FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

Statistically, the two teams are pretty close in most major categories.  The two things that jump out at me are points and 3rd down conversions.  Wabash leads the league in both categories, while Wooster is near the bottom of the conference these categories.  Wooster is converting just 31.6% of their 3rd downs which is really not good at all (the national rankings are not updated, but it'll be somewhere down around 180). 

The odd thing here is that the biggest difference between the two teams is obviously the offenses, but we're coming off of a week where Wabash played poorly on offense and Wooster had by far their best game.  So who really knows what to expect!

[WAF78]

ScotsFan,
I guess what hit me were the similarities between the performances of Wabash and Woo against a common opponent...Wash U. First half played close and close score at halftime...second half both Wabash and Woo dominate Wash U..
Could it be that the Woo O finally put it together against Wash U?
I agree about the Earlham game...but sometimes teams play up or down to their opponents.
Wabash had not seen a defense like Witt's defense all year...and Woo's defense sounds just as good or better. It'll be a serious test to see what kind of heart, character and ability to learn from mistakes the Wabash team has when going against a great defense two weeks in a row.

Hope to see a lot of Woo fans in C'ville on Saturday.

[Black n Gold]

The Woo faithful will be strong on Saturday.......... this is pretty much the season. Yea, 8-2 is nice as well as 7-3 and it's a great stride from last year but believe me...... both teams will bring their A game and this will have the feel of a playoff game (as it pretty much is). Scotsfan is always down on the offense, but they have shown what they are capable of and after the Case game there were adjustments made and it did show this past weekend. One thing I worry about is the loss of Brian Swan at safety. We have some good backups but his presence on the field will be missed. Holter has turned into a leader and put up good numbers consistantly and I don't see this being an issue Saturday as well. Robert Flagg has emerged into a great target for Holter and has game breaking ability everytime he touches the ball. Jordan Ferns also looked good last week (as he finally was on the field) and Mike Franciscangili is always solid. I have faith in the Scots this weekend and am awaiting a very fun, hard hitting game with tons of emotion. Go Scots!

[medicine man]

I can't be there but will be watching.

I hope it is great game. Wooster's O has been up and down as all have said. Hopefully they have worked it all out.

D is solid as all have also said.

Wabash is awesome. I just hope we have a good, injury-free, great day of football for both teams.

[BashBacker#16]

The fact the game is at Hollett Little Giant Stadium seems to be an advantage for Wabash (I hope).  Since 2001, Wabash is 35-5 at home...the last loss was a 2nd round playoff game to Rocky Pentello's Capital team in 2005.

Wheaton in 2001
*Not at all in 2002
*Not at all in 2003
Wooster (TONY SUTTON & CO.), Allegheny, and DePauw in 2004 (horrible year)
Capital in 2005
*Not at all in 2006
*Not at all in 2007

(Knocking on wood here) - the Wabash NCAC streak is starting to look pretty impressive with 15 straight victories - the last loss being AT Witt 19-17, 3 years ago.

I hope the weather forecast improves...

[Li'l Giant]

I had forgotten how terrible 2004 was. Three of those five losses came in one god-forsaken season. Ugh.

[smedindy]

And '04 was the year that 'the deck was stacked the right way' with most of the tough games at home. Oops.

I think if NC beats Wheaton then Wabash has a chance to move up if they win convincingly. Or, if NC squeaks past Wheaton then Wabash could drop a spot just because some will reward NC and not denigrate Wheaton too much.

Signs still point to a #3 seed if Wabash wins out, and MtU and the Wheaton / NCC winner does as well. That will be a tough first round game (even at home, I can't say playing a Wheaton, North Central, Case, or Capital will be a joy) and second round on the road, perhaps.

But 'Bash can't control that - they need to TCB.

[wally_wabash]

And '04 was the year that 'the deck was stacked the right way' with most of the tough games at home. Oops.

IMO, there was very little good reason for Wabash to have lost to Allegheny and DePauw in 2004.  Those were beatable teams and the LGs really played directly to the strengths of those teams instead of playing their own game.  In the Allegheny game CC called, ready for this, 2 pass plays in the first 18 minutes of the game.  Huh?!?!  He called three more during a two-minute drill late in the first half.  5 passes in a half from CC.  This was, IMO, by far the worst game CC coached at Wabash.   

Anyway, the point is that for whatever reason CC had zero confidence in his offense (even though they had posted big numbers through the first half of the season and against Wooster), then totally bottled it up because it was windy against Allegheny and DePauw.  Lesson learned...he kept the offense open despite elements in the final three seasons. 

I think if NC beats Wheaton then Wabash has a chance to move up if they win convincingly. Or, if NC squeaks past Wheaton then Wabash could drop a spot just because some will reward NC and not denigrate Wheaton too much.

I have a hard time seeing the loser of NCC/Wheaton staying or moving ahead of Wabash as long as Wabash wins their game.  The "winning by losing close" phenomenon isn't in play here as it was for Hardin-Simmons against UMHB.  Neither team is being undervalued to the degree that H-SU apparently was. 

Signs still point to a #3 seed if Wabash wins out, and MtU and the Wheaton / NCC winner does as well. That will be a tough first round game (even at home, I can't say playing a Wheaton, North Central, Case, or Capital will be a joy) and second round on the road, perhaps.

