Top 25 rankings

[Pat Coleman]

Well, Bethel couldn't be bothered to respond to our multiple requests for information, which doesn't help. But Bethel also continues to not win a playoff game. It's nice they can occasionally beat St. John's but winning in the playoffs means you have to beat a team you may not be 100% familiar with.

If Bethel ever gets to that point it may earn the multi-year respect that St. John's and others do.

I had Wilkes 20. They bring back one key guy from that defense -- Follweiler -- and lose Serafin and Henninger. Their offense changed schemes from September to November and they don't have their starting running back or their only starting wide receiver.

They gave up seven points or less in eight of the 12 games last season. But that defense isn't going to take the field next year. And then they lost to Rowan -- granted, a tight game, but then Rowan got blown off the field at Fisher.

Capital -- does that program have a track record, or does Rocky Pentello have a track record?

[gordonmann]

K-Mack:

Didn't we take an oath not to share ballots?  Doesn't the super pinky swear mean anything?

To clarify, I had Wartburg slotted #16, Augustana at #10, Wheaton (Ill.) at #13 and North Central at #20.  And I had Wilkes #22.

[K-Mack]

2.  Rowan at #10 and Linfield at #14.  Can you say "name recognition"?

For as long as I've been doing this, Rowan, St. John's and Washington & Jefferson are consistently the most overranked teams every preseason.

St. John's and Rowan are usually ranked about 3-5 spots higher than they should be off name recognition alone (I assume; 03-04 SJU aside) but it's usually such a safe pick because even when you don't know why you're putting those teams as high as you are, they reload so consistently that by the end of the year they make you look smart.

W&J on the other hand, I think we finally got that one right. For a while they'd been one of the first teams after the break, where you kind of start running out of really legit top teams and start looking for ... well, whatever. They just always seemed to end up in the top 10 somehow and never quite live up to it.

Sort of happy that our voters weren't duped by the 30-27 UMHB playoff score last year since that last TD came in the final seconds, it was basically 30-20 which is a different-looking score. But they did win a playoff game at CNU, if I recall, so maybe this year they are ranked a little low even.

See, there I go again.

As far as Linfield, I just think if you look at the data on Whitworth, it's a hard sell to see them winning the conference again. And if you look at the NWC's track record, they're going to have a team in the mix.

I had Linfield at 20, or maybe 19, but they have their opportunity to move up right away with the Hardin-Simmons game.

Definite benefit to strong scheduling.

[K-Mack]

Well, Bethel couldn't be bothered to respond to our multiple requests for information, which doesn't help. But Bethel also continues to not win a playoff game. It's nice they can occasionally beat St. John's but winning in the playoffs means you have to beat a team you may not be 100% familiar with.

If Bethel ever gets to that point it may earn the multi-year respect that St. John's and others do.

I had Wilkes 20. They bring back one key guy from that defense -- Follweiler -- and lose Serafin and Henninger. Their offense changed schemes from September to November and they don't have their starting running back or their only starting wide receiver.

They gave up seven points or less in eight of the 12 games last season. But that defense isn't going to take the field next year. And then they lost to Rowan -- granted, a tight game, but then Rowan got blown off the field at Fisher.

Capital -- does that program have a track record, or does Rocky Pentello have a track record?

Yeah,
I didn't know if you wanted to reveal that or not about Bethel. I think that must've been a factor as well, that if people didn't have the information in that spreadsheet you worked so hard to put together, that they really couldn't find any reason to get behind Bethel.

That said, I wasn't beefing with their ranking so much as I was beefing with the disparity ... St. John's at 3 and Bethel at 24 seems like a big difference when Bethel beat them last year and both teams lost a good chunk of seniors. Bethel lost some big stars in Phil Porta and Kirby Carr though, so I could see people thinking that'll hurt them.

Hopefully they went by that and not "Bethel didn't respond." For as serious as our poll is taken, I'd hate for that to be a factor. I went and read about Bethel, but then again, I'm insane and I had already done some looking at them for the USAT SW thing.

[K-Mack]

I had Wilkes 20. They bring back one key guy from that defense -- Follweiler -- and lose Serafin and Henninger. Their offense changed schemes from September to November and they don't have their starting running back or their only starting wide receiver.

They gave up seven points or less in eight of the 12 games last season. But that defense isn't going to take the field next year. And then they lost to Rowan -- granted, a tight game, but then Rowan got blown off the field at Fisher.

See, but that's my same point. If Wilkes and Rowan were basically even (and Wilkes had Rowan beat and gave them a gift fumble, but I think the 14-13 margin at the time was a gift missed PAT) and SJF was clearly better, how is it SJF 5, Rowan 10 and Wilkes 15?

