Top 25 rankings

Started by Pat Coleman, August 18, 2005, 01:59:31 AM

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smedindy

SOME coaches take SOS into consideration. I was surprised to see Wabash receiving votes, since we were 6-4 last yaer and have played one poor team and one okay team thus far.
Wabash Always Fights!

Ron Boerger

#46
Quote from: cawcdad on September 20, 2005, 07:45:48 PM
They must give something, strength of schedule wise. Otherewise why is UW - Stevens Point (0-2 vs. Hardin-Simmons and Linfield) ahead of Whitworth (2-0 vs. Redlands and La Verne) by eight places in the others recieving votes?

Because some of those voting in the poll do so by reputation rather than by actually following the teams they are voting on?  SP wasn't even close in the two games they lost, unlike someone like, say, Texas Lutheran who doesn't have the rep and thus only got a single vote.    You can say #13 Trinity and #2 UMHB aren't #1 Linfield and #4 HSU, but at least TLU had the UMHB game tied going to the fourth quarter (at their place before nearly 7,000 UMHB fans) and only lost by a TD.   Unlike, say, Point, who got blown out of the water at home by HSU. 

NB -I use the D3football.com rankings rather than the jokey AFCA equivalents.

Matt Barnhart (kid)

Let me preface by saying I "go by" the D3football.com poll as well.  But let me suggest that the AFCA and D3football.com poll are not all that different.  They just take different approaches.

There are seven schools with rankings in either or both polls separated by more than six spots;

Alma (8 spot difference), Hobart (8 ), Wheaton (11), CNU (11), Cortland St. (15), UW-Eau Claire (16) and Capital (17).

You might think "well, that's a pretty significant difference."  Consider the following...

In 2004, Capital plunged from being preseason #12 in the D3football.com poll to "#41" once the season's final poll came out.  And this year, D3football.com has them ranked 17 spots higher (as noted above) than does the AFCA poll (D3: #22, AFCA: "#39").

In 2004, UW-Eau Claire went from receiving absolutely no votes in the D3football.com preseason poll to finishing the season ranked "#29" ... and after week 8, they found themselves ranked #6 ... then fell after losing two straight.  And this year, D3football.com has them ranked 16 spots higher than does the AFCA (D3: #19, AFCA: "#35").  So maybe the AFCA is waiting for Eau Claire to prove themselves rather than not give them any respect (remember, 0 votes from the D3football.com voters during 2004 preseason, all the way up to #6 in the country by week 8, only to plunge to "#29" by season's end).

In 2004, Wheaton was preseason #14 by D3football.com, and finished the season #12.  They were as high as #4 during week 8.  This year, the AFCA has them #9 in their first poll ... with D3football.com 11 spots lower at #20.  Last year Wheaton was a consistant top 15 team.

In 2004, Alma - like UW-Eau Claire - received no votes in the preseason D3football.com poll ... but by season's end, was "#28".  The AFCA has them #20 this year, with D3football.com eight spots lower at "#28".

Hobart is yet another school that last year received no votes in the preseason poll, and yet ended up ranked #21 in the final one.  The AFCA has them #23 this year, with D3football.com eight sports lower at "#31".

And finally, Cortland State (#25 in the AFCA poll this year, and "#40" in the D3football.com poll) has started 3-0 (with all three games on the road).  They've given up only 10 ppg in the process, including holding Brockport St. to 10 and beating them by 10.  The same Brockport team that lost to #10 Salisbury by only five points earlier this year.

So anywho, there is some analysis on the two polls.
Former Publisher of BridgewaterFootball.com

Pat Coleman

Interesting points. I would also say, however, that the AFCA also pushed UW-EC into its Top 10 last year, peaking at No. 9, so if they are waiting on UW-EC, it's something new for them.

Your list makes it sound like we were the only ones to rank UWEC highly and I'm just pointing out that is not the case.

You can find old AFCA polls in our Notables section. It came out on Tuesdays last year as well, so that should help you navigate the calendar and give a more complete picture.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

JT

I also think that since the d3 votes are spread across the regions, norming of the d3 poll exists.  There may be some favorites that get the benefit of the doubt, but the deserving teams get noticed and start to move up.

K-Mack

Quote from: eh ... just call me 'kid' on September 21, 2005, 07:47:09 PM
Let me preface by saying I "go by" the D3football.com poll as well.  But let me suggest that the AFCA and D3football.com poll are not all that different.  They just take different approaches.

