MBB: American Rivers Conference

[The Show]

Who were the big 3?

[sportsknight]

That would be Schmidt, Steege, and Cartmill.  Losing a pair of 1000 point scorers and the guy that had played in more games than anyone else in program will hurt any team.

I have only seen Wartburg play against UNI so far this year, so I'm not going to be the best judge of what is ailing them.  But what I've seen from the stats, they're two biggest problems are giving up way too high a shooting percentage and not taking good shots.  Cornell shot 49%, 65% for Coe, and a whopping 69% for Central.  The difference in the Simpson game was that the Storm made 16 more free throws than Wartburg shot.  As far as shot selection goes, the Knights have hoisted up 25 three-pointers or more in 3 of the 4 conference games I found stats for, including tossing up 45 against Simpson.  Of those games, Wartburg only shot above 50% from distance once, in the OT loss at Coe. 

With the exceptions of Nelson, Gullickson, Vogel, and Menke, this Wartburg team is young and may not yet have the discipline to work hard on D and look for better shots, but those things will come.  I certainly don't see Wartburg going 0-fer the conference, but this is definitely the year for other IIAC take their licks against a weaker Wartburg team.  When the Knights get into the new facility next year, I think some of these problems will have been corrected.

[Hawk Sighting]

  When the Knights get into the new facility next year, I think some of these problems will have been corrected.

You are saying that besides youth the reason they are 0-5 right now is because of facility?  COME ON!  You could take this years team, put them in a great facility and the outcome will be the same.  I agree that some of the problems will be corrected, but it has nothing to do with facility, it has to do with going through a sh*tty start of a year. 

I understand that the Wartburg backers are excited about the new facility, as you should be.  But are you aware that Wartburg will be in the negative for decades?!  With their current enrollment they will just be making enough to pay off the interest on the loans they took out, they can't even start paying back the "real" money.

Good Day..

[StormE]

Sportsknight, you're right about Warburg's play.  I've only seen them when they were down in Indianola, but they did attempt considerably fewer free throws and astronomically more threes.  They didn't seem to realize they had an offensive player right under the hoop that they could pass to, so all but three players who saw time attempted more three pointers than they attempted from the rest of the floor!! That also led to Wartburg's 18 points in the paint but 14 2nd chance pts....seems to indicate that they don't count on their young inside players to make the first move, but I can't blame them.

Granted, Simpson has had a tough time recently guarding the perimeter because of the way we double the post, so perhaps they were trying to play to our weakness, but at some point you have to realize that shooting only gets easier the closer you get to the hole.  Our guys haven't been shooting great from any point on the floor, so to win being only 42% from the field shows we just got lucky that Wartburg couldn't hit the broad side of a barn and we could at least hit the front side.

[doolittledog]

Luther come back after losing by 1 point last night and wins a close one tonight 62-58 over Dubuque.

I thought the Luther student broadcasters did a good job of announcing the game tonight.  What little I could hear between watching the Wiggles with our son.  They made a good point with about 5 minutes left in the game with the game about a 3 point difference, that Dubuque seems to either win a game big or they lose a close one.  Which obviously they were happy to note that since they of course wanted Luther to win and this was in fact a close game.   

[doolittledog]

Hawk Sighting, I think you are wrong.  Different teams of course react differently.  But you take an inexperienced and young team and make them play their home games 20 miles away on another schools floor and you can make a pretty good case that is the #1 reason a typically successfull school has now started their conference part of the season at 0-5

That doesn't say they would be challenging for the conference title if they were playing on campus in a shining new facility but I think you could certainly argue playing at home vs. playing 20 miles away for home games could be worth 5-6 wins over the course of an entire season. 

I thought Wartburg would most likely struggle a bit this year but I don't think they would be 0-5 at this point regardless of whether they were playing at home or at UNI.

[sportsknight]

  When the Knights get into the new facility next year, I think some of these problems will have been corrected.

You are saying that besides youth the reason they are 0-5 right now is because of facility?  COME ON!  You could take this years team, put them in a great facility and the outcome will be the same.  I agree that some of the problems will be corrected, but it has nothing to do with facility, it has to do with going through a sh*tty start of a year. 

I understand that the Wartburg backers are excited about the new facility, as you should be.  But are you aware that Wartburg will be in the negative for decades?!  With their current enrollment they will just be making enough to pay off the interest on the loans they took out, they can't even start paying back the "real" money.

Good Day..

Whoa, slow down now.  I wasn't saying that the facility will make the difference, but a season's worth of experience will make the difference.  Playing in Waverly without having to drive 20 miles for home games will help matters, but the increased experience will help more.

Secondly, I wouldn't start commenting on Wartburg's bottom line until you actually know what you're talking about.  Wartburg just got completed a campaign that brought in $90 million dollars, some of which will be committed to the new facility.  Also, Wartburg won't be footing the entire bill, the city of Waverly is picking up some of the cost for the new Wartburg/Waverly Sports and Wellness Center.  Also, Wartburg's alums give generously enough that the school won't need to rely on enrollment (which has gone up every year for the last 11, by the way) to complete their financial obligations.

[oldgold]

The Knights are a very young team this year and have been decimated to some extent by the injury bug.  Two freshmen that were starting early in the season are out for the year, and it seems that they have been very tough to replace.  I also feel that them having their home games on the road makes a bit of a difference.  They get to practice maybe once a week at the game gym and their practices and walk throughs are at high school/middle school gyms.  Not an advantage.  The new facilities will be nice next year.

