MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Drake Palmer]

 PI -Good start on some playoff analysis.

By the way, I was at the CORD-Hamline game last Saturday & I certainly didn't get the sense that the Pipes were coasting (how could you playing for Coach Whitmore??   ), but obviously the Cobbs had a lot more incentive to win the game.

Concordia-Hamline

The Cobbs zone defense & how the Pipes choose to attack the zone, will pose a challenge for the Pipes.  With 6-6 John Fraase, 6-6 Darren Olmscheid, & 6-4 Ebo Nana Kweson collapsing on Carl Hipp in the paint, it created all kinds of problems for him.  Plus, the Cobbs had "Man Mountain" Jason Huus to come in off the bench & score a few points, grab some boards, foul, & block out some sunlight in the lane. All 6-10 260lbs worth.   The Cobbs did a great job of denying Hipp and when he did get the ball, scoring through a double team, & the occasion triple team was very tough to do.  And as it's been previously documented, Hipp is very reluctant to pass the ball out of the post & re-post.  

Cobbs also did a good job of denying dribble penetration by Mike Campbell, but did allow munchkin PG, Levi Wenrich to snake through the lane for a game, & probably season high, 13 points.  However, the Pipes have improved their outside shooting from the 3 pt. line.  Back in mid-January they were at 31.8%, to a respectable middle of the pack 35.4% 3 pt shooting.  I'm guessing Coach LA will continue to roll the dice and see which outside shooter will come up big for the Pipes. Saturday  was not so hot, but Brandon Rieg, Sam Gullickson, Christian Taber, & Tyler Pannell are the designated marksmen.  Lately, it's been Rieg & Gullickson hitting from the outside, along with Mike Campbell shooting & even making the occasional trey. By the way, Jordan Schmidt is back on the bench in street clothes. He  must have re-injured his calf in the Olaf game.

For the Cobbs, if John Fraase & Darren Olmscheid can continue shooting & rebounding like they have, the Pipers will have reason to be concerned.  A traditional big man like UST's Tommy Hannon who mostly scores on power and speed moves in the post, Hipp eats up. But if you can step outside, which occasionally Hannon has done, or add the left handed hook shot like the Oles' Stu Neville, & or step out & hit the 3; or hit the turnaround  jumper which Fraase was showing on Saturday the opposing post players can & will have success against Hipp.  I'm wondering if Fraase went down to Northfield & got a quick private lesson from Carleton's Seth Jonker – the true master of the turnaround jumper!

The Cobbs have got their own version of a slasher in 6-4 Ebo Nana-Kweson.  For some of you older posters, Kweson reminds me a bit of the Gophers small forward from the glory days in the 90s, Willy Burton.  Obviously Burrton is a much better player, but they both remind me of long legged colts gliding around the court. Kweson will be an x-factor in the game along with how the Cobbs guards Aaron Lindahl, muchkin II – johnathan Molina, Karl Olson etc. handle the Pipes pressure. Both teams are capable of playing disciplined basketball, & or raining treys like there no coaches watching.  Should be a barnburner!

Gustavus @ St. Olaf:

If the Gusties try to turn this into a track meet, odds are they'll lose.  These are not the same plodding, methodical; deliberate Oles I recall seeing for most of the last decade.  They've got excellent shooters & excellent team speed & leapers.  If you make them play every possession and grind out some points, they've got to go their bench.  As much as I've hyped FY Connor Gunderson, (and rightfully so) the kid is a one dimensional scoring machine.  At this stage in his career he's not a great defender.  This is why see Coach Koz come with two other FY – Nathan Kuck, & Michael Jensen & others.   Stu Neville is starting to live up to the promise he showed as a FY, waterbug PG Alfred Jaryan keeps developing, & finally the talented Bobby Fong has put together an injury free season & showing the league what all the hype was about when he came into the 3 years ago.  When healthy, the kid is a stud.

