Top 25 rankings

[smedindy]

And I noticed that Massey puts them in order of how the BCS would use the rankings (without margion of victory) but the real Massey rating is on the right.

He just wants to make it difficult to do my power ranking compendium, doesn't he??

[Mr. Ypsi]

I admit that I know very little (all right, nothing  ) about some of the teams in the top 25, but the one surprise I noted was the precipitous fall of Wheaton.  From #18 to #32 seems a bit severe for losing a nail-biter AT undefeated (and now #20) NCC.  Was it an allergy to turn-overs that soured voters so much on the Crusaders?  I anticipated #23-25, not 32.

Of course, to admit my obvious bias, I also expected Augustana to be somewhere in the top 25.  If  Augie beats #13 Carthage (my expectation - in Kenosha), I hope that Carthage will not plummet totally out of the poll, while Augie enters!

I don't expect any top 25 support for MY team (sympathy, perhaps, for the Schmied tragedy, but at 1-4, no votes!), but I feel the CCIW has 4 top-25 worthy teams: Augustana, Carthage, North Central, and Wheaton - plus Millikin still on the 'watch list'.

[Pat Coleman]

What's the record of the three teams Wheaton has beaten?

(Your answer need not rhyme.)

[Mr. Ypsi]

But does it need to be in Haiku format? 

Good point (and although I'm too lazy to check, I'm sure it is not good), but common sense (and general consensus) says they ARE good.

I think you've tricked me into being forever banished from the Titan alums - in recent weeks I've defended both Millikin and Wheaton!  (Of course, if that will stop the fund-raising calls, it will have been worth it!)  

[smedindy]

Hey, my school has just 8 votes, and they've given up only 22 points a 2 offensive touchdowns all season in going 4-0. Mind you, their SOS is not the best in the world, AND after last seasons fall they need to prove themselves. So I'm not complaining.

[K-Mack]

I admit that I know very little (all right, nothing  ) about some of the teams in the top 25, but the one surprise I noted was the precipitous fall of Wheaton.  From #18 to #32 seems a bit severe for losing a nail-biter AT undefeated (and now #20) NCC.  Was it an allergy to turn-overs that soured voters so much on the Crusaders?  I anticipated #23-25, not 32.

Of course, to admit my obvious bias, I also expected Augustana to be somewhere in the top 25.  If  Augie beats #13 Carthage (my expectation - in Kenosha), I hope that Carthage will not plummet totally out of the poll, while Augie enters!

I don't expect any top 25 support for MY team (sympathy, perhaps, for the Schmied tragedy, but at 1-4, no votes!), but I feel the CCIW has 4 top-25 worthy teams: Augustana, Carthage, North Central, and Wheaton - plus Millikin still on the 'watch list'.

That's exactly the problem. You've got four teams from the CCIW to slot ... remember we have a top 25, and 25+ conferences. So if a voter was to say "I think the No. 1 CCIW team goes here, and No. 2 here" and they change, that can cause a precipitous drop that would never happen in D1, because the pool of teams people actually would allow in the top 25 is about 70, not 200.

Also, with four teams, if one voter likes North Central and Wheaton, and another likes Augie and Carthage, and another likes North Central and Carthage, that splits your conference's votes, and leaves everyone ranked lower than the champion of the league will be at the end of the year, if it's a situation where one team pulls away. Right now we can't tell.

But yeah, Wheaton with a chance to tie with a 2-point conversion in the final minutes, is about equal to North Central. Some felt they were overrated to begin with, but regardless, they should not find themselves so far from the Cardinals. But that's the nature of our poll, I guess.

[K-Mack]

Hey, my school has just 8 votes, and they've given up only 22 points a 2 offensive touchdowns all season in going 4-0. Mind you, their SOS is not the best in the world, AND after last seasons fall they need to prove themselves. So I'm not complaining.

I've been explaining this elsewhere to fans of Hobart, Ferrum and other unbeaten teams who aren't finding themselves quite as high as they'd like. I'll gladly write more about it later when I have more time, or talk about it in ATN.

[wally_wabash]

Keith-

One of my favorite parts of ATN is the section, albeit brief, dedicated to your top 25 and the teams on your watch list.  It's very cool to get some insight from a voter.  Have you ever thought about disclosing your ballot or is that top secret?  Mind you I'm not asking or hoping for you to do so, just curious if that's something that you and perhaps some of the other voters have considered. 

