MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Drake Palmer]

Ut oh..here comes G-man & G-man jr all over again.  Reminds me of watching C-Span & listening to a small congressional hearing committee debating whether or not the Gusties had their sea legs when they went to Hawaii, & what were the economic repercussions in Le Sueur, Dodge Center & Henderson. Drone, snore, choke, sputter, cough.    

[AO]

Since then, GAC has gone 1-2 and Augsburg has gone 2-1, with the Auggies claiming a win over the Gusties, so the Auggies now have higher stock than the Gusties -- but I doubt that either will be ranked this week by the West Region committee. The two WIAC powers are stumbling at the moment, but not enough to dive below any MIAC teams besides St. Thomas. Chapman and Central keep winning, so they're going to move ahead of GAC and stay ahead of Augsburg or any other MIAC team that might ascend to the bottom of the nine-team West Region ranking this week. Whitworth and St. Thomas will stay ahead of any MIAC also-rans, of course, and I would look for CMS and Oxy to move ahead of any of them as well.

In short, the door is not open for St. John's, it's open so slightly for Hamline and GAC that you can't even see any light coming through, and it's barely open a crack for Augsburg.

FEB 10.  WEST REGION Rankings
West Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Wisconsin-Whitewater 17-4 17-4
2. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 17-3 18-3
3. St. Thomas (Minnesota) 16-2 19-2
4. Whitworth 17-2 19-2
5. Central (Iowa) 16-2 18-4
6. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 12-3 16-4
7. Chapman 16-1 20-2
8. Hamline 15-7 15-7
9. Augsburg 14-6 15-6

The pipers are on the board, Gustavus and St. John's can't be far behind, and if the pipers were to win out in the regular season, they'd have beaten St. Thomas; greatly increasing their chances.  Furthermore, the pipers would be on the table right after the wiac pool c is taken as the other teams in the west are the heavy favorites to get automatic bids.

[piperinsider]

Since then, GAC has gone 1-2 and Augsburg has gone 2-1, with the Auggies claiming a win over the Gusties, so the Auggies now have higher stock than the Gusties -- but I doubt that either will be ranked this week by the West Region committee. The two WIAC powers are stumbling at the moment, but not enough to dive below any MIAC teams besides St. Thomas. Chapman and Central keep winning, so they're going to move ahead of GAC and stay ahead of Augsburg or any other MIAC team that might ascend to the bottom of the nine-team West Region ranking this week. Whitworth and St. Thomas will stay ahead of any MIAC also-rans, of course, and I would look for CMS and Oxy to move ahead of any of them as well.

In short, the door is not open for St. John's, it's open so slightly for Hamline and GAC that you can't even see any light coming through, and it's barely open a crack for Augsburg.

FEB 10.  WEST REGION Rankings
West Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Wisconsin-Whitewater 17-4 17-4
2. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 17-3 18-3
3. St. Thomas (Minnesota) 16-2 19-2
4. Whitworth 17-2 19-2
5. Central (Iowa) 16-2 18-4
6. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 12-3 16-4
7. Chapman 16-1 20-2
8. Hamline 15-7 15-7
9. Augsburg 14-6 15-6

The pipers are on the board, Gustavus and St. John's can't be far behind, and if the pipers were to win out in the regular season, they'd have beaten St. Thomas; greatly increasing they're chances.  Furthermore, the pipers would be on the table right after the wiac pool c is taken as the other teams in the west are the heavy favorites to get automatic bids.

Again, it's a big if. The Vipers have games against SJU and UST and a scary road trip to SMU tonight. Anyone with any knowledge, does the committee look at things like how teams are playing down the stretch like the NCAA D1 committee does?

If you look at Hamline's record, they were 3-4 to start the season with bad losses to Elmhurst, C-Moor and Olaf to go along with a home loss at Auggie Tech.

Since then, they are 12-3 with losses to UST, GAC and CAR on the road. Included in the wins were Wheaton, SJU, Cal Luth and wins over GAC and SJU.

Obviously the Pipers Pool C bid chances are none with any more losses before the finals, but finishing the season on a 16-4/17-4 (depends on seeding) run would look pretty attractive.

[Gacman]

Ut oh..here comes G-man & G-man jr all over again.  Reminds me of watching C-Span & listening to a small congressional hearing committee debating whether or not the Gusties had their sea legs when they went to Hawaii, & what were the economic repercussions in Le Sueur, Dodge Center & Henderson. Drone, snore, choke, sputter, cough.   

