MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[AO]

I think Carleton can survive a few upsets and still get in.  They're a lock if they selected today, and a few upsets just puts them on the bubble.

One other tangent on officiating, not really related to last night but just to officiating in general. I'll never understand why there's this sentiment that the playoffs should be called differently than the regular season. The rule book doesn't change at playoff time. If it was a foul in the regular season, its a foul in the playoffs, IMO. The amount of grabbing, bumping and shoving never happened the previous 25 games, so not sure why those aren't fouls in the postseason. It went both ways last night--Jonker figured out pretty quick that legal post defense could include two hands in the back of the offensive player, with a good amount of pushing being allowed.

Refs call it a bit different in the playoffs, but the players are playing differently as well.  The ref may have allowed Jonker to play defense with two hands in the back during the regular season, but he just didn't play that way.  If the refs are consistent, letting the aggressive play go without blowing the whistle constantly makes for a better game.  The problem I have with playoff refs is when they favor the more aggressive team who is losing and fighting to get back in the game.  If you're going to allow the contact by teamB when teamA is trying to break the press, don't call a foul on teamA when the same amount of contact occurs when teamB is driving to the hoop. -----

[Gregory Sager]

Fear not, Carleton fans. This is what d3boards.com's resident numbers-cruncher, KnightSlappy, has to say about who's most likely in and who's most likely not, vis-a-vis Pool C, over in the Multi-Regional Topics area:

Teams that have lost that look to be in decent Pool C range:

Concordia (Wis.)
Western Connecticut
Oswego State
Ramapo
Ithaca
Gwynedd-Mercy
Carleton

Teams that have lost that are on the Pool C bubble:

Keystone
Wabash
Hobart
Kean

Teams that have not lost that look to be in decent Pool C range:

Middlebury
Randolph-Macon
Penn State-Behrend
Amherst
UW-River Falls

Teams that have not lost that look to be on the Pool C bubble:

Eastern Mennonite
Wittenberg
Ferrum
St. Josephs (L.I.)
Hanover
Whitman

'Projected A's'
AMCC   La Roche
ASC   Texas-Dallas
CAC   St. Marys (Md.)
CC   Franklin and Marshall
CCC   Wentworth
CCIW   Augustana
CSAC   Cabrini
CUNYAC   Staten Island
E8   St. John Fisher
GNAC   St. Josephs (Maine)
HCAC   Manchester
IIAC   Luther
LAND   Scranton
LEC   Rhode Island College
LL   Skidmore
MACC   Alvernia
MACF   DeSales
MASCAC   Salem State
MIAA   Hope
MIAC   St. Thomas
MWC   St. Norbert
NAC   Husson
NATHC   Benedictine
NCAC   Wooster
NEAC   Penn State-Harrisburg
NECC   Becker
NESCAC   Williams
NEWMAC   WPI
NJAC   New Jersey City
NWC   Whitworth
OAC   Marietta
ODAC   Virginia Wesleyan
PrAC   Thiel
SCAC   Centre
SCIAC   Redlands
SKY   SUNY-Purchase
SLIAC   Webster
SUNYAC   Buffalo State
UAA   Rochester
UMAC   Northwestern (Minn.)
USAC   North Carolina Wesleyan
WIAC   UW-Stevens Point

[gacbacker]

I think Carleton's Pool C chances rest in the hands of the Tommies. If the Gusties win tomorrow, St. Thomas is going to get that Pool C bid and Carleton will be left sitting at home.

[Gregory Sager]

I think Carleton's Pool C chances rest in the hands of the Tommies. If the Gusties win tomorrow, St. Thomas is going to get that Pool C bid and Carleton will be left sitting at home.

I think I'll put my money on the guy who is actually doing all of the mathematical homework to figure this stuff out, gacbacker. And, unless you prove otherwise, that numbers-cruncher ain't you.

[John Gleich]

I think Carleton's Pool C chances rest in the hands of the Tommies. If the Gusties win tomorrow, St. Thomas is going to get that Pool C bid and Carleton will be left sitting at home.

I'm not 100% sold on that... though  if the Tommies lose, that's just one more team that has to get a bid before Carleton gets a chance.

The projections have both Carleton and River Falls getting in... the question is who will be ranked higher in the (unseen) regional rankings.  Carleton was ahead with the last ranking... but lost in the semi's and RF lost in the final after winning in the semi's.  May be the difference that swaps them... but who knows?