I didn't realize the actual poll had them even that close, with all the talk about Wilkes in the 20s. I know you can't vote with distance between fairly even teams as your main criteria, but I like to step back before I settle on my final ballot and see if anything jumps out at me. And if I had put Rowan at 10 and Wilkes at 20, that'd be weird, because what does Rowan have coming back that's so great, besides 5 OL and a QB that got some game experience two years ago? Those Profs won a bunch of times by the skin of their teeth last year.

In any case, they'll get to settle it on the field Week 3, so my hats off to both those teams, and to Widener and Wesley and NC Wesleyan (and UW-Lax, HSU, Linfield, UMHB, UWW, etc.) ... everyone who is playing significant out-of-conference games, not only is it a good test for your team, it's great for the fans and pollsters.

I realize I focus a lot on what teams are losing, when places like Rowan and others are so loaded there are at times players waiting in the wings who will turn out to be upgrades over the graduated seniors.

But given the choice between known (teams returning a significant batch of proven starters, like UMHB or Wesley) and unknown, I'll choose the known everytime. That way, even if I'm wrong, I know I based my vote on something tangible.

Truth be told, there's probably a good bit of gut feeling that goes into the votes and rankings.

Anyway, that's enough insight into the minds of voters ... we all enjoy the chatter too because it educates us all on the different matters at hand and helps us form stronger, more informed opinions.

Just want you readers and lurkers to know it's not just us chirping back and forth at each other. At D3football.com, we call this healthy discussion 

[DutchFan2004]

K-Mack,

Point taken about St Johns.  I will fight for my opinion about #2 however.  I think my point was sort of reinforced with UWW for the same reason that your point is valid (and everyone else's) about MUC being #1.  UWW has two losses in the last two years to MUC so maybe they deserve the #2 spot as the only team to beat them was MUC.  Till some one else beats them don't they deserve the #2 for the same reason MUC deserves the #1 spot?

Polls, schmolls. D-3 has the stones to name a true national champ, and that's all that matters, really! 

This statement does say it all.  D3 at the end of the year will have a champion.  There are squabbles about who gets a bid and who doesn't but they at least try to get the 32 best to fight for #1.  The best thing about polls IMHO is it gives us fans a chance to plead our cases and poke jabs at others.  I think your statement about MUC is a valid one.  The are the solid #1 and everyone else fights for the rest. 

[Pat Coleman]

Except, Mount Union is a No. 1 team based on the personnel they return as well. Even if they had lost to UW-Whitewater I would have voted them No. 1 and I think most would have.

[JT]

I was shocked that Rowan ended up higher than I had them in my ballot.  I approached my ballot by reviewing my final ballot from 2006.  Using the spreadsheet info, I start pulling in teams.  In each spot, I try to see if I feel if some other team belongs there.  Then I put it away for a day or two, and review and revise.

My feeling is that Rowan has equal parts potential upside as potential downside, so I thought somewhere in the middle 13-16 was appropriate.  The defense is going to be really good again, but I don't think they'll hold up over the season if the offense doesn't move the ball and score.

I thought that the one NJAC team that had we're not worthy of top 25 was done on purpose so the coaches can pump up the lack of respect issue to the players.

I also like to try and identify a quality East team that might not be getting the right National recognition.  I was right about Cortland last year, until they missed getting a playoff bid.  I think Kean is a good Top 25 sleeper candidate this year, so I put them in my pre-season top 25.

[Pat Coleman]

I was shocked that Rowan ended up higher than I had them in my ballot. 

I wasn't shocked but I was definitely disappointed. Rowan is too high based on what's coming back.

Cortland returns only four defensive starters from last year (two cornerbacks, strong safety and one defensive lineman). Offensively, they lose their top running back, top two receivers and four starting offensive linemen from last year. I don't think Cortland was playing games with us.

[JT]

I was shocked that Rowan ended up higher than I had them in my ballot. 

I wasn't shocked but I was definitely disappointed. Rowan is too high based on what's coming back.

Well with CNU, Wilkes, Widener and West Conn in September, they'll either be contenders or prentenders by the end of week #5.

[JT]

I was shocked that Rowan ended up higher than I had them in my ballot. 

I wasn't shocked but I was definitely disappointed. Rowan is too high based on what's coming back.

Cortland returns only four defensive starters from last year (two cornerbacks, strong safety and one defensive lineman). Offensively, they lose their top running back, top two receivers and four starting offensive linemen from last year. I don't think Cortland was playing games with us.

So they are in a similiar situation to Rowan.... great nucleus, good players that didn't see the field last year, lots of questions.

[footballfan413]

K-Mack,

Point taken about St Johns.  I will fight for my opinion about #2 however.  I think my point was sort of reinforced with UWW for the same reason that your point is valid (and everyone else's) about MUC being #1.  UWW has two losses in the last two years to MUC so maybe they deserve the #2 spot as the only team to beat them was MUC.  Till some one else beats them don't they deserve the #2 for the same reason MUC deserves the #1 spot?