Lol.......DP some people never learn. I being one of them. I can admit when I'm wrong just not right away.  The sealegs was obviously a stretch, and pointless comment. I just didn't want to be lectured on a comment that wasn't meant to elicit a response from anyone at the time. So my motto apparently is, if there is no way out, just dig deeper and maybe you'll come out on the other side.

I don't think this is a comparable situation. I'm interested to know if you think 5 is a good number? When I played I entered each season thinking if we end the season with 5 losses or less we're in. Obviously, that isn't set in stone as I pointed out in with several examples but I would think you are leaving less to chance that way.

Oh........and Sensei the example of the three team scenario of having four losses was meant as conference losses not region losses. If you are playing good nonconference teams a  scenario like that would allow a loss or two in nonconference play.

[sumander]

In the last 10 seasons the MIAC has never had more than 2 teams end the season with 4 or fewer losses. The last 3 years (including this year) they will end the season having only one team with 4 or fewer losses!

[Drake Palmer]

I don't think this is a comparable situation. I'm interested to know if you think 5 is a good number? When I played I entered each season thinking if we end the season with 5 losses or less we're in. Obviously, that isn't set in stone as I pointed out in with several examples but I would think you are leaving less to chance that way.

Oh........and Sensei the example of the three team scenario of having four losses was meant as conference losses not region losses. If you are playing good nonconference teams a  scenario like that would allow a loss or two in nonconference play.

Good humor...

Five conference losses or less are usually good for the league playoff, but beyond that you have to look at a team's entire in region body of work for the Big Dance.  This is why the regional rankings are so important and the 5 criteria that Greg keeps referencing.

Sum posted the following a few weeks ago which more or less outlines how the process works.  However, there's still that air of mystery that takes place on the final weekend when the final regional rankings are not released to the public, & the actual selections are announced.

Your mission Mr G. should you choose to accept this assignment is to study & analyze the following information, and be able to discuss this treatise at length with Hoops Sensei, Sensei-in-training or poseurs (AO).  I prefer to defer to the experts in this situation & use their knowledge to supplement my street savvy.  

VOJ, You are on the right path. The NCAA Handbook lays out the primary and secondary criteria for Pool B & Pool C bids. Specifically the primary criteria is:

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA
championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
[See Appendix B for explanation of OWP and OOWP calculations.]
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.
Note:
• Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at any time of the rankings/
selection process.
• Conference postseason contests are included.
• Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth
years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional and reclassifying members
shall remain ineligible for rankings and selections.
Weighted Scale. For a minimum of two championship seasons (2009-10 and 2010-
11), a weighted scale will apply. Once the OWP and OOWP are calculated, they are
to be combined on a weighted scalre (e.g., 2/3 weight for OWP and 1/3 weight for
OOWP) and this combined number becomes the strength of schedule.

The secondary criteria is:

If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the
secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated (not
listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region
Division III and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents from
other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
• Out-of-region head-to-head competition.
• Overall Division III win-loss percentage.
• Results versus common non Division III opponents.
• Results versus all Division III ranked teams.
• Overall win-loss percentage.
• Results versus all common opponents.
• Overall DIII strength of schedule.
• Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's win-loss percentage during 25
percent of the season is applicable, (i.e., end-of-seasn performance), it may adopt such
criteria with approval from the championships committee.

[Buddo]

VOJ- easy big fella, easy.  There you go. "And how in the world was I passing judgment?? Helicopter parents yes, specifically Johnnies  - no.  GAWD!!    

SJU has the most annoying parents in the conference.

[piperinsider]

You can forget about the Pool C bid talk with Hamline....down 45-27 with 3:03 left in the first half at SMU. 45!!!! Play some freaking defense!

[ChairmanYao]

PI beat me too it. I guess Hipp is quite sick. However, sick or not this is certainly not a game Hamline should lose.

[piperinsider]

St. Olaf   77   Gustavus   69 (OT)
Saint Mary's   98   Hamline   77
Bethel   55   St. Thomas   78
Augsburg   78   Saint John's   63
Macalester   50   Concordia   76

Bad losses for HAM and GAC - SJU is fading fast.

UST, AUG, HAM and GAC are in the playoffs.

The Pipers could be in trouble if they finish fifth. They are a totally different team at home. Only SJU and UST left.