[carletonsid]

I think Carleton's Pool C chances rest in the hands of the Tommies. If the Gusties win tomorrow, St. Thomas is going to get that Pool C bid and Carleton will be left sitting at home.

I think I'll put my money on the guy who is actually doing all of the mathematical homework to figure this stuff out, gacbacker. And, unless you prove otherwise, that numbers-cruncher ain't you.

I'm crunching the numbers, but as I showed with my Grinnell comment in the Pool C room, I have a limited amount of knowledge!

In all seriousness, it's looking tight but doable for the Knights. Some upsets early in the day were unsettling, but if UST, Randolph-Macon, and Manchester can take care of business tomorrow, that would help Carleton. I would say (and again, this is my limited opinion and working off the great stuff done by folks like KnightSlappy and others) is that there are 10-11 Pool C "locks" at this point. I would say there are 9-11 teams on the table for those final at-large bids. There are others around that know way more than I do, and hopefully they'll chime in with a higher level of knowledge!

So, while GAC winning doesn't automatically sink Carleton tomorrow, it certainly doesn't help. I also think it will be interesting how the committee handles Carleton and UW-River Falls and if the Falcons jump the Knights this week.

By the way, the ol' alma mater (Luther) is going dancing for the first time since 1984! Never mind it took a Wartburg man to get the job done--GO NORSE!

[gacbacker]

I think Carleton's Pool C chances rest in the hands of the Tommies. If the Gusties win tomorrow, St. Thomas is going to get that Pool C bid and Carleton will be left sitting at home.

I think I'll put my money on the guy who is actually doing all of the mathematical homework to figure this stuff out, gacbacker. And, unless you prove otherwise, that numbers-cruncher ain't you.

If you take a look at your number cruncher's data, Greg, you will see that he is assuming that St. Thomas will earn the automatic berth tomorrow. My point is that if Gustavus earns the automatic berth, St. Thomas could very well replace Carleton in the Pool C hierarchy. The chances of the MIAC getting three teams in is slim and I think if you conferred with your number cruncher he would agree with me. 

[John Gleich]

I think Carleton's Pool C chances rest in the hands of the Tommies. If the Gusties win tomorrow, St. Thomas is going to get that Pool C bid and Carleton will be left sitting at home.

I think I'll put my money on the guy who is actually doing all of the mathematical homework to figure this stuff out, gacbacker. And, unless you prove otherwise, that numbers-cruncher ain't you.

If you take a look at your number cruncher's data, Greg, you will see that he is assuming that St. Thomas will earn the automatic berth tomorrow. My point is that if Gustavus earns the automatic berth, St. Thomas could very well replace Carleton in the Pool C hierarchy. The chances of the MIAC getting three teams in is slim and I think if you conferred with your number cruncher he would agree with me. 

I think that it's abundantly clear that St. Thomas is above Carleton in terms of getting a Pool C...

West Region
1 Whitworth 24-1 24-1 NWC Pool A
2 St. Thomas 21-3 22-3
3 UW-Stevens Point 21-3 22-3 WIAC Pool A
4 Chapman 14-1 21-3  Pool B
5 Carleton 18-5 18-7  Lost in MIAC semi's
6 UW-River Falls 17-5 19-6 Lost in WIAC semi's
7 Whitman 13-5 18-7 Lost in NWC final
8 Lewis and Clark 12-5 18-7 Lost in NWC semi's
9 UW-Whitewater 16-8 17-8 Lost in WIAC semi's


But, if the rankings stay as they are, Carleton is either the 2nd West team up for consideration.  That's a pretty darn long time (assuming that UST gets one of the first, say, 5 or 6 Pool C bids with a loss).  If UST wins, then Carleton would be THE team.

Now, it isn't necessarily evident that Carleton will stay where they are right now...  But I don't think we know enough yet to say with any real confidence how many bids the West may be up for.

It looks like there are 12 conferences with tournaments tomorrow.  Of those, there's at least one guaranteed team getting a C... the loser of Middlebury/Williams.  But there's so much room for speculation on the rest...  It will be clearer with each championship that is completed.

[AO]

If you take a look at your number cruncher's data, Greg, you will see that he is assuming that St. Thomas will earn the automatic berth tomorrow. My point is that if Gustavus earns the automatic berth, St. Thomas could very well replace Carleton in the Pool C hierarchy. The chances of the MIAC getting three teams in is slim and I think if you conferred with your number cruncher he would agree with me. 

