MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[carletonsid]

Just bumping this forward with an update and adding GAC and Augsburg in there so folks can figure out #3 and #4 spots. Havn't put in tiebreakers-maybe once we get to the final week.

Big games Saturday: GAC @ Carleton and St. Olaf @ SJU.

Gustavus (10-6): 2 home/2 road, 1 vs. top 5/1 vs. bottom 4
at Carleton
at Bethel
vs. SMU
vs. St. Thomas
BYE

Augsburg (9-6): 3 home/2 road; 0 vs. top 5/3 vs. bottom 4
at Macalester
vs. Hamline
vs. Bethel
vs. Carleton
at SMU

SJU (9-6): 2 home/3 road, 2 vs. top 5/2 vs. bottom 4
vs. St. Olaf
at Macalester
at Carleton
vs. Concordia
at St. Thomas

Bethel (8-8): 2 home/2 road, 3 vs. top 5/1 vs. bottom 4
at Hamline
vs. Gustavus
at Augsburg
BYE
vs. St. Olaf

Carleton (7-8): 3 home/2 road, 3 vs. top 5/2 vs. bottom 4
vs. Gustavus
at Concordia (Mon., 2/10)
vs. St. John's
at Augsburg
vs. Macalester

[Drake Palmer]

ROR – I tried watching on my iPad as well, but had to resort to watching it from my PC.  The SJU webcast reminded me of the old analog days of color TV.  Grainy reception, & the audio was a minute or so behind the video.  So I ended up watching the SJU video & turned down the sound (sorry VOJ), had the AUG-SJU stats screen open in another browser, the UST-BET game on the iPad, & Gopher Purdue game on the TV. Phew! 

(Props to Carleton & even Bethel for great webcasts with different camera angles & good solid, student announcers. The announcers are certainly homers, but are more than willing to acknowledge good play by the opposing teams.) 

The Dawgs are tough, but the Jays kept sending wave after wave of talented players at the talented, but not very deep Auggies.  It's tough to play their preferred fast pace style of ball with only 6-7 players. Conversely, I think the old fox in the woods tried to bait the Dawgs into running with the Jays. Coach Smith had 9 players who were on the floor for more than 10 minutes. The Dawgs only had 6 players with double digit minutes.

It could be Streetball #2 when the Oles travel up to C-ville on Saturday.  The last time these two teams met, the Oles prevailed 94-89! The Jays shot 33-57 57.9% FGA, & 12-22 54.5% 3FGA.  STO was even hotter as they were an insane 32-53 60.4% FGA, 6-14 42.9% 3FGA, & an outstanding 24-27 from the FT line for 88.9%.  If the Jays commit to playing defense, this game could be another barnburner.

A part of the reason for SJU's resurgence is the return of Mitchell Kuck.  He torched Gustavus the other night and was at it again last night. He had another very nice ball game against the Dawgs & scored 16 pts on 7-13 shooting.

My short list of best one on one players in the league:

Mitchell Kuck SJU – One of the premier finishers in the league.

Zach Riedeman UST – The cat's got the moves of a post player & the outside shot of a guard

Andy Seidlitz AUG - Tends to turn the ball over, but can score in bunches.

Dior Ford HAM - Smooth

Sterling Nielsen STO - Funky looking, but effective jumper, great handles, hard-nosed, pass first type PG.

Brycen Wojta BET – Looks like he hit the freshman wall, but this kid is going to be a stud.  He can finish, distribute, break your ankles, sweet J, & defend.

[carletonsid]

The Dawgs are tough, but the Jays kept sending wave after wave of talented players at the talented, but not very deep Auggies.  It's tough to play their preferred fast pace style of ball with only 6-7 players. Conversely, I think the old fox in the woods tried to bait the Dawgs into running with the Jays. Coach Smith had 9 players who were on the floor for more than 10 minutes. The Dawgs only had 6 players with double digit minutes.

Noticed that Hines, Seidlitz and Kornbaum played all 20 minutes of the second half (according to the box score). So did McKenzie for SJU and Marx 17, but no one else more than 14.

