University Athletic Association

[DagarmanSpartan]

Gang,

I couldn't help but post this.

In Washington Monthly's latest college rankings (which rank schools based on service, upward mobility, and research), CWRU ranked #4 in the country, and BY FAR the highest among UAA schools, and Division III schools.

Read on.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/college_guide/rankings_2013/national_university_rank.php

[ExTartanPlayer]

You guys might find this amusing:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/3/1/4038740/2013-nfl-combine-high-school-40-yard-dash-times

That's fantastic.

I wonder who is really surprised by these findings.  Not only are the times inflated, quite often, but usually the height and weight as well.  As I look at the incoming rosters at all the UAA schools, one thing is to put down what the young man might have done in high school, another one (and may be quite different) what he will be able to accomplish at this level.
I have read with great surprise some of the bios of my son's teammates in high school and the number and accolades have been totally inflated and completely untrue.

I'm surprised that they've inflated actual in-game statistics and accolades that can be verified; I found that most of my teammates were generally truthful when it came to things like that.  I'm not at all surprised about the 40 times (although I'm still amused by the article, thanks for posting).  I don't take any 40 times from high school seriously, but as wally said, it's probably still good to do this sort of "study" once in a while just for perspective.  This stuff is annoying because it has inflated expectations for all, so now any high school kid claims to run a 4.5 or 4.6 because they've read in the paper how everyone else does, and their coach knows it's recruiting suicide to admit that the kid can only run 4.8, so everyone nods and winks at the kid's hand-timed 40 from gym class as his actual 40 time.

I bet that some of the linemen actually DID get slightly slower in the 40 because some of those kids might be 60 pounds heavier by the NFL combine than they were in high school.  Much more telling, IMO, is the number of "4.4" or "4.5" guys in high school who couldn't duplicate that at the end of their college career.

casefldad, I think it's fair to list all of the accolades of your incoming freshmen (assuming that they are truthful) because that stuff all looks good on the website and publicity is a big thing in D-3 recruiting, you need stuff that sounds good on the website and listing your all-state recruits certainly qualifies.  To be sure, they are no guarantee of success in college, but what really IS, then?  Some all-state kids will crap out in college and some kids that were merely "decent" in high school will blossom in college. 

It's sillier when heights, weights, and 40 times are exaggerated...but I was part of the problem in this case (and it was only made worse once I actually GOT to college).  I was listed at "6'1" and "260" in the program at CMU for my junior and senior season.  Both numbers were rather generous (5'11" and 235ish was more accurate).  However, we couldn't admit that we started an offensive tackle who was smaller than our fullback and linebackers!  Plus, I wore a giant neck roll that added a good 15 pounds to my appearance

[ADL70]

I too was more impressed with his defensive highlights.

FWIW, I understand that CWRU's roster weights and measures come from the training staff from the preseason physicals.  Of course that doesn't mean the coaches don't influence those numbers.  What I did find interesting was the players who have gotten taller.

[ADL70]

Kickoff is out.  Hope all regulars have purchased.

As a tease, one of the "gurus" has picked CWRU for a B bid.  All that's needed is to play Linfield close and beat Trinity, WashU, and not get upset.

Another picks WUStL.  Their path, Whitewater close, beat Coe, CWRU, and Rhodes.  And not get upset.  Tougher road, it seems to me, though might make it with close loss to Coe as well.

[Pat Coleman]

If you look at how we project Coe this year ... that is a winnable game. I believe the voters tied our hands in making them preseason Top 25 -- Keith and I would not have projected them there.

[ADL70]

Is 8-2, 5-2 your and Keith's projection?

[wally_wabash]

Kickoff is out.  Hope all regulars have purchased.

As a tease, one of the "gurus" has picked CWRU for a B bid.  All that's needed is to play Linfield close and beat Trinity, WashU, and not get upset.

Another picks WUStL.  Their path, Whitewater close, beat Coe, CWRU, and Rhodes.  And not get upset.  Tougher road, it seems to me, though might make it with close loss to Coe as well.

