FB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[sac]

Masseyratings, it should be noted I certainly don't like massey because of its accuracy 

73.  Olivet
108.  Trine
125.  Adrian
130.  Hope
161.  Alma
171.  Albion
210.  Kalamazoo

Hope moved up 39 places after shocking Adrian on the road.  Olivet now becomes massey's most favored MIAA squad by a solid margin. 

Probability of victory standings

1.  Olivet 6-0
2.  Trine  5-1
3.  Hope 3-3
3.  Adrian 3-3
3.  Albion 3-3
6.  Alma 1-5
7.  Kalamazoo  0-6

Olivet plays Adrian and Trine to finish the season, massey has them a TD favorite in both games.

Of the 12 conference games remaining massey has a points margin of 7 or less in 7 of them, 8 or less in 8.


Saturday:
Albion at Alma:  Albion by 3
Trine at Hope:  Trine by 3
Kalamazoo at Adrian:  Adrian by 18

Benedictine at Olivet:  Olivet by 14

Saturday looks to be a sunny but cool one with temps in the low 50's and I imagine a breeze of some kind from an untemperature friendly direction.

[formerd3db]

Masseyratings, it should be noted I certainly don't like massey because of its accuracy 

73.  Olivet
108.  Trine
125.  Adrian
130.  Hope
161.  Alma
171.  Albion
210.  Kalamazoo

Hope moved up 39 places after shocking Adrian on the road.  Olivet now becomes massey's most favored MIAA squad by a solid margin. 

Probability of victory standings

1.  Olivet 6-0
2.  Trine  5-1
3.  Hope 3-3
3.  Adrian 3-3
3.  Albion 3-3
6.  Alma 1-5
7.  Kalamazoo  0-6

Olivet plays Adrian and Trine to finish the season, massey has them a TD favorite in both games.

Of the 12 conference games remaining massey has a points margin of 7 or less in 7 of them, 8 or less in 8.


Saturday:
Albion at Alma:  Albion by 3
Trine at Hope:  Trine by 3
Kalamazoo at Adrian:  Adrian by 18

Benedictine at Olivet:  Olivet by 14

Saturday looks to be a sunny but cool one with temps in the low 50's and I imagine a breeze of some kind from an untemperature friendly direction.

Nice work as usual, sac...+k.  The predictions you mention for this Saturday are legit.  Yet, I think that the first two could go either way.  It obviously depends on which Alma and which Hope teams "show up" for their games.  Of course, I'm only basing that on my having seen both Alma and Hope play and not having seen either Albion or Trine play-only going on what I have perceived in seeing their scores and game descriptions.  Although Albion is uncharacteristically winless so far this year, they are always dangerous and you can never count them out.  That is very much like the Michigan/Michigan State game, particularly for this year and, IMO, also last weekend's Michigan State/Northwestern game.  One can never count out Northwestern in this present era. 

Anyway, if the weather report holds true, it will great to have some nice weather, especially for Hope's Homecoming.  I just hope that it will continue the following weeks, especially when we play down at Albion on Nov 5th, but I won't be holding my breath on that one! 

[Raider 68]

Masseyratings, it should be noted I certainly don't like massey because of its accuracy 

73.  Olivet
108.  Trine
125.  Adrian
130.  Hope
161.  Alma
171.  Albion
210.  Kalamazoo

Hope moved up 39 places after shocking Adrian on the road.  Olivet now becomes massey's most favored MIAA squad by a solid margin. 

Probability of victory standings

1.  Olivet 6-0
2.  Trine  5-1
3.  Hope 3-3
3.  Adrian 3-3
3.  Albion 3-3
6.  Alma 1-5
7.  Kalamazoo  0-6

Olivet plays Adrian and Trine to finish the season, massey has them a TD favorite in both games.

Of the 12 conference games remaining massey has a points margin of 7 or less in 7 of them, 8 or less in 8.