I guess I'm confused as to why you think that Wabash is locked into no better than #3.  There aren't eight teams in the East region that are going to make the playoffs.  Four of the five leagues in the East look like single bid leagues.  The NJAC could get two if Montclair State or Rowan win out.  And if they don't, it makes it more likely that a 2-loss OAC team gets in which further overcrowds the North.  The North has too many, the East doesn't have enough...stands to reason that somebody here is going east and as it turns out, MUC is located in a good spot for such a thing.  I'd be surprised if a 10-win Wabash team doesn't get to host two games. 

[usee]

Wally,

I couldn't agree more on 2 points (no opinion on the 3rd).

1-no way wheaton/naperville loser stays in the top 10 regardless of the outcome.

2-I would be willing to bet a 10 win wabash team is a #2 seed. too many scenarios still exist: There are some tough CCIW matchups besides this week for both teams, MUC could get moved east (remote chance MUC loses a conf game), CCIW winner could go West.

[Mr. Ypsi]

smed, I noticed that you omitted the NCC/Wheaton pick on the OAC pickems.  Unless you were planning to CYA, I assume your pick is NCC (per the NCAC pickems), but hscoach might not count that!

[ScotLass]

I don't think calling it like it is means Scotsfan or me or anyone else making a reasoned assessment of the games so far means anyone is down on the offense. The first step towards improvement is recognizing the problem and it would be pretty tough to not review the season thus far and not conclude that the offense has been weak at times.  That being said, they have the ability, hence the frustration when they have been unable to consistently put together an effective, well executed game plan.

Practice was stepped up in intensity last week in preparation for Washington and it showed. The offense came to play and win Saturday and they deserve praise for having played to their potential after the loss at Case. Practice today was at an even more intense level, which bodes well for how seriously the team as a whole is about this coming Saturday.

As far as the defense goes, I will quote from this week's article on the Woo website:
"The storyline of the Scots' 2008 season has been the play of the defense. Wooster is tied for 11th in NCAA Div. III in scoring defense (12.2 ppg) and leads the league in five key categories – scoring defense, pass defense efficiency (101.0 rating), takeaways (16), sacks (16), and opponent third down conversion (24.7%). Of 75 total possessions for the opposition, nearly half (37) have ended in a takeaway (12 interceptions, four fumbles), a "three-and-out" (18 times), or a turnover on downs after just four plays (three times). "

I won't single out any specific players on defense since I think it's taken all of them playing tough to be as good as they have been. Offensively, it's going to take all the guys playing their best on Saturday. The Scots have it in them and I expect to see an intense, hard fought contest.

GO SCOTS!!!!!!

[wally_wabash]

Here's a little table I put together so that we can compare the major statistical categories side by side:

	|	Wabash	|	NCACRank	|	Nat'lRank	|	Wooster	|	NCACRank	|	Nat'lRank
Rushing Offense	|	167.50	|	5	|	69	|	199.50	|	3	|	41
Passing Offense	|	300.33	|	1	|	11	|	200.83	|	5	|	103
Passing Efficiency	|	177.06	|	1	|	2	|	115.41	|	6	|	125
Total Offense	|	467.83	|	1	|	6	|	400.33	|	2	|	45
Scoring Offense	|	40.50	|	1	|	13	|	21.50	|	8	|	142
Rushing Defense	|	67.67	|	2	|	13	|	87.83	|	3	|	33
Passing Defense	|	170.00	|	2	|	70	|	189.50	|	5	|	126
Pass Efficiency Defense	|	102.08	|	2	|	43	|	101.53	|	1	|	42
Total Defense	|	237.67	|	1	|	9	|	277.33	|	3	|	38
Scoring Defense	|	12.67	|	3	|	16	|	12.17	|	1	|	11
Turnover Margin	|	0.00	|	4	|	107	|	0.33	|	2	|	85
3rd Down Offense	|	45.1	|	1	|	35	|	31.6	|	9	|	179
3rd Down Defense	|	30.30	|	3	|	39	|	24.70	|	1	|	5

Wabash appears to have a significant edge statistically with respect to the offensive units.  The defensive units are pretty close statistically. 

A couple of other categories not on this list that is interesting is that Wooster leads the conference in sacks while Wabash leads the conference in sacks allowed.  Also, Wooster's kickoff coverage leads the conference (#25 nationally) while Wabash leads the conference in kickoff returns (#2 nationally). 

So there are the numbers...discuss.   

[BashBacker#16]

I think a few of those "jump" out that favor Wabash...none more then scoring.  Most of the categories that Woo has an advantage, its minimal and very close (i.e. Scoring D,  3rd down D, etc.) - the one advantage I do see on Woo's side is the fact they have been able to force more turnovers and the D seems opportunistic.  Someone said the Bash D will be the best they have seen to this point, I would also say the Bash O will be the best they have seen (or very similar to Case) slight edge to Bash due to the O-line and RB's, stats would support this too.

Looking forward to a good game on Saturday...

[Schwami]

Wooster will want to keep the game low scoring and close.  If Wabash can get out to an early lead of more than a TD, Woo will be in big trouble.

Maybe Woo will score 10 points for the fourth consecutive year? 

[gobash83]

With the demise of this year's Aztec Bowl and the Daily Dose call for a DIII All-Star game, wouldn't Lucas Oil Stadium be a great site for a DIII All-Star game?