Hmmm...seems optimistic.  There are two more pool B's this year, but a lot more teams.  I think you can plug Wesley in to one of those.  I think somebody in the MASCAC is going to go through with zero or one loss and gets one.  That leaves CWRU battling with the rest of the UAA, the SCAC (Trinity...who has a manageable schedule), the SAA, and the Indies (probably not a threat) for the last one.  CWRU is losing to Linfield and it isn't going to be close (totally different ballgame that they play up there in the top 4).  While two losses might be good enough for somebody to get that spot, CWRU's second loss (if it happens) is most likely going to happen to somebody CWRU is in direct competition with for that last Pool B (Trinity, WUStl, CMU).  I would guess that CWRU's path to the tournament is going to require an 8-1 record.  That roadie at Frostburg State probably isn't a gimme either now that I think about it. 

[D3MAFAN]

Kickoff is out.  Hope all regulars have purchased.

As a tease, one of the "gurus" has picked CWRU for a B bid.  All that's needed is to play Linfield close and beat Trinity, WashU, and not get upset.

Another picks WUStL.  Their path, Whitewater close, beat Coe, CWRU, and Rhodes.  And not get upset.  Tougher road, it seems to me, though might make it with close loss to Coe as well.

Hmmm...seems optimistic.  There are two more pool B's this year, but a lot more teams.  I think you can plug Wesley in to one of those.  I think somebody in the MASCAC is going to go through with zero or one loss and gets one.  That leaves CWRU battling with the rest of the UAA, the SCAC (Trinity...who has a manageable schedule), the SAA, and the Indies (probably not a threat) for the last one.  CWRU is losing to Linfield and it isn't going to be close (totally different ballgame that they play up there in the top 4).  While two losses might be good enough for somebody to get that spot, CWRU's second loss (if it happens) is most likely going to happen to somebody CWRU is in direct competition with for that last Pool B (Trinity, WUStl, CMU).  I would guess that CWRU's path to the tournament is going to require an 8-1 record.  That roadie at Frostburg State probably isn't a gimme either now that I think about it.

Great breakdown, as I am most likely traveling to Cleveland the weekend of the 28th, I am hoping for at least a good game and with luck, may see a game similar to that of UW-W and Buff St. of last year. I agree, Case is no lock to go 8-1, they have to be focused and play up to their potential week in and week out to get that record. Also, that Trinity vs. Case game is possible elimination game.

[ADL70]

I thought that was what I said, save I doubt Linfield will be close as well.  But maybe they aren't a morning team.

I only see Oberlin and Puget Sound as gimmes.  I wouldn't be surprised if any of the rest went either way.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think the picks accurately represent the UAA schools' respective chances.  1/6 picked Case and 1/6 picked WashU.  With the expansion of Pool B for this strange bubble year, someone has to get in, and while wally has broken down the most likely scenarios for Pool B, funny things can always happen (a la UWW going 7-3 last year...what if Wesley drops two of their first three? They are breaking in a new QB and they open the season with a couple toughies - certainly I still think they are favored, but it's conceivable that they'll lose one or more of those early games) and I think the UAA does have a puncher's chance of grabbing a B bid.

I made this comment earlier but I genuinely believe that WashU has a borderline-playoff-caliber defense.  If they survive the UWW game with confidence intact, I do think they have a chance in every game from there on, Coe included, because of that defense.  Sure, I think it's more likely that they'll end up about 4-3 entering conference play, but 6-1 is a possibility, and from there a berth is within reach.

Case, likewise, has one apparent "guaranteed loss" on the schedule in Linfield plus one other really good team in Trinity and a couple other sorta-toss-ups.  Same comment as above: I think CWRU is more likely to be 4-2 entering conference play, but 5-1 is possible, and from there a berth is within reach.

I know it's a bit of homer-ism, but I think CMU has just as good a chance at a Pool B as CWRU and WashU by virtue of the easier nonconference schedule.  With the possible exception of the game against Mercer (which, in theory, should not factor into any playoff discussion), I think CMU could be favored in every nonconference game.  Grove City is ranked higher than CMU in Kickoff, but the Tartans beat them in 2012 (although that is really a toss-up game IMO).  Ditto Allegheny.  CMU beat Catholic easily last year, and then Geneva, St. Vincent, and Westminster were in the PAC basement last season.  Again, it's no lock that CMU runs the table nonconference, but nor is it impossible, and from there, all bets are off in the conference slate.

Incredibly, best-case scenario, three UAA teams will enter conference play with 1 loss or fewer.  That's a pretty small chance, but it's at least conceivable in my mind, and it would make for a heck of a conference season.  Even if all have 1-2 losses, that would be pretty cool.  Dammit, WashU, prove me right!

I think we're in for an interesting season!