Saturday:
Albion at Alma:  Albion by 3
Trine at Hope:  Trine by 3
Kalamazoo at Adrian:  Adrian by 18

Benedictine at Olivet:  Olivet by 14

Saturday looks to be a sunny but cool one with temps in the low 50's and I imagine a breeze of some kind from an untemperature friendly direction.

Nice work as usual, sac...+k.  The predictions you mention for this Saturday are legit.  Yet, I think that the first two could go either way.  It obviously depends on which Alma and which Hope teams "show up" for their games.  Of course, I'm only basing that on my having seen both Alma and Hope play and not having seen either Albion or Trine play-only going on what I have perceived in seeing their scores and game descriptions.  Although Albion is uncharacteristically winless so far this year, they are always dangerous and you can never count them out.  That is very much like the Michigan/Michigan State game, particularly for this year and, IMO, also last weekend's Michigan State/Northwestern game.  One can never count out Northwestern in this present era. 

Anyway, if the weather report holds true, it will great to have some nice weather, especially for Hope's Homecoming.  I just hope that it will continue the following weeks, especially when we play down at Albion on Nov 5th, but I won't be holding my breath on that one! 

former3db,

Hope your alma mater prevails at your Homecoming!

[formerd3db]

Thanks Raider68.  I believe it will be a close game either way.  Hope your Mount continues to march on, also!  Good to hear from you and I hope all is well.

[sac]

Hope 31  Trine 7
Alma 37  Albion 14
Adrian 31 Kzoo 13

Olivet 54  Benediction 48 OT


Probably won't happen but it would be something if Hope and Albion went 0-6 in back-to-back years in the MIAA.

[formerd3db]

Well, sac, Hope is playing with a mission right now.  The O line and D line have been blowing people out like crazy the past 3 games (Alma, Adrian and last night Trine), the best overall for quite some time in the opinion of many.  As such, our running game has been literally "a blast".  Also, Trine lost their top RB last night early in the game due to an injury.  It was a nice win for us, great to get back to the usuall tradition of winning Homecoming games (I don't think any of us will forget the streak of 22 straight Homecoming wins).

All that said, despite Albion being no where near what they traditionally are this year, let's not kid ourselves in that we will have to be at the very top of our game when we play them in 2 weeks.  Even since my own playing days way back when (and before then, too ), we/Hope never play well at Sprankle-Sprandle Stadium and I sense a very tough game and challenge for us there.  Of course, I hope we win and it will be great, but it will not be a push over, just because Alma and Olivet both crushed Albion.  As I have shared my opinion with others here, I compare it to the Michigan/Michigan State game.  My beloved Michigan always has a tough time at Michigan State, and despite the latter having a terrible season now, don't count them out.  They could easily spoil Michigan's dream for a national championship series (just like Penn State did to Ohio State last night) -I don't have to remind you and others of last year's debacle for Michigan against State on the last play of the game!   So Michigan and Hope both better bring our "A" games for those games or it will be a huge disappointment.  But...all that said, I am confident (as long as we don't look past Kazoo next weekend )

Nice weather for the Homecoming game last evening, although I was a little disappointed in the crowd size-it was nice, but I had hoped for and expected much more.  Anyway, we'll see what happens.  Coach S and his staff has the troops fired up at this point.

[DBQ1965]

So ... Hope lost 3 out of 4 early, but now finds itself in contention for the conference title, depending on several scenarios.  Have the Dutchmen improved that much, or is the MIAA that weak?

[Mr. Ypsi]

So ... Hope lost 3 out of 4 early, but now finds itself in contention for the conference title, depending on several scenarios.  Have the Dutchmen improved that much, or is the MIAA that weak?