[Ralph Turner]

Re: Presidents' Athletic Conference
« Reply #128 on: Today at 12:12:00 AM » 

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In the three years of D3football.com having a Top 25, a top 10 team has lost to an unranked Division III team (during the regular season) 14 times:

Year Week Losing Top 10 School Winning Unranked School Unranked School's Rise in Votes (Rank)
2003 3 #8 Trinity, TX Pomona-Pitzer 0 (-) to 30 (26)
2003 4 #8 Bridgewater, Va. CNU 0 (-) to 61 (25)
2003 5 #5 Rowan New Jersey 2 (40) to 104 (22)
2003 7 #9 Brockport St. Ithaca 21 (33) to 134 (22)
2003 10 #4 Mary Hardin-Baylor East Texas Baptist 10 (36) to 107 (23)
2004 1 #7 Bridgewater, Va. McDaniel 0 (-) to 32 (32)
2004 3 #5 Wartburg Buena Vista 0 (-) to 0 (-)
2004 5 #8 Montclair St. Cortland St. 0 (-) to 0 (-)
2004 9 #5 Capital Ohio Northern 20 (34) to 145 (21)
2004 9 #4 Wheaton Carthage 2 (45) to 109 (23)
2004 10 #10 UW-Eau Claire UW-Stout 0 (-) to 10 (39)
2005 4 #10 Salisbury Montclair St. 0 (-) to 0 (-)
2005 5 #7 Ohio Northern John Carroll 0 (-) to 7 (43)
2005 5 #6 Wash. & Jeff. Thiel 4 (42) to 104 (22)

So to those out there complaining that Thiel isn't getting respect for their win over W&J this past weekend, keep in mind that the Tomcats made the fifth most dramatic jump in votes over the past three years.

But some "good" news for both Thiel and W&J ... of the 11 top 10 teams that lost in either 2003 or 2004, six still made the playoffs.  Of the 11 schools that upset those top 10 teams, four made it to the postseason ... with three of the four being the #2, #3, and #6 most dramatic jumps in votes - E.T.B. (2003), Ithaca (2003) and Carthage (2004).

Great research posted by "kid" from the Presidents AC board.  I applaud you, kid!

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Ralph ... I copy and pasted (from the modify option) the table I made ... it's a bit more readable

((( and for those of you wondering why I did this, a couple Thiel fans were complaining on the PAC board about Thiel not getting any respect in the poll )))

In the three years of D3football.com having a Top 25, a top 10 team has lost to an unranked Division III team (during the regular season) 14 times:

Year	Week	Losing Top 10 School	Winning Unranked School	Unranked School's Rise in Votes (Rank)
2003	3	#8 Trinity, TX	Pomona-Pitzer	0 (-) to 30 (26)
2003	4	#8 Bridgewater, Va.	CNU	0 (-) to 61 (25)
2003	5	#5 Rowan	New Jersey	2 (40) to 104 (22)
2003	7	#9 Brockport St.	Ithaca	21 (33) to 134 (22)
2003	10	#4 Mary Hardin-Baylor	East Texas Baptist	10 (36) to 107 (23)
2004	1	#7 Bridgewater, Va.	McDaniel	0 (-) to 32 (32)
2004	3	#5 Wartburg	Buena Vista	0 (-) to 0 (-)
2004	5	#8 Montclair St.	Cortland St.	0 (-) to 0 (-)
2004	9	#5 Capital	Ohio Northern	20 (34) to 145 (21)
2004	9	#4 Wheaton	Carthage	2 (45) to 109 (23)
2004	10	#10 UW-Eau Claire	UW-Stout	0 (-) to 10 (39)
2005	4	#10 Salisbury	Montclair St.	0 (-) to 0 (-)
2005	5	#7 Ohio Northern	John Carroll	0 (-) to 7 (43)
2005	5	#6 Wash. & Jeff.	Thiel	4 (42) to 104 (22)

So to those out there complaining that Thiel isn't getting respect for their win over W&J this past weekend, keep in mind that the Tomcats made the fifth most dramatic jump in votes over the past three years.

But some "good" news for both Thiel and W&J ... of the 11 top 10 teams that lost in either 2003 or 2004, six still made the playoffs.  Of the 11 schools that upset those top 10 teams, four made it to the postseason ... with three of the four being the #2, #3, and #6 most dramatic jumps in votes - E.T.B. (2003), Ithaca (2003) and Carthage (2004).

[smedindy]

As you know, I started toying with a power-rating compendium that I also added a couple of components too. As the season rolls on, it seems to be very accurate.

Well, I just ran my power ranking compendium and all I have to say it's too early to do that, because some teams have just 3 games and some teams have 5 games and there's just a lot of static and noise in my system right now. Perhaps in a couple of weeks it will wort out.

Here is the top 25, though, for grins and giggles.

