MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Just witnessed the live stream of Stokman knocking down a 3 with 1 second to go for the Johnnies to win by 1 at Concordia. I was nearly prepared to see SJU drop another.

I was so excited that Concordia was about to knock off SJ2.... but knew if Stokman took the final shot it was going to be all net.

But US wrapped up at least a share of the title tonight by overcoming  a pesky Olaf bunch. I am looking forward to UST's next 2 games but their resilience tonight and Monday impressed me

[miac952]

Both Tommies and Johnnies are playing with fire. The Tommies in the way they have handled parts of the last two games. Against the Oles they blow a big lead and against Gustavus they start slow.

For the Johnnies they are on the bubble right now, and likely on the outside looking in, according to the Pool C wizards (not me). A buzzer beater against Concordia and the loss to Bethel doesn't help.

[Smitty Oom]

I like the new poll we have going! I voted for the Cobbs, although I think they have a little tougher go of it than Hamline and Gusties.

A lot of things to catch up in here, as I have been absent on this thread most of the season, but we seem to be picking up some interest down the stretch so here is a post about a multitude of things...

NCAA TOURNEY

- UST needs just one more win or one more SJU loss to clinch the MIAC Regular Season all by themselves. Currently at 17-0 in the conference, with remaining games of vs. AUG, @ SJU, @ SMU (if all else fails, this should be W for the Toms), I think it is a bigger question if they can run the table at 20-0 rather than if will take the MIAC crown back from SJU this year. I predict 19-1, with the loss coming in Collegeville, but todays game should be a good one, with Auggie taking the Toms to triple OT at Si Melby earlier this year.

Although they have the resume to host a pod for this first weekend, the Tommie women also are having a great season and this year they have priority in hosting. So, more likely than not, the Tommie men will have to pack their bags and leave St. Paul come the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

- SJU is a great team, but they have not been playing up to their potential as of late. Most teams do not play their best on the long Moorhead road trip, but SJU needing a Stokman buzzer beater to down my Cobbs raises concern, especially after recent losses and specifically they Carleton loss.

For the Johnnies they are on the bubble right now, and likely on the outside looking in, according to the Pool C wizards (not me). A buzzer beater against Concordia and the loss to Bethel doesn't help.

At Large Projections

Although things could have changed since your post, MIAC952, the John's are still sitting in pretty good "at-large" shape. Currently fantastic50 has SJU as a 60% chance of making pool C and on the right side of the bubble. Although they were 6th in the regional rankings, the teams above them will all fly off the board due to AQ or early Pool C selections putting the Johnnies up at the table fairly quickly in the selection process, given the rankings hold (they wont). I should note narrow margin of victory does not factor into the committees decision when selecting the tourney field.

60% (C#9) St._John's (18-4, 14-3 MIAC, SOS 0.518, NCSOS 0.537, 1-2 vRRO, WE#6) 29% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.537 / 2-3

I will note that UST is nearly a lock at 99% and no other MIAC team has a realistic shot.

MIAC PLAYOFFS

We have 5 teams that have already clinched with 3 more days of MIACtion left:

UST
SJU
Auggie
BU
STO

That last spot will be an interesting race between the teams mentioned in the poll above. I will delve more into different scenarios after todays games. With three games left and the teams so close in record, it will most likely come down to tiebreakers, and I don't feel like taking the time to figure all of it out only to have it all change in 3 hours with new results!

Unless we have some crazy results, it looks like Auggie and BU will be hosting the quarterfinal games with SJU and UST hosting the semi-final games. The race for third between Auggie and BU is a very important one, as getting the 3rd seed and avoiding STO in the quarters as well as getting SJU in the semis instead of UST would be quite the reward.

NATIONAL POST SEASON AWARDS

It is officially Booker Coplin season. Wow, what a campaign he has had for the Auggies. He is currently tied with one other player as the second leading scorer in all of D3 at 26.5 points per game. He is 73rd in the nation in rpg at 9.2, T54th in the nation with 9 total double doubles and T27th in the nation with 2.45 steals per game. All of this while being extremely efficient, he is shooting 51.5/41.3/90.2(16th in nation) currently. Absolutely incredible numbers given his high usage rate. Throw 3.7 assists per game and over a block a game to top it off and Booker Coplin is going to be an All-American. Personally, I think he should be first team AA but the one knock on his resume is that Augsburg, although a very good MIAC team, is not really on the national radar or a Pool C candidate. Collin Olmsheid last year was a d3hoops.com 1st Team All-American but they were also a tourney team. Either way, back to back All-Americans for Coach Griess and 3 different AA in 5 years (Kornbaum in 2013-2014) is a pretty cool statistic.

Anders Nelson may be the front runner for National Freshman of the Year. We have talked quite a bit about him on this thread, but go over to the multi-region thread and see what Ryan Scott, senior d3hoops.com writer, had to say about Anders.

