FB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[sac]

Massey ratings going into MIAA play

88.  Olivet
97.  Albion
102.  Adrian
147.  Trine
168.  Alma
173.  Kalamazoo
189.  Hope
<error: file not found>  Calvin


Massey's probability of victory leads to Albion winning the MIAA
1.  Albion 6-0
2.  Olivet 4-1-1  (Adrian game a tossup right now)
2.  Adrian 4-1-1
4.  Trine  3-3
5.  Alma  1-5
5.  Kalamazoo  1-5
5.  Hope 1-5

massey hasn't sorted out Alma, Kzoo, Hope very well yet. 


Saturday:
Olivet @ Hope
Alma @ Kzoo
Adrian @ Albion
Concordia, Il @ Trine

Forecast is for temps in the mid to upper 60's with drizzle and occasional showers, with the late start in Holland, lower temps

[HansenRatings]

Here's how my model sees the MIAA race right now

Pool A Probabilities:
73. Albion: 35.36% (4.3-1.7)
89. Trine: 23.56% (3.8-2.2)
94. Olivet: 17.46% (3.6-2.4)
98. Adrian: 14.47% (3.5-2.5)
159. Kalamazoo: 3.41% (2.0-4.0)
161. Hope: 3.23% (2.0-4.0)
166. Alma: 2.51% (1.8-4.2)

Surprised to see Trine so much different between our systems. See more here or here.

[formerd3db]

To Mr. Ypsi and our other friends here:

On a somewhat tangent (but longtime returning topic ), it is great to see that CC has Eastern Michigan with a 4-1 record with wins against Wyoming and Bowling Green as well as the two home games having a reported >16,000 attendance.  Granted they got blasted by Missouri and their other wins against some not so great teams, but it is great to see so far.  Of course, there is a long way still to go and some tough tests ahead and all this could change.  Hopefully, though, the momentum can continue; with the exception of Western Michigan, the MAC seems to have more parity this year.

As to other attendance issues, I find it somewhat interesting that despite Hope and other MIAA teams being in a not-so-great conference (as far as conference rankings) and teams like Hope and Albion not doing so well so far, they have outdrawn many of the DII GLIAC teams in attendance, in some cases, by quite some margin.  Interesting that DIII can do that. 

Anyway, disappointing loss last night to Olivet (who I believe again-at least at this point-will be among the top title contenders).  But as for Hope, perhaps they can rebound against Alma next Saturday, although it will be tough because it is at Balhke Stadium and Alma is no slouch team.   

[Mr. Ypsi]

formerd3bd, #2 son and I figured out last night what has happened at EMU.  The year before he started they went 6-6; the years he was there they never won more than 1 or 2 games; he graduated this past spring - so the jinx is gone!

I think if anyone can turn around EMU it is Chris Creighton - I'm just not yet convinced that ANYONE can make them consistently competitive, much less consistently good.  The built-in problems (not least the HUGE shadow of The Big House) are just too daunting.  I'll reserve judgment for a couple of years - and if he CAN do it, they'll probably just lose him to a higher profile school anyway!

[sac]

Current massey ratings:

94.  Adrian
95.  Olivet
131.  Albion
140.  Trine
159.  Alma
184.  Hope
200.  Kalamazoo

Massey really hated Albion's 7 point loss to Adrian and dropped them from 97 to 131, that seems harsh.

Massey's probability of victory standings
1.  Adrian  6-0
2.  Albion  5-1
3.  Olivet   4-2
4.  Trine 3-3 
5.  Alma  2-4
6.  Hope 1-5
7.  Kalamazoo 0-6

Massey likes Albion for #2 even though they have them ranked well behind the Comets, go figure.  Trine is a single digit 'dog' against Adrian, Albion, Olivet at this point, my hunch would be they'll figure in the title chase somehow.

Saturday:

Kalamazoo at Olivet,   Olivet by 21
Albion at Trine,   Albion by 4
Hope at Alma,    Alma by 5

Lakeland at Adrian,   Adrian by 8

Expect a very nice fall day, but a bit on the chilly side given recent weather.  High's in the mid to upper 50's, plenty of sunshine and a chilly and blustery Northwest wind.  It will feel colder than it is probably.

[DBQ1965]

Former d3db ... what happened to/with Chris Leigh?  I saw some miscues against Monmouth and he seems to have disappeared.

[formerd3db]

Former d3db ... what happened to/with Chris Leigh?  I saw some miscues against Monmouth and he seems to have disappeared.

DBQ:

Although I am not involved with his situation at all, nonetheless, due to Federal law i.e. HIPPA rules/regulations, I am not at liberty to divulge the exact nature of the situation.  From what I have heard via the "rumor mill", he apparently has some type of injury and is out indefinitely. 

[formerd3db]

Wow, Olivet has a reported/listed 6175 attendance at their game yesterday!  That must be a record and no doubt the stadium was jammed and overflowing as the listed capacity is about 2200.  Unfortunately, Kalamazoo is just not very good this year and took a pretty good pounding yesterday, but it looks like Olivet is gathering steam.  It will be interesting to see how they do against the remaining MIAA teams.