I'm not sure you were very clear on what you think the different approaches to be. You think one poll waits for teams to prove themselves and the other tries to get ahead of the next big teams?

I think the main difference is that D3 seems to take conference strength and opponent strength more into consideration, AFCA seems to go more off reputation and wins and losses. That doesn't necessarily make one better than the other, and I don't always agree with where teams shake out in the poll I vote in (just 1/25th of it).

Not that UWSP received any votes in either poll this week, but if they had played a few more games, we might find that getting smoked by No. 1 and No. 4 doesn't preclude you from being ranked 20th or something.

But honestly, the major difference between the two polls could be as simple as having two different groups of people voting. Different voters have different information, opinions and criteria, so any two groups of 25 or 40 people are unlikely to have the same result, wouldn't you think?

I wonder if things would change/even out if someone tallied an unofficial super-poll (combining the points from both each week, using the 25-1 scale) ...

Anyway...
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

#51
Quote from: Trin8-0 on September 20, 2005, 09:56:45 AM
Just out of curiosity I was wondering how those responsible for the top 25 poll base their votes on teams from the NESCAC. Trinity (CT) for example, for the past 2 or 3 seasons, has started the season in the "others recieving votes" section of the poll. After they win all of their games they eventually sneak into the top 25 usually finishing in the low 20s.

I realize it's not a very important issue because Trinity (CT) nor any other NESCAC school is eligibel for the playoffs because of their self-imposed ban.  But I was just curious if the voters have ever even seen a Trinity (CT) or NESCAC game, or if their inclusion into the national poll is just D3football.com's way of throwing a bone to the team with the nations longest current win streak (22).

Thanks.

It is absolutely hard to judge unless you go to a game (which I would love to do next week vs. Williams, if I wasn't signed on to do a doubleheader in the midwest ... you will see this article at some point this season though).

I have often considered Trinity and occasionally voted for them, but given what we know about football in the east, period, compared to the other pockets of strength in the country, even if one were to assume that the NESCAC is strong (which you could assume by judging how the conference does in other sports), it doesn't mean the conference leader would always be an automatic vote.

You can't really go on statistics, since the NESCAC is in Week 1 when others are in Week 4, and you can't go on inter-conference games, history, strength of schedule or anything like that ... basically all you have is what you see and who you talk to who has seen them.

I think just the playoffs (which would be for one team and one only) and not an extension of the schedule or out-of-conference play would do a lot for the NESCAC's national profile, but clearly that is not a concern except amongst us who watch and compare d3 football teams.

So to answer the question, yes NESCAC teams are eligible, but I don't know that many voters who work on Saturdays (with other teams) and don't have the opportunity to see teams like I do have any way of being able to consider a NESCAC team fairly, and therefore don't.

That's why you probably see them in also receiving votes and not much higher.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

Mugsy

Just an observation...

The AFCA poll has Millikin and North Central receiving votes, Millikin with 74 votes and North Central with only 25 votes.  Millikin is ranked 27th, while North Central is ranked 37th.

Yet North Central received more first place votes by CCIW coaches in their pre-season poll, more than Wheaton who is the 3 time repeat CCIW champion.  Millikin was picked to finish 5th in the conference.

The D3Football poll has 5 CCIW teams listed in the top 40, including North Central and Millikin.  Difference is, North Central is ranked at  37th and Millikin at 38th.

Time will tell, but I suspect North Central will ultimately end the season ranked higher than Millikin.
Wheaton Football: CCIW Champs: 1950, 1953-1959, 1995, 2000, 2002-2004, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2019

Matt Barnhart (kid)

#53
Below is the Division III version of the Bowl Championship Series (through September 24 games).  I just put it together for fun ... to see how the two human polls, along with the computer ratings, would rank a top 25 when combined.  I'll do this again after week 8 and after week 11 (before the playoffs begin).

Highlighted red: Coaches' Poll (AFCA)
Highlighted green: Media Poll (D3football.com)
Highlighted blue: Computer Ratings (Born Power, CSL, Elrod, Laz, Sorensen, and Waits)
Highlighted brown: DIII BCS ranking and average

Click here for an explaination of how to calculate the BCS.




























