but just barely.

[usee]

But regions are irrelevant to Pool B or C selections.

its true but it will have an impact on the north seedings if case becomes a C and WashU is added as a B.

[smedindy]

Well, yes, of course. If Case does lose, seedings go to seed. Wash U. would then shove the IBC winner to the west, I think, unless they match up Wash U and Whitewater in the first round.