Top 25 rankings

[Pat Coleman]

DutchFan2004, we're not saying it makes a difference for anyone else except Springfield in this conversation.

[FranElia]

A couple of things:

1) Yes, Cortland played on grass at home through the 2001 season. As far as I remember, Union was always turf (or at least since the early 1990s). They played on the harder turf until recently.

2) I pulled up some info that may be interesting, although I'm not sure what it proves.

SPRINGFIELD vs. CORTLAND (1987 - 2000)
(The teams did play before 1987; they haven't played since 2000)

(Games at Springfield)
1987 - W 48-28
1989 - L 0-10
1991 - W 20-13
1993 - W 55-33
1995 - W 49-26 (ECAC)
1996 - L 30-33 (OT) (didn't score in OT)
1998 - W 62-34
2000 - W 48-28

TOTALS AT SPRINGFIELD: 6-2 record, 312 total points (39.0 pts/game)

(Games at Cortland)
1988 - L 3-7 (played in snow)
1990 - L 14-41
1992 - L 6-26
1994 - L 0-35
1997 - L 8-24
1999 - L 18-21

TOTALS AT CORTLAND: 0-6 record, 49 total points (8.2 pts/game)

I can't remember off the top of my head what the weather conditions were like at Cortland for the 1990-99 games, although I do remember one game played in the rain. Still, Cortland's point totals in those games reflect the difficulty Springfield had adjusting to the field and weather compared to the team used to the grass.

Again, I don't know if this proves that much, but I think it's interesting to show the totals. I think I've seen all but one of the games in the series since 1992. From a personal standpoint, it did appear that Springfield was a much different team on grass than on turf in terms of execution and comfort level.


Fran Elia
Cortland SID

[Pat Coleman]

Indeed -- points per game is an excellent measure that hasn't been mentioned by those trying to tell us the Springfield offense is the same on any surface.

[PrideSportBBallGuy]

ok, but Springfield wasn't a d3team until 1995.  How long has courtland been a d3team?

Anything out of that timeframe can't be compared. Springfield in the two years, they played at Courtland thier records those 4-5 and 4-6 respectively. So they weren't even good teams to begin with.  1995, 1996, 1998, 2000 the teams were good that year.  All those years they had winning records (8-2, 6-4, 9-2, 11-2)

[union89]

This Springfield/Turf/Grass arguement has gone on for soooo long, I forget which side of the fence I started on!!!!   

[Pat Coleman]

I don't know why a consistent series between teams isn't relevant -- regardless of how many scholarships Springfield offered it seemed they performed worse offensively at Cortland than they did against Cortland at home.

[Mr. Ypsi]

No, we don't, and I don't have the time to go through them all. I am content with my personal eyewitness testimony, backed up by others who have seem them play.

7-5 on grass that is a .583 win percentage on the road (of course on grass) Coach Delong as a .582  career win percentage at Springfield.  So a 7-5 record on grass is not enough to convince me they have a problem on grass.

When it's all done you better come up with a better reasoning than this where you compare 12 games to a coach's 20-some year career. That isn't college-level work.

Well if you want to use statistics, they do scientific election polls with only samples of 300 some people.  We are expected to believe those polls represent the people. I never do. I took 12 games out of 232 games.  It is not a scientific sample (not even saying it is), but a much bigger one in comparison. People use sample sizes much that are smaller compared to the sample size I used, so I can see where your arguement lies.  I also don't expect you to believe the numbers, as I don't with polls.  To say it isn't college work is absurd.  To say it isn't a good arguement I could agree with.

Not correct.  The effectiveness of a (random) sample in predicting the characteristics of a population is (surprisingly to laymen) almost unaffected by the size of the population; it depends nearly entirely on the size of the sample itself, not its relative size.  12 of 232 is not even remotely close to as good as 300 out of 300,000,000 (most polls are of the 600-1500 sample size anyway).