[Gregory Sager]

The only way the MIAC is ever going to get more than one or even two teams  in the national tourney in the future is if there is a a top heavy year. Saying that the top three teams have four conference losses or less. Other than that scenario, it will always be two or one bid league looking ahead. Because realistically, if a MIAC team suffers more than 5 region game losses it has no shot, short of winning the conference tourney, to make it to the national one. Which is why those two losses especially for GAC stand out because with four left they would have 4 region losses instead of 6. They would be sitting pretty good as I see it.

You make it sound as though there's some sort of congenital bias against the MIAC, some sort of defect that will keep the selection committee from ever taking it seriously for Pool C berths. And that's just not the case. The committee is mandated to hew closely to the five primary criteria, which are objective and do not allow for either pro- or anti-league perceptions.

As I said, seven in-region losses (which, of course, include any losses incurred in a postseason conference tournament) seems to be the tipping point, as it's what pushes most in-region winning percentages into the low .700s (or even lower if you're a team that filled some dates with non-regional competition).

Again, the in-region winning percentage criterion is only one of five primary criteria that the committee will use. But it's a pretty reliable starting point when you want to talk about who will get to the table in Selection Sunday's Pool C apportionment process and who won't.

Not at all, I'm just making the same point as you. If you take Augsburg and GAC out of the latest region rankings, almost all of the teams have 4 or less losses. I'm just pointing out that if you can have 5 or less region losses you have a very good chance of getting that pool C bid. A lot of those gustie teams in the earlier part of this decade that got pool C bid's had 5 losses. I didn't say because people are against the MIAC that with 6 losses they don't have a chance but when you get to that many region losses especially in a tough region, you start having to count on the fewest amount of upsets happening in conference tourney's to improve your chances. If you can end the season with 5 or less I would feel fairly confident where I stand regardless of upsets.

I also said that we were on track for three teams with UST, GAC, and AUG being the candidates before the recent struggles of the latter two teams. If I'm entertaining the possibility of it being a three team bid even this year precludes me from assuming there is a bias against the MIAC. Now I know that Buena Vista isn't from the MIAC but they have been a very good program in the 2000's and they lost in their conference tourney last year giving them a 23-3 record, and even they didn't make it as a pool C bid. So to say 5 losses is a noteworthy plateau or goal isn't too off and doesn't imply a bias in any way shape or form. I would say that for anyteam from any conference in the West Region. That 5 loss plateau would give teams over a .750 winning percentage which would be very favorable for a pool C bid.

You even pointed out that if GAC or AUG were to run the table and lose somewhere in the conference tourney, they still would be long shots and that's with 6 region losses one short of the 5 I said. Are you sure you aren't saying there is "some sort of congenital against the miac" yourself? 

The word "ever" in the first sentence of your first post is what red-flagged it for me. Every season is different; every season has its own set of variables as February rolls along.

All I did in pointing out that GAC and Augsburg were up against it was to cite precedent concerning the importance of in-region winning percentage. It had nothing to do with congenital anything; again, it's simply a matter of looking at this season's discrete set of variables.

[Gregory Sager]

FEB 10.  WEST REGION Rankings
West Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Wisconsin-Whitewater 17-4 17-4
2. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 17-3 18-3
3. St. Thomas (Minnesota) 16-2 19-2
4. Whitworth 17-2 19-2
5. Central (Iowa) 16-2 18-4
6. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 12-3 16-4
7. Chapman 16-1 20-2
8. Hamline 15-7 15-7
9. Augsburg 14-6 15-6

The pipers are on the board, Gustavus and St. John's can't be far behind, and if the pipers were to win out in the regular season, they'd have beaten St. Thomas; greatly increasing their chances.  Furthermore, the pipers would be on the table right after the wiac pool c is taken as the other teams in the west are the heavy favorites to get automatic bids.

Given KnightSlappy's data, I admit to being pretty surprised that Augsburg somehow stayed ahead of Oxy and clung to the ninth and last spot. As to your last sentence, you should never ever ever assume that the regular-season champs are just gonna waltz through their respective conference tourneys and garner those Pool A berths.

I don't think this is a comparable situation. I'm interested to know if you think 5 is a good number? When I played I entered each season thinking if we end the season with 5 losses or less we're in. Obviously, that isn't set in stone as I pointed out in with several examples but I would think you are leaving less to chance that way.

