MBB: American Rivers Conference

[SpartyBlue]

Agree! Good rundown Sparty. Tried to post Saturday night and Sunday morning and finally gave up. Haven't checked back until now. The Dutch lost a very winnable game at UWP. They were up by 11 with 4 minutes left, but had shooting issues all night. I haven't checked but I bet it was our lowest shooting percentage of the season. We were getting some open shots from outside as they were completely collapsing in on Van Gorp, but they just didn't fall our way. Van Gorp only had 8 points. He had 0 at the half. Not his fault, we were loosing the ball too many times trying to get it to him. Finally just started shooting from outside. If we played UWO again. I think we could win by a good margin. I give them credit for clawing their way back. The Dutch were without Coach Steinkamp though due to illness. If the Coach was there I think we would have won and the 11 point lead might have turned into 20 instead of disappearing. After all Coach Steinkamp took the team picked to finish last to first place his first season.

That said, we struggled with Simpson and Coe beat us in the tourney last year. The teams that know us the best can be the hardest to beat.

Schipper, yes, the Dutch had this game in hand and should have won it, UWP hit a barrage of 3s down the stretch.  Honestly, this Central team is intriguing, very old school style often running double low post sets with Johnson and Van Gorp or, more effectively, running the offense through Johnson at the top of the key where he can play high/low with Van Gorp or distribute to the wings.  Johnson to me is the key.  If he can shoot the three at a slight percentage above his career 32%, Central becomes very dangerous because you really have to space the defense thus freeing up Van Gorp where his is most comfortable, the left low post block.

The real key for the Dutch though, is defense, those two large bodies take away the paint much of the time and really make it tough sledding for lane penetration and second chance points.  Big game at BV tonight--should be an easy time, but the Beavers are undefeated....we shall see.

[Schipper Strong]

Agree again Sparty. That said forget what I just said as the Dutch blow 18 pt lead they had at the half tonight at BV and Steinkamp was there. Not sure what he was thinking leaving three starters on the bench while the lead disappeared. I know with a big lead you want to get some other guys playing time, but don't risk the game for it. Dutch come away with a win, I think it was 83-76. But it is a road win against a team that used to consistently be at or near the top. We will take it. Grant Johnson with a deserved technical tonight for taking the ball to a BV player's head. Sounds bad and looked worse, but I truly believe he just meant to get the ball to the BV player to throw in after a made Central basket. I don't think he realized the guy was that close. When you are 6'10" unfortunately a chest height move meant to give the player the ball was head territory for the guy that was going to throw it in.

Van Gorp is the one that gets the most points of the two, but Johnson moving the ball around is a sight to behold. Except for that technical that is. He improved so much as a player last year. He is only going to get better this year.

[SpartyBlue]

Everyone holds serve in the ARC.  This looks like a three horse race between Central, Coe, and UD, with Loras having an outside chance.  Here is a scoring recap with some notes and observations from Matt Snyder's excellent Efficiency Ratings

Central 83 BV 76

Schipper recapped this well.  I have to give Grant Johnson credit, he might be the best player in the ARC right now.  Not flashy, but at 6' 10" is a very adept passer and rebounder with a great basketball IQ. 

Johnson does the work, Van Gorp gets the numbers, goes for 19 pts. 22 reb. last night--Van Gorp, to me, is fine, but he is a block scorer only, no explosiveness to speak of, but, he gets to hang out in the low post and not get double teamed, a deadly proposition with his size.  That's a good formula when you have Johnson and some serviceable guard play around you.  BVU made a valiant comeback, but I just don't think this is a very good team.  You're relying on Neubaum and Reed with a pretty weak supporting cast.  Note: Central is 53rd in AdjD

Dubuque 63 Luther 43

UD throttles the Norse for the umpteenth time in a row.  Luther just isn't good.  Bring back the same cast and you get the same results--horrible shooting team--43 pts. in your own gym is embarrassing.  Luther's perimeter defense is horrific, UD hits 11 teams threes, something they've done at will vs. Luther the last few years.

UD runs its ball screen continuity offense efficiently--the numbers look good early 25th in AdjO and 40th in AdjD...very impressive.  This team does play very slow, however, 406th in AdjT. 