ALL-MIAC 1st TEAM
It is an interesting year as the 2-4th leading scorers (Kent Hanson (CAR), Eli Cave (SMU), Jackson Henningfield (MAC)) are all on the bottom 3 teams in the conference, so I am going to have a tough time giving one of these players a 1st team nod.

Booker Coplin and Anders Nelson, mentioned above, are locks to be on the first team as is David Stokman. That leaves us with two more spots. I personally think those two spots at this point in the season should go to Austin Korba and Granger Kingland, with the right to change my mind should things change during these last 3 games!

Connor Bair, Derek Magnuson, Kent Hanson should then headline the second team.

ALL-MIAC Freshman Team

LOCKS:
:: Anders Nelson - G - UST - Duh
:: Nolan Malo - F - GAC - 10.1pts (53.3/43.2/73.3) 5reb 1.2ast 21.5min
----------------------------
Other Candidates:
:: G - Caden Freetly - SMU - 9.5pts(37.1/35.0/65.6) 5.6reb 2.0ast 29min
:: G - Colton Codute - SJU - 4.7pts(43.1/43.2/89.5) 2.2reb 2.4ast 20min
:: G - Eric Sathy - MAC - 8.4pts (41.4/36.4/62.9) 2.1reb 0.7ast 27.5min
:: F - Carlston McKenzie - CAR - 7.3pts(59.6/-/47.1) 3.8reb 0.3 ast 18min
:: G - Riley Miller - UST - 5.7pts(56.5/51/85.7) 1.9reb 2.0ast 18min

[Drake Palmer]

Nice Job Smitty!!!

Back to more Saturday night hoops! 

[Smitty Oom]

A couple of very interesting statistics I discovered today when I was "paying attention in class" ... LOL.

A lot of coaches always preach defense, finish possessions (rebound) and make shots. I mean, in its simplest form, basketball can be boiled down to these three very basic principles. If you do all 3 of these well you will have a great shot at winning games and having a great season. Anyways, everyone knows that St. John's is a great team but these statistics are incredible...

Team FG %: 54.2% (695-1282) - Best in MIAC - 2nd Best in the Nation
Oppoent FG%: 38.9% (510-1311) - Best in MIAC - 15th Best in the Nation
Opponent PPG: 63.3 - Best in MIAC - 12th Best in the Nation
Rebound Margin:  - Best in MIAC - Best in the Nation

These are pretty impressive stats for the Johnnies. They may not be quite as good as they were last year, at least by record and the eye test, but they have been very dominant this season nonetheless.

Lastly, don't worry Tommie faithful, I know you guys are having a great season too. I found some impressive Tommie stats as well, but I will post those tomorrow in anticipation for the big game on Wednesday! 

[Bspratt2]

Smitty, I'm glad you posted those stats because I've been noticing them this season as well. Honestly, I think they are evidence that the Johnnies are actually better this season despite a few more losses. Simply put, the strength of the MIAC last year allowed the Johns to go 19-1. Bethel, and obviously UST, not being as strong allowed us to run roughshod. This season, the conference has four legitimately good teams, and even the middle-to-bottom teams feel more competitive. Last year, SJU was +299 in point differential going 19-1. This season, despite the 15-3 record, they have a +334 point differential. Losses on the road to Whitewater, UST, and Bethel are all perfectly understandable, and losing to Carleton is just a random blip that happens. I certainly hope SJU gets a chance to redeem themselves in the tournament this year, but looking forward to great basketball teams playing on Wednesday night! Go Johnnies!

[txg]

I think the conference was much tougher last year overall.  I think Bethel and Augsburg were a little better last year, and of course St. Olaf and Carleton were much, much better.  Gustavus also.  I think the MIAC had 4 teams ranked in the top 20 by Massey last year.

Obviously the Tommies are an order of magnitude better this year, and the bottom of the league is tougher (St. Mary's and the Cobbers much improved).

[Smitty Oom]

Smitty, I'm glad you posted those stats because I've been noticing them this season as well. Honestly, I think they are evidence that the Johnnies are actually better this season despite a few more losses. Simply put, the strength of the MIAC last year allowed the Johns to go 19-1. Bethel, and obviously UST, not being as strong allowed us to run roughshod. This season, the conference has four legitimately good teams, and even the middle-to-bottom teams feel more competitive. Last year, SJU was +299 in point differential going 19-1. This season, despite the 15-3 record, they have a +334 point differential. Losses on the road to Whitewater, UST, and Bethel are all perfectly understandable, and losing to Carleton is just a random blip that happens. I certainly hope SJU gets a chance to redeem themselves in the tournament this year, but looking forward to great basketball teams playing on Wednesday night! Go Johnnies!

Agree with this for sure. Last season the bottom of the league was very bad. St. Mary's lost all of their games (-22.8 avg pt differential), Mac lost all of them except the two Mary's games (-29 avg pt differential) , Cobbers lost all of their games outside of MAC and St. Mary's (-7.5 avg pt differential). This year St. Mary's (-6 avg pt differential) and MAC (-12 avg pt differential) have been much more competitive this season in general. Kudos to the new coaches there, hopefully they can continue this going because strengthening these programs would be great for the MIAC overall.