While the MIAA will rarely be confused with a power conference, the three teams Hope just beat were not the dregs of the conference - Alma was 3-1 (and game in Alma), Adrian was 3-2 (and game in Adrian), and they monkey-stomped a Trine team that was 5-1.  Contrast this with the turnaround of Mt. St. Joseph, who started 0-3 and has now won 5 straight.  With the exception of beating a solid RHIT team, their wins HAVE all been against the dregs of a conference (HCAC) which is generally ranked even lower than the MIAA.  Hope can justly be very proud of their turnaround.

[formerd3db]

Mr. Ypsi:

For sure, our MIAA is not what it once was years ago.  However, I will take the wins we've had for sure!  Thanks for the compliments.  Yet, as I have posted elsewhere, the real test for us will be against Albion regardless of their being 0-7 at this present time.  We seem to never play well there (or even get a break once-in-awhile), but we'll see what happens this year.

BTW, your former school Eastern did not embarrass themselves against Western Michigan.  They played a good game and, perhaps, it may have been even closer (or even a different story), had Eastern not fumbled on that almost TD run fumble early in the game! 

[sac]

masseyratings for this week

78.  Olivet
115.  Hope
132.  Trine
134.  Adrian
147.  Alma
191.  Albion
213.  Kalamazoo

Its some fairly accurate approximation of the current and likely standings at this point.


probability of victory standings.

Olivet 6-0
Hope  5-1
Trine 4-2
Adrian 3-3
Alma 2-4
Albion 1-5
Kalamazoo 0-6

Massey says 6 of the 9 remaining games are less than 8 points margins.


Saturday's games:
Adrian at Trine   Trine by 3  (elimination game from auto-bid essentially)
Alma at Olivet    Olivet by 14
Kalamazoo at Hope   Hope by 24     shoes!

Rockford at Albion   Albion by 28

Saturday's forecast is breezy but warm with temps in the mid 60's and lots of clouds.  Showers possible the later in the afternoon you go with some steadier rain in the evening.  With all games starting at 1 I would predict dry games for everyone but this is Michigan.


Path to the auto-bid, there are a lot of ways this can go still

Olivet:  win out, drivers seat---(can actually afford a loss depending on who its to and what happens to them)
Hope:  needs to win out, Olivet to lose twice
Adrian and Trine:  win out, Hope lose once.
Alma:  needs to win out, Hope lose once.

[formerd3db]

masseyratings for this week

78.  Olivet
115.  Hope
132.  Trine
134.  Adrian
147.  Alma
191.  Albion
213.  Kalamazoo

Its some fairly accurate approximation of the current and likely standings at this point.


probability of victory standings.

Olivet 6-0
Hope  5-1
Trine 4-2
Adrian 3-3
Alma 2-4
Albion 1-5
Kalamazoo 0-6

Massey says 6 of the 9 remaining games are less than 8 points margins.


Saturday's games:
Adrian at Trine   Trine by 3  (elimination game from auto-bid essentially)
Alma at Olivet    Olivet by 14
Kalamazoo at Hope   Hope by 24     shoes!

Rockford at Albion   Albion by 28

Saturday's forecast is breezy but warm with temps in the mid 60's and lots of clouds.  Showers possible the later in the afternoon you go with some steadier rain in the evening.  With all games starting at 1 I would predict dry games for everyone but this is Michigan.


Path to the auto-bid, there are a lot of ways this can go still

Olivet:  win out, drivers seat---(can actually afford a loss depending on who its to and what happens to them)
Hope:  needs to win out, Olivet to lose twice
Adrian and Trine:  win out, Hope lose once.
Alma:  needs to win out, Hope lose once.

sac, excellent work as usual, +k   Quite intricate potential scenarios for each team to gain the AQ to the NCAAs.  I agree with the odds makers that Albion will most likely get its first win this weekend.  I wonder if Olivet can hold out-at times they have been solid, other times wavering.  I would, of course, be most elated if they lose twice and we win out.  Yet, as I mentioned, I am fearful, yet at the same time hopeful and confident about our challenge next week at Morley Fraser Field/old S&S Stadium.