Coe 82 Simpson 75  Another case of Simpson bringing back the same dudes, same results.  Coe gets a big game from Schnurr to offset Schmitt's 2-10 three pt. shooting night.  Kohawks are another impressive numbers team:  8th in AdjO 59th AdjD

Loras 100 Wartburg 89  The Duhawks win playing their uptempo style, this team can score, 11th AdjO, but defense will be an issue against the top of the ARC, 216 AdjD.  Balanced scoring with 6 guys in double figures.  Interestingly, Loras is a team to me that won't be tested much in the month of December, calendar is marked for January 6th vs. Central

[Schipper Strong]

I knew it was coming eventually. Brad Curren is having a night for Centrsl with 17 points at the half as a sub. 5 of 8 from 3 pt range. Van Gorp with a double double at the half. Dutch lead by 16 or 18 at the half. Wartburg with no commentary, shows Central up 40-22 at half. Listening to Central radio coverage and according to the radio we are up 40-24.

[Schipper Strong]

Central beats Wartburg 81-49 on the road. All starters out with more than 7 minutes left. Central clears the bench. Truly dominant performance by the Dutch. Curren scores 19 off the bench. What a break out game! To be fair, I don't think Wartburg has shot that poorly in years. Strange how often an entire team can have the same off night with shooting. I hope Central's off night is in the rear view mirror for the season. Sure looking forward to watching Curren develop.

[SpartyBlue]

Huge game on Saturday, Coe 8-1 @ Central 7-1.  Battle for the top of the ARC.  Massey has Coe 33 (taking into account Western Illinois in SoS) and Central 50.  Coe fell 77-66 to Illinois College and Central lost a game on the road to UW-Platteville that they had well in hand.  Massey has Coe picked 72-71. 

The Kohawks are fueled by two fifth year seniors in Cale Schmitt and TJ Schurr, both averaging 18 ppg. A wild card here is Bennett Sherry, 6' 6" junior who is averaging nearly 14 ppg and 7 rpg after averaging 5 ppg last year in similar minutes. That scoring leap has been huge for the Kohawks. 

It's no mystery that the Dutch are led by Van Gorp and Johnson, and will look to pound the ball down low to one or both of those 6' 10" seniors. 

In my estimation, this will be a half court game, both teams are patient on offense, Coe has been slightly more efficient offensively, they are a top 20 team in AdjO, they will work the ball around the perimeter and look for an easy bucket by Schurr or Bennett or play drive and kick with Schmitt driving into space.  Interesting, the Kohawks are not a good three point shooting team at 31.9%, and I believe you have to make threes to beat this Dutch team with the two space eaters clogging the lane.  Central is a good perimeter defense team, allowing only 28.6% to opponents.

I feel Central is a bit more suited to the grind it out game and will take a close one at home, 70-65 Dutch. 

[ARCFan20]

Hello all,

Hope I did this right. Been a fan of the ARC for about 20 years now. Grandson played in it. Thinking you might pick up some biases based on what team I mention a lot  . ARC is in great shape this year. Our 1-6 would compete in most leagues.

Who are the top commentators here? I see Doolittle Dog? Sparty Blue? Looks like Dubuque is MORE than covered here with some....strong opinions coming from their sides lol I'm excited to connect with you all.

Cheers,

M

[SpartyBlue]

Nice to see the ARC finally getting some well-deserved recognition.  Four teams have been nationally ranked, NWU currently #17 Coe # 19. 

Conference Tourney starts tonight, here are my current power rankings, we'll see how it plays out:

1.  Coe  Lost twice to NWU, otherwise unblemished...get the all important bye as the 2 seed

2. UD  Veteran group, get a home matchup against unpredictable but very tough Central squad--UD just pummeled them by 30 plus at home, this one will be closer.

3.  Central  Van Gorp and Johnson still a very tough out with that size and unique high/low game. 

4.  Loras  Duhawks have struggled a bit lately, crazy loss to Simpson and dominated by UD, but they are a dynamic offensive team...lucky to get a relatively easy night tonight vs. BVU

5.  NWU  I know they're ranked and have a great record, but just not sold on the Wolves winning this tournament when the intensity is ratcheted up and physical defense matters. They are 22-3, so props for that, I just don't think they win the ARC tournament, even with the huge advantage of not having to leave Lincoln.

