FB: Upper Midwest Athletic Conference

[GU1999]

I wonder if we are just seeing an anomaly in the roster posted on line.  In late July they were public in their expectation that they had an incoming class of 40 incoming freshman.

https://athletics.crown.edu/news/2022/7/28/football-ready-to-welcome-in-one-of-the-largest-recruiting-classes-in-program-history.aspx

[AO]

I wonder if we are just seeing an anomaly in the roster posted on line.  In late July they were public in their expectation that they had an incoming class of 40 incoming freshman.

https://athletics.crown.edu/news/2022/7/28/football-ready-to-welcome-in-one-of-the-largest-recruiting-classes-in-program-history.aspx

Looks like that might have been the case, they're up to 50 players now.

[02 Warhawk]

Hey all, I'm probably gonna start up another fan poll again this year. As always, shoot me a message if you're in interested in participating. In years past we've always focused on "West" teams. However, with new regional realignment I think we'll just focus on Region 6 teams for the fan poll. Let me know if you want in.

Much appreciated!

[GU1999]

Martin Luther (2021 UMAC 5-1)

2022 Roster (players currently listed) -50 (2021 - 63)
Freshmen on roster - 17
Returning 2021 UMAC 1st Team Offense - 1 of 3
Returning 2021 UMAC 1st Team Defense - 1 of 6

[GU1999]

https://umacathletics.com/news/2022/8/29/football.aspx

[Baldini]

https://umacathletics.com/news/2022/8/29/football.aspx

Greenville is and should be the overwhelming favorite to win the title. The only question mark for them is at QB and with all the returning players on offense it may not even matter who takes snaps for them. Don't think anyone in the UMAC can hang with them this season.

Northwestern is the 2nd team in the conference this year for me, they have a solid group of leadership coming back for them this fall with Clapper, Schultz and Kulinski leading the way. The Drinken to Burk combo could be lethal in UMAC play.

Minnesota-Morris is 3rd in my prediction of the final standings, Coach Hoffmann has made steady progress in his 4 years there and will make a run at a strong season that could even finish in the top 2 if things break right. Senior QB Reeb might be the best returning QB in the UMAC this season and that alone will make them tough to handle in most conference games.

Martin Luther College is getting a lot of love from the coaches in the preview poll, but man did they lose a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. RB Carson Oestreich is a beast who doubles as the UMAC 100-meter champion, but he will need to find running room behind a rebuilt OL. Add in rebuilding most of the defense and a 1st year college coach and there are a lot of hills to climb for this team.

Westminster falls into the 5th spot for me. RB Dobbins coming back for a 5th season in big for them, but he lost most of his help from a year ago on the offensive side of the ball. I think the defense can be fairly solid this year with Scales and Brandt leading a stout front 7. This is a team that could get better as the season goes along.

Crown and Finlandia will battle to stay out of the cellar. I thought Crown might have a chance to compete at the middle of the conference this season if they could retain their better players, but QB Jared Gilmore and WR Cole Mistretta not returning is a major blow to their progress. Retaining players is an issue for Finlandia also. One thing they have going for them is that Coach DuFrane is a hell of a defensive coach and I believe he will find a way to keep many games close. Add in a Freshman class of 35 with many from footballing states Florida, Louisiana and Texas and the Lions might just surprise a team or two along the way.

It may not be an exciting title race this season with little mystery who the dominate team is, but the battles for 2 through 7 should bring a good many fun and competitive game.

With every team opening with 4 non-conference games, wins will probably not be commonplace early in the year, fact is Greenville might be the only team favored to even win a non-conference game. But we never know who may surprise us from year to year and I greatly look forward to another season starting this weekend.

Best of luck to all the team and may everyone stay healthy this season.       

[GU1999]

My half informed preseason poll

1. Greenville
2. University of Minnesota - Morris
3. University of Northwestern
4. Martin Luther
5. Westminster
6. Crown
7. Finlandia

[GU1999]

GU opens at Millikin on Saturday at 1p.

I have previously laid out the state of GU and its strong returning class.   When tying to assess the 2022 version of this match up, I found the following on the CCIW board.  I didn't know how to quote from one board to another so I grabbed the following.  Thank you USEE for putting this together. 

"For Millikin: 119 on the roster
13 seniors
7 juniors
32 soph
67 Freshmen

1 returning starter on offense, 2 upperclassmen in the OLine and almost no experience in that group as the entire OLine from 2021 is gone. They have zero upperclassmen QB's or RB's and their Soph QB threw 12 passes last year. No RB's with any carries in games last year return. They have some WR's with some game experience.

On Defense they have 5 returning starters (2 DL, 1 LB, 2 DB).