1. Mt. Union
2. Wisc - Whitewater
3. Wesley (see! 5-0 with a great SOS moves them up here)
4. St. John's
5. Ithaca
6. Linfield (only 3-0, will move up I'm sure)
7. Coe
8. Mary Hardin-Baylor (see Linfield)
9. St. Olaf
10. Concordia - Moorhead
11. Monmouth (another 5-0)
12. Central
13. Hardin-Simmons
14. Carthage
15. Rowan
16. North Central
17. John Carroll
18. Thiel
19. Wisc - Stout
20. Trinity (TX) (two of the power ratings I use have them downgraded)
21. Salisbury
22. Wabash (no, I'm not being a homer)
23. Wisc - LaCrosse
24. Otterbein
25. Hobart

As for the others in the D-3 top 25:

28. Occidental (SOS issues)
29. St. John Fisher
32. McDaniel
34. Bridgewater
35. Ohio Northern
36. Delaware Valley (big time SOS issues)
42. Washington & Jefferson (SOS)
43. Wooster

And for fun, the bottom 10:

219. Principia
218. Mass - Maritime
217. Mass - Dartmouth
216. Concordia (IL)
215. Nichols
214. Juniata
213. Greensboro
212. Macalester
211. Blackburn
210. Tri - State

[K-Mack]

Keith-

One of my favorite parts of ATN is the section, albeit brief, dedicated to your top 25 and the teams on your watch list.  It's very cool to get some insight from a voter.  Have you ever thought about disclosing your ballot or is that top secret?  Mind you I'm not asking or hoping for you to do so, just curious if that's something that you and perhaps some of the other voters have considered. 

Wally,
I'm glad you like that. I don't have a problem revealing my ballot. Initially I was going to ask Pat if he cared, but then I thought that might be crossing some sort of line, and keeping it close to the vest wasn't going to change what's really interesting ... the "is my team in there around 23-25, or not being considered at all?' factor.

I guess also, it's good not to have my rankings trump the poll itself. I'll take 25 minds over just mine anytime ... sometimes they're right and I end up being way off, and sometimes my gut feeling/research pans out.

As you may have noticed though, I don't have a problem discussing where I put a team or where I think one should go, or what my style of voting is. In the past, I have noticed things one week that I didn't notice the week before, and so we as voters aren't infallible either ... To answer the question clearly though, yes I have thought about revealing the whole thing, but I have not, and I'm not totally certain why.

[K-Mack]

Not only that, but he runs the fantasy league by hand. Must've been a math major.

Two things, the Massey Ratings aren't in your formula, and the D3football.com is not really a media poll. While it is run by a media organization, there are an equal number of coaches, media and SIDs on the panel, by design.

Dude, you have WAY too much time on your hands........

I did it over a couple days (roughly three hours) ... what took the most time was manually putting it into a table, phew.  That was an hours worth right there. 

[K-Mack]

I feel the CCIW has 4 top-25 worthy teams: Augustana, Carthage, North Central, and Wheaton - plus Millikin still on the 'watch list'.

I'll agree with you and disagree with Pat on this ... Wheaton's opponent record is less relevant than the fact that they were a made two point conversion from tying the (now) No. 20 team in the nation. They and North Central certainly shouldn't be far from each other in the polls, but neither should Bridgewater and HSC (31-24) or Thiel and W&J (OT), etc.

What ends up happening when 4-5 teams from one conference are top 25 worthy is people have to slot the one they feel best about first, then let the others fall in. In other words, even if the results have me thinking NC, Wheaton, Augie and Carthage are even, there just aren't enough spots for me to rank them all in a row, plus acknowledge relevant teams from the other 25+ conferences.

So if more people prefer North Central to Wheaton, mathematically they drop ... Since the coaches had them super high to begin with, they don't drop as far, but people there surely bumped NC ahead ... for the moment.

They might also beat up on each other so no one team gets that high in the rankings, even if it might be likely that the last conference team standing will go deeper in the playoffs than an unbeaten team from a weaker conference ranked ahead of it ...

If that makes any sense ... all things serious voters try to take into account.

[K-Mack]

Oh, I just realize I responded to the same post earlier in the week. Hope my answers match up!

As far as power ratings ... well, that's why we need subjective polls. I like Wesley and all, but Linfield vs. Wesley = probably not a close game 9 times out of 10.

Also, Kid's table (Mr. Devil's Advocate, it seems) proves a very interesting point ... unranked to the top 10 in D3 is not quite as far as it is in D-1. Once those power conferences establish themselves in D1, their top 3-5 teams pretty much stay ranked. When was the last time less than 3-4 SEC, Big 10 or Big 12 teams were ranked?

In D3, being second in a conference can mean out of the top 25, and one victory over the big dog with the history of being ranked high and winning in the playoffs can boost you into the poll, and make voters question how good that top 10 team really was.

FWIW...