6. BVU  A down year, cannon fodder for the Duhawks tonight.

[SpartyBlue]

UD 77 Central 73  Sparty does enough at home to pull this one out.  Grant Johnson's 1-11 3 point shooting performance and overall team shooting for Central didn't help.  UD is a patient team with a solid defense and the ability to score the ball at the rim with McCants and Kilburg and shoot the three when needed.

Loras 86 BV 62  No surprises here.


Thursday's Semis:

UD @ NWU  Season series was split between the home teams, but I think Sparty will go to Lincoln and pull this out with physical defense and opportune offensive attacks.  McCants is the key--Wolves will struggle to defend him, he had 29/14 in the first match up, and I think, was nursing an injury through much of January.  It looks like he's moving somewhat better now and is primed for a big day on the Nebraska prairie. 

Loras @ Coe  Two of the Duhawks five losses have been to Coe.  Loras just doesn't match up well with the strength of Coe.  Kohawks win here. 

[SpartyBlue]

Datacast Analytics rankings are interesting to contrast with eye test rankings:

         Rank      Adjusted Offense     Adjusted Defense      Adjusted Tempo

Dubuque   20.       109.6 55th          89.2 20th                69.4  339th

Coe       23.        108.5 72nd         88.4 16th                71.1 263rd

Loras     27.        116.6 6th          97.0  110th              72.5 197th

NWU       30.        112.5 29th          94.1 58th               67.9 386th

UD and NWU are two of the slower tempo, deliberate offensive teams in the country. Who can generate that slight percentage advantage in offensive in offensive efficiency in the half court game? 

[SpartyBlue]

One more observation--non-conference strength of schedule allowed a few teams to build spectacular records.  There is nothing wrong with this per se, but gaudy records lead to more national eyeballs in a division with 100s of teams.

Non-Conference Strength of Schedule:

Dubuque  255th
Coe 190th
Loras 389th
NWU 296th

[SpartyBlue]

NWU 73 UD 67  NWU TCB at home.  UD shoots 8% from three in the second half and missed several bunnies that would have closed the gap in the waning minutes and given them a chance.  NWU also goes 23-32 from the free throw line as 4/5th of the Spartan lineup either fouls out or nearly fouls out.  Let em play!

Loras 76 Coe 73  Duhawks pull the upset on the road.  Kohawks controlled this one until about 6 minutes left, when they went completely cold, scoring only three points in the final 6:25 on their own floor.  Funny game, basketball.

Championship Saturday Loras @ NWU  Loras beat NWU twice, 89-76 in Lincoln and 84-64 in Dubuque...tough to beat a team three times is the cliche.  Pick em'.

The bottom line is that the ARC deserves and it looks like could get four teams into the NCAA tournament. 

[ziggy]

Nebraska Wesleyan very well may be a deserving host if they win tonight's ARC title game but it seems they did not submit a bid: https://d3datacast.com/2024/02/24/sources-nebraska-wesleyan-did-not-submit-ncaa-host-bid/

[SpartyBlue]

The ARC gets four teams in the tournament!  The conference finally getting some well-deserved respect and has moved away from being a one bid-league. 

Dubuque vs. Illinois College     Great draw for Sparty, solid favorite in this first round matchup.  IC has a weak SoS, although did beat Coe back in November.  Waiting for the Spartans should be Wash U. on their own floor, a tough task to be sure.

Loras vs. Gustavus Adolphus  Loras gets another favorable first round draw against the MIAC champ. Duhawks win and advance, likely against UWP--for those who don't know, this is essentially a home floor for Loras as UWP is just 20 minutes up the road. 

NWU vs. Centenary   NWU travels to California to play a team from...Louisiana...Wolves again with a very winnable game on paper, then a tough one vs. Trinity, TX

Coe head to Indiana vs. Wabash   Tough draw for Coe vs. a team who has won 12 straight, then if you win, play a tough Trine team on their home floor. 

I'll predict the ARC goes 3-1 in the first round--Coe falling to Wabash.  UD and NWU advance to the sweet 16.

[doolittledog]

Love seeing 4 ARC teams in the field.  Now would love to see some runs by the teams that made it.