Unless the freshmen class is spectacular, I think Millikin is in for a very tough year on the field against many of the CCIW teams."

Edge GU, but I fully expect that this one comes down to the wire. 

GU - 36
BIG BLUE - 29

[Baldini]

Greenville at Millikin - This game feels like the UMAC's best chance to get a win this weekend. Greenville surprised them last season at home, but as GU1999 noted the player loses were many for Millikin from a year ago and even with this one on the road a loaded Greenville squad should probably go on the road and get the W.

Augsburg at Northwestern - Even though I'm bullish on the Eagles this season I think Augsburg might be too physical for Northwestern out of the gate. Northwestern as a history of late of starting the season slowly, hopefully that isn't the case on Saturday, and they can keep this one close. Keep it close and anything can happen from there.   

Macalester at Minnesota-Morris - I so want to pick M-M in this spot, but just think the passing game for Macalester will pull this one out in a shootout. Might be the most entertaining game of the UMAC non-conference games this weekend.

Concordia-Wisconsin at Martin Luther - This was a great game a year ago in Wisconsin and if MLC hadn't lost their starting QB in the 2nd quarter they may well have won that day. This year is a different story though, even with the game in New Ulm the Knights will be an underdog. Concordia-Wis. returns most well everyone and MLC is rebuilding many of the position groups and being led by a young first year coach. Hoping for the best here, just not feeling it though.

Westminster (Mo.) at Knox - If Westminster is going to spring the upset here, they probably need a big day from their defense. They have a lot of new pieces on the offense that may take some time to jell. Thinking Knox holds service at home in this one.

Benedictine at Finlandia - This one might get a little ugly by the time it is over. Benedictine looks like they may well be one of the top dogs in the NACC and Finlandia is starting from ground level again this season. Looking for some small victories to build off of in this one.

Hamline at Crown - Surprisingly this was a fun shootout a year ago, but Crown doesn't bring the same players back from their passing attack for this one. A lot of unknowns on both sides of the ball for Crown and it may take a little time for them.

Overall, for the UMAC, one win would be a good day, two wins would be a great day, three would be an unbelievable day. Anything more would be a historic day.       

[Baldini]

Well, it wasn't a historic day. It wasn't an unbelievable day. It wasn't a great or good day. It was just a day in the life of UMAC non-conference football play and when the dust settled the composite was an 0-7 record for the weekend. As UMAC football goes we look for the positives and things to build on and I think there a fair amount of that to come from Saturday's action.

Greenville - The Millikin game had a role reversal feel to it, last year Millikin rolled into Greenville like all they needed to do was show up to get the victory and Greenville ambushed them for a huge win for their program. This year it was Greenville that may have been overconfident and a young Millikin team threw the first big blows and never looked back to take the victory. I think a real positive from the game for Greenville was that Peyton Bates was functional at QB in his first start at the college level. Millikin was not going to let Paul Garrett beat them a second time and stacked the box to limit him to 62 yards in rushing. Against many teams in the UMAC it won't matter, but against some of the better teams Bates is going to have to make plays to win those games. Still the team to beat for the title.

Northwestern - The most impressive showing of the weekend by a UMAC team was Northwestern against Augsburg. They matched the physicality of Augsburg and played them tough all the way to turning in over on downs in the final seconds in the redzone while nearing the game tying score. Despite a couple of turnovers Drinken probably played the best of all the UMAC QB's Saturday. Drinken was 22-34 with 307 yards and a pair of TDs. Beau Burks had 9 catches for 222 yards and one score, this Drinken to Burks combo is going to put up silly numbers this season. I didn't believe anyone could knock off Greenville to start the year, but Northwestern has a chance and the match-up will be played on Northwestern's field this year.

Minnesota-Morris - Not really sure what to think of the Macalester game. I believed Macalester's passing game was going to be a problem, but I also thought M-M would get enough stops to make it close to the end. The Cougars rushed for 250 yards, but was that product of a team playing with a big lead and inviting the run or is that the rushing attack we will see week in and week out? Next week against Hamline should give us a better idea of where M-M is at, but for now I think they are still holding the 3rd spot in the UMAC pecking order.

Martin Luther College - The Concordia (Wis.) game kind of went about how I expected it would with a SR. heavy Concordia team against a team with a lot of new faces in the starting lineups for MLC. A positive for MLC was the front 7 and the run defense, the box score will read 130 yards rushing allowed, but much of that come late with the defense wore down. The CBs are a real concern, but the DL looked good in game 1. Carson Oestreich was his usual amazing self with 146 yards rushing on 36 carries, yes 36 carries. That number highlights the biggest issue for the Knights after week one and may well be the biggest issue all season. Because of the poor QB play about the only play they have is to stick it in Oestreich's belly and hope he makes something happen on his own. QB Nordle threw the ball 12 times with the other team catching 4 of them, with one of them being an 88-yard pick six as time expired on the first half and giving Concordia-Wis. and 28-7 lead and the game was basically over at that point. Add in a fumble and that is 5 turnovers from the QB spot and with only one other QB on the roster there may not be an option to fixing the problem with someone else. MLC still remains in the 4th spot for now.

