FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[HScoach]

In all due respect to Trine #4 and the fantastic season they have had...... they will not make it out of the first round.  I believe that the #5, #6, & #7 teams on the list above would beat them and most likely pretty bad.

(and yes, I know they beat Franklin the 3rd week of the season, but they gave Trine a lot of help in that game with 5 turnovers. - que Mora)

Unfortunately, the NCAA doesn't factor in "how they won" into the rankings. 

If I was to rank them based expected head-to-head outcomes, then it would be Otterbein 4th, Case 5th and Trine 6th.

[bashbrother]

Unfortunately, the NCAA doesn't factor in "how they won" into the rankings. 

If I was to rank them based expected head-to-head outcomes, then it would be Otterbein 4th, Case 5th and Trine 6th.

I agree with this seeding.

Otterbein is a very good football team and as I have said before, I don't think anyone wants to see them in the 1st round.

[wally_wabash]

Unfortunately, the NCAA doesn't factor in "how they won" into the rankings. 

If I was to rank them based expected head-to-head outcomes, then it would be Otterbein 4th, Case 5th and Trine 6th.

I agree with this seeding.

Otterbein is a very good football team and as I have said before, I don't think anyone wants to see them in the 1st round.

I do.  Bring 'em on.  Wabash took some heat last year for the MSJ/CWRU road to the quarters while NCC/Franklin/Capital/UWW were battling it out on the other side of the bracket.  I want to see how good Wabash is.  I also want to see Wabash set about debunking this idea that #2 OAC is always better than everybody else's best.  Sometimes that's true (2005 Capital was as good as anybody that wasn't MUC...ONU in the Jamal Robertson era was awesome as well), but I'm not 100% sold that this is an absolute truth.  Let's put it to the test.  I'd love to see the Cardinals come to C'ville on the 22nd. 

[Schwami]

I agree, I would like to see a Wabash / Otterbein match up.  The bad news is that the path could be brutal beyond Otterbein (if Wabash keeps winning), with a potential second round game at #2 North Central, then #1 MUC (again, all games I would like to see happen).  What's worse, even if #3 Wabash were to somehow make it through that stretch, they would most likely have to go on the road to who knows where for the semi-finals.  Ouch!

[usee]

I agree, I would like to see a Wabash / Otterbein match up.  The bad news is that the path could be brutal beyond Otterbein (if Wabash keeps winning), with a potential second round game at #2 North Central, then #1 MUC (again, all games I would like to see happen).  What's worse, even if #3 Wabash were to somehow make it through that stretch, they would most likely have to go on the road to who knows where for the semi-finals.  Ouch!

The fact that the North bracket may end up being brutal is the #1 reason wabash fans should want franklin, thomas more, or Aurora in round 1. Playing Ott/NCC/MUC is tough duty. No one will fault you for playing Aurora before you play the big dogs in the bracket. You will get to prove yourselves sooner or later.

[BashDad]

I'm with Wally.

The most painful thing about 2005 was that we were about eight yards from continuing the progression that the 2002 team started: putting to rest this idea that Bash was no better than the top half of the OAC and solidifying ourselves as contenders on a national stage.

We may have done the latter as is evident with our generous (and who knows how generous at this point) ranking, though we haven't won a game yet in the playoffs that we weren't supposed to win.  I, personally, would love to see Otterbein and would love to beat them.

[wally_wabash]

I agree, I would like to see a Wabash / Otterbein match up.  The bad news is that the path could be brutal beyond Otterbein (if Wabash keeps winning), with a potential second round game at #2 North Central, then #1 MUC (again, all games I would like to see happen).  What's worse, even if #3 Wabash were to somehow make it through that stretch, they would most likely have to go on the road to who knows where for the semi-finals.  Ouch!

The fact that the North bracket may end up being brutal is the #1 reason wabash fans should want franklin, thomas more, or Aurora in round 1. Playing Ott/NCC/MUC is tough duty. No one will fault you for playing Aurora before you play the big dogs in the bracket. You will get to prove yourselves sooner or later.

I guess what I was saying earlier is that I'm not sold on Otterbein being a "brutal" team to play.  NCC and MUC are very tough for sure.  Not so sure with Otterbein.  After MUC, the OAC doesn't strike me as particularly scary this year.  I'd welcome the opportunity to test that theory. 