Oh........and Sensei the example of the three team scenario of having four losses was meant as conference losses not region losses. If you are playing good nonconference teams a  scenario like that would allow a loss or two in nonconference play.

Five's an irrelevant number, and you should stop talking about conference losses and start talking about in-region losses when you're discussing Pool C. Right now you're talking about India pale ales at a wine-tasting party. Listen to Drake, who speaks great truth in this post:

Five conference losses or less are usually good for the league playoff, but beyond that you have to look at a team's entire in region body of work for the Big Dance.  This is why the regional rankings are so important and the 5 criteria that Greg keeps referencing.

Egg. Zackly.

[Buddo]

Saint Mary's   98   Hamline   77

Wow... Brown with 33 to lead HU, Aguirre with 14
Holland with 22, Palmer with 19 (and 12 reb) and bench player Seifert with 17. Five Cards in double figures. They killed from the FT line going 32-35.

SMU can really click if they have five guys contributing.

[VOJ]

VOJ- easy big fella, easy.  There you go. "And how in the world was I passing judgment?? Helicopter parents yes, specifically Johnnies  - no.  GAWD!!   

SJU has the most annoying parents in the conference.

Buddo just when I was starting to like you...what is so annoying?  The fact that they show up to most road games and support their sons?  If you are talking about comments from the cheap seats, then you might as well lump every parent in the MIAC into your argument..because I have been in every gym and at one time or another in the past 11 seasons I have heard it from every schools parents/supporters.

Auggies were firing on all cylinders tonight, Johnnies got down by 14 at one point in the first half, cut it to 8 at the break, got within one in the second half and could not get over the hill to get some momentum on their side.  Gave up a few too many offensive rebounds and 2nd shots. 

Tommies coming to Sexton on Saturday...big reunion day for Johnnies hoopsters who played during the 80's...I know there will be a few familiar faces in the crowd, maybe some of your classmates Drake    just kidding...

Need to send a special shot out to Tom Witschen who does Augsburg webcasting...he has been doing the Auggies for a long time and does very good work.  In our talk about play by play guys in the MIAC awhile ago he was inadvertently left out. 

St. Olaf   77   Gustavus   69 (OT)
Saint Mary's   98   Hamline   77
Bethel   55   St. Thomas   78
Augsburg   78   Saint John's   63
Macalester   50   Concordia   76

Bad losses for HAM and GAC - SJU is fading fast.   GAC and SJU are struggling with the playoffs looming...

UST, AUG, HAM and GAC are in the playoffs.

The Pipers could be in trouble if they finish fifth. They are a totally different team at home. Only SJU and UST left.

Fixed that for you no charge...alot of things can happen in the next 10 days

[Willy Wonka]

Didn't see any games tonight, but I'll point out some box score tidbits now since I just downed a 40 ouncer of Dewski and sleep is a few hours away...

• Bobby Fong. Really, Gusties? He went off for 34-11 tonight in a performance that probably locks up his all-conference spot and keeps the Oles in contention for a playoff berth. Even though it came in a loss, I like to see Wirtjes shooting more — he's the most complete offensive player on the team.

• On a per-minute basis, SMU's Gary Seifert literally matched Fong's outburst. 17 and 5 (with FOUR fouls) in 15 minutes is seriously impressive. I wish the real Hamline defense would stand up so the Pipers would quit teasing us.

• MVP frontrunner Aaron Burtzel, who has got to be sliding with his team sinking to fifth in the league, has 5 of his team's 18 turnovers as the Doggies score 27 points-off-turnovers to grab an important win. Big games for Cassens, Olson and Andy G-G. Who were the other 3 people who voted for Augsburg to steal the #2 seed?

• Bethel's Daniel Baah pulled the ol' disappearing act against the vaunted Tommie defense. 3 points, 3 fouls, 3 turnovers. Not even starting 6 guys can cover for a performance like that.

• Joe Scott finished 5-10 from the floor in what might be his first above-average shooting night in weeks. The Tommie web site appears to be a little backed up (no box scores loaded since Jan. 20) and I'm not bored enough to go digging THAT deep for intel. For the sake of the rest of the league, let's hope he doesn't get hot now or we might as well not even play the postseason tourney...

• Cobbers crush Mac despite a lackluster 8-14 assist-to-turnover ratio. Seems like the assist total should be higher in a 26-point win. Fraase goes for 14-10.