Westminster - This game with Knox played out a little like I thought it would. I thought Westminster would be offensively challenged early in the season, just not quit that challenged. They didn't get their second 1st down until midway through the 3rd quarter. The defense played well until they started to get gassed, but they should continue to be a strength for Westminster all season. FR. QB Bryce Westerfeld had a tough day in his first start, but things should only get better for him with playing time. We knew the offense was going to be a process. Wavering a bit but going to leave them in that 5th spot for now.

Crown - Losing to Hamline was not a surprise but Crown brought a ringer QB into the UMAC season mix and it will be interesting to see how this team grows and develops with him under center. Elijah Odom started his college career at Texas Southern and then transferred to Clark Atlanta, a division 2 school where he was the starting QB last season. Not going to get into the details of why he ended up at Crown but he did have some criminal issues in the spring that led to his departure from Clark Atlanta. In a conference where teams have a hard time finding even serviceable QB's, having one is a big leg up on most others. Leaving them 6th for now but thinking there is potential for better here.   

Finlandia - Another game that went as most thought it might. The good news is that might have been the toughest opponent they see this season, bad news they are all going to be tough opponents this season. The highlight of the day for Finlandia was on their first drive when Hunter Miles hit Raiden Holdness for an 85-yard scoring strike, and they had themselves a 7-3 lead. Coach DuFrance has his work cut out there, but they couldn't ask for a better leader for the situation. Baby steps. Putting them in the 7th spot after week one.

                             

[jstoll19]

I'm a '21 UNW football alum thats new to this page but I've listened to the ATN podcast and been meaning to join this. I was at the UNW game on Saturday and they looked much improved from last year. This game was much closer than I thought it would be. I think the thing that hurt the Eagles the most was that in the 3rd their starting center went out. The backup that came in rolled a few snaps back to Drinken that gave Augsburg the ball back. UNW should be a legit threat in the UMAC this year for the first time since Coach Talley left.

[Pat Coleman]

I was kind of surprised that Northwestern was picked behind Morris in the preseason coaches' poll. That seemed to be low for me.

Good luck this season!

[Baldini]

I'm a '21 UNW football alum thats new to this page but I've listened to the ATN podcast and been meaning to join this. I was at the UNW game on Saturday and they looked much improved from last year. This game was much closer than I thought it would be. I think the thing that hurt the Eagles the most was that in the 3rd their starting center went out. The backup that came in rolled a few snaps back to Drinken that gave Augsburg the ball back. UNW should be a legit threat in the UMAC this year for the first time since Coach Talley left.

Welcome aboard 87, look forward to your thoughts and opinions on Northwestern and the UMAC throughout the course of the season. 

[jstoll19]

I was kind of surprised that Northwestern was picked behind Morris in the preseason coaches' poll. That seemed to be low for me.

Good luck this season!

I was very surprised too. I know they've been improving over the last few years, but I still don't think they're to the level of Greenville and UNW. I'm also very interested to see how Martin Luther does this year with the new coach.

[Baldini]

This week's schedule and what Massey thinks, favored team bolded.

Finlandia @ Concordia Chicago - 28-10 with a 91%-win probability.
Crown @ Carleton - 42-7/97%
Iowa Wesleyan @ Westminster - 28-21/69%
Minnesota-Morris @ Hamline - 35-14/87%
Northwestern @ Concordia Wisconsin - 31-14/86%
Rockford @ Greenville - 37-31/62%
Martin Luther @ Macalester - 31-24/66%

Not surprising that Greenville is the only UMAC team favored to win but am surprised by the numbers for Northwestern and Minnesota-Morris. Thinking both those games should be closer than those scores and win probabilities should be about 20% less.

This week there are 3 games that will have common opponents from last week and should help define the UMAC pecking order. Does Minnesota-Morris deal with Hamline better than Crown did or does M-M belong in the bottom tier of the conference rather than the top tier? Does Northwestern play Concordia (Wis.) tougher than MLC did and stamp themselves as true contenders or are they a middle of the pack team? Can MLC handle Macalester better than M-M or are they more bottom tier than contender? It's early in the season and there is a lot of teams growing and developing, yet this weekend will shed a little more light onto what each team may be and may become.