Top 25 rankings

[K-Mack]

smed,
I definitely think there is worthiness to numbers-crunching, there are just times when logic or subjective thinking has to overrule it. Like I'm sure there's a three-loss team each year in the OAC or somewhere that would smoke an unbeaten team from another conference.

And vice versa, a really crappy team that happens to play in the OAC isn't the 20th-best team in the country, just off SOS ... Or UW-Stevens Point, they've played a tough schedule, but they haven't beaten anyone ... so it's hard to judge what they really are, mathematically or subjectively.

But generally, yeah, the rankings are nice.

[smedindy]

K-Mack -

Rest assured, Heidelberg is in their proper place!

[Dr. Sparky]

It also shows why computer rankings alone, and "compilation" rankings (*cough-BCS-cough*) too, aren't good ways to pick who the top teams (especially national champs) are. The subjectivity someone mentioned above while an opportunity to favor some unreasonably also allows factors that mere numbers miss.

Fun to BS about, though 

[redswarm81]

This is a collateral issue, but not entirely irrelevant.  Here's a rant I posted on the Liberty League Board (a board that has become something of a cult phenomenon):

The BCS was created in large part to overcome dissatisfaction over national polls--which often disagreed--being used to determine the mythical "national champion" in D1 college football.  The BCS ranking system has been revamped several times, and before last year it included super-secret hidden equations to derive the rankings (maybe ktroutvon could help us uncover those hidden equations).

The 2003-04 BCS formula used (1) AP and ESPN-USA Today Poll Average; (2) Computer Average (Anderson-Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe); (3) Schedule rank; (4) Losses; and (5) Quality Win Component.   Using this formula, the human-ranked no. 1 team, USC, was not permitted to play in the BCS "Championship" bowl game.

To prevent such a debacle from reoccurring, the BCS revamped the BCS formula and even went so far as to publish all of the equations used in the BCS ranking system.  Schedule rank, losses, and Quality Win Component were dropped from the system, and the BCS rankings are now determined by averaging the AP poll, the Coaches poll, and a composite of 6 computer polls.

Thus the BCS, which was created to end D1 football's reliance on polls to determine the mythical "national champion," now relies 2/3 on human polls, and 1/3 on number-crunched "computer polls" to determine the mythical "national champion."

And this doesn't even address the outrage of New Year's Day bowl games being played on January 5, or the crime of playing the Rose Bowl game at night.

[K-Mack]

Again,
this isn't a D-I board, but there are so many things wrong with the BCS ... and so many better ideas out there. Even a playoff with home games on campus would generate so much interest and funds that it's ridiculous.

I wish a billionaire like Paul Allen would just step up and provide the payouts if college chose his playoff over the BCS bowls ... We'll see how fast the Rose Bowl wants to be down, etc.

The most egregious BCS mess-ups are usually when there's a clear No. 1 and several teams jockeying for No. 2, like that year Nebraska got smoked by Colorado and then again by Miami at the Rose Bowl. The Okla-LSU year was child's play.

Seriously, how many times do they actually get it right? Only when there's a consensus 1-2 ...

makes us glad that other divisions have playoffs. we get to see the great games, and never have a fake, undeserving champion.

[smedindy]

See, the BCS was INSANE to drop the margin of victory and SOS measures. INSANE. That's what separated the teams. Cap the max margin of victory at 21 points, use the SOS factor, and get the teams.

And I don't CARE AT ALL if the human ranked #1 team is left out. Because the eyes decieve sometimes. I think there are a lot more biases in the human polls than in the computers. It's just that sportswriters are afraid of them at times because sometimes they fly in the face of conventional wisdom. (no offense to you K-Mack)

It was the same problem Bill James and his sabrematricians had in the 80's. But now, most everyone is on board with OBP and OPS being the best measure for a batter, and that defense CAN be measured accurately, etc. etc.

Anywho, my stuff is all for fun.

[coocooforcoekohawk]

If Occidental wins, could we be looking at four of the top five teams being from the West?



And given Rowan's perfomance in the semifinals last year aren't we really looking at the top four teams being from the West.

[ktroutvon]

As a preemptive strike against any D3 voters who might see this:

While I expect that Hobart will be more closely scrutinized this week, every team gets a close one.  Del Valley has made a living on it the last two years.  Not to mention Thiel the previous week (and for anyone considering JHU, they win by a few every game).  While the conditions are a part of the game, it was a complete mud bowl, which can add to the anomoly factor.  Especially when SLU's rushing attack isn't even that strong in the LL and Hobart's D has done better against better rushing teams nearly every week (incl. RPI). 

[ACMob]

It will be very interesting to see how far Mount falls in the polls!!  IMHO, they are still a top 5 squad.  Would you want your team playing them next week??

[smedindy]

I would think Mt. Union would still be in the top 5. Hardin - Simmons will take a big tumble.

Wabash, I think, is the only school to break into the top 25.

[religion_major]

K-Mack or Pat,
This may be a stupid question but when is d3.com doing its first playoff projection?

[OldPhart]

I figure Wesley will drop out, but what about UW-LaCrosse? How far will they drop? I know that the WIAC gets a lot of respect, despite a rather modest post-season track record.  I know that the last two losses have been close.  Still, a 3-3 team in the top 25 seems a bit dodgy.

[coocooforcoekohawk]

oldphart,

one of UW-Lacrosse's losses was to DII South Dakota State

[Pat Coleman]

Division I-AA scholarship South Dakota State.

[Phife]

Mt. Union losing was a shock and I imagine they fall somewhere like 4-6.

HSU will likely drop out of the top 10 IMHO.