MBB: American Rivers Conference

[dunkin3117]

A huge 2nd half for Coe.  Trailing by 3 at the half, Coe used a 17-2 run from the 15 - 10 minute mark and held the Knights to just 12 points the remainder of the half.  Coe now sits in sole possession of the 2-seed with NWU coming up next Wednesday.

BV lead NWU at the halfway point, but much like Coe, NWU put the hammer down in the second half and walked away with 97-80 win. Reimers was 11-12 from the field for 26 points and 10 boards, while Schimonitz tallied 19 and 12 assists.

Current Standings
10-0 NWU
7-3 Coe
6-3 BV
6-4 Loras
5-4 UD
4-6 Simpson
3-7 Wartburg
2-8 Luther
1-9 Central

[SpartyBlue]

Wednesday Results

NWU 97 BV 80  As noted, one point BV lead at the half, NWU responds by shooting 61% and making nine threes in the second half

Coe 79 Wartburg 63  Two teams trending in different directions, fourth straight loss for Wartburg

Loras 86 Central 76  Very close box score, all five Central starters in double figures to no avail.  Turnover and three point make battles apparent difference for the Duhawks

Simpson 88 Luther 57  Storm avenge horrible 10 point loss 10 days ago in Decorah

[doolittledog]

I flipped between the BVU/NWU and Central/Loras games during the 2nd half of those games.  NWU is the clear leader.  Teams might be able to hang with them for awhile, but I think NWU has an answer for anything any other school in the ARC has for them this year.  I kind of feel for Central.  They are better than their 1-9 conference record indicates.  The Dutch gave Loras all they could handle.  It will be interesting to see how the 2-6 seeds play out over the next few weeks. 

[dunkin3117]

I would agree.  2-6 is going to be battle.  NWU has the #1 seed on lock.  Coe has a tough schedule down the stretch.  NWU at home, then travel to Loras and Simpson, home with BV.

I'm thinking seeds will end
1-NWU
2-BV
3-Coe
4-Loras
5-Simpson
6-UD

[SpartyBlue]

Saturday Around the ARC

Simpson 178 @ Loras 98  Simpson hasn't shown the ability to beat good teams.  UD handled them relatively easily twice and Storm lost by four at home to Loras.  Wagner and Reiter have under performed, and don't see that changing here.

Central 321 @ Wartburg 206  Must win for Wartburg.  Central is dangerous, but all but mathematically out of postseason contention.

BV 44 @ Luther 316

UD 113 @ NWU 8   NWU is an efficient machine humming along. Those five seniors can all score at any time and they run their Princeton point offense with lethal precision.  Have to hope for a cold shooting game and do not give second chance/extra possession buckets.  UW-River Falls game is the blueprint.  Obviously a tall task, but UD does shoot the three (20th in nation for made threes per game) so has an outside chance. 

[SpartyBlue]

I would agree.  2-6 is going to be battle.  NWU has the #1 seed on lock.  Coe has a tough schedule down the stretch.  NWU at home, then travel to Loras and Simpson, home with BV.

I'm thinking seeds will end
1-NWU
2-BV
3-Coe
4-Loras
5-Simpson
6-UD

1. NWU
2. BV
3. Loras/UD
4. UD/Loras
5. Coe
6. Simpson

[dunkin3117]

Luther with the stunner over BV this weekend.  The game was decided at the free throw line.  Both teams with nearly identical stat lines.  11/24 from 3 and both made 28 shots for the game. 

Things have certainly tightened up for seedings. 

11-0 NWU (at Coe, at Luther, Central, at Simpson, Loras)
7-3 Coe (NWU, at Loras, at Simpson, BV, UD, at Luther)
7-4 Loras (at BV, Coe, at UD, Wartburg, at NWU)
6-4 BV (Loras, UD, at Wartburg, at Coe, Central, at Simpson)
5-5 UD (at Central, at BV, Loras, Luther, at Coe, Wartburg)
4-7 Simpson (at Central, Coe, at Wartburg, NWU, BV)
4-7 Wartburg (at Luther, BV, Simpson, at Loras, at UD)
3-8 Luther (Wartburg, NWU, at Central, at UD, Coe)
1-10 Central (UD, Simpson, Luther, at NWU, at BV)

[SpartyBlue]

Saturday's Results

Loras 85 Simpson 67  Simpson's slide continues. Loras gets to 7 wins, yet has tough schedule to finish.