The Gusties seem to be a team going in the other direction. Besides a recovering team emotional psyche, it seems they're starting to get the old injury bug. James Hill is out for the season, I've heard Paul Blacklock was sick or injured, & whatever happened to Phil Wirtjes?  After a promising JR season, I really thought he would take off this season.  He's had a good, but somewhat inconsistent season.  And from what I've seen, Dan Schmidtknecht is still an excellent PG, but you can't get credit for assists if your teammates aren't scoring.  The one player who has really taken off in the 2nd half of the season has been JR Seth Anderson. He's been putting up some huge numbers in the last 3-4 games. 26 points against SMU, 14 pts vs. the Dawgs, 30 pts vs. SJU, & 28 pts vs. UST.

This might be the game of the night.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Final Regional Rankings are out before Selection Sunday: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/category/ncaa-stuff/regional-rankings/

[TheSuperfan]

I begin to stir the pot with MVP discussions providing a purely data based approach to start off.

The following chart provides the base stats for the 2 best players on each team in players IMHO, plus Burtzel as an add in. A little twist to bring in pure efficiency, the numbers reported are per minute of play time in conference only. The players are ranked in descending order of points per minute. I tried to make the margin look good...at least it looked alright on my computer. 

Player                   Team   Pts     Rbd    A       Blk     S       TO
Carl Hipp                HU     0.74   0.42   0.01   0.08   0.01   0.05
Darrin Olmscheid      CON   0.54   0.20   0.05   0.01   0.01   0.06
Mike Campbell          HU     0.52   0.22   0.11   0.01   0.06   0.08
Stu Neville             STO    0.51   0.25   0.06   0.04   0.02   0.05
Seth Jonker            CAR    0.50   0.20   0.07   0.01   0.02   0.08
Tyler Nicolai            UST    0.48   0.06   0.11   0.01   0.07   0.03
John Fraase            CON    0.47   0.30   0.10   0.01   0.03   0.08
Jeremy Sutherland    CAR    0.46   0.12   0.11   0.02   0.05   0.07
Bobby Fong             STO    0.43   0.16   0.05   0.01   0.02   0.05
Aaron Burtzel           SJU    0.43   0.27   0.10   0.02   0.04   0.04
Alex Healy              UST    0.40   0.07   0.09   0.01   0.03   0.06

Right away we see Hipp at the top with 0.2 more ppm (points per minute) than the next closest. He also leads the rebounds and blocks by a considerable amount. His steals and assists leave some to be desired, but he doesn't really strive for those either. Finally, his TO per minute number is also pretty low comparatively.

Hopefully this leads into some insightful discussion; however, I realize pure numbers do not constitute the honor of MVP.

[aero75]

I begin to stir the pot with MVP discussions providing a purely data based approach to start off.

The following chart provides the base stats for the 2 best players on each team in players IMHO, plus Burtzel as an add in. A little twist to bring in pure efficiency, the numbers reported are per minute of play time in conference only. The players are ranked in descending order of points per minute. I tried to make the margin look good...at least it looked alright on my computer. 

Player                   Team   Pts     Rbd    A       Blk     S       TO
Carl Hipp                HU     0.74   0.42   0.01   0.08   0.01   0.05
Darrin Olmscheid      CON   0.54   0.20   0.05   0.01   0.01   0.06
Mike Campbell          HU     0.52   0.22   0.11   0.01   0.06   0.08
Stu Neville             STO    0.51   0.25   0.06   0.04   0.02   0.05
Seth Jonker            CAR    0.50   0.20   0.07   0.01   0.02   0.08
Tyler Nicolai            UST    0.48   0.06   0.11   0.01   0.07   0.03
John Fraase            CON    0.47   0.30   0.10   0.01   0.03   0.08
Jeremy Sutherland    CAR    0.46   0.12   0.11   0.02   0.05   0.07
Bobby Fong             STO    0.43   0.16   0.05   0.01   0.02   0.05
Aaron Burtzel           SJU    0.43   0.27   0.10   0.02   0.04   0.04
Alex Healy              UST    0.40   0.07   0.09   0.01   0.03   0.06

Right away we see Hipp at the top with 0.2 more ppm (points per minute) than the next closest. He also leads the rebounds and blocks by a considerable amount. His steals and assists leave some to be desired, but he doesn't really strive for those either. Finally, his TO per minute number is also pretty low comparatively.