I'm still not sold that the committee is going to keep MUC, NCC, and Wabash all in the same bracket.  And it doesn't even have to be the case that one of these teams "steals" a #1 seed from another region.  If they want to move NCC west and make NCC #2 so be it.  NCC was going to be a #2 in the North anyway.  But moving them or moving MUC east helps to balance things out a little bit.  The seeds are less important to me than balancing the relative strength of the brackets a bit.  But if we all get lumped into the same quadrant of the bracket, so be it.   The tournament was never supposed to be easy anyway.   

[HScoach]

I do.  Bring 'em on.  Wabash took some heat last year for the MSJ/CWRU road to the quarters while NCC/Franklin/Capital/UWW were battling it out on the other side of the bracket.  I want to see how good Wabash is.  I also want to see Wabash set about debunking this idea that #2 OAC is always better than everybody else's best.  Sometimes that's true (2005 Capital was as good as anybody that wasn't MUC...ONU in the Jamal Robertson era was awesome as well), but I'm not 100% sold that this is an absolute truth.  Let's put it to the test.  I'd love to see the Cardinals come to C'ville on the 22nd. 

Great points.  If this theory is going to be put to bed, '08 would be the perfect time to do it.  The '99/'00 Ohio Northern teams with Franzer, Robertson & Vagedas and the '02 John Carroll team led by Tom Arth were very good teams and would have been a serious handfull for anyone in the nation.  Heck, JCU got shipped east and won that bracket before dying on the MUC alter in the semi-finals. 

There have also been some years however that the 2nd OAC team wasn't up to par.   The '07 Capital team had the defense to be great, but absolutely ZERO offense once they lost the QB and most of the WR's and the entire RB stable.  They went to Whitewater with the starting DE playing TB.  Ouch.  And the '03 Baldwin Wallace team that lost to in the first round to Wheaton had a very good running QB (Dan Larlham), but an average team around him.  I would have expected a good NCAC team (Wabash or the Witt of old) to beat them.  Especialy at home.

Which brings me to Otterbein this season.   They have a very good running game but very little passing game.  Their defense is solid, but not spectacular.   Overall a solid team, but not near the strength of the ONU/Capital teams of previous years.  Probably about the same as the '03 B-W team.

Otterbein's biggest hurdle will probably be the fact that they've NEVER qualified for the playoffs before.  If they would get matched up with a playoff tested team like NCC or Wabash in the first round, I'd be very hesitant to expect them to handle the atmosphere and pressure very well.   

Their biggest advantage will come pyschologically from having already played Mount.  They aren't likely to see anything in Round 1 that faster or more intense than playing MUC, at least that's what I'd be preaching to the team if I was the Otter coach.

If I were to set a spread on a hypothetical Otterbein at Wabash game in the 1st round, Otterbein would probably be getting around 8 to 11 points.

[WAF78]

BashDad...
Yeah...8 yards...and 10 dropped passes.
I guess I can go either way....face Otterbein 1st round or not. I just hope that whomever we play that Wabash can bring their A game...this week for the bell game and for the playoff games.

[bashbrother]

#3 -

I hear ya.  Going to the same Bell party location in the City?

[ADL70]

If all the unbeatens stay that way I think someone from the North likely goes East.  If Cortland loses, most likely Mt Union as #1 if not CWRU as 3 or 4.  Thomas More is geographically right to move to the North.

[Danimal814]

Despite the OAC may be being down this year (I'm not willing to concede that yet), you have to think that Otterbein in better than the likes of Trine, Franklin, or another AQ.  I think it would be beneficial to Wabash to have a game against a weaker foe rather than a really good OAC team.  Getting through the North will be brutal enough, having a cake walk for a first round game is not a bad thing.  If Otterbein is really that good, we'll face them or MUC at some point.  I would rather face an easy first round then Otterbein rather then Otterbein and NCC.

Besides that, if we keep getting a few rounds deep into the play-offs that will start a tradition and attract recruits to a place that is in the play-offs every year. 

With all that said, I think the most important game is this weekend.  Besides a home play-off game  on the line, it is Monon and anybody around Wabash knows this game decides if this is a good season or not. 

Go Wabash!!!

[Black n Gold]

If Otterbein slips up this week AT JCU..........do they still sneak in?

[wally_wabash]

If Otterbein slips up this week AT JCU..........do they still sneak in?

No.  Not without some help anyway.  There are just too many 1-loss teams and not enough at-large spots for teams with multiple regional losses to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. 

[short]

If Otterbein slips up this week AT JCU..........do they still sneak in?

Maybe or maybe not. With Otterbein losing its last 2 games (if they slip up)  coupled with the fact Wooster's loses were to top 15 undefeated teams, maybe Wooster gets in over a 2 loss Otterbein team.