Wartburg 97 Central 88  Knights stay in postseason hunt.  Central shoots 54.5%, makes 13 treys, yet still falls.  -7 turnover ratio spells loss.

NWU 92 UD 66  NWU virtually unbeatable at home.  UD has favorable schedule and could get a bye with a win out.

Luther 87 BV 81  Shocker of the day.  Luther shows again they are a tough team on their own court. This loss really damages BV's at-large hopes and puts the bye completely in play for everyone else.

[SpartyBlue]

Luther with the stunner over BV this weekend.  The game was decided at the free throw line.  Both teams with nearly identical stat lines.  11/24 from 3 and both made 28 shots for the game. 

Things have certainly tightened up for seedings. 

11-0 NWU (at Coe, at Luther, Central, at Simpson, Loras)
7-3 Coe (NWU, at Loras, at Simpson, BV, UD, at Luther)
7-4 Loras (at BV, Coe, at UD, Wartburg, at NWU)
6-4 BV (Loras, UD, at Wartburg, at Coe, Central, at Simpson)
5-5 UD (at Central, at BV, Loras, Luther, at Coe, Wartburg)
4-7 Simpson (at Central, Coe, at Wartburg, NWU, BV)
4-7 Wartburg (at Luther, BV, Simpson, at Loras, at UD)
3-8 Luther (Wartburg, NWU, at Central, at UD, Coe)
1-10 Central (UD, Simpson, Luther, at NWU, at BV)

Fluid situation, seedings change with every game day.  Good compilation here.  In my opinion, remaining strength of schedule from easiest to toughest:

NWU  Doesn't matter much, but hard to see anyone beating them.

UD  @BV not easy.  Already beaten Central, Coe and Luther.  Get Wartburg (lost without Mitch Burger) and Loras at home. 

BV  Will enjoy home court against Loras and UD, 10 or 11 wins in play.

Simpson  Can't win a tough game, but on paper still in it. BV, Coe, NWU all in favorable environment at home and Wartburg and Central are winnable.  Still a path to 7 or even 8 wins. Losing twice to UD could really hurt in a tiebreak situation.

Coe   NWU, BV, UD at home, pick off one of those.  Loras, SC, Luther on road could result in two wins is path to 10 wins. Still not easy.

Loras  BV, NWU, UD all on road.  Already lost by 7 to Coe.  Home against Wartburg looks likely, although lost to them by 18.  Tough schedule.

Wartburg @Luther looks like a win, but tough finish, have to travel to Dubuque twice to end regular season.

Luther  Threat at home, but should struggle to find wins against hungry teams with more talent.

Central  Certainly better than 1-10, can't take them lightly, still what are psychological impacts of being out of it? Even if they win a couple at home, road finish @ BV and NWU is brutal. 

[dunkin3117]

I like the breakdown there.  I might even flip Loras and Wartburg. 

BV's at-large took a huge hit, looking like the ARC will be a 1-bid league this year unless someone upsets NWU in the conference tournament (unlikely). 

[SpartyBlue]

Wednesday Night in the ARC

UD 126 @ Central 327  UD's turn to take the quirky scheduling hit, only second game in 10 days. Sparty must win this on the road and they should.

NWU 8 @ Coe 99  Only a 6 point game in Lincoln due to Coe's three point shooting.  This one won't be that close.

Loras 95  @ BV 67  Huge game here.  Loras beat BV in overtime at home in first game and comes in riding three game wave. BV will be hungry coming off bad loss @ Luther.  I think this one will be very close.  The game at Loras was weird. Duhawks still had Jordan Boyd and won despite taking 25 fewer shots than the Beavers.  Feel like home court advantage will tip this one.

Wartburg 200 @ Luther 281  Can lightning strike twice in Decorah?  Luther at 7-13 has won five of those games at home.  They play with confidence in their gym.  Norse will parlay big upset of Beavers into conference win number four!

[dunkin3117]

Wednesday Night in the ARC

UD 126 @ Central 327  UD's turn to take the quirky scheduling hit, only second game in 10 days. Sparty must win this on the road and they should.

NWU 8 @ Coe 99  Only a 6 point game in Lincoln due to Coe's three point shooting.  This one won't be that close.