After going back through the play-by-play, Augsburg pushed out to a 5-point lead three minutes into the second half. SJU embarked on a 17-3 run over a six-minute stretch and then pretty much controlled the game from there. I found it interesting that SJU made only a single 3-pointer among those 17 points (took 3 long-range shots) - they made five layups (including a dunk) and two FTs. They continued to pound the paint and took only two 3-pointers the rest of the way.

You have to contain the dribble drive offense of SJU. I watched most of Carleton's game up there online (laptop, sound was fine) and the Knights controlled the game when they were able to contain the dribble penetration. Ultimately, if memory serves me correctly, too many turnovers and fouls down the stretch allowed SJU to come back and win.

Certainly, St. Olaf, St. Thomas and SJU seem to have the best depth (haven't seen GAC yet, so can't comment there). That makes Saturday's game in C-ville interesting. Even though last time was a high-scoring affair, I'll say that if the Oles can keep the J's out of the lane consistently, they win by 10. If not, #upsetalert!

[sac]

love the St. John's video guy.

[Drake Palmer]

It was a terrific playoff like atmosphere and game between SJU & STO in yesterday. After the game I realized I needed to download a different audio player to synch with the webcast video.  Duh!  As a result I missed out on the game call by VOJ and the game time pandemonium.

Good humor moment of the game.  Late in the 2nd half it appeared an overzealous Johnnie student "might" (?) have interfered with the ball when it went out of bounds.   I missed it, as did apparently the refs, but Coach Koz was halfway out on the court yelling at the refs while pointing at the Jays student section.  It took several Ole assistant coaches a minute or to two to pull an outraged Coach back to the sidelines and calm him down. 

Great nip & tuck, fiercely fought game between the Oles & Jays.  One of the main differences in the game was the outstanding play of Sterling Nielsen all game long, and especially in the last 10 minutes of the game. . I've said all season long I thought he was the best all-around PG in the league and yesterday was no exception. Nielsen finished with 23 pts on 6-12 FGA, a clutch 2nd half trey, 1-3 3FGA, 3 assists and was cold blooded down the stretch as he was 10-10 at the FT line.

In addition to his scoring, Nielsen did an excellent job of controlling the tempo and flow of the game which is what a great PG can do. Obviously Connor Gunderson is an excellent player in his own right, but he doesn't get so many of those ridiculously easy looks at the basket if it wasn't for the great court vision & passing of Sterling Nielsen. 

Top PGs

Parker Hines - AUG
Sterling Nielsen - STO
Erick Tengwall - UST

I've got to believe Nielsen has to be under serious consideration for league MVP honors as well.   

Although the Jays shot reasonably well, 50% FGA in the 2nd half, 44.4% for the game, their ball handling was a bit shaky down the stretch drive which lead to Ole baskets or FTS on the other end.  For the game, SJU had 15 TOs, while ST had 9 TOs. Once SJU gets the TO bug corrected, this could be a scary team come playoff time.  Tons of talent.

It should be a wild game next Wednesday night in Northfield when the #1 and # 2 teams square off for league bragging rights. UST & STO, can't wait.

[carletonsid]

Tough loss for my Knights on Saturday. Poor end to the first half vs. Gustavus, forced to play catch up, and then Brian Jacobs made a couple of tough shots down the stretch (cold-blooded three, baseline fadeaway). Must win for the Knights on Monday at Concordia, and a big week for Bethel with winnable games vs. GAC and at SJU.