[formerd3db]

At the Alma/Hope game yesterday, a beautiful fall day for football-couldn't have been better.  A nice crowd for Alma's Homecoming, although I definitely thought there were more in the stands than the listed attendance (IMO, it was more like 3000+ since the Alma side was completely full with standing room only and Hope pretty much had the Visitors stands on the opposite side filled.  I also enjoyed a nostalgic tour of Alma's campus with my brother; sorry his team lost. (not really ) Anyway, Hope started out sloppy, fumbles, not executing, etc. and I thought Alma was going to run away with it after they scored first.  However, Alma then faltered and could not forge any offensive drive, while Hope switched to Sr. QB Custer, who seemed to settle them down, running game opened up with Campbell and Alma could not stop them.  Alma had one nice offensive drive in the 4th quarter, but then Hope exploded and that was the end of it.  Alma is a good team, but Hope players did not give up and finished it off, which was nice to see since they haven't really done that in the past few years.  Still, the remaining games will be tough. 

Enjoyed a nostalgic tour at Alma's campus with my brother.     

[DBQ1965]

Former d3db ... what happened to/with Chris Leigh?  I saw some miscues against Monmouth and he seems to have disappeared.

DBQ:

Although I am not involved with his situation at all, nonetheless, due to Federal law i.e. HIPPA rules/regulations, I am not at liberty to divulge the exact nature of the situation.  From what I have heard via the "rumor mill", he apparently has some type of injury and is out indefinitely.

Thank you.

[DBQ1965]

Former d3db ... what happened to/with Chris Leigh?  I saw some miscues against Monmouth and he seems to have disappeared.

DBQ:

Although I am not involved with his situation at all, nonetheless, due to Federal law i.e. HIPPA rules/regulations, I am not at liberty to divulge the exact nature of the situation.  From what I have heard via the "rumor mill", he apparently has some type of injury and is out indefinitely.

Thank you.

By the way, I really liked watching him play.

[sac]

Massey ratings

87.  Olivet
107.  Adrian
122.  Trine
161.  Albion
169.  Hope
178.  Alma
212.  Kalamazoo

Albion took a big dip last week which seemed "harsh" to me, not so much anymore as the Brits tumble to 161 hanging with the Dutchmen who just won their first MIAA game in almost 2 years.

Probability of victory standings

1.  Olivet  6-0
2.  Trine   5-1
3.  Adrian  4-2
4.  Albion 3-3
5.  Hope 2-4
6.  Alma  1-6
7.  Kzoo  0-7

Olivet's cruising win over Kzoo and Adrian beating Lakeland was enough for massey to change its MIAA outcome.  It should be noted in all of the games remaining between Olivet, Adrian, Trine and Albion massey has a 5 point margin or less and win probabilities basically "pick'em" in half  of those.


Saturday:

Olivet at Albion:  Olivet by 3
Trine at Kzoo:   Trine by 17
Hope at Adrian:  Adrian by 11

Aurora at Alma:  Alma by 7

If you liked last Saturday's weather you'll probably love this Saturday with temps in the mid to upper 60's with lots of sun and little breeze.  A potentially perfect Fall Saturday afternoon. *

*-  It's Tuesday, so yeah, that can change.

[Mr. Ypsi]

What the heck is happening in Holland?!   Two weeks ago they lost to Olivet by only 2; then they beat red-hot Alma and today trounced Adrian!  After a prolonged dry spell, are they suddenly back to their accustomed spot as a contender?

Taking up a past topic - EMU went to Athens today and took down Ohio U. (previously unbeaten in MAC play), 27-20.  I'm still a skeptic whether or not ANYONE can make EMU consistently good (or even consistently competitive).  But I am now a true believer that if anyone can, it is one-time Wabash HC, Chris Creighton.

[formerd3db]

Well, Mr. Ypsi, it is, indeed, strange.  The real test will now come this Saturday against Trine and then against Albion on November 5th.  We never play well down at Albion and as bad as they seem to be this year, which is a real surprise IMO, that will still be a very tough challenge.  Trine is no push-over either, even though this is our Homecoming game.  And as for Kalamazoo, we should beat them, however, I and everyone else said that last year despite our collapse and they killed us.  So who knows.   Of course, Olivet is now in the "driver's seat" and, as for Hope, even if we end up in a tie for the league title, they would get the AQ obviously by having defeated us.

As to your IWU, seems like a somewhat strange year?

Yes, great to see EMU continue to do well and improve.  I am impressed and surprised so far.  The MAC has much parity this year, but every game is a tough one for everyone, IMO.   

[formerd3db]

I would add that it appears our Senior QB has "awoken" to his potential and has been playing well the last 1 1/2 games after taking over for our Freshman in the first half of the Alma game last week.  Running game has been solid all year, but, again, we'll see how that plays out next week.  It would be nice to get a Homecoming win.  We've had some "bumps" on that weekend the last decade as prior to that, at one time, we had 22 consecutive Homecoming wins.