Loras 95  @ BV 67  Huge game here.  Loras beat BV in overtime at home in first game and comes in riding three game wave. BV will be hungry coming off bad loss @ Luther.  I think this one will be very close.  The game at Loras was weird. Duhawks still had Jordan Boyd and won despite taking 25 fewer shots than the Beavers.  Feel like home court advantage will tip this one.

Wartburg 200 @ Luther 281  Can lightning strike twice in Decorah?  Luther at 7-13 has won five of those games at home.  They play with confidence in their gym.  Norse will parlay big upset of Beavers into conference win number four!

Loras actually lost to BV at home in OT. 

[SpartyBlue]

Wednesday Results

NWU 84 Coe 78     Got this one wrong.  Improbably, Coe plays an nearly identical game to their first meeting against the Wolves and comes up six points short again.  Coe had three more three point makes, kept them in this.  Another factor is the free throws.  NWU gets to the line very frequently at home, for example first time these two teams met NWU 13-18, Coe 7-7, those numbers evened out a bit in Cedar Rapids NWU 7-12, Coe 12-18.  You need these kind of breaks to even have a chance of staying with NWU. 

Another comment I would make is that I believe that NWU might be a bit underrated at #8. I know the loss to St. Thomas plays a role, but again weird game, St. T went an incredible 19-39 from three, very identical from last year's tournament game.  This from a team who averages 11.2 threes per game.  Aside from that, and a similar scenario at UW-River Falls, NWU has proven to be incredibly efficient.  These kinds of teams who have a deep well of experience and are able to execute what they do with relaxed consistency are very dangerous.  What I'm getting at is that I really think NWU is a top four team with a very strong probability of winning it all. 

Loras 90 BV 83   Got this one wrong.  Huge win for Loras.  Even performance with all five starters in double figures, shot 56.4% from field.  Good formula for winning a basketball game.  Duhawks 8th win puts them in upper hand position for a conference tourney bye.

Wartburg 71 Luther 64  Got this one wrong.  Norse magic runs out.

UD 91 Central 82  Got something right.  Moody's surprise return makes Dutch a more competitive team, but not enough to overcome 15 made threes and 56 second half points from Sparty. 

[SpartyBlue]

Wednesday Night in the ARC

UD 126 @ Central 327  UD's turn to take the quirky scheduling hit, only second game in 10 days. Sparty must win this on the road and they should.

NWU 8 @ Coe 99  Only a 6 point game in Lincoln due to Coe's three point shooting.  This one won't be that close.

Loras 95  @ BV 67  Huge game here.  Loras beat BV in overtime at home in first game and comes in riding three game wave. BV will be hungry coming off bad loss @ Luther.  I think this one will be very close.  The game at Loras was weird. Duhawks still had Jordan Boyd and won despite taking 25 fewer shots than the Beavers.  Feel like home court advantage will tip this one.

Wartburg 200 @ Luther 281  Can lightning strike twice in Decorah?  Luther at 7-13 has won five of those games at home.  They play with confidence in their gym.  Norse will parlay big upset of Beavers into conference win number four!

Loras actually lost to BV at home in OT.

My mistake.  Loras avenged that loss last night.

[SpartyBlue]

Luther with the stunner over BV this weekend.  The game was decided at the free throw line.  Both teams with nearly identical stat lines.  11/24 from 3 and both made 28 shots for the game. 

Things have certainly tightened up for seedings. 

11-0 NWU (at Coe, at Luther, Central, at Simpson, Loras)
7-3 Coe (NWU, at Loras, at Simpson, BV, UD, at Luther)
7-4 Loras (at BV, Coe, at UD, Wartburg, at NWU)
6-4 BV (Loras, UD, at Wartburg, at Coe, Central, at Simpson)
5-5 UD (at Central, at BV, Loras, Luther, at Coe, Wartburg)
4-7 Simpson (at Central, Coe, at Wartburg, NWU, BV)
4-7 Wartburg (at Luther, BV, Simpson, at Loras, at UD)
3-8 Luther (Wartburg, NWU, at Central, at UD, Coe)
1-10 Central (UD, Simpson, Luther, at NWU, at BV)

Computer projected final standings as of 2/6. 

NWU 16-0
Coe 11-5
Loras 10-6
BV 10-6
UD 9-7
Wartburg 6-10
Simpson 5-11
Luther 3-13
Central 2-14