Hopefully this leads into some insightful discussion; however, I realize pure numbers do not constitute the honor of MVP.

I love the work that you put into it and probably couldn't or wouldn't do it myself.
Do the coaches do the MVP voting?
With access to film they may be able to go with a per/possession table to even out half court teams vs. running teams.

[carletonsid]

Halftime:

Hamline 41, Concordia 36
St. Olaf 41, Gustavus 39

[carletonsid]

Halftime:

Hamline 41, Concordia 36
St. Olaf 41, Gustavus 39

Gusties with a 21-0 rip, go ahead 80-59. Oles answer with 9 straight, now 80-68, 2:29 left.

[carletonsid]

Gustavus 90, St. Olaf 71

Oles drop 3 of final 4 games. Bummer of a finish.

Seth Anderson & Bobby Johnson - 22 pts each
Phil Wirtjes - 16 pts
GAC shoots an absurd 68.5% from the field. Had to be about 75% in the second half. When they get that screening action and mid-range game going--look out!

Fong with 23 but no one else really got going for the Oles, especially in the second half.

Hambone up 80-68 with 2:05 left. Looks like Ham @ UST; GAC @ Carleton.

[piperinsider]

Here's cheering for a Hamline/Gustavus final! Gotta pick up the kid at 5 on Sunday - not doable from Northfield but definitely from HAM (or UST  )

HAM 86, CON 75

Holy Pannell. 5-of-7 from downtown in just 19 minutes. Aguirre was 3-for-5, too. Makes up for the 0-9 performance from Taber. Hamline will need some hot shooters to beat UST twice in one season. C'mon boys!

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

This is the 11th year that the Playoffs have been a 6-team affair....

*Counting Weds' action, the #5 seed has won twice in the quarterfinals (Bethel in 2008, GAC in 2011)

* Higher seeded teams have won 15 of 22 quarterfinal games

*Higher seeds have won 18 of 20 semifinal games. The exceptions: 2002 when #3 Bethel beat #2 GAC and 2010 when #4 Carleton beat St. Thomas    

*The #2 seed has made the title game 9 times. The exception was in 2002 when #3 Bethel beat #2 GAC in the semifinals   

*The #1 seed has made the title game 9 times. The 2010 UST team was the lone exception   

*The #1 seed has won the tourney 8 times. The exceptions were in 2003 when #2 GAC won it all and 2010 when #4 Carleton was champ   

[Gacman]

In my last post I said that 3 losses was what it would take to win conference this year. I said this when both GAC and CAR were tied for second just two games behind UST with each getting to face one another and UST one more time. I was optimistically hoping that it would be GAC that ended up where CAR did. They had only lost a few games and they were all in overtime. I would have never predicted the losing streak that was soon to follow. I can't really explain why it happened. Losing Hill for the season didn't help but it was obviously more than that. With that said, GAC now sits only 1 win away from reaching the championship game for the 3rd time in four years.

Interesting tidbits....

GAC has now won at least 1 playoff game for 9 consecutive years and counting. The longest streak in the MIAC.

This is the 5th time in the last 6 years GAC and CAR have met in the playoffs.

06 Semifinals             at CAR           CAR 55 - GAC 48  GAC had chance to take lead with under a minute left.
07 Quarterfinals        at GAC           GAC 70 - CAR 59
08 Semifinals             at GAC           GAC 71 - CAR 70 OT GAC scores 6 points in last 13 secs to force OT.
10 Finals                    at GAC           CAR 78 - GAC 71 OT

This has been a fun rivalry that has started to develop over the last 6 years with both teams meeting so many times in the playoffs, and almost all of the games being tight and hard fought. It should be a fun atmosphere and an entertaining game to watch. With the each team winning on there home floor this year, you would probably have to give the edge to CAR especially given how both teams played down the stretch. On the other hand GAC is coming off a road playoff win where they shot 68.5% from the field, and CAR hasn't played since Saturday. Momentum could be on GAC's side. Either way recent histroy has shown us that we can count on a close game.
 