+Karma for this post.  With this attitude, we'll be able to get you out of negative numbers in about..............oh,say.........5 days or so!    

[footballfan413]

Seriously, based on what the Hawks are losing, I didn't expect the #2 spot.  K-Mack had made a good case, I thought.   But glad to see it anyway.

[TC]

There are tons of doubts about Whitewater and St. John's, and I personally don't endorse either of those teams as 2 or 3. I could see either one ending up there, but given the amount of turnover both are experiencing, I don't think their performance in last year's playoffs necessarily adds up to what they'll do this year.

...

I just can't figure out why St. John's has 5 starters back on offense, including their star QB, and 6 on D (or something close to that), and then Bethel, who also lost a lot of key guys but returns their QB and an all-American safety (Brandon Carr) would be ranked 21 spots behind.

Bethel beat St. John's 28-13 last year. If the logic is that the past is the past, that's acceptable, but that takes "St. John's went farther in the playoffs" off the table too.

Someone please call me on it if they think I'm being a homer, but what did St. John's really lose?

I'll preface my rant by saying that it's based off of memory and the institution-provided roster (neither of which is infallible) and some of my personal biases obviously show through.  That said, losing starters certainly doesn't always equal losing difference-makers.  Sure, SJU is going to graduate a couple of legitimate stars every year--it would be impossible for them not to.  But having a bunch of spots open isn't a problem when you have a surplus of capable players to fill those holes.

First, the "stars" that are leaving...  Jamie Steffensmeier is an absolute stud.  He stepped in as a first-year in '03 and led the National Championship team in tackles and hasn't let up since.  At the same time, he missed the '05 season and that 11-1 team didn't give up more than 16 points in any of the 10 games between when he got knocked out and when they ran into UW-Whitewater.  Sad to see him go, but life will go on.

Kevin McNamara had a lot of sacks.  Like, A LOT.  You know, kinda like Damien Dumonceaux and Jason Good and Jeremy Hood and... well, a lot of people have had a lot of sacks.  Nick Gunderson will have a lot this year, too, I bet.  And when he's gone, I'm sure someone else will get a bunch.

It sucks to lose the player who had the most receptions and the most rushing yards from the year before, but I never thought of Mike Lofboom as anything more than a solid player who fit well with the system he was in.

Kyle Gearman was a standard-issue #1 receiver, but I don't think he ever made THE LEAP that everyone was hoping for (expecting?).  I think Casey Haugen was listed as the other starter at WR last year and somehow I feel pretty confident SJU can replace his production.

The other starters (well, players who say significant time) lost, and I'll admit they're numerous, were pretty much role players--Phil Geisen, Chris Tift, Steve Levoir, Brandon Royce-Diop, etc.--were players who spent a couple of years learning the system, proved that they were worthy of getting on the field on Saturdays, and stepped in a performed.  Among the 150+ players on the team, I'd assume there are other similarly talented guys ready to seemlessly step in.

While Bethel has shown the ability to hang with St. John's over the last handful of years, they certainly haven't reached the point where they "reload" each year--losing players of Carr's or Porta's calibre just has a larger negative impact on that type of program than on SJU.

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In a kinda unrelated question, is the purpose of polls like this to project which teams are going to finish with the best record/go the furthest in the playoffs or rank which teams are better than which?  I feel like every year there are teams that are better than a lot of ranked squads but lose 3 or 4 games to teams that are legitimately better than they are and, because of a middling record, don't get the respect they deserve. 

Maybe it's because those are the teams I pay the most attention to, but I end every season feeling that 15 of the top 20 teams in the country are OAC/West Region Teams.  Of course the polls don't reflect this--how do justify putting a 7-3 WIAC team that didn't make the playoffs over a team that played in East Regional Final, for example--but I think that kind of poll would be more instructive.

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I agree with the sentiment that SJU '07 doesn't FEEL like the third best team in the country.  It feels like a solid team without the standout talent to seriously challenge MUC for a championship, likely running into a better team in the West Region Final.  Then again, that kinda sounds like the 3rd best team in the country the last few years...

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Sorry for the rambling, Johnnie-centric post.  Thanks for all the hard work that pollsters do in putting this together--and thank god we get to figure it on the field.  Is it Sep. 1 yet?

[HScoach]

Capital -- does that program have a track record, or does Rocky Pentello have a track record?

That's exactly the question on Capital.  Have they turned the corner from simply competitive to elite as a program, or where they just a good team lead by a stud QB that's now graduated?  I think the latter.  Which is why I had them slotted in the 4th place in the OAC behind MUC, Baldwin-Wallace and Ohio Northern. 

If they finish this season at 8-2 or better, than the program has made the jump.  Otherwise one has to think they were the benefit of Pentello.  Similar to the John Carroll teams lead by Tom Arth.  Good teams before and after the great QB's, but only a serious threat to Mount and the rest of D3 with the stud under center.