Rank
School
Rank
[/u][/b]
Points
[/u][/b]
%
[/u][/b]
Rank
[/u][/b]
Points
[/u][/b]
%
[/u][/b]
Born
[/u][/b]
CSL
[/b][/u]
Elrod
[/u][/b]
Laz
[/u][/b]
Sor.
[/u][/b]
Waits
[/u][/b]
%
[/u][/b]
Rank
[/u][/b]
Average
[/u][/b]
1
Linfield
1
991
0.991
1
625
1.000
24
25
25
25
19
25
0.990
1
.9937
2
MUC
2
951
0.951
3
580
0.928
25
22
24
24
25
15
0.950
2
.9430
3
UMHB
3
916
0.916
2
581
0.930
20
24
16
18
21
21
0.800
4
.8820
4
Rowan
4
854
0.854
5
482
0.771
19
23
17
15
6
6
0.570
5
.7317
5
H-SU
5
828
0.828
4
534
0.854
4
0
10
20
5
22
0.390
11
.6907
6
UW-White
11
591
0.591
10
347
0.555
23
14
23
23
23
24
0.920
3
.6887
7
W&J
7
729
0.729
6
478
0.765
21
19
21
16
0
0
0.560
6
.6847
8
SJU
6
792
0.792
9
434
0.694
12
6
18
22
16
7
0.530
7
.6720
9
Ithaca
9
660
0.660
13
320
0.512
9
18
19
4
0
12
0.430
10
.5340
10
Oxy
10
612
0.612
8
456
0.730
2
13
0
8
0
18
0.230
16
.5240
11
UW-LaC
16
357
0.357
14
296
0.474
14
0
14
21
20
5
0.530
7
.4537
12
Trinity,TX
12
537
0.537
12
328
0.525
0
0
0
0
15
17
0.150
23
.4040
13
Wheaton
8
663
0.663
18
142
0.227
13
0
20
7
0
0
0.200
18
.3633
14
Del Val
13
474
0.474
11
344
0.550
1
21
0
0
0
0
0.010
NR
.3447
15
ONU
NR
0
0.000
7
463
0.741
18
0
1
12
9
0
0.220
17
.3203
16
Carthage
14
472
0.472
16
234
0.374
0
20
9
0
2
0
0.110
NR
.3187
17
CMU
15
380
0.380
15
259
0.414
0
0
6
10
18
0
0.160
22
.3180
18
SJF
20
172
0.172
17
176
0.282
17
0
22
3
0
0
0.200
18
.2180
19
Wesley
32
42
0.042
29
27
0.043
6
12
15
19
8
12
0.470
9
.1850
20
UW-Stout
21
129
0.129
NR
0
0.069
16
0
11
17
0
3
0.300
14
.1660
21
Whitworth
38
24
0.024
25
70
0.112
0
0
0
11
24
20
0.310
13
.1487
22
UW-Eau
42
16
0.016
19
142
0.227
11
0
8
13
0
0
0.190
20
.1443
23
Hobart
19
212
0.212
30
25
0.040
7
15
7
1
0
0
0.150
23
.1340
24
H-SC
18
261
0.261
22
80
0.128
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.000
NR
.1297
25
Coe
23
117
0.117
36
17
0.027
0
8
0
0
22
16
0.240
15
.1280
Former Publisher of BridgewaterFootball.com

HScoach

Quote from: eh ... just call me 'kid' on September 28, 2005, 03:29:50 PM
Below is the Division III version of the Bowl Championship Series (through September 24 games).  I just put it together for fun ...



Dude, you have WAY too much time on your hands........ ;D
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Matt Barnhart (kid)

Quote from: hscoach on September 28, 2005, 03:41:15 PM
Dude, you have WAY too much time on your hands........ ;D

I did it over a couple days (roughly three hours) ... what took the most time was manually putting it into a table, phew.  That was an hours worth right there.  :o
Former Publisher of BridgewaterFootball.com

splik

so is Linfield now playing Mount Union in the Toilet bowl?  :P

Gray Fox

Kid,

The Dunkel Index has D3 again.  I don't know when they added it back.
Fierce When Roused

Matt Barnhart (kid)

Yeah, and there were four other indexes that I saw that had Division III schools in them.  I went with the six below because they seemed the most reflective of the two human polls.
Former Publisher of BridgewaterFootball.com

smedindy

Personally, once the season sorts out a bit, I like Massey the best for D-3.
Wabash Always Fights!