Top 25 rankings

[repete]

It would seem to me that if the inter-region schedule can not be increased due to expense then a rotating bracketing would be a better way since conference/region strengths vary year to year.

However, thanks for the information.

Well to a degree ... but it's worth noting that there are some regions that have not produced a Stagg champ for a long, long time.

[Foss]

I agree, repete - I think that's an important point.

[retagent]

I'm anxiously awaiting the matchup between UWW and UMHB in three weeks, and plan to be their, but do not know who I will cheer for yet. The two intervening weeks might clarify things some, but that should really give the fans/voters something concrete upon which to base their opinions of the power in the west. Are their any other clarifying games coming up in the other regions?

[sjfcclimbing]

It would seem to me that if the inter-region schedule can not be increased due to expense then a rotating bracketing would be a better way since conference/region strengths vary year to year.

However, thanks for the information.

Well to a degree ... but it's worth noting that there are some regions that have not produced a Stagg champ for a long, long time.

I agree but does that mean we should penalize this year's seniors? Does one win in ten years set the standard for this penalty. Does Whitewater dominate Wesley on Wesley's home field? It is easy to say yes but not convincingly. No one knows for sure. It seems like it would be better to rotate the home field advantage to help mix things up.

[repete]

It would seem to me that if the inter-region schedule can not be increased due to expense then a rotating bracketing would be a better way since conference/region strengths vary year to year.

However, thanks for the information.

Well to a degree ... but it's worth noting that there are some regions that have not produced a Stagg champ for a long, long time.

I agree but does that mean we should penalize this year's seniors? Does one win in ten years set the standard for this penalty. Does Whitewater dominate Wesley on Wesley's home field? It is easy to say yes but not convincingly. No one knows for sure. It seems like it would be better to rotate the home field advantage to help mix things up.

One win in 10 years? I think you need to look a little further back to find when a East or South team has won the Stagg. In fact, four different West teams have won titles since the last East team.

As for Wesley, it would take some pretty impressive Wesley blinders to say that playing in Dover would have changed the outcome. I saw that game and the domination was complete. A few dropped TD passes and a very conservative 2nd half game plan by UWW kept it from being worse.  And that's not even considering the shoes alibi explanation the season before.

I'm in no way saying that historic data should be the sole or even primary factor, but random isn't the answer. You make the call with the best data you have. For example, there's a reason that an unbeaten 6-0 team like St. Norbert's isn't in the d3football.com top 25 . . . and the Knights were not excluded by random.

Or look what happened during that weak East regional a few years back. John Carroll was moved from loaded North and proved the committee right by winning the regional.

And if you're talking a "penalizing" then wouldn't a juggernaut such as Mount Union and its seniors be "penalized" if they were sent on the road despite a dominating double-digit win streak and back-to-back titles. Sure, folks would love to see it, but it wouldn't be fair.

Random is gutless IMHO. Human judgment is often flawed and information is rarely complete, but it's better than the alternative. 

[altor]

I'm in no way saying that historic data should be the sole or even primary factor, but random isn't the answer.

Historic data should not even be considered.  The four #1 seeds are basically seeded among themselves based on the prescribed selection and seeding criteria, with the top two getting to host the semi-finals (should they advance that far).

The fact that the North and West have been chosen to host these games lately is not a statement about the relative strength of the regions.  The committee has decided each year (in a separate decision making process each year) that the #1 seed in these regions are better than the #1 seed in the others.

And the fact that John Carroll won the East a few years back says absolutely nothing about the strengths of these regions in 2007.  It simply means that, in that year, John Carroll was better than the teams in the East region.

[repete]

Right, John Carroll shouldn't affect this year's choices, but the point is it took a bunch of humans and not a coin flip or other random event to determine this.

[sjfcclimbing]

Right, John Carroll shouldn't affect this year's choices, but the point is it took a bunch of humans and not a coin flip or other random event to determine this.