Gustavus (11-6): 2 home/1 road, 1 vs. top 5/1 vs. bottom 4
at Bethel
vs. SMU
vs. St. Thomas
BYE

Augsburg (10-6): 3 home/1 road; 0 vs. top 5/2 vs. bottom 4
vs. Hamline
vs. Bethel
vs. Carleton
at SMU

SJU (9-7): 1 home/3 road, 1 vs. top 5/2 vs. bottom 4
at Macalester
at Carleton
vs. Concordia
at St. Thomas

Bethel (9-8): 2 home/1 road, 3 vs. top 5/0 vs. bottom 4
vs. Gustavus
at Augsburg
BYE
vs. St. Olaf

Carleton (7-9): 2 home/2 road, 2 vs. top 5/2 vs. bottom 4
at Concordia (Mon., 2/10)
vs. St. John's
at Augsburg
vs. Macalester

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

So here we are on the eve of the biggest regular season showdown at the top of the MIAC standings in a number of years and the board is church-mouse quiet.    About the only sound seems to be Drake mixing a batch or lemonade to sip while enjoying the game in hi Golden Gopher PJs, in surround-sound on multiple screens, perhaps with a radio signal translated into at least 2 foreign languages, for the full NBA-channel effect.

There are rumors that PapaHoops, thought to be held slave by MamaHoops is slinking out of the Hoops family cave to attend the game   

Where is our resident odds-maker AO, who does such a stupendous job with the lines for football? What is the line on the UST@Olaf game?  I'd guess if there was a line in Vegas on it, the Oles would be a 4-6 point favorite, but I defer to AO's expertise in these matters.

It looks to be an excellent matchup, as Koz has assembled one of if not his finest team in the 20 years he's paced the bench (and thrown a few jackets and even the occasional necktie) for the Oles. It interesting how well these two squads matchup and how eerily similar they are.

As I see it, when the Oles have the ball, there two key matchups--- how well Saarela/Nord do defending Gunderson and the battle between Nielsen and Tengwall... can the league's premier defensive player shut down the league's top perimeter shooter?  Can the Oles handle the UST pressure/press?  Conversely, when UST has the ball, will they be able to work it inside successfully? Will Alipate step up from long? Will UST draw enough fouls to take advantage of their excellent FT shooting?

All this said, I think the key to the game will be if either Pratt or Montero gets hot and gets his shots.... That will determine the winner.

My prediction--- UST 67, St Olaf 61, in an edge-of-your-seat thriller.  My second prediction is that, should the Oles prevail, suddenly this board will be swamped with MMQBs claiming "I knew all along they'd knock off the Tommies"

[AO]

Where is our resident odds-maker AO, who does such a stupendous job with the lines for football? What is the line on the UST@Olaf game?  I'd guess if there was a line in Vegas on it, the Oles would be a 4-6 point favorite, but I defer to AO's expertise in these matters.

The AO line would make Olaf a 1½ point favorite.  The Massey predicted score of 70-65 is probably closer to the actual result, but I don't sense that everyone has really bought into the Oles yet.  When is the last time they beat the Tommies?  Can they get any sort of fan support?  Will they bring the choir out to distract Tommies at the free throw line?

[Greek Tragedy]

Looks like I'm just in time for the big showdown. Some of us on the Top 25 board and elsewhere wonder just how good the Oles are. I mean, St. Thomas is ranked pretty high and St. Olaf has TWO votes. The Tommies only won by 2 at home and both lost to Point. St. Olaf has also lost to a good Augustana team and then Augsburg. Is St. Olaf that good and should they be in the Top 25? Surely, they will be behind St. Thomas when the regional rankings come out tomorrow, but a win against the Tommies could put them above St. Thomas in the regional rankings next week.

[Drake Palmer]

Thanks Mose, Finally, something to chew on & ruminate upon over the late lunch hour.

If I can escape the clutches of the Man and the salt mine, I might give up the creature comforts of home, the Ole webcast, & actually make the pilgrimage to Northfield to watch this battle of epic proportions.   

Random thoughts & opinions on STO & UST.

I agree and think if there was a line to set on this game, the Oles would be favored by 3-4 points.

*Stopping Gunderson will be key for the Tommies.

*PG play will be critical

*Two of the best PGs in the league will be playing. The Oles' Sterling Nielsen & Erik Tengwall hold the keys to their team's respective engines. Check out these stats.

Assists      
# 4 Nielsen: 68
# 7 Tengwall: 55

A/TO*
#2 Nielsen: 3.2
#3 Tengwall: 3.2
*Based on players with more than 40 assists.