BTW, although this is our board for DIII opinings, you did not provide us with your prediction (and/or desire) for tomorrows Michigan/Michigan State annual bash.   I'm going with my Michigan, but, like the upcoming Hope/Albion game, I still am a little apprehensive.  And please, my friends, no "where is your faith in the old alma mater!"

[SaintsFAN]

Mr. Ypsi:

For sure, our MIAA is not what it once was years ago.  However, I will take the wins we've had for sure!  Thanks for the compliments.  Yet, as I have posted elsewhere, the real test for us will be against Albion regardless of their being 0-7 at this present time.  We seem to never play well there (or even get a break once-in-awhile), but we'll see what happens this year.

BTW, your former school Eastern did not embarrass themselves against Western Michigan.  They played a good game and, perhaps, it may have been even closer (or even a different story), had Eastern not fumbled on that almost TD run fumble early in the game!

Formerd3db, 

We have long talked about this but I booked my flight and hotel tonight for Salem.  Are you able to make it?  I know you're further away than years past but so am I, having moved to Boston in the past year.

Hope you can and I can buy you that beer.

[formerd3db]

Mr. Ypsi:

For sure, our MIAA is not what it once was years ago.  However, I will take the wins we've had for sure!  Thanks for the compliments.  Yet, as I have posted elsewhere, the real test for us will be against Albion regardless of their being 0-7 at this present time.  We seem to never play well there (or even get a break once-in-awhile), but we'll see what happens this year.

BTW, your former school Eastern did not embarrass themselves against Western Michigan.  They played a good game and, perhaps, it may have been even closer (or even a different story), had Eastern not fumbled on that almost TD run fumble early in the game!

Formerd3db, 

We have long talked about this but I booked my flight and hotel tonight for Salem.  Are you able to make it?  I know you're further away than years past but so am I, having moved to Boston in the past year.

Hope you can and I can buy you that beer.

My friend SaintsFAN:

Great to hear from you.  Of course, I have followed your posts on some of the other boards.  I will send you a PM in a few minutes regarding yours above.  I hope all is well with you and the family.

[Mr. Ypsi]

As to that non-D3 clash in East Podunk (excuse me, Lansing ) tomorrow, Moo U. seems to be in total meltdown, and UM has several years of frustration to work out.  I'm predicting a double monkey-stomp (and hoping for a triple!).

(Although I'm NEVER absolutely comfortable when playing a rival.  A few seasons ago IWU beat BOTH Wheaton and NCC [only time in the last decade or so to beat them both], but lost to a totally inferior Millikin team that [at least back in my day, not sure if it's still true] was our most 'hated' rival. )

With the number of UM players who are graduating or moving to Sundays after this season, next year the Spartans may well take their revenge.

[formerd3db]

As to that non-D3 clash in East Podunk (excuse me, Lansing ) tomorrow, Moo U. seems to be in total meltdown, and UM has several years of frustration to work out.  I'm predicting a double monkey-stomp (and hoping for a triple!).

(Although I'm NEVER absolutely comfortable when playing a rival.  A few seasons ago IWU beat BOTH Wheaton and NCC [only time in the last decade or so to beat them both], but lost to a totally inferior Millikin team that [at least back in my day, not sure if it's still true] was our most 'hated' rival. )

With the number of UM players who are graduating or moving to Sundays after this season, next year the Spartans may well take their revenge.

I know what you mean, Mr. Ypsi.  On a smaller scale and similar to your story about your IWU above, I recall several years ago in the early 2000s before I "returned home", we were leading the league and then went to Hope and got utterly trounced.  That is always a "blind-sided hit" when such happens.  Anyway, for sure, it would be great to see Michigan win big as you mention, yet you are entirely right in that anything can happen.  Just recall last year at Michigan or that time just 3-4 years ago (I don't recall the exact year) that Dantonio called the fake punt late in the game on 4th down to beat Notre Dame!)