MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[gustie12]

I agree mostly with what you have to say Drake. UST and STO are clearly the conference front-runners. I have seen STO play twice, but haven't seen SJU or UST yet.

The Gusties looked like a much better team this afternoon. The rise of Gary Cooper helps significantly since Isaac Tapp went down with an injury. Cooper was a huge spark for the Gusties today off the bench. He brings size, speed, quickness and athleticism with a solid shot. Jordan Dick was hitting on all cylinders from the field today. He has a gorgeous shot!

I am interested to see how the Gusties will play against SJU on Monday night. They beat them soundly in the first go-around, but both teams have seemed the change quite a bit since then.

[bball1122]

Stretch run time for the MIAC, with only a few short weeks left until the playoffs begin.  In my humble opinion, the 6 playoff spots are pretty much set:  UST, STO, GAC, AUG, BET, and SJU.   I don't see CAR or CORD winning enough games to crack those top six, though CAR wouldn't shock me.   I'll go in depth on my six projected playoff teams, with brief notes on the non-playoff teams:

While STO may be the story of the year in the MIAC, all roads still lead through UST.    Riedeman and Tengwall have really stepped up recently.   They lead the league in scoring (75.9 PPG), are a dangerous 3PT shooting team, take (419 attempts, 34 more than the next closest team) and make (323 (77%) makes, 52 more than the closest team) a ton of free throws, and still are very good defensively (2nd in the league in PPG D and 3rd in the league in forced TO's per game).   While they allow opponents to make 41% of their 3's (league worst), they have allowed 52 fewer three point attempts than the next closest team.  In short, they are very good.  If this is a "down" year for UST....good luck to the rest of the MIAC.

However, STO is good.  Really, really good.  Sterling Nielsen is probably the best PG  in the league (3.2 to 1 assist to TO ratio!), and Connor Gundersen is in the running for league MVP, with his 15.1 PPG and absurd for a non-post 65.1% FG%.   They are elite defensively, in the top ten in the country in scoring defense (60.1 PPG) and TO margin.   They are crazy deep, playing twelve (12!) guys at least 8.7 minutes per game.  And they take care of the ball offensively, averaging only 9.3 TO's per game, leaving them with a fantastic 1.73 to 1 assist to TO ratio AS A TEAM!  They are a legitimate threat to UST's throne.  To those who know more than I:  let's say STO finishes strong (say 20-5, 2nd in the league) but doesn't win the conference tournament.  Are they a candidate for an at large bid?  Thanks in advance.

While GAC certainly misses Isaac Tapp (5-2 in league with him, 4-4 without), they are still uber-efficient offensively, shooting 52.2% from the field (top 5 in the nation).  They are also quite deep, with many interchangeable parts.  However, they struggle in high scoring games – the Gusties are 2-6 in games where they allow their opponents to score 68 points or more, and the two wins were in the first two games of the season.  Without Tapp, this is still a playoff team, but their ceiling is limited.  Don't fret GAC fans:  this is a very young team, with only one senior.  Watch out for the Gusties next season.

AUG has been a very good offensive team this season, second in the league in both PPG (74.4) and shooting % (52.1%, which is elite).  Parker Hines return takes them to another level, as he is exactly the type of floor general this offense needs.  Dan Kornbaum is probably the front runner for league POY, averaging 19 PPG and 8 RPG.   The loss of Brett Rasmussen for the season hurts, but Joey Sonnenfeld has stepped up nicely of late.  There are two areas of concern:  defense and depth.   They are allowing opponents to score 70.9 PPG and shoot 47.8% from the field, both 3rd worst in the league.  Along with this, they are playing only 7 or 8 players significant minutes each game, which is an issue against the deeper teams in the league.  That being said,  I would take their top 4 over any other 4 in the league (Kornbaum, Seidlitz, Veach, Hines) and they will be a nightmare playoff matchup for any opponent given the # of sets they run offensively.    I think they are the 3rd best team in the league, with the ceiling to beat anyone.

STO may be the story of the season in the MIAC, but BET is the surprise of the season.   I certainly did not see this success coming, but Coach Novak has invigorated the Royals with his energy and preferred playing style – dribble drive O, funky zone D.  Brycen Wojta has been fantastic as a freshman – his skill set perfectly fits what they do offensively and defensively.  He thrives with the ball in his hands and is a fantastic finisher at rim.  If such an award were to exist, he would certainly be newcomer of the year in the league.  Luke Buttenhoff has done a nice job filling in for Kyle Zimmerman (out for season) as the second option.  They force a ton of TO's (15.2 per game 2nd in the league) and make a ton of 3's (123, 2nd most in the league).  Alas, their collective lack of height leads them to struggle rebounding the ball (-5.0 rebounding margin), and they've been very inconsistent offensively since the new year.  Their win over SJU yesterday was huge, as they finish with 4 out of 6 on the road and 4 out of 6 against other playoff teams.   A win over Carleton Monday would put some separation between themselves and the teams chasing them.

