MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Smitty Oom]

Finally, this is one of the nastier MIAC dunks I've seen  - Jay Betts can FLY!

https://twitter.com/HamlineHoops/status/830874850080210944

Should be a great final week!

That was on Austin Nelson, 6'6" Forward who is pretty athletic himself... Unbelievable dunk by Betts!

[Smitty Oom]

HAM is in great shape - they have swept both teams behind them and seemingly just need one more W to clinch a spot.  Tough week though, heading to SJU Wednesday and then getting the feisty MAC team at home Saturday.

CORD has a murderers' row of a schedule this week - @CAR, @BET, then closing out the season at home vs. UST.  Hard to imagine they get more than one of those which puts them at 10 conference wins.

STO has three home games, UST, CAR, and AUG.  Again, hard to see them getting more than one, which would put them at 9.

AUGS has SMU and MAC at home, then goes to STO.  Pending other results, that last game could have very important implications. 

Someone smarter than I - if HAM, STO, CORD, and AUGS all end up 10-10 (which I think is possible, though unlikely), who gets the last 2 spots?

MIAC playoff tiebreakers.

If four teams tie at 10-10 in conference for the final 2 spots the first tiebreaker goes to the team with the best record among teams that finish tied...
** St. Olaf plays home against Augsburg saturday, assuming Augsburg wins to make all teams 10-10**

Hamline     4-2 (0-2 Auggie, 2-0 STO, 2-0 Cord)
Concordia  2-4 (1-1 Auggie, 1-1 STO, 0-2 Hamline)
St. Olaf     2-4 (0-2 Hamline, 1-1 Cord, 1-1 Auggie)
Augsburg  4-2 (2-0 Hamline, 1-1 Cord, 1-1 St. Olaf)

Now, someone smarter than me has to tell me what happens if two teams tie for the first tie breaker scenario... I would assume that Augsburg would take the 5th spot due to the fact that they swept Hamline who shares the 4-2 record against tie teams.

For the 6th seed then Hamline, Concordia and St. Olaf would be tied, back to the first tiebreaker...

Hamline     4-0 (2-0 STO, 2-0 Cord)
Concordia  1-3 (1-1 STO, 0-2 Hamline)
St. Olaf     1-3 (0-2 Hamline, 1-1 Cord)

Hamline would get the sixth seed in this case. Which means Hamline can lose the rest of their games and still feel pretty confident they would get in. It would take a Cord, St. Olaf and Augsburg to get some huge wins this week for the pipers to be knocked out!

[txg]

Using the win probabilities from Massey, I am getting a 1 in 1,392 chance of a four-way tie at 10-10.

[Smitty Oom]

Using the win probabilities from Massey, I am getting a 1 in 1,392 chance of a four-way tie at 10-10.

If you don't mind and it isn't too difficult... could you lay out the Massey probabilities each team makes the playoffs?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Massey does that stuff? Not sure Massey can figure out that kind of criteria since so much of it isn't computer driven.

[GoldandBlueBU]

Wow, given the UST loss last night, Bethel has to be kicking themselves for that road loss to Concordia earlier this year.  They could be looking at a 1 seed if not for that clunker.  Unfortunately, the Tommies will close out with 2 wins and lock it up.

Impressed by the fight that Gustavus is showing late in the year with nothing on the line.  They took UST to the last second a few games back, and played a tough 40 minutes vs. BU last night.  Well done.

[Smitty Oom]

Wow, given the UST loss last night, Bethel has to be kicking themselves for that road loss to Concordia earlier this year.  They could be looking at a 1 seed if not for that clunker.  Unfortunately, the Tommies will close out with 2 wins and lock it up.

Impressed by the fight that Gustavus is showing late in the year with nothing on the line.  They took UST to the last second a few games back, and played a tough 40 minutes vs. BU last night.  Well done.

What about St. Olaf and Coach Koz has them able to see past the purple reign and play their best games against the Tommies??.... Either way a season sweep of the 11-time MIAC champ isn't too shabby. Big win for their playoff outlook.