The problem is that human beings are biased and while some of those decisions work out some do not. Look at the seeding for the East last year. And if you are trying to say that the East was weak then how did SJFC give Mt. Union it's toughest first game (Capital had two chances, the first chance was worst then SJFC). Trying to decide who is stronger based on no relevant data is guessing no matter who you are. I have no problem with the regional seedings at least there is a basis but seeding the regions against each other with no real data is no worst then a coin flip as it tends to keep the current status of things.

As for Mt. Union, they have proven themselves to be in a class of their own and I don't think it would matter where they played. Let them get out and see the country.

[Ralph Turner]

Right, John Carroll shouldn't affect this year's choices, but the point is it took a bunch of humans and not a coin flip or other random event to determine this.

As for Mt. Union, they have proven themselves to be in a class of their own and I don't think it would matter where they played. Let them get out and see the country.

MUC has one non-conference date to fill each year.  The MUC-SJF games should be "Games of the Week" in 2008 and 2009.

It is very uncommon for schools to go outside of bus range for games.  It makes little financial sense, unless the school's Development Office is picking up a tab for an alumni meet-and-greet in southern California.

The most notable airplane games that I can recall are those between the WIAC and the west coast and ASC, the NWC and the ASC. E.g., UMHB willingness to fly to CNU and Willamette, and vice versa, HSU's willingness to schedule Linfield and WIAC's and even McMurry's willingness to get on buses for 600-mile and 800 trips to Colorado College and Huntingdon, other fellow road warriors, are good examples of traveling long distances for games.

[HScoach]

.....And if you are trying to say that the East was weak then how did SJFC give Mt. Union it's toughest first game (Capital had two chances, the first chance was worst then SJFC).

Wrong.  I won't discredit SJF by saying they weren't a worthy opponent, because they were a very well coached team that tested MUC, but Capital played MUC tougher in both games last year (as well as in '05).  You can't just look at the final score to say who was tougher.  There are always other outside factors that play into the final score that might not be obvious to the casual observer. 

Discrediting Capital's regular season game vs MUC can be misleading since it was played in 40+ mph winds and freezing rain/sleet.  Not the most conducive weather for a team built to throw the ball 50 times a game. 

Looking at simply the final scores, Baldwin Wallace played Mount to a 14-0 loss last year, but wasn't anywhere near MUC's toughest regular season opponent.  And Whitewater was much, much tougher than either SJF or Capital.  If you're going to beat MUC, you have to hold your own at the line of scrimmage.  Capital was very close, and WWW went toe-to-toe with MUC at the point of attack.  Thereby forcing Kehres to pull out all the stops offensively. 

If SJF would have forced MUC to throw the ball, then you'd have a legit arguement.  But Kmic's 371 yards rushing proves otherwise.  One thing is consistent with Kehres is big games, if he finds a weakness he'll exploit until you make him quit.  LK tries to be very balanced in the regular season to present defensive scheme and tendancy problems, but come playoff time he'll ride his horse until you prove you can stop it.  Unfortunately for SJF, they couldn't.  Sorry that it's hard to accept, but 371 yards rushing against your defense says to me (and most other people) that SJF was not Mount's toughest test.


And completely dismissing history is ludicrous at the Division 3 level where there is so little cross-regional play to accurately evaluate the strength of the different conferences. The West vs South debate this season will be helped out by the upcoming MHB vs WWW game.  If this was 2008 and the MUC/SJF opener result was known, then you could start to evaluate the 2008 strength of the East vs North based on actual and timely data.    However without a legitimate sampling of games cross-regionally each year, the only data you have is past playoff history.  Which says the West Region is the deepest and most balanced.  The North has the 800 lb Gorilla no one wants to play.  The East and South are 2nd tier regions.

Without recent regular season cross regional games to provide current data, where's the logic in throwing out the history that says the East is behind the North and West?  Want to change that perception?  Then East needs beat the North/West teams in the playoffs. 

[repete]

hscoach sums it up nicely, especially the long-discussed MUC gameplan vs. SJF. Still, that was an encouraging performance for the East. Given the competitiveness of the 2005 Stagg, LK was clearly saving something for Salem. Perhaps history had hinted that he was in for another UWW-MUC final? Given what happened in the 2005 UWW-Wesley "matchup" it wasn't a bad guess.