Let me repost Knightslappy's predicitions here:

Teams that have lost that look to be in decent Pool C range:

Concordia (Wis.)
Western Connecticut
Oswego State
Ramapo
Ithaca
Gwynedd-Mercy
Carleton

Teams that have lost that are on the Pool C bubble:

Keystone
Wabash
Hobart
Kean

Teams that have not lost that look to be in decent Pool C range:

Middlebury
Randolph-Macon
Penn State-Behrend
Amherst
UW-River Falls

Teams that have not lost that look to be on the Pool C bubble:

Eastern Mennonite
Wittenberg
Ferrum
St. Josephs (L.I.)
Hanover
Whitman

Carleton is listed among the first 12 pool c bids.  As there are 18 bids, the tommies would knock off one of the bubble teams before affecting Carleton.

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

should be a good game today.....in 11 years of the 6-team format, this is the first time a #5 seed has made the final. The 3 and 4 seeds have made it once each, the #2 has made it 10 times, the #1 has been in 8 finals....#6 has never made final. This is the 4th time UST & GAC have met for all the marbles...GAC has a 2-1 edge, but the higher seed has won 2 of the 3 as well.

The key will be controlling the tempo. UST should be much more up-tempo....use its depth advantage. Defensively, keep Wirtjes offbalance and limit the damage Anderson can do. Work the ball inside to Hannon on offense to force GAC to sag, freeing Nicolai enough to be deadly.

my guess on the final -- UST 78-63... then on to hosting a first weekend of NCAA action!

[Pat Coleman]

If you can't make it, tune us in:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/d3hoops-men-broadcast

[AO]

quick reaction: where was john nance and brady ervin in miacmaniac's keys to victory?  20 for Nance who seemed to feed off the gustie student section 'd1 dropout' bit.  and Brady Ervin with 16, 7 boards and 2 steals not to mention generally being everywhere.

Very nice effort by the Gusties, especially mr. Anderson.  I have a hard time understanding how this team went on a six game losing streak, no matter how tough the schedule. 

As this was my first trip out to the new Shoe, a quick review is in order.  It's a beautiful gym with all the amenities and is designed well enough to even let a person monitor multiple sports including football if that ever was necessary or possible.  On the negative but fixable side, there are a few odd things about the shoe: The tickets were being sold between the two entrance doors on the southside making it necessary to extend the line outside and make it hard to go through the 2nd set of doors once you did buy your tickets as to open the door you have to displace everyone in the line.  The videoboard is ridiculously nice and probably bigger than any of the boards at the barn, but why aren't any replays shown?  The remotely controlled cameras look to be of pretty high quality and could get some nice shots, but it seems they're relegated to "fancam" duty.  ----why not make it more entertaining and call it the kisscam?? -------why put the ribbon board behind one of the baskets, essentially eliminating it's use during the game as it would be a distraction.  seems like it would fit well above either sideline, and you could put stats on it, instead of just announcing the timeouts?---also, who gets to sit in the balcony?? are those sold separately to people who don't show up to the games?  How about putting up some seats next to the pep band?


also, the tommies are really good and i would hate to draw them in the first round.

[gacbacker]

Good fight by the Gusties today, especially by Seth Anderson and Phil Wirtjes. As has been the case for the past 3-4 years, the Tommies are just so physically superior to the Gusties in both the height and strength catagories that it makes it hard for the Gusties to match up.

As AO mentioned, great contributions off the bench by Nance and Ervin as Healy and Hannon were virtually invisible in this game I thought. Nicolai drained a couple of big shots at crucial moments as he has tended to do against the Gusties.

Good luck to the Tommies and hopefully the Knights in the tournament.

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Congrats to UST on its 10th MIAC Playoff title and 1,500th all-time win. UST is the 4th program in all of D3 to reach 1500. Also, congrats to this year's seniors on their 100th career win... and hopes for 6 more!

nice atmosphere in the Shoe....GAC came out about as flat as possible but to their credit they did not give up. AWESOME game by Seth Anderson! super job by UST's bench depth (which was a key to the game), notably Nance and Ervin....both posting career games.

Hopefully, UST hosts a pod this coming weekend.. I like the idea of NWern, Luther and UWRF making it a foursome

[larry_u]

Carleton gets screwed...

Ao's squad @ St Thomas

UW-River Falls vs Illinois Wesleyan