The team will get better as the season continues and I am excited to see this team next year after a full season of experience.  They have very talented young players and should make some noise in the conference in the upcoming years.

[warthog]

Predictions:

Wartburg will finish 6th in the IIAC, which means they will pass 3 teams that are currently ahead of them.
As the conference tournament 6th seed they will beat the 3rd seed in the tournanment.

The 2007-2008 Knights will be like this year's New Orleans Saints.  The Knights will return home after spending a year wandering in the wilderness and will win the IIAC basketball regular season championship and tournament.

Once again this year, Wartburg will win the IIAC men's all-sports trophy.  It will just be closer than usual. 

Put it in the book and remember you heard it all here first.

[Storm-what?]

LOL you are crazy if you think Wartburg is not tuition driven! With an average endowment and a very high debt load, they (like every school except Grinnell) will be tuition driven for a LONG time! Record enrollment is great, but 3 of the past 6 years Wartburg has been negative on operating income. Put it this way, record enrollment is keeping WArtburg afloat, not surpassing any financial goals! Alumni giving is a drop in the bucket! There is a price for all of these buildings WArtburg is putting up. It's a gamble and they better hope that enrollment stays as strong as it has been. (including retention rates, which seem to be slipping).

[Hawk Sighting]

LOL you are crazy if you think Wartburg is not tuition driven! With an average endowment and a very high debt load, they (like every school except Grinnell) will be tuition driven for a LONG time! Record enrollment is great, but 3 of the past 6 years Wartburg has been negative on operating income. Put it this way, record enrollment is keeping WArtburg afloat, not surpassing any financial goals! Alumni giving is a drop in the bucket! There is a price for all of these buildings WArtburg is putting up. It's a gamble and they better hope that enrollment stays as strong as it has been. (including retention rates, which seem to be slipping).

Thank you Storm-what?!  I was hoping I wasnt the only one seeing the WHOLE picture.  Everything you stated is true.

[/quote]

Whoa, slow down now.  I wasn't saying that the facility will make the difference, but a season's worth of experience will make the difference.  Playing in Waverly without having to drive 20 miles for home games will help matters, but the increased experience will help more.

Secondly, I wouldn't start commenting on Wartburg's bottom line until you actually know what you're talking about.  Wartburg just got completed a campaign that brought in $90 million dollars, some of which will be committed to the new facility.  Also, Wartburg won't be footing the entire bill, the city of Waverly is picking up some of the cost for the new Wartburg/Waverly Sports and Wellness Center.  Also, Wartburg's alums give generously enough that the school won't need to rely on enrollment (which has gone up every year for the last 11, by the way) to complete their financial obligations.
[/quote]

I do actually know what I am talking about and it looks like you don't or being misinformed about what is really going on.  That $90 Mil. is already spoken for!  I will refer you back to Storm-what? for the answers to your other statements. 

Good Day!

[Storm-what?]

Indeed Hawksighting. Of that $90 million, about half of it won't even be realized for many years (pledges, trusts, etc). Much of the rest will go toward debt and/or trying to rebuild the endowment.

So, this campaign is great but it doesn't solve all problems. 

[sportsknight]

LOL you are crazy if you think Wartburg is not tuition driven! With an average endowment and a very high debt load, they (like every school except Grinnell) will be tuition driven for a LONG time! Record enrollment is great, but 3 of the past 6 years Wartburg has been negative on operating income. Put it this way, record enrollment is keeping WArtburg afloat, not surpassing any financial goals! Alumni giving is a drop in the bucket! There is a price for all of these buildings WArtburg is putting up. It's a gamble and they better hope that enrollment stays as strong as it has been. (including retention rates, which seem to be slipping).

I find it very interesting that you know so much about Wartburg's bottom line.  I'd be interested to know where you get your information.

[Storm-what?]

Mostly Wartburg's own website. A little from Fitch Financial group, a financial brokerage firm.

[Storm-what?]

From Fitch Financial: "Credit concerns include negative operating margins for three years of the past six years and a high debt burden. The primary revenue source for the college, representing 83.7% of fiscal 2005 revenue, is student-generated.

Wartburg's existing debt burden is high. For fiscal 2005, debt service consumed 9.1% of unrestricted revenues. The debt burden is above the Fitch 'BBB' median of 4.9%."

From Wartburg's own site, you can see they borrowed $50 million for the science and student centers. Their bond  rating then dropped to BBB-, one half step away from a junk bond, because of their high debt load.

Then they borrowed $35 million to build the wellness center. This debt went "unrated" which means it IS a junk bond, something most investors stear very clear of.

The article goes on to say:
Dr. A. Frank Thompson, professor of finance at UNI, had a more negative view of the bond ratings and the financial situation in general. "The perspective I have, for well-run businesses, anytime you get above 30 percent debt leverage, solvency may be impaired," he said. Thompson also mentioned that the large increase in debt was a concern and that "outside markets recognized that by rating Wartburg BBB-."

Negative operating margins also gave Thompson pause. Wartburg is "generating expenses very above what [they] have in the way of revenues, and that's a big danger," Thompson said.

Wartburg has also sold another set of unrated bonds worth $35 million to fund the construction of the new wellness center.

Thompson said unrated bonds can mean "serious financial difficulties on the horizon." He said the investing community typically sees unrated bonds as a sign that the institution holding them deems them "to be less than investment grade" and doesn't want to get a low rating.

"There's a lot of investors who are legally prohibited from investing in [junk bonds]," Fullwiler said.


http://public.wartburg.edu/trumpet/2006/feb20/commission.html