But yes, that SJF-MUC game was closer than the East's last two visits West. Combined score 90-10.  In fact, the West in the past 4 semis -- vs. 2 South and 2 East --  192-23.

As for Mt. Union, they have proven themselves to be in a class of their own and I don't think it would matter where they played. Let them get out and see the country.

The logic that since MUC is so good they could play anywhere is fatally flawed. Sure, they could but don't powerhouses deserve the same fairness as doormats? And don't fans deserve at least the best possible effort of  having the No. 1 and 2 teams in the final rather than a semi.

Sure, you need to win them all to win a title ... but -- call me crazy -- I want to see the two best teams in Salem. I've been to Staggs in Alabama and Salem, and my most recent trip involved two teams with which I had no connection.  I went because I knew MUC and UWW were the best two teams in the country.

And the "MUC can play anywhere" tact loses steam not only should the MUC dynasty fade but if it is applied to other programs.

coin flip as it tends to keep the current status of things.


No, it doesn't. A coin flip is a coin flip ... it's giving up. Give me human error and occasional mistakes anytime.

OK, here's an inter-regional example: MUC vs. Averett. Who did you pick you pick in that North-South matchup? And why? Just remember, you can't use history.

[altor]

However without a legitimate sampling of games cross-regionally each year, the only data you have is past playoff history.  Which says the West Region is the deepest and most balanced.  The North has the 800 lb Gorilla no one wants to play.  The East and South are 2nd tier regions.

Actually, all that data tells you is that, historically, the best team in the North and West has been better than the best team in the East and South.  It says absolutely nothing about the depth or balance of any region.

I find it ironic that you dismiss the cross-region games because of a lack of a "legitimate sample," but you are willing to make broad assumptions about the various regions based on 2 games a year.

2006 Inter-Region Records:
East vs. South    28-16
South vs. West    7-5
South vs North   26-10
West vs. North   20-14
North vs. East      1-0

Just to clarify, I believe the NCAA is correct in giving semi-final home games in recent years to MUC and UWW and other teams from the west.  Those teams have been the better of the #1 seeds each year, which is exactly how the decision should be made.

The best solution hasn't even been mentioned yet, I don't believe.  The semi-final games should be played at neutral sites.  Unfortunately, I'm afraid the cost of 2 additional teams traveling would not be approved by the bean counters.

[Ron Boerger]

Not to mention a neutral site involving teams from the south or west would be so far from anywhere that you wouldn't have anyone show up but the very hard core fans.  You could split the difference between N and E pretty easily, but given where some of the better S and W teams are, you could end up with Podunk ND as your neutral site.   

[HScoach]

I find it ironic that you dismiss the cross-region games because of a lack of a "legitimate sample," but you are willing to make broad assumptions about the various regions based on 2 games a year.

The original question was about the seeding of the regions against each other come playoff time.  Which means ranking the #1 seeds against each other. 

I highlighted the MUC/SJF and MHB/WWW inter-regional games because those games are between teams that are regarded amongst the best each region has to offer.  Heading into this season, those 4 teams were the odds on favorites to be the #1 seeds in each of their regions.  And therefore the head-to-head outcomes would give a very legitimate measure of the strength of the potential #1 seeds. 

Mount Union beating the crap out of Averett tells us nothing about the North vs the South.  Nor does Depauw's (South) win over Anderson (North).  But MUC playing SFJ says alot about North vs. East as would MHB at WWW say alot about the South vs. West.  That's why I singled out those 2 specific games.

[repete]

I could see lots of 1,800 attendance figures with that "best" option. There's nothing wrong with home fields in the semis. It makes the trip to Salem stand out more.

The best way to see balance is look at the final d3football.com polls. Look at where the top four teams from each region land.

The West, for example:
2006 -- four in top nine
2005 -- four in top eight
2004 -- four in top 13
2003-- four in top eight
Total -- 38

East:
4-14
4-22
4-21
4-13
Total 70

North
4-19
4-15
4-12
4-26
Total 72

South
4-18
4-17
4-14
4-19
Total 68