Concordia, STO and Auggie all have hard games coming down the stretch... Concordia probably being the hardest but they are the six seed currently. I think that if the Cobbs get one win of the two remaining they will be the 6 seed. If not it will come down to the winner of the Ole-Auggie matchup on Saturday.

Hamline vs. St. John's on Wednesday suddenly comes down to a fight for the 4th seed and the ability to host a playoff game! This will most likely be a preview of the 4-5 game in the first round of the playoffs and SJU won an exciting game in OT first time around in Hutton.

I watched the end of the MAC-SJU game and wow how entertaining was that? I will say that the Scots were playing as if it was their MIAC Championship game! Very inspired and a HUGE student section as far as MAC goes! Finally seeing the talent of MAC coming along, possibly giving Auggie all they can handle and knocking them out of the playoff hunt Wednesday! The bottom of the MIAC has to be some of the talented teams/rosters in all of D3, especially given the fact it is one of the largest conferences in the nation.

[txg]

If you don't mind and it isn't too difficult... could you lay out the Massey probabilities each team makes the playoffs?

That would be very difficult with all the tiebreaker scenarios.  UST, Bethel, Carleton in, STJ and Hamline practically in.  For this simplistic analysis I'm assuming Carleton beats St. Olaf, which I think very likely.

Oles need to beat Auggie and have the Cobbers lose out.  About 40%.

If Oles beat Auggie, Cobbers need one more win to clinch as they have the tiebreaker with STO.  If Auggie wins, Cobbers need to beat the Tommies to get in.  They would win that tiebreaker if Bethel finished first.  About 35%.

That leaves 25% for Augsburg.

This is very rough and also takes the Massey probabilities as given (including STO 72% over Augsburg which seems too high).

[Smitty Oom]

If you don't mind and it isn't too difficult... could you lay out the Massey probabilities each team makes the playoffs?

That would be very difficult with all the tiebreaker scenarios.  UST, Bethel, Carleton in, STJ and Hamline practically in.  For this simplistic analysis I'm assuming Carleton beats St. Olaf, which I think very likely.

Oles need to beat Auggie and have the Cobbers lose out.  About 40%.

If Oles beat Auggie, Cobbers need one more win to clinch as they have the tiebreaker with STO.  If Auggie wins, Cobbers need to beat the Tommies to get in.  They would win that tiebreaker if Bethel finished first.  About 35%.

That leaves 25% for Augsburg.

This is very rough and also takes the Massey probabilities as given (including STO 72% over Augsburg which seems too high).

It does seem quite high.. My personal take would be basically 50/50 neutral court, swing it maybe 60/40 given the home court for the Oles. but the Massey probably gives St. Olaf higher rank/probability due to their higher SOS and non-conference schedule.

[GoldandBlueBU]

So what's the BU tiebreaker with Carleton, should BU drop their last game vs. Concordia and end up with the same record, given that they split in the regular season head to head?

[AO]

So what's the BU tiebreaker with Carleton, should BU drop their last game vs. Concordia and end up with the same record, given that they split in the regular season head to head?

Carleton would get the 2 seed since they beat the Tommies.

1. Results head-to-head amongst all teams tied.
2. Combined results against teams above those tied.
3. Results against teams above those tied in rank order. (In the case of a multiple tie the teams that remain after this breaker will return to breaker #1 and so forth).
4. Record against teams below tied teams in descending order.
5. Random draw.

[GoldandBlueBU]

So what's the BU tiebreaker with Carleton, should BU drop their last game vs. Concordia and end up with the same record, given that they split in the regular season head to head?

Carleton would get the 2 seed since they beat the Tommies.

1. Results head-to-head amongst all teams tied.
2. Combined results against teams above those tied.
3. Results against teams above those tied in rank order. (In the case of a multiple tie the teams that remain after this breaker will return to breaker #1 and so forth).
4. Record against teams below tied teams in descending order.
5. Random draw.