The margin of error for a given sample size can be mathematically computed.  In principle, this size assumes an infinite universe, rather than a finite population.  The necessary sample size to achieve a desired margin of error can then be adjusted for the actual population size by a formula known as the finite population correction (fpc - I'll spare you the formula itself!).  By this it can be shown, for example, that if you needed 1,000 people to represent the entire country with a 3.5% margin of error (approximately correct), you would still need 960 people from a small city of 25,000 people for the same degree of accuracy.  A sample size of 12 just ain't gonna cut it for any population larger than about 14!

Summing up, relative sample size is virtually irrelevant; actual sample size is nearly the entire picture.  Pat was right that this just wasn't college-level work, since IMHO everyone should take a course in sampling and statistics - without it one just can't intelligently deal with modern life.  (Well done polls are remarkably accurate; alas, many are not well done.  Without such a course there is no way to know the difference, or one takes the head-in-the-sand view of "I just don't believe any of them".)

signed,

'retired stat perfessor'

[Pat Coleman]

Phew -- for a second I thought you were coming down on my post, which is certainly possible, because you have more statistical knowledge than the rest of us combined.

[labart96]

Ok, as a change of pace, TGP will go out on a limb and ask the Gurus, should this year's Hobart team be ranked in the pre-season Top 25?

On one hand, TGP thinks that based on last season's results they have "earned" a ranking (probably in the 22 or 23 range).  In all fairness, at the same time TGP can also easily come up with several arguments against Hobart's inclusion in this year's pre-season Top 25 (graduation of Mizro and several key offensive and defensive players).

Regardless, at least we FINALLY have a 10 game regular season schedule again (and TGP likes the pick up of CMU as a non-conf game, even if TGP would prefer to see us play an E8 team like nearby IC, SJF or even SC due to the strong concentration of students at Hobart from Mass).

[Pat Coleman]

They'll be talked about and I will definitely consider them for my ballot but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in the 26-30 range.

Depends too much on what other teams have coming back, though.

[labart96]

They'll be talked about and I will definitely consider them for my ballot but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in the 26-30 range.

Depends too much on what other teams have coming back, though.

Fair enough Pat.  Thx for the feedback.

TGP is of the opinion that this could be a big year for RPI with Robertson being in the starting QB role for the past couple of seasons. 

[realistic]

ok, but Springfield wasn't a d3team until 1995.  How long has courtland been a d3team?

Anything out of that timeframe can't be compared. Springfield in the two years, they played at Courtland thier records those 4-5 and 4-6 respectively. So they weren't even good teams to begin with.  1995, 1996, 1998, 2000 the teams were good that year.  All those years they had winning records (8-2, 6-4, 9-2, 11-2)

don't really see how D-II or D-III makes a difference for your argument.  I think Fran cited a perfect example that you are trying to ignore since it crushes your argument.  I have said this all along and cited the 2000 (or 99) IC Springfield game that ended 45-42 IC.  SC tends to put up huge points at home onthe concrete turf and less on the road...especially on grass.

[union89]

They'll be talked about and I will definitely consider them for my ballot but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in the 26-30 range.

Depends too much on what other teams have coming back, though.

Fair enough Pat.  Thx for the feedback.

TGP is of the opinion that this could be a big year for RPI with Robertson being in the starting QB role for the past couple of seasons. 

That and Hobart & Union are looking at big time rebuilding years.

['gro]

They'll be talked about and I will definitely consider them for my ballot but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in the 26-30 range.

Depends too much on what other teams have coming back, though.

Fair enough Pat.  Thx for the feedback.

TGP is of the opinion that this could be a big year for RPI with Robertson being in the starting QB role for the past couple of seasons. 

it's an odd year, and we all know that RPI plays better in odd years.  at both Hobart and Union though.

To stay on topic.  I wouldn't rank RPI in the top 25 to start the year, but I'd like them to have a few votes, so somebody needs to rank them in the top 25. does that sound weird?

[K-Mack]

One factor in Springfield's apparent preference for artificial turf might be that its grass games are away from home.

A wise man once said: You gotta like Frank, short and to the point.