MBB: American Rivers Conference

[dunkin3117]

I wouldn't say that the league is worse than anyone thought.  I think the only team not living up to expectations would be Simpson.  BV might be exceeding expectations.  In all, I think this is still one of the most competitive leagues in the country.  Might not see it in the national rankings, but there are several teams that could compete with anyone in the country.  Much like the CCIW, teams just beat up on each other in conference play. There is no doormat.  Central would find themselves in the mix had Moody (12 games) and Spoehr (season) not been injured.

[SpartyBlue]

My opinion is that NWU is just that good.  I don't have advanced offensive efficiency stats, but leading the nation in team FG% at 53.30 is impressive.  This is not a soft league defensively. 

Schimonitz is in my opinion the best player in the country.  He gets to where he wants to go and runs the Princeton point like a maestro, is 4th in the nation at 26.0 ppg AND 20th in the nation at 5.9 apg. The latter stat is indicative of both how unselfish he and the offense they run is and how good the other four starting seniors are. 

On the other end of the floor, the 3-2 zone causes lots of problems, it is unconventional and really prevents teams from generating flow.  The key to beating this team is shooting lights out from three.  St. Thomas went an absurd 19/39 in their win earlier this year (and incidentally went 15/40 in the tournament game last year) and UW-River Falls went 18/30 from beyond the arc.  Playing them is like playing a grandmaster in chess, you might hang on in the opening for a bit, then suddenly one slightly bad move and you're out of position and the end is coming fast.  Little margin for error.

I would say the ARC is down a bit, but not terribly.  The difference this year is that you don't have a second national profile team like Loras was last year.  Objectively, the ARC ranks 11 out of 46 conferences, no longer top 5, but still strong.  Simpson was also a team who was being talked about in some national conversations and brought back their best three players from a 9-7 team, but is currently 4-9.  I'm not sure if this speaks to the conference being tough or Simpson not being as talented as we thought.  I suspect it's some of both.  Loras, Coe, BV, and UD are all very good teams and not easy touches.

[doolittledog]

Basketball can be a strange game.  With 11:02 left in the contest last night Luther was leading Dubuque 59-45.  Spartans win 85-83.  First 29 minutes UD scores 45 points, last 11 they score 40.  And it wasn't like the Norse collapsed, they still scored 24 points over the last 11 minutes, they were still making shots. 

One more week to see how the conference tourney seedings shake out. 

[SpartyBlue]

Saturday Results

UD 85 Luther 83   Strange game, indeed doolittle.  Norse put up a spirited last gasp, came out raining threes, went  9/15 in the first half, even weirder, seven players hit at least one three in that half alone. Luther shot 51.6% from the field in the first half.  They could not keep this up but...UD shot, yup, 51.6% from the field in the second half and Mitch Burger's last second drive and finish won it. Sparty looks like a likely five seed.

NWU 91 Central 70  No surprises here.

Coe 81 BV 72  Coe stakes claim to third best team in conference.  Postseason tourney is going to be exciting.

Simpson 87 Wartburg 73  Riordan and Wagner finally put it together, combining for 62 (31 each).  These two teams now tied for last spot in tourney.  Wartburg gets @ Loras @ UD, while Simpson is home with NWU and BV.   

[dunkin3117]

Some very interesting scenarios are about to play out.  NWU has locked the #1 seed.  The way I am seeing it...

Loras and Coe can finish anywhere from the 2-4. 
BV anywhere from 3-5. 
UD anywhere from 3-7. 
Wartburg and Simpson 5-7. 
Luther could maybe squeak in as the 6. 

To many tiebreaker scenarios for me to figure out right now, but I think that should be ballpark seeding possibilities. 

Current Standings
14-0 NWU (at Simpson, Loras)
10-4 Loras (Wartburg, at NWU)
9-5 Coe (UD, at Luther)
8-6 BV (Central, at Simpson)
7-7 UD (at Coe, Wartburg)
5-9 Wartburg (at Loras, at UD)
5-9 Simpson (NWU, BV)
4-11 Luther (BYE, Coe)
2-13 Central (at BV, BYE)

[SpartyBlue]

 Adjusted Efficiency Margin for ARC teams   - This is the number of points (per 100 possessions) by which the team in question would be expected to beat an average team. Out of 422 D-3 schools.

NWU 25.9 (3)
BVU 15.1 (48
Coe 10.8 (91)
Loras 7.7 (116)
Simpson 3.2 (169)
UD 2.6 (176)
Wartburg -0.7 (216)
Central -8.4 (323)
Luther -9.7 (341)

ARC as a whole ranks 10th at 5.2 out of 44 conferences.

[SpartyBlue]

Wednesday in the ARC

It's late February and things are fluid in the conference race.  Buckle up.

UD 130 @ Coe 86  UD handled Coe at home relatively easily. Tougher task in Cedar Rapids.

NWU 6 @ Simpson 187  Simpson gets in with a tie or better with Wartburg.  That said,  all Wolves in this one.

Central 319 @ BV 73  BV right in the thick of the seeding battle cruises here.

Wartburg 208 @ Loras  67  Knights have to finish ahead of Simpson for a postseason berth.  That means they have to win at least one game in Dubuque.  I say they won't.

[SpartyBlue]

My opinion is that NWU is just that good.  I don't have advanced offensive efficiency stats, but leading the nation in team FG% at 53.30 is impressive.  This is not a soft league defensively. 

Schimonitz is in my opinion the best player in the country.  He gets to where he wants to go and runs the Princeton point like a maestro, is 4th in the nation at 26.0 ppg AND 20th in the nation at 5.9 apg. The latter stat is indicative of both how unselfish he and the offense they run is and how good the other four starting seniors are. 

