Top 25 rankings

[smedindy]

LaCrosse is too high up and lost to too good of a team to fall completely out...as far as I can tell.

[Mr. Ypsi]

There's been speculation on how far MUC will drop (and I'd agree that 4-6 is probably a good guess), but none on the reverse question: how far will ONU jump?  I'll take a stab at all the way to 8-10, though that would mean jumping an AWFULLY lot of very good (in some cases, undefeated) teams.

[ktroutvon]

I wanted to retract my rant from yesterday (I don't like the quote system b/c I think people manipulate and abuse it so anyone interested will have to go back and check it).  People who played for Coach Cragg eraly in his tenure take a lot of ownership for the success that the program has had the last five years.  Prior to the mid-90's the school had one or maybe two +.500 seasons in the prior two decades and so consistently getting to .500 or a little better paved the way for the playoff teams and getting over the hump against teams like IC and Union. 

Hobart had a bad day.  D3 voters and experts, do your worst.  They have a week off and then play Union.  Win that game and they are in the playoffs.   

[OldPhart]

I figure that I might know the answer to this question already -  but I am curious as to the depth of analysis that voters get into in their rankings of the teams.  My guess is that it is highly variable among the voters, but I assume that everyone at least goes beyond the wins and losses and looks at the strength of schedule and recent playoff history.

My question is do voters actually dig through the stats and the play-by-play on the games that they were unable to attend or listen to?  If so, to what depth?  I know there is a time crunch and that I recognize that you are allowed to have a life - I am just curious as to how deep the analysis goes.  A couple of "for examples" would be interesting.  TIA.

[Pat Coleman]

OldPhart, this is what the info looks like that we send to the voters. What they do with it is their choice, but we provide them with a good amount of the info you suggest straight out of the gate:

No. 30 Alma (5-2):
Sep 10    HOME    Aurora (4-3)    W    48-12
Sep 17    HOME    Wittenberg (3-4)    W    38-27
Sep 24    AWAY    Tiffin (4-5, D-II)    L    56-23
Oct 01    HOME    Olivet (3-4)    W    49-24
Oct 08    AWAY    Adrian (5-2)    W    10-13
Oct 15    HOME    Tri-State (0-7)    W    42-26
Oct 22    AWAY    Kalamazoo (3-4)    L    38-37
Oct 29    HOME    Wisconsin Lutheran (1-6)        -

No. 21 Augustana (6-1):
Sep 03    HOME    Central (6-1)    L    24-25
Sep 10    AWAY    Catholic (3-4)    W    26-52
Sep 24    HOME    UW-Platteville (1-6)    W    45-14
Oct 01    HOME    North Park (3-4)    W    50-6
Oct 08    AWAY    13 Carthage (5-2)    W    0-7
Oct 15    HOME    Illinois Wesleyan (2-5)    W    41-15
Oct 22    AWAY    Millikin (4-3)    W    0-23
Oct 29    HOME    Elmhurst (5-2)        -

No. 19 Bridgewater (Va.) (5-1):
Sep 03    HOME    McDaniel (4-3)    L    35-36
Sep 10    AWAY    Shenandoah (1-6)    W    20-49
Sep 17    AWAY    Hanover (3-5)    W    42-56
Oct 01    AWAY    22 Hampden-Sydney (5-2)    W    24-31
Oct 15    HOME    Guilford (2-5)    W    62-46
Oct 22    AWAY    Emory and Henry (0-7)    W    17-31
Oct 29    AWAY    Washington and Lee (5-2)        -

No. 28 Capital (5-2):
Sep 03    AWAY    Wittenberg (3-4)    W    0-54
Sep 17    AWAY    Otterbein (5-2)    L    17-14
Sep 24    HOME    Heidelberg (0-7)    W    66-0
Oct 01    AWAY    3 Mount Union (6-1)    L    42-24
Oct 08    HOME    Marietta (3-4)    W    41-10
Oct 15    AWAY    Muskingum (1-6)    W    13-30
Oct 22    HOME    Baldwin-Wallace (3-4)    W    34-0
Oct 29    AWAY    Ohio Northern (6-1)        -

[Pat Coleman]

Poll posted.

[wc2viking]

Wow, UW-Whitewater leaps to 2nd, overtaking St. John's and Rowan (among others).  Must have been that big win over a top-notch UW-Platteville. 

Also, UW-Lacrosse still in the top 25.  I know they've lost to tough teams but enough is enough.  UW-Eau Claire has only lost to Whitewater (#2) and St. John's (#3) and they BEAT LAX.  Seems like they deserve a spot in the top 25.

Otherwise, poll looks fair to me.

[Hawks88]

WooHoo!! We got a vote.  Way to go Hawks!

[Ric]

Pat I'm kinda surprised to see Mount at 6th.  I thought I might be going to high with them at 7, which is where I think I had them, but that felt right.  I'd be interested to know what the highest is someone had them and the lowest if it is not too much trouble to look that up or if you share that type of stuff.

[Pat Coleman]

They were #3 on one ballot, #4 on two ballots, #5 on two.

I think part of the problem is perception -- regardless of the loss, can a voter really justify someone like Delaware Valley or Occidental ahead of Mount Union? That's hard to imagine.

[Ron Boerger]

WooHoo!! We got a vote.  Way to go Hawks!

And here I was going to have the "Huntingdon Voter Death Watch" in the column until someone finally did give them a vote.  So much for that idea!   

[BomberJeff]

Wow, a lot to digest in this week's poll.

Certainly the big question now seems to be who is the true number 2, as 3 teams are within 5 points of the spot.  Its a wide open race for the BCS bowl spot alongside Linfeild  .

I had a feeling Mount Union wouldn't drop a great amount (6 sounds right), but I wonder about the fall for Hardin-Simmons.  I mean, if UMHB is considered better than ONU, then it would only follow that UMHB would get a bigger win in my mind.  No matter, doesn't make a major difference in my book.

A lot of flipping spots in the 12 to 16 portion.  North Central (up 2), Concordia-Moorhead (down 1), and Saint John Fisher (down 1) rotates around, and W&J and Ithaca switch places, and all of this while all 5 teams won.

Wesley drops out.  No suprise there.
Wabash moves in.  No suprise there either.

UW- La Crosse holds on.  I'm not suprised (11 to out is a rather huge drop), but at 3-3, I wouldn't be suprised they did a slow drop off to Coe or Capital in the next few weeks.

It looks like a fun few weeks to the playoffs are in store.  I can't wait.

[Phife]

Mt Union and HSU fell just as I thought they would!

The pollsters are better than we give them credit for!

[redswarm81]

Apropos of not much but teams 20 - 50, it seems clear that the vast majority of d3Football.com poll voters don't look at the scores for those "second tier" teams, they only look at the records.

Even a quick comparison of the scores of Union v. RPI makes it clear that RPI has a much stronger record against common opponents, as Pat the Guru mentioned in his Week 8 Wrapup blog.  I realize--and the d3Football.com poll voters realize--that common opponent analysis is dangerous, but if they don't know anything about the teams, it's all the d3Football.com poll voters have.    Union getting 22 points to RPI's 2 means that every Union voter only looked at the records, and didn't look at the scores.

[DutchFan2004]

Pat,

Was wondering what your thoughts are on Central and Coe.  With Coes loss to Wartburg they fell behind Central yet Coe beat Central.  Do you feel that that has more to do with when Central and Coe played and how the teams are performing at this time than actual head to head results.  I was also wondering where some of the voters are putting them.  98 divided by 25 is less than 4. Some voters must think they are better and some must think worse or they would be about 22 with a 4 average.  Just curious what they are thinking about them at this point.