SJU may be the scariest one game matchup of any team in the league now that they are healthy.  They have a ton of guys that can score in bunches (Marx, Schmitt, Kuck, Butcher), and Maslonkowski is a great undersized big man for what they do.  They are solid offensively, 4th in the league in both PPG and FG%, but are below average defensively, allowing opponents to shoot 48. 1%, but when they do defend, they can beat anyone (see http://gojohnnies.com/boxscore.aspx?path=mbball&id=3980 ).  I personally think they are the 4th best team in the league, but they are going to have to prove that down the stretch:  they still play UST, STO, GAC, and AUGS, along with a road game at Carleton and a potentially huge game at home against CORD on 2/19.  Also of note – mid-season D2 transfer Jonah Eisenschenk has only played in one game.  Injured, or just not able to crack their rotation? 


As for my non-playoff teams, CAR is the one that is most likely to break through.  They have little depth, are limited offensively, but they have really defended extremely well recently and the return of Shane McSparron is huge.  Also, as noted previously, they are fouling at an amazingly low rate, lowest in the nation by a fairly wide margin.  They will have plenty of chances to prove themselves worthy of a playoff spot, as six of their final seven games are against teams ahead of them in the standings.

CORD is maddeningly inconsistent, with some nice wins (SJU, AUG) and some head scratching losses (MAC).  Their schedule the rest of the way is very difficult, with 4 projected playoff teams and Carleton still to go (though 3 of those games are at home).  If they make the playoffs, they will have earned it down the stretch.

HAM has hit the wall, culminating with a loss to MAC yesterday.  Their inconsistent guard play has finally caught up to them, though Dior Ford has been spectacular this season.  MAC and SMU just don't have the horses, though they both have some young players (Kilgour and Ismail for MAC, Swiggum and Ferron for SMU) having nice seasons.  HAM, MAC, and SMU combined have ONE senior that plays meaningful minutes. 

As for my award predictions, I think the POY race is down to Kornbaum and Gundersen,  while COY has to be Koz.  All for now – let me know your thoughts.

[Drake Palmer]

Nice detailed analysis BB12.   +k.  I agree with you on most all accounts.

Just to add a little more paranoia to the purple kingdom,    has anyone checked out the "vaunted" Tommie bench contribution lately?  For the past 3-4 years the bench was a significant contributor either on the offensive end of things or was coming up with key defensive stops.  Case in point, the Carleton-UST game this past Saturday.  Granted, Carleton always seem to play the Tommies tough at West gym & manages to turn the basketball game into a wrassling match, but the Tommie bench contributed exactly 7 points, 8 rebounds, & 3 steals.   Also where's Marcus Alipate been this year?  I really thought this would be the year he would elevate his game to another level? He's scoring a decent 10+ pts per game, but has not really dominated any games as former Tommie guards have done in the past - Tyler Nicolai, Joe Scott, Joe Buri etc.  As a result, Eric Tengwall, who is more of a pass first PG, has been forced to take on more of a scoring role, along with already heavy defensive responsibilities.  Thoughts?   

It seemed in years past, Coaches Tauer or Fritz could roll the dice, try out various combos until they finally found a second unit that could click.  This year not as much.  Obviously, UST is still a tough out, but the gap between the "haves & have nots" has definitely been reduced this year.   The Oles have stolen a chapter out of the Tommie playbook & are playing at a very efficient level, with a deep rotation, & significant contribution from their bench. 

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Well, the Tommies and Oles make it official...they are the first teams to mathematically lock up playoff berths. At the other end of the spectrum, Mac and SMU are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.  Feb 12 is looming larger and larger.

Tonight, UST had 15 guys score in a romp over Hamline, despite being lambasted earlier by DP for the bench's apparent scoring slump    Perfection isn't needed, DP, just Ws 

[carletonsid]

Huge win for my Knights last night, completing the season sweep of Bethel. Could prove huge in a few weeks since it gives them the tiebreak over the Royals. McSparron held Wojta to 5-of-19 shooting, and blocked three of his shots on straight-line drives where McSparron just stayed in front of him, rose up and blocked the shot after it left Wojta's hand. Not many guards that can do that in the MIAC.