FTS
#1 Tengwall: 69-79 FTA – 87.3%
#3 Nielsen: 45-53 FTA – 84.9%

*Although I'm sure Nielsen & Tengwall will spend some time guarding each other, the key deep ball threat from the Oles will be Justin Pahl (not Josh Pratt) & Nathan Kuck.  Pahl is 3rd in the league in 3FGA as he's firing at a 40.5% and has made 34-84 from downtown.  Kuck has converted on 18-38 treys for 47.5% from behind the arc.   Nielsen is more of a slasher, distributor, & shoots more of a mid-range jumper than the triple. Kuck is also dangerous with the ball in his hand, as is the entire team.  The Oles are first in the league in assists at 15.8 assists/game, & average the fewest TOs, 8.6 TOs/game.   

*Tommies will have to take care of the ball. They had 16 TOs in the first meeting against the Oles, compared to STO's 5 TOs.  In the front court a healthy Ryan Saarela will be needed to help out Riedeman & Nord guard Connor Gunderson, Michael Hultgren & the other tall bodies the Oles can run into the game.

*But the key match ups will take place out on the perimeter.  Oles don't turn the ball over.  Tommies will need to create enough defensive pressure to prevent Gunderson & others from getting those easy looks at the basket.  Nielsen & Gunderson both excel in running their two man game for each other, or create good looks for their teammates.

*Obviously, the Tommies aren't chopped liver and are among the league leaders in virtually every significant offensive and defensive statistical category. Certainly, decent to good shooting nights will be required from all of the Tommies starters (including Alipate  ), & a wild card bench player has to come up big.  In the first game, both team defenses effectively neutralized each other the other team's strengths.

*Will this be a repeat of the first game? This should be a good one!

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Looks like I'm just in time for the big showdown. Some of us on the Top 25 board and elsewhere wonder just how good the Oles are. I mean, St. Thomas is ranked pretty high and St. Olaf has TWO votes. The Tommies only won by 2 at home and both lost to Point. St. Olaf has also lost to a good Augustana team and then Augsburg. Is St. Olaf that good and should they be in the Top 25? Surely, they will be behind St. Thomas when the regional rankings come out tomorrow, but a win against the Tommies could put them above St. Thomas in the regional rankings next week.

GT-
I'd say you guys have UST pegged about right, but (like most of us as well in preseason) underestimate St Olaf. UST nipped the Oles at home by one on a buzzer-beater in the paint. They are very, very similar to UST in terms of talent, game style and depth. They smacked SJU @ SJU, which is no easy feat. They destroyed Augsburg in the 2nd meeting of the two and would win a best-of-seven, 5-2 IMO. They and UST will both make the NCAA field, and it wouldn't shock me if they both made the Sweet 16, depending on their draws. Two votes is a gross underestimation. If UST is #11/12, then I'd throw out that Olaf is #15/16.

[Pat Coleman]

Probably both are several steps below that, but we'll see what happens tonight.

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Pat--are you saying that rthe d3hoops.com Top 25 poll is wrong in having UST at #11? (modfication starts here)-- I was basing my comment "If UST is #11/12, then I'd throw out that Olaf is #15/16" on the d3hooops.com poll 

[AO]

Probably both are several steps below that, but we'll see what happens tonight.

Does "several" mean 7 or 70?  It will be hard to judge as they'll likely meet one of the top 6 teams in the 2nd round of the tourney, while the Eastern teams have a much easier ride to the sweet 16 and beyond.

[Drake Palmer]

Lost in the mini hype of the upcoming Ole-Tommie game, the Carlies lost in Moorhead on Monday night to the Cobbs 67-60.  Although this loss doesn't knock Carleton out of contention for the 6th & final playoff spot, it does put added pressure on their shoulders.

It was funny to read the Cobbs' game recap.  From their perspective, the Cobbs are still fighting for a playoff spot with a conference record of 7-10.  Although they still have a mathematical chance of making the playoffs, I think everyone has written off the Cobbs for this season.

**

AO – I think it's time to mount the annual D3 tourney protest and start complaining about the NCAA tourney & geographical placement of teams.