University Athletic Association

[ADL70]

Hansen I post for s&g's.  Not putting stock in his predictions.  Laz has been a pretty good predictor.  Maybe lags a little behind in picking up a team on the move (up or down), but has steadily moved CMU up.  And of course it soen't figure in injuries, but then I doubt Hansen has solid injury info for the 400 or so teams he rates.

I'd be ok with a 3 pt loss to WUStL  It seems that they've gotten a RB back from injury and have settled on one QB.  CMU seems to have separated themselves by going 6-0 and I think that is reflected in the ratings and predictions.

In further Draddy news, Aaron Lewis of CMU, Drew Wethington of WUStL, and Benjamin Potts of UChi were also semi-finalists.  33 d3 players on the list.

[BDTartan]

33 out of how many?

Maybe you could put the playoff scenario in laymen's terms for me.  I posted over on the General Football board about CMU getting in.

I don't fully understand it all yet, but I can't see how those guys can really be stabbing in the dark for Pool B bids when they are talking about 6 teams winning out.  It sounds to me like most of the playoff predictions come down to teams fulfilling prophecies.  I also seem to grasp the concept that in any given year there may be one or more deserving teams that don't get in because they don't have enough teams in their conference and don't have the SOS needed to give them a B or C bid.  This all seems confusing to me.  I guess I only ask beause what if some year you get a 10-0 CMU and a 9-1 CWRU??  Somebody is staying home right?

[ADL70]

148 total semi-finalists from all of college football.  I'm afraid Brew's grades won't get to the final 15.

A 9-1 second place UAA team could get in through Pool C.  Perhaps that's how the Whitworth-Linfield loser gets in.

Of the six teams in the Bob.Gregg post in Pool B, Whitworth and Linfield will meet and should eliminate the loser.  Rockford is not worthy and will probaly lose to CC anyway.

Right now Whitworth has the lowest SOS of the six, but that goes up after they play Whitworth.

Maybe to put it in perspective, how many bowl game matchups are being talked about now?  Another perspective is that until last year there were 4 fewer slots and not that long ago there were only 16.  So fewer worthy teams get left out than before.  Anothe anology is the DI BB tournament where some major conference 5th or 6th teams would be stronger than the lower conference AQs.

The forecasts are all based on what the prognosticators expect to happen.  Then too is the cred that comes with being in the playoffs recently.

Hope this helps or even addresses what you were asking.  Win out and I don't think there's a problem.

As a primer have you read the FAQ for playoffs from the front page link?

[BDTartan]

Thanks for the info, it helps somewhat, but I can't help but think that there are too many "numbers" involved in the process.  Numbers don't always tell the story.  One of the main reasons I really asked is what if CMU wins the UAA with a 3-0 record but has 1 loss to a down Thiel team??  What then, do they still sneak in with a Pool C bid?

148 huh?  they cut from that to 15 and then name a winner?  Interesting.

No, I haven't read the FAQ for playoffs yet, but I intend to tomorrow.

[BDTartan]

Still waiting for Adobe to download so I can read up on this stuff.

Interesting that Mulkern being injured isn't mentioned in the article for the UChi game on CMU's site.  Can't say that UChi doesn't know about it, but when preparing for CMU I don't think their QB is a focus for opposing defenses.

[ADL70]

The only way the OHSAA system is simple is that they print out the ranking from the computer by region and it's easy to see who the top eight are.  But the calculation of the ranking with the second level points is anything but simple.  That's why a computer does it.  And that system is all numbers.

When you get Adobe downloaded, there's a post from Ralph Turner back in September with a link to the NCAA Playoff Handbook.  It lists the selection criteria.  In years past I think the NCAA issued regional rankings later in the year (about now).

My recollection is that in years past those criteria were not always followed as written.

[BDTartan]

Yeah, I've still got about 3 hours before Adobe is finished so I may not read any of it until tomorrow.

I always knew that OHSAA second and third level points were complicated, but under that system if you took care of the games that you knew you had to take care of then second and third level points really didn't factor in.  Those seemed to help the bubble teams the most.

Still no word on Shey from UChi??

[ADL70]

The student newpaper describes Schey's injury as "recurring."  New edition comes out tomorrow will check if it says anything new.

[BDTartan]

Yeah, I still haven't heard anything on Pleotzner's injury either.  He will be a big boost in the middle of the D if Shey is able to play.

[ADL70]

FWIW Schey is in the two-deep, Mulkern and Pleotzner are not

[BDTartan]

FWIW?? 

Well that sucks, I guess Ploetzner's injury was more severe than I thought.  Last I knew he had some kind of calf injury.  Hasn't played since F&M.

[ADL70]

For What It's Worth

[BDTartan]

Okay, sorry, not with it tonight.  All this rain gets me befuddled.  I hope Shey doesn't decide to come back in a big way.

[BDTartan]

Finally read the playoff handbook.  I see the point structure for the in-region games.  With all of CMU's games being in-region I can't see them being left out with a 10-0 record.

[ADL70]

Here's to a great game tomorrow for CMU and especially for your brother!!!