[wally_wabash]

I think the picks accurately represent the UAA schools' respective chances.  1/6 picked Case and 1/6 picked WashU.  With the expansion of Pool B for this strange bubble year, someone has to get in, and while wally has broken down the most likely scenarios for Pool B, funny things can always happen (a la UWW going 7-3 last year...what if Wesley drops two of their first three? They are breaking in a new QB and they open the season with a couple toughies - certainly I still think they are favored, but it's conceivable that they'll lose one or more of those early games) and I think the UAA does have a puncher's chance of grabbing a B bid.

I went into last year thinking that 2012 was the year that we were going to see a non-AQ league team get a Pool C bid.  Wesley!  Huntingdon!  Trinity!  Birmingham-Southern!  All fantastic teams...what I didn't count on was that they would totally consume each other in h2h play.  You can kind of see the same thing coming for CWRU.  They have the UAA teams, two of which I think are direct competition for Pool B and Trinity all on the schedule.  They have to win all of those games or be doomed to sit behind one of them in the pecking order, and there just isn't room to be behind anybody in the pecking order.  Unless the MASCAC eats itself out of a bid, in which case there might be two available after Wesley. 

On Wesley...that schedule is nasty.  Nobody has five games on the schedule like Wesley does...and Wesley does it all in a row.  Brutal.  Wesley might go 2-1 in that first three (that game in Belton is going to be ridiculous) or even 1-2 but I think they are going to bludgeon the rest of pool B with so much SOS that they can take 2 losses and be plenty safe to get one of the three invitations. 

[K-Mack]

We got us a real live UAA expert for Kickoff this year. If no one else appreciates it, I hope the regulars here do.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think the picks accurately represent the UAA schools' respective chances.  1/6 picked Case and 1/6 picked WashU.  With the expansion of Pool B for this strange bubble year, someone has to get in, and while wally has broken down the most likely scenarios for Pool B, funny things can always happen (a la UWW going 7-3 last year...what if Wesley drops two of their first three? They are breaking in a new QB and they open the season with a couple toughies - certainly I still think they are favored, but it's conceivable that they'll lose one or more of those early games) and I think the UAA does have a puncher's chance of grabbing a B bid.

I went into last year thinking that 2012 was the year that we were going to see a non-AQ league team get a Pool C bid.  Wesley!  Huntingdon!  Trinity!  Birmingham-Southern!  All fantastic teams...what I didn't count on was that they would totally consume each other in h2h play.  You can kind of see the same thing coming for CWRU.  They have the UAA teams, two of which I think are direct competition for Pool B and Trinity all on the schedule.  They have to win all of those games or be doomed to sit behind one of them in the pecking order, and there just isn't room to be behind anybody in the pecking order.  Unless the MASCAC eats itself out of a bid, in which case there might be two available after Wesley. 

On Wesley...that schedule is nasty.  Nobody has five games on the schedule like Wesley does...and Wesley does it all in a row.  Brutal.  Wesley might go 2-1 in that first three (that game in Belton is going to be ridiculous) or even 1-2 but I think they are going to bludgeon the rest of pool B with so much SOS that they can take 2 losses and be plenty safe to get one of the three invitations.

I agree with you.  I was just playing devil's advocate, as they say, pointing out that a 33 percent chance of a UAA team grabbing a Pool B berth sounds about right.  Exactly how that happens is a matter of guesswork, but one of the possible scenarios that could allow such a thing is Wesley struggling early and slipping to 7-3 overall.

I do think that a UAA representative can get there without Wesley slipping, as the third team behind Wesley and the likely MASCAC rep.  CWRU beating Trinity will be crucial for whoever the UAA hopeful is in that regard.  I'd think 9-1 CMU, 8-1 CWRU, or 9-1/8-2 WashU would have a very good chance at the third Pool B berth if any of those scenarios come to fruition.  Any of them is a longshot, but all are at least conceivable IMO.

edited to add: I also agree with you re: the B/C situation from last year.  In October, I thought, with all those decent B teams, at least one would make a dent in Pool C...until I realized that they all played each other H2H (which stands to reason, they have to play somebody, in essence Pool B just was its own "conference" last year).

[ExTartanPlayer]

We got us a real live UAA expert for Kickoff this year. If no one else appreciates it, I hope the regulars here do.

"Expert" might be too generous.  UAA "alum" is a more accurate description

[ADL70]

We got us a real live UAA expert for Kickoff this year. If no one else appreciates it, I hope the regulars here do.

Yes we do.