FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[usee]

Wally,

like a good politician you avoided my question. If you were LK and you were NOT ALLOWED to vote your own team #1 right now, who would YOU vote for?

[Schwami]

Apparently LK can at least vote MUC as #2 before MUC gets to the Stagg Bowl (not if there is ever much question about that  ).

[fijidoc]

Regional rankings are out and Wabash is #4 in the North.

No surprise MUC and North Central ahead of us but Otterbein at #3.

Goes to show how little the polls really mean.

Question is if Otterbein losses to MUC but not totally destroyed would they stay ahead of Wabash if we finish undefeated??

[wally_wabash]

Wally,

like a good politician you avoided my question. If you were LK and you were NOT ALLOWED to vote your own team #1 right now, who would YOU vote for?

Probably North Central.  I don't think anybody has a win quite as impressive as the one NCC has at Wheaton without also having dumped a game they shouldn't have dumped somewhere along the line.  I think the issue here is that there is Mount Union and then a bunch of teams that all have very reasonable cases for being ranked at the top of the rest of D-III.  I'm sure everybody who voted this week struggled somewhat with who to put #2 and many probably could have easily flip-flopped their selection.  There's not a whole lot to distinguish teams 2-10 or so right now (as was mentioned in the podcast I think).  

And on that note....here are the only set of rankings that truly matter.  Your first installment of north region rankings with the records listed in the order of regional record, overall record:

1. MUC (6-0, 7-0)
2. NCC (7-0, 7-0)
3. Otterbein (7-0, 7-0)
4. Wabash (6-0, 7-0)
5. Trine (7-0, 7-0)
6. CWRU (6-0, 7-0)
7. Wheaton (6-1, 6-1)
8. Franklin (5-1, 6-1)
9. Adrian (5-1, 6-1)
10. RHIT (7-1, 7-1)

[wally_wabash]

Regional rankings are out and Wabash is #4 in the North.

No surprise MUC and North Central ahead of us but Otterbein at #3.

Goes to show how little the polls really mean.

Question is if Otterbein losses to MUC but not totally destroyed would they stay ahead of Wabash if we finish undefeated??

The WashU game really wrecks Wabash when it comes to these rankings.  Wabash might be #3 here if that WashU game were a regional contest.  Otterbein will not stay ahead of Wabash when they lose to MUC...the criteria used for these rankings don't really allow for a "good loss".  Losses are losses.  Does anybody believe that Wheaton isn't better than Trine?  But the criteria will keep them ranked lower because Wheaton has a blemish. 

[fijidoc]

Thanks for clarification on that Wally about not taking into account "good losses"  wasn't for sure how that worked.

[usee]

Wabash is the defacto #3 seed. The committee has done this before knowing 2 teams will play each other. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wheaton end up as a 4 or 5 seed if they win out.

[Schwami]

I'm not surprised that Otterbein is seeded #3, and I would expect them to jump to #1 if they stay undefeated and beat Mount Union.

Maybe I'm a little surprised that Trine was seeded ahead of Case.  7-0 is better than 6-0, but then Wabash is also 6-0 and ranked ahead of Trine.

[wally_wabash]

I'm not surprised that Otterbein is seeded #3, and I would expect them to jump to #1 if they stay undefeated and beat Mount Union.

Maybe I'm a little surprised that Trine was seeded ahead of Case.  7-0 is better than 6-0, but then Wabash is also 6-0 and ranked ahead of Trine.

Trine is going to be ranked ahead of CWRU because 1) Their QoWI numbers are quite a bit better than Case's are and 2) They have a win over a regionally ranked opponent (Franklin) and Case does not. 

And speaking of QoWI numbers, Wabash's cream puff schedule is, statistically speaking, slightly less creamy (or is it puffy?) than that that of our schedule's biggest critics, DePauw.  Check it out:

Wabash OWP - .585 (this is actually the highest OWP of any of the nation's regionally undefeated teams)
Wabash OOWP - .488
DePauw OWP - .561
DePauw OOWP - .494

[old wabash]

I'm not surprised that Otterbein is seeded #3, and I would expect them to jump to #1 if they stay undefeated and beat Mount Union.

Maybe I'm a little surprised that Trine was seeded ahead of Case.  7-0 is better than 6-0, but then Wabash is also 6-0 and ranked ahead of Trine.

Trine is going to be ranked ahead of CWRU because 1) Their QoWI numbers are quite a bit better than Case's are and 2) They have a win over a regionally ranked opponent (Franklin) and Case does not. 