[Drake Palmer]

In my last post I said that 3 losses was what it would take to win conference this year. I said this when both GAC and CAR were tied for second just two games behind UST with each getting to face one another and UST one more time. histroy has shown us that we can count on a close game...  Edit: (Probably the last time you posted too.  ) 

Fair weather Gustie eh?  Fair or foul weather, in any event, good to see you back.  Bobby J. was fianlly playing like he was possessed last night, & Seth Anderson continued his season long, torrid shooting streak.   One of my favorite plays of his is when he runs that that curl across the top of the key catches the ball in stride, turns & shoots the ball all in one motion.  Most players have to pause & get their feet set. 

Could be a very good game on Friday with the Carlies.  Bobby Johnson will have to be just as strong on Friday as he was last night.

Props to the Oles, they're the gold standard in MIAC webcasting.  They've got a couple of different cameras, different angles, close-ups, & good announcers who weren't afraid to offer up the professional criticism of the home team.  Tough loss for the Oles.   In the 2nd half it appeared to me they went away from a successful game plan which was running the ball through Neville, & started casting up treys way too early in the shot clock.  Hopefully, they learn from this game & season, because next year they could definitely be a team to beat.

I caught the last 6-7 minutes of the Pipes-Cobbs game on the webcast.  The Pipes must have been channeling a bit of the old Gustie shooting touch last night too.  Tyler Pannell back to his new/old tricks – 5-7 from the 3pt line? Coach W. said "ain't no zone gonna stop this team two games in a row."  Good ups.   

Cobbs made decent run but just didn't have enough firepower to take out the Pipes.

A couple of intriguing matchups this Friday with a number of dangerous/streaky shooters left in the playoffs.

[Drake Palmer]

And how could I forget - yes, I'll make arrangements to pick up Mose's check for his pre-game Kim's chicken dinner. 

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

less than 10 hours till tipoff and this board is q-u-i-e-t!

My 2-cents worth-- I see UST winning in solid fashion tonight...maybe not as soundly as last Wednesday, but the Toms will maintain the defensive momentum from that matchup. The key will be shutting down HU's perimeter shooting- I'd put Nicolai on Parnell and Archer on Campbell.... that should neutralize those 2. Clog up the paint effectively as was done last week (and that Cord did but not with enough regularity on Weds) and that minimizes the damage from Hipp. Also, keep Big Carl off the line.  UST 79 -67

The other matchup is the toughest to handicap. Which version of GAC shows up determines how this game goes. Will it be the Gusties of Weds, who were reminiscent of past glory days? Or will it be the Gusties of recent weeks, who struggled mightily and found ways to lose winnable games (see the USJ debacle for an example).  If the latter is the case, Carleton romps to an easy win. if the former, the game will be a nailbiter to the finish, and may require at OT or 2 to settle it. I still give the Knights the edge, but of GAC is hot, it could be decided on the final shot.

[TheSuperfan]

If I have anything left to say, its that my Pipers are going to show up ready for tonights battle. They have a bad taste in their mouth from the last meeting and have the taste of blood from the first meeting at Hutton. The key for the Pipers will be ball control and limiting turnovers throughout the game. I expect Pannell to jack up a few threes regardless of who is guarding him (especially Nicolia with a height disadvantage), here is to hoping he is hot tonight. With that being said, if Taber and and Aguirre can help control the game with an occasional chip in from Hipp this game could be exciting. It is going to take a team effort to say the least from the Pipers to pull this one off...but these are not your ordinary Pipers.

[AO]

If I have anything left to say, its that my Pipers are going to show up ready for tonights battle. They have a bad taste in their mouth from the last meeting and have the taste of blood from the first meeting at Hutton.

maybe the bad taste in their mouth is the blood?