Top 25 rankings

[Pat Coleman]

I kinda figured that went without saying. Why else would they?

[DutchFan2004]

K-Mack

Sorry if that offended you.  I agree that the four highly rated teams are a killer schedule.  No one can accuse them of not wanting to play the best.  That has long been a philosophy at Norte Dame and it seems to work for them.  Not saying that they are in Notre Dames class just using it as a philosophy example.  Some coaches and AD's want to play the best and I have no problem with that.  It just struck me funny that Waldorf was on there.  Sorry it was an off the cuff remark that I probably shouldn't have made.

[DutchFan2004]

Ralph Turner,


Thanks for the update on how the top 25 are selected.  I knew that there was some reason out there.  Your explanation cleared it all up for me.  Thanks for that valuable explanation. 

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

This week's AFCA poll was released.

Ithaca dropped from #6 to #19 with their loss to Lycoming.

Coe and Carthage dropped out with their losses.  Augustana (#24) and Wesley (#25) replaced them.

One of many head-scratchers was UW-La Crosse falling from #12 to #22 with their six-point loss to #6 UW-Whitewater.

North Central jumped nine spots (21 to 12) with their win over Carthage.

http://afca.com/lev3.cfm/1084

[smedindy]

I did my top 25 power ranking compendium (again, for grins and giggles) and it seems to have calmed down a bit - but many of these results are at loggerheads with the D3 top 25.

The computer ratings seem to believe in St. Olaf a lot more than the pollsters. Massey and La-Z have them in the top 10 and they have a good SOS.

The ratings seem to loathe Bridgewater, W & J  and Occidental all due to SOS issues.

So here we go:

1. St. John's
2. Wisc - Whitewater
3. Mt. Union
4. Linfield
5. North Central
6. St. Olaf
7. Wesley
8. Hardin - Simmons
9. Central
10. Rowan
11. Augustana
12. Wheaton
13. Concordia - Moorhead
14. Coe
15. John Carroll
16. Wisc - Oshkosh
17. Monmouth
18. Wabash
19. Ohio Northern
20. Delaware Valley
21. Trinity (TX)
22. Thiel
23. Salisbury
24. Hobart
25. Union

Others in the top 25
26. Mary Hardin - Baylor (most power rankings agree)
27. Wisc - LaCrosse (3-2 knocks them here)
30. St. John Fisher
34. Ithaca
41. Wash & Jeff
45. Occidental
59. Bridgewater

And for the other end of the spectrum:

219. Principia
218. Mass - Maritime
217. Nichols
216. Becker
215. Concorida (Ill.)
214. Lewis & Clark
213. Tri - State
212. Juniata
211. Mount Ida
210. Macalester

[DutchFan2004]

smedindy,


Your computer seems to love my Dutch more than I do.  Can you tell me what or how it processes the info that you feed to it.  I just do not see Central at #9.  I just wonder what it measures.

[smedindy]

It's a mix of three power ratings, a SOS formula, and a wrinkle I put in myself. Central has two great power ratings (Massey 11, La-Z 14), but what helps them is going 6-1 with the 14th best SOS.

[DutchFan2004]

Ok I'm a dummy.  What is a Massey and a La-Z, I think sos is strength of Scedule correct

[smedindy]

Massey and La-Z are two power ratings I use, and SOS is strength of schedule.

[K-Mack]

Rule No. 1 of message boards. Never take anything personally.

No harm done. If it wasn't right there on the screen, I probably wouldn't remember half the stuff I say in message board formats.

K-Mack

Sorry if that offended you. 

[K-Mack]

Smed,
I can't figure out how to say this without it sounding worse than I mean it ...

But what do you think the compendium proves?

(Asking as a legitimate question, not a tough-guy defender of the D3 poll)

The ratings are very complimentary/skewed for teams in good conferences, but since St. Olaf hasn't played the MIAC's big dogs yet, I can see why pollsters would reserve judgement.

With the exception of the extreme ends of the spectrum, most good teams, no matter the conference, can compete with most of the other good teams in the nation.

Look at the first round of the playoffs a lot of years. Champions of not-so-great conferences hang in there all the time.

In other words, I think the ratings ... especially early on as Massey admits ... are too skewed towards SOS.

LaVerne was No. 3 in the country one week. Nuff said.

[smedindy]

I don't know if it proves anything more than what the top 25 poll does. What it does for me is validate my feelings about some teams while eliminating others from my consideration as a top team. I tend to want data (since I'm a fan of sabermetrics in baseball) and neutral measures of greatness or heinousness.

Last year when I did this I thought by the last two weeks of the season I was fairly spot on - even though it still disagreed with the poll in some cases.

I think this is about the right time for Massey to start making sense (which is why the first time I did these I realized it was too early) as everyone has played at least five games. As it goes along, it will make more sense. Again, the method was developed for use with the D-1 basketball power ratings to help me forecast the NCAA tourney teams, but it's adaptable to football.

It's also a great way for me to learn more about all of the D-3 schools. I did this for D-3 basketball last year as well and that was fun, though more of a chore. And I may be an idiot, but I really care how the NCAC stacks up, and if Hiram and the like are really as bad as they look (sadly, the answer is yes). So it's interesting for me to see that Gustavus Adolphus is 149th and King's is 113th. But I won't post that many.

This is all in fun, anyway.

[Toby Taff]

Last year when I did this I thought by the last two weeks of the season I was fairly spot on - even though it still disagreed with the poll in some cases.


This is all in fun, anyway.

If you did this last year, what Did UMHB look like on paper in week one of the playoffs?

And Enjoy the fun!

[smedindy]

If I recall - I had UMHB in my top 3 to 5. I think I have it saved on my work computer.

[smedindy]

Indeed, I had UMHB as #5.