MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[SagatagSam]

Also, the MIAC season is officially half over as everyone in the conference has played exactly ten games. Playoff chances will start to tighten up in a big way over the next two weeks. We should also see either Bethel, Augsburg, or both mathematically eliminated from the regular season championship by the middle of next week.

[txg]

Monday was the start of a brutal stretch for GAC.  Eight games, seven on the road.  Might be tough to hold onto that playoff spot.

[SagatagSam]

Monday was the start of a brutal stretch for GAC.  Eight games, seven on the road.  Might be tough to hold onto that playoff spot.

Yeah, there is a huge log jam at the middle of the standings and there isn't much room for error to hang onto that last playoff spot. There will be some wiggle room because of everyone beating up on each other, but GAC can't go 3-5 in this stretch and still expect to be right there come the end of the month.

[Greek Tragedy]

Monday was the start of a brutal stretch for GAC.  Eight games, seven on the road.  Might be tough to hold onto that playoff spot.

Seems like some strange scheduling.

[SagatagSam]

Monday was the start of a brutal stretch for GAC.  Eight games, seven on the road.  Might be tough to hold onto that playoff spot.

Seems like some strange scheduling.

It's goofy how almost all of GAC's conference road games got clustered together in an eight game stretch.

1/18 at St. Olaf College (7)
1/21   at Carleton College (1)
1/25   Bethel University (T-10)
1/28   at Augsburg University (T-10)
1/30 at The College of St. Scholastica (9)
2/1   at Saint John's University (2)
2/4   at Macalester College (T-3)

While it's tough to go on the road that much, there is a three game stretch in the middle where GAC plays the Bethel, Augsburg, and St. Scholastica, who hold the bottom three spots in the conference.

Definitely a tough way to start and a tough way to finish.

[bball1122]

Most years, 10 conference wins gets you into the playoffs (I think only twice in the past 10 years has it not).  I don't think 10 wins guarantees a playoff spot this year.

[SagatagSam]

Most years, 10 conference wins gets you into the playoffs (I think only twice in the past 10 years has it not).  I don't think 10 wins guarantees a playoff spot this year.

My guess is that the most probable outcome is that GAC will either go 4-3 or 5-2 over this seven game stretch. That would put them at either 10 or 11 conference wins as they go into their final three conference games: vs. Concordia, vs. Hamline, and at St. Mary's. And, I doubt they would go 0-3 in the final three conference games.

I think they make the playoff barring a serious collapse.

[txg]

Massey expected wins:

St. John's: 14.94
Carleton:  14.22
St. Mary's:  11.53
St. Olaf:  11.27
Mac:  10.98
GAC:  10.57
Hamline:  10.19
Concordia:  7.78
Augsburg:  6.81
Bethel:  6.36
CSS:  5.92

[SagatagSam]

Most years, 10 conference wins gets you into the playoffs (I think only twice in the past 10 years has it not).  I don't think 10 wins guarantees a playoff spot this year.

My guess is that the most probable outcome is that GAC will either go 4-3 or 5-2 over this seven game stretch. That would put them at either 10 or 11 conference wins as they go into their final three conference games: vs. Concordia, vs. Hamline, and at St. Mary's. And, I doubt they would go 0-3 in the final three conference games.

I think they make the playoff barring a serious collapse.

Woof. That loss at St. Olaf is not a good way to head into to the West Gym at Carleton.

[SagatagSam]

Who knows what to make of St. Olaf these days--win at Carleton on Wednesday, win at Augsburg on Saturday, lose at St. Scholastica on Monday, beat GAC at home on Wednesday.

If I were a betting man, I'd keep my money the hell away from whatever game St. Olaf is playing in. Your bets are either going to be spectacularly right or spectacularly wrong. I don't think I've seen many results from St. Olaf this year and said, "yeah, that's about what I expected from that game."

[txg]

Re St. Olaf, if you expect wins at home and losses on the road, that's a very good place to start.

[SagatagSam]

So, right now there is a 4-way tie for fourth place, which means if the playoffs were to start today, one of those teams would be out. The way I run the head-to-heads right now (and I could be wrong on this) is that SMU would be the odd team out as of today as both St. Olaf and GAC have the tiebreaker over them.

This situation will change very quickly as Hamline has a matchup with St. Olaf on Saturday. A Hamline win makes St. Olaf the odd team out amongst these four should they all become tied again, and an Ole win splits the season series and then we would have to go to the next tiebreaker.

[txg]

This thing is getting even tighter.  The Knights and Johnnies both get upset.

[SagatagSam]

This thing is getting even tighter.  The Knights and Johnnies both get upset.

Wow!

I hadn't looked at scores until just now, and both of those losses are surprising. Gustavus is a quality team and should make the playoff, but the home loss is surprising still.

However, I don't know what to make of the Johnnies' inability to take care of the basketball (22 turnovers) against Augsburg. I didn't get to watch any of the game to see if Augsburg came out with some kind of Kamikaze defense that was so reckless that it produced enough chaos to cause turnovers (I doubt it).

[SagatagSam]

We have another four way tie for third (SMU, STO, MAC, and GAC). Here's how the tiebreakers currently shake out:

3. St. Olaf (2-0 combined record vs. SJU and CAR)
4. Gustavus (1-2 combined record vs. SJU and CAR)
5. Macalester (0-2 combined record vs. SJU and CAR)
6. St. Mary's (No head-to-head tiebreaker wins)

St. Mary's is stuck behind the eight ball with the head-to-head tiebreakers vs. GAC, MAC, and STO because they are 2-0 vs. SJU and CAR. If they can find a way to split the rest of their series with STO and GAC, they'll be sitting much better in the tiebreaker scenarios.