I think schedule will play a large role in determining those last 2-3 playoff spots. Carleton has already played UST and St. Olaf twice, while SJU and Bethel have to face both the Oles and Tommies over its final 5-6 games. Here's the breakdown:

SJU (8-6): 3 home/3 road, 3 vs. top 4/2 vs. bottom 4
vs Augsburg
vs. St. Olaf
at Macalester
at Carleton
vs. Concordia
at St. Thomas

Bethel (8-7): 2 home/3 road, 4 vs. top 4/1 vs. bottom 4
at St. Thomas
at Hamline
vs. Gustavus
at Augsburg
vs. St. Olaf

Carleton (6-8): 3 home/3 road, 2 vs. top 4/3 vs. bottom 4
at St. Mary's
vs. Gustavus
at Concordia
vs. St. John's
at Augsburg
vs. Macalester


Analysis:
•Not hard to see Bethel finishing at 9-11--that's a tough finishing stretch. Could they steal one at home against Gustavus or St. Olaf (realizing that St. Olaf could be playing for a top-two seed and that it has at-large NCAA Tournament aspirations)? No gimmee at Hamline Saturday, either.

•Seems like SJU, at worst, gets to 10 wins. Obviously big match-up at Carleton on Feb. 15--would give them sweep of Knights and likely push it to 11 wins and a certain spot. Also, if it could wins one of next two games at home (Augsburg or St. Olaf) that gives them a leg up as well, IMO. Of course, I haven't been able to figure this team out all year. Get dumptrucked on Saturday at Bethel, then turn around and win on the road for the first time in MIAC play at Gustavus last night? Still, seem to be trending upwards, having won 5 of last 6, so maybe that Bethel loss is an outlier (outscored by 20 in the second half?). 

•Carleton has the most favorable schedule-3 games left vs. the bottom 4, although two are on the road (at SMU and at Concordia). Both are likely must wins, as is the home game to finish with Mac. That gets the Knights to 9 wins. If they could steal 1-2 among GAC, at Augsburg or SJU, that could push them to 10-12. Realistically, I think they get 9 wins, and maybe 10, and hope things break their way.

[Retired Old Rat]

St. John's continues to mystify.  If they can get everyone healthy and Marx breaks out of his slump, they should be tough to beat.  I guess we'll see.

[Drake Palmer]

Well, the Tommies and Oles make it official...they are the first teams to mathematically lock up playoff berths. At the other end of the spectrum, Mac and SMU are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.  Feb 12 is looming larger and larger.

Tonight, UST had 15 guys score in a romp over Hamline, despite being lambasted earlier by DP for the bench's apparent scoring slump    Perfection isn't needed, DP, just Ws 

Mose – I wouldn't uncross my fingers quite yet over the Tommies' bench contribution & Marcus Alipate.  Let's see UST's bench bring it in a "money game" and not over a fading 2nd division team.  The Hamline Pipers' season is now on life support, & Coach Hayes is trying to guide the team safely to shore and begin building for next season. 

***
I watched a portion of the Johnnies & Gusties game last night, and the Gusties had no answer for Mitchell Kuck.  He ended up with 21 pts on 9-14 FGA on tough, athletic drives to the basket and a nice outside jumper.   BB1122 is also right about the Gusties.  If they can find another outside shooter to replace Jordan Dick, and an athletic defender who can defend on the wing, they'll be right near the top of things next year.  Last night the Gustie defense was a half-step slow defending the Jays dribble drive forays around the net.

St. John's continues to mystify.  If they can get everyone healthy and Marx breaks out of his slump, they should be tough to beat.  I guess we'll see.

ROR - Although Bethel is a smaller team than Gustavus, they're quicker, & I'm sure their zone defense confounded the Jays last Saturday.  The Jays' lack of patience played into the Royals hands which forced 18 SJU TOs, & 12 steals by the Royals.  In the upcoming games against STO & UST, the Jays will know what to expect & have a better mental makeup to play against that style: Tough, hardnosed man to man defense with the occasional full court press thrown in for good measure.  The Johnnies are now at full strength and have the talent to compete.  If SJU beats Augsburg on Wednesday, the Johnnie Ole clash on Saturday could potentially rival next week's Ole - UST game. Lets see what Augsburg response to all of this Johnny talk will be on Wednesday night. 

[OldAuggie]

Well, the Tommies and Oles make it official...they are the first teams to mathematically lock up playoff berths. At the other end of the spectrum, Mac and SMU are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.  Feb 12 is looming larger and larger.

Tonight, UST had 15 guys score in a romp over Hamline, despite being lambasted earlier by DP for the bench's apparent scoring slump    Perfection isn't needed, DP, just Ws 

Mose – I wouldn't uncross my fingers quite yet over the Tommies' bench contribution & Marcus Alipate.  Let's see UST's bench bring it in a "money game" and not over a fading 2nd division team.  The Hamline Pipers' season is now on life support, & Coach Hayes is trying to guide the team safely to shore and begin building for next season. 

***
I watched a portion of the Johnnies & Gusties game last night, and the Gusties had no answer for Mitchell Kuck.  He ended up with 21 pts on 9-14 FGA on tough, athletic drives to the basket and a nice outside jumper.   BB1122 is also right about the Gusties.  If they can find another outside shooter to replace Jordan Dick, and an athletic defender who can defend on the wing, they'll be right near the top of things next year.  Last night the Gustie defense was a half-step slow defending the Jays dribble drive forays around the net.