On the other end of the floor, the 3-2 zone causes lots of problems, it is unconventional and really prevents teams from generating flow.  The key to beating this team is shooting lights out from three.  St. Thomas went an absurd 19/39 in their win earlier this year (and incidentally went 15/40 in the tournament game last year) and UW-River Falls went 18/30 from beyond the arc.  Playing them is like playing a grandmaster in chess, you might hang on in the opening for a bit, then suddenly one slightly bad move and you're out of position and the end is coming fast.  Little margin for error.

I would say the ARC is down a bit, but not terribly.  The difference this year is that you don't have a second national profile team like Loras was last year.  Objectively, the ARC ranks 11 out of 46 conferences, no longer top 5, but still strong.  Simpson was also a team who was being talked about in some national conversations and brought back their best three players from a 9-7 team, but is currently 4-9.  I'm not sure if this speaks to the conference being tough or Simpson not being as talented as we thought.  I suspect it's some of both.  Loras, Coe, BV, and UD are all very good teams and not easy touches.

So, now I do have some efficiency stats

Adjusted Efficiency Margin - This is the number of points (per 100 possessions) by which the team in question would be expected to beat an average team.

25.9 3rd out of 422 teams (St. Thomas is 2nd)

Adjusted Offense - This is the number of points (per 100 possessions) that the team in question would be expected to score against an average defense.

122.9 1st/422  This verifies the lethality of the Wolves offense

Adjusted Defense - This is the number of points (per 100 possessions) that the team in question would be expected to allow against an average offense.

97.0  103/422 somewhat surprising and the only top 10 team outside of the top 100.  For comparison, St. Thomas is 17th

Adjusted Tempo - This is the speed, in possessions per 40 minutes, at which the team in question would be expected to play against an average team.

72.4  280/422 NCAA average is 75

Win50 - This column represents the median rating of all off the opponents a team has played so far this season. This strength of schedule indicator is less susceptible to swings caused by a small handful of particularly poor (or strong) opponents.

2.6 152/422

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 2's Regional Rankings are out: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/men-regional-rankings-second

[Fannosaurus Rex]

BV's pep band rocked.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

The camera work on the webcast was pretty good also.

[duckfan41]

Wednesday in the ARC

It's late February and things are fluid in the conference race.  Buckle up.

UD 130 @ Coe 86  UD handled Coe at home relatively easily. Tougher task in Cedar Rapids.

NWU 6 @ Simpson 187  Simpson gets in with a tie or better with Wartburg.  That said,  all Wolves in this one.

Central 319 @ BV 73  BV right in the thick of the seeding battle cruises here.

Wartburg 208 @ Loras  67  Knights have to finish ahead of Simpson for a postseason berth.  That means they have to win at least one game in Dubuque.  I say they won't.

Basketball is a crazy game. Simpson almost thirty-pieced NWU last night... I'm surprised no one has posted here about that yet

[SpartyBlue]

Wednesday Results

Simpson 86 NWU 59  Whoa.  More evidence that I need to give up the prediction game.  How did this happen?  NWU shoots 30.9 vs. Simpson's 53.3.  Simpson is an average defensive team by the numbers.  Anomalous bad night for the Wolves? 

Coe 81 UD 72  Another bad first half dooms Sparty.  Fun fact: Coe has won back-to-back home games by the same score, 81-72.  They shot 52% in the first half of each game.

Wartburg 84 Loras 81  Wow, Wartburg outplays Loras in Dubuque.  Saturday is going to be interesting.

BV 97 Central 85

[dunkin3117]

That was definitely a shocker to see this morning.  These seeding scenarios are bonkers.  To many tiebreaker scenarios to work though for everyone, but Simpson should be in with a win or Wartburg loss.

1-NWU
2-Loras/Coe
3-Loras/Coe
4-BV
5-UD/Wartburg
6-UD/Wartburg/Simpson

[SpartyBlue]

Standings and Saturday Games

NWU 14-1  vs. Loras
Loras 10-5 @ NWU   Loss and Coe win makes Coe 2 seed, Loras 3
Coe 10-5 @ Luther  We'll assume Coe wins
BV 9-6 @ Simpson  Likely Loras loss and BV win means Loras 3 seed BV 4 by virtue of head-to-head record vs. Coe
UD 7-8 vs. Wartburg  UD win and in, Wartburg win is a monkey wrench.   
Simpson 6-9  vs. BV
Wartburg 6-9 @ UD
Luther 4-11
Central 2-14

5th and 6th seed scenarios based on this...

Tie-breaker criteria for tournament seeding:
4.2.1. Head-to-head record
4.2.2. Record vs. teams in descending order, starting with first place
4.2.3. Record in conference road games
4.2.4. Record in last eight conference games overall
4.2.5. Coin flip (three-way-odd team gets the higher seed)
[Note: In a multiple-team tie, always return to head-to-head competition with the remaining teams after the highest
seed has been determined. To break a first place/third place tie, the first place teams will compare head-to-head
records vs. combined third-place team records.]

UD win and in.  Simpson would get in based on head-to-head over Wartburg, but would be 6 seed based on head-to-head vs. UD

Wartburg win and Simpson loss Wartburg 5 and UD 6 based on head-to-head

Wartburg and Simpson win, Three way tie UD 2-2, Simpson 2-2, Wartburg 2-2 head-to-head-to-head, goes descending order, Simpson in with NWU win, if Coe 2nd UD in, if Loras 2nd Wartburg in.  I think...