And speaking of QoWI numbers, Wabash's cream puff schedule is, statistically speaking, slightly less creamy (or is it puffy?) than that that of our schedule's biggest critics, DePauw.  Check it out:

Wabash OWP - .585 (this is actually the highest OWP of any of the nation's regionally undefeated teams)
Wabash OOWP - .488
DePauw OWP - .561
DePauw OOWP - .494

don't confuse them with facts...they're just dannies...not math majors.

[Schwami]

I'm not surprised that Otterbein is seeded #3, and I would expect them to jump to #1 if they stay undefeated and beat Mount Union.

Maybe I'm a little surprised that Trine was seeded ahead of Case.  7-0 is better than 6-0, but then Wabash is also 6-0 and ranked ahead of Trine.

Trine is going to be ranked ahead of CWRU because 1) Their QoWI numbers are quite a bit better than Case's are and 2) They have a win over a regionally ranked opponent (Franklin) and Case does not. 

And speaking of QoWI numbers, Wabash's cream puff schedule is, statistically speaking, slightly less creamy (or is it puffy?) than that that of our schedule's biggest critics, DePauw.  Check it out:

Wabash OWP - .585 (this is actually the highest OWP of any of the nation's regionally undefeated teams)
Wabash OOWP - .488
DePauw OWP - .561
DePauw OOWP - .494

It is true that Trine has the win over a regionally ranked opponent, and Case does not . . . but neither does Wabash.

I have not looked at their respective QOWI numbers.  However, maybe Wabash benefits from the way the NCAC schedules are "power-weighted".  If you have to play all of the teams in your conference, this tends to drive the OWP to 0.500.

[wally_wabash]

Nor does Mount Union have a win over a regionally ranked team...the regional rankings, as I understand them, are not 100% objective and driven solely by the criteria.  I believe, and I think I read this maybe last year somewhere on the NCAA site, that there is a regional advisory committee (or some such named thing) that provides some insight on the teams of interest in the region and can influence the rankings somewhat.  My feeling is that the rankings are largely driven by the selection criteria, but there is room for some adjustments to be made based on the observations of this regional advisory committee.  Even though MUC doesn't quite grade out as well as a couple of other teams strictly by the objective criteria, it would be irresponsible to have them ranked anywhere other than #1 right now. 

[fc_alum_84]

I am with you wally.  numbers are numbers but Trine is not better than Wheaton.  In fact, Wheaton would blast Trine.  Trine's win over Franklin while deserved based on the circumstances (FC had five turnovers, three of them in the Red Zone leading directly to 17 points). 

FC would pop Trine again if they played.  Trine survived a scuffle with highly regarded Kalamazoo last week 36-35.  Trine still needs to beat 6-1 Adrian or they are out at 9-1 IMO. 

[wally_wabash]

That is what makes this part of the season so exciting.  We've got regional rankings, we've got teams clinching, teams close to clinching, teams off the radar that could sneak up and clinch (RHIT and Adrian come to mind)...all of this speculation and guessing and conversation is a lot of fun.  This comes up every single year, but I just can't believe how D-I doesn't want this. 

The mystery is largely over as far as Wabash and the playoffs is concerned, but watching the other races around the region and the nation is just as exciting for me.  It's a great time to be a D-III fan.   

[Superfoot Wallace]

Nor does Mount Union have a win over a regionally ranked team...

but there is room for some adjustments to be made based on the observations of this regional advisory committee.  Even though MUC doesn't quite grade out as well as a couple of other teams strictly by the objective criteria, it would be irresponsible to have them ranked anywhere other than #1 right now. 

This is a real prisoner's dilemma, wally.  But for losses to MUC would those teams MUC has beaten not be ranked themselves.  With limited altruism this is where the definition of a quality loss stem.

I am with you wally.  numbers are numbers but Trine is not better than Wheaton.  In fact, Wheaton would blast Trine.  Trine's win over Franklin while deserved based on the circumstances (FC had five turnovers, three of them in the Red Zone leading directly to 17 points). 

FC would pop Trine again if they played.  Trine survived a scuffle with highly regarded Kalamazoo last week 36-35.  Trine still needs to beat 6-1 Adrian or they are out at 9-1 IMO. 

Is that to say FC would pop Wheaton were they to square up?  Ittersagen should surely relish the opportunity to compare notes on the Augustana spread and the FC oneback.  But first matters first, the coach from Speedway has a Clabber Girl squad on the radar.  Talk about a prisoner's dilemma.  Gotta love the fundamentals of gaming theory.

signed,
Slick