Thanks AO.  So BU needs to close out a Cobber team that needs 1 more win, and is sure to view BU as the more likely opportunity than UST...fun!

[Smitty Oom]

So what's the BU tiebreaker with Carleton, should BU drop their last game vs. Concordia and end up with the same record, given that they split in the regular season head to head?

Carleton would get the 2 seed since they beat the Tommies.

1. Results head-to-head amongst all teams tied.
2. Combined results against teams above those tied.
3. Results against teams above those tied in rank order. (In the case of a multiple tie the teams that remain after this breaker will return to breaker #1 and so forth).
4. Record against teams below tied teams in descending order.
5. Random draw.

Thanks AO.  So BU needs to close out a Cobber team that needs 1 more win, and is sure to view BU as the more likely opportunity than UST...fun!

This is what February Bball is all about! Robertson Center should be a fun place to be Wed. night!

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings: http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2017/02/men-regional-rankings-second

[Smitty Oom]

Games tonight provided clarity into the playoff situation.

St. Thomas beats SMU at home and keeps pace, needing a win in Moorhead on Saturday to secure the Number 1 seed and keep the hopes at a Pool C alive

Bethel wins on senior night agaisnt the Cobbs. Game felt more of blowout then it actually was. Great game by Magnuson in his limited minutes, never seems to play more than 25 minutes on any night. The bigs for the Cobbs were out matched. Congrats to Trevor Hall on his 1000 point and both Hall and Wjota on senior night, both have been outstanding players for the Royals the past four years and helped bring this program to were it currently is. Although finishing the regular season at 19-6, I think the sub .500 SOS leaves them out of Pool C birth, which is too bad this is a very tough game, the loss against meddling Heidelberg to start the season is hurting the resume. Best case scenario for their Pool C birth is they beat Carleton and lose to St. Thomas which probably brings the SOS over .500 and ends at 20-7 (WP .740) but that still probably isn't enough with only one win against RRO. St. Thomas loses on Sat. and they claim the first non-purple regular season title and one seed in 12 years...

Carleton keeps rolling and playing stifling D. They lead the MIAC (and currently 6 in nation, could climb to 3 by the end of the season) in scoring defense at 61.8 points per game. They also have a +7.8 rebound margin per game, can you say winning formula? They appear to be locked in at the three seed no matter the outcome Saturday. This streak is unbelievable right now and they have to be one of the hottest teams in all of D3. Would be interesting to see what happens if they beat the sixth seed and Bethel (could end up being a W vs. a RRO...) and a loss to St. Thomas in the champion ship. The last two games help and already impressive .540 SOS for the Knights. They would then be 18-8 vs. D3 (WP of .692) which is probably not goo enough for a Pool C birth, although winning what would be 15 straight. Too bad, I want to see them make some noise in the NCAA, they will have to do it the old fashioned way with the AQ!

St. John's beats Hamline to secure the 4 seed and at least one home playoff game. Hamline came sneaking back in here but fell just short at the end. St. John's has no Pool C hopes but could be a dangerous team in the playoffs if Stokman and company get hot. Interesting to see John Oliver play 32 minutes tonight, box score said he did well!

Hamline clinches a playoff birth by sneaking in the backdoor. A win Sat. will secure them a 5 seed. Not going over tiebreaks should they finish at a tie at 10 wins. Although they swept the Oles and Cobbs and got swept by the Auggies I believe.

Last playoff spot is up for grabs:
Saturday games are Auggies at Oles and Tommies at Cobbs.

• 
  Auggie wins and they get it.
  
• Oles win and Cobbs lose, Oles get it.
• Oles win and Cobbs win, Cobbs get it.

It is anyones guess to what will happen but my guess is AUG has best chance as they control own destiny.

As far as NCAAs go, at best we will get 2 bids and more than likely just 1 if St. Thomas wins the AQ.

Another great MIAC season coming down to a close. I will be in Moorhead to celebrate Coach Rich Glas' last career regular season game, and hopefully not last!  What a career he has had with 600+ total wins!