St. John's continues to mystify.  If they can get everyone healthy and Marx breaks out of his slump, they should be tough to beat.  I guess we'll see.

ROR - Although Bethel is a smaller team than Gustavus, they're quicker, & I'm sure their zone defense confounded the Jays last Saturday.  The Jays' lack of patience played into the Royals hands which forced 18 SJU TOs, & 12 steals by the Royals.  In the upcoming games against STO & UST, the Jays will know what to expect & have a better mental makeup to play against that style: Tough, hardnosed man to man defense with the occasional full court press thrown in for good measure.  The Johnnies are now at full strength and have the talent to compete.  If SJU beats Augsburg on Wednesday, the Johnnie Ole clash on Saturday could potentially rival next week's Ole - UST game. Lets see what Augsburg response to all of this Johnny talk will be on Wednesday night. 

Looking forward to watching this game on line. Does SJU broadcast BB games online?

[Retired Old Rat]

Auggie, I thought you were  rubbing it in.   

To my great surprise, it appears their may be a live stream of that game.  On the SJU schedule under details there is a link to "watch."  When you click that it takes you to a page that says "SJU Basketball - Live Stream."  I guess I'll find out tomorrow night.

[OldAuggie]

Auggie, I thought you were  rubbing it in.   

To my great surprise, it appears their may be a live stream of that game.  On the SJU schedule under details there is a link to "watch."  When you click that it takes you to a page that says "SJU Basketball - Live Stream."  I guess I'll find out tomorrow night.

ROR
Well you were correct! Thanks for the help, had to take a shot on that one!

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Auggie, I thought you were  rubbing it in.   

To my great surprise, it appears their may be a live stream of that game.  On the SJU schedule under details there is a link to "watch."  When you click that it takes you to a page that says "SJU Basketball - Live Stream."  I guess I'll find out tomorrow night.

I thought so too.  The fact that you 2 arent driving up and paying admission gives credence to the belief that a webcast would detract from SJU's football gate receipts    But given the parking situation and the fact that the corn field parking lot is now a snow field, maybe they don't mind a smaller gate at non-football events?

*******
No one has thier "fingers crossed", Grandma Palmer. You seem to expect perfection of the Tommies.... me, i just settle for Ws and (hopefully) another trip to Salem   As I said to you in Sept...I expect this team to go 18-2 or 17-3. Either of those records will win the conference again.

**********
After looking over CSid's analyis and schedule (having it all there was handy)... I figure the final order will be
1 UST
2 St O
3 Aug
4 Gac
5 Car  (by virtue of tie-breaker)
5 SJU
5 Beth (out of playoffs by tie-breakers)

the annual q-final SJU @ Aug should be interesting, with the winner heading to Olaf...will Daddy Burns make a cameo?  Car @ GAC for the right to got to the Shoe II could be intriguing as well.

[Kilroy]

Another BIG recruiting pickup for SJU with Garrett Goetz from Rosemount. He's a 6-foot PG who is very fluid with the ball in his hands. Great control and a sharp shot. NHR had him rated #36 in the class of 2014. The Johnnies keep rolling, recruiting-wise. They are collecting scary depth.

More:
Brett Peterson of RTR is a 6-4 PG who likes SMU
Forward Collin Olmscheid (younger bro of Cobber Olmscheid) of Buffalo is down to Hamline and Augsburg
Stud forward Jacob Schaefer of Roch Lourdes is still considering MIACs like Olaf, Carleton, Augsburg. High priority on pre-med degree.

[jimhoops1234]

Kilroy - That would be Collin Olmscheid. Darrin graduated a couple years ago from Concordia.

[Retired Old Rat]

Big win for the Johnnies in C'ville last night.  Couldn't watch the webcast as it required flash, I was trying to watch on my iPad.   

Kornbaum was a scoring machine, no one could stop him.  Even with Johnnies playing hack a shaq on him.

Waiting patiently for Drake's insightful analysis.  Hopefully you were able to catch the webcast.

[GoldandBlueBU]

Big win for the Johnnies in C'ville last night.  Couldn't watch the webcast as it required flash, I was trying to watch on my iPad.   

Kornbaum was a scoring machine, no one could stop him.  Even with Johnnies playing hack a shaq on him.

Waiting patiently for Drake's insightful analysis.  Hopefully you were able to catch the webcast.

A big win indeed for SJU.  Kornbaum is an impressive player....very athletic, and can finish inside.

BU hung in there with UST in the first half last night, going into the intermission tied, but gave up an 8-0 run to start the 2nd, and that was all she wrote.  Unfortunately, they don't seem to have the personell to mount comebacks.

Hard to believe the end to another MIAC regular season is just around the corner.