In other news...
- Booker Coplin was named to the national team of the week for the third time this season!
- 7th time this season a miac player was honored for the d3hoops team of the week

[bball1122]

I'll weigh in:  I think the top two teams this year are better than the top 2 last year.   I think the bottom two teams this year are better than the bottom two last year (though that's a low bar.  SMU and MAC were historically bad last year).  I think teams 3 and 4 are about the same.    And I think teams 5 through 9 are significantly worse this year than last.    All in all, I think the league is slightly down from last season.   

Tonight's slate of games is full of intrigue.  Of course Tommie/Johnnie is huge, but it may be much more important for the Johnnies than the Tommies.  A win for SJU catapults them off the bubble, in my humble opinion.

Concordia/Carleton, St. Olaf/Hamline, and Bethel/Gustavus all hold implications for the last spot.  A Concordia loss or a Hamline win eliminates the Cobbers from the playoff chase.    A Hamline win combined with a Gustavus loss puts the Pipers in the playoffs.   If both Hamline and Gustavus lose with a Cobber win, we have a really fun final Saturday shaping up.   

Augsburg needs to take care of business against MAC (which they barely did last time) to keep their push for the third seed alive.    Hopefully Coach Griess' squad isn't resting on their exciting win at Schoenecker last Saturday.

Final thought - barring significant attrition, Saint Mary's will be a playoff team next year.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The second week Regional Rankings have been released: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/men-regional-rankings-second

[Cav-J]

Good evening, long time creeper but finally joined the board. Thanks for all of the good information and insight.

So my first question is.. what criteria do you think should be used in choosing the all conference picks.

How much should the following be weighed?

Eyeball test
Team success
Comparison stats [and then which stats?]
Year in school
Past awards

Are there other criteria that I am forgetting that should be mentioned?

I plan on following the board and some games online tonight.

Go Cards!

[faunch]

Both Tommies and Johnnies are playing with fire. The Tommies in the way they have handled parts of the last two games. Against the Oles they blow a big lead and against Gustavus they start slow.

For the Johnnies they are on the bubble right now, and likely on the outside looking in, according to the Pool C wizards (not me). A buzzer beater against Concordia and the loss to Bethel doesn't help.

So what does a 19 point ass kicking mean?
SJU belongs in the tournament...especially if they play in the MIAC Championship. The only thing that would rule them out is an upstart winning the MIAC tournament.

[txg]

Johnnies have to feel very good about their chances.  Assuming they beat Carleton, I think they have a good chance at a C even if they lose to Bethel in the semis, and an extremely good chance if they lose in the final.

Meanwhile, whatever sliver of a C berth chance Augsburg had is now gone with the loss to Mac.  They are a tough team to figure.

And my heart is thankful that I stopped watching the St Olaf game when I did.  They led 58-36 with 6:30 to go and were outscored 19-0 the rest of the way to hold off the Pipers by 3.  What a season.

[miac952]

Both Tommies and Johnnies are playing with fire. The Tommies in the way they have handled parts of the last two games. Against the Oles they blow a big lead and against Gustavus they start slow.

For the Johnnies they are on the bubble right now, and likely on the outside looking in, according to the Pool C wizards (not me). A buzzer beater against Concordia and the loss to Bethel doesn't help.

So what does a 19 point ass kicking mean?
SJU belongs in the tournament...especially if they play in the MIAC Championship. The only thing that would rule them out is an upstart winning the MIAC tournament.

Nice win by J's for the parts I could see (some ugly webcast kinks). Had to turn the audio with incessant VOJ whining too. His color guy offsets hima bit at least. You'll get no disagreement from me that the Johns should be in, and that preceded tonight's win. I was more so noting that there was "chatter" from the experts that know the selection process that they were hovering on the bubble. The Johnnies do need to run to the championship to keep the auto-bid to them or UST.

The Tommies have some defensive issues to sort out.

[Smitty Oom]

Both Tommies and Johnnies are playing with fire. The Tommies in the way they have handled parts of the last two games. Against the Oles they blow a big lead and against Gustavus they start slow.

For the Johnnies they are on the bubble right now, and likely on the outside looking in, according to the Pool C wizards (not me). A buzzer beater against Concordia and the loss to Bethel doesn't help.

So what does a 19 point ass kicking mean?
SJU belongs in the tournament...especially if they play in the MIAC Championship. The only thing that would rule them out is an upstart winning the MIAC tournament.

Before this game tipped off they were very much on the right side of the bubble, roughly 70% chance at making it into the tourney. If you look at my post from a week ago I corrected miac952s statement, Drew has a bug when 952 posted that listed all teams as "bubble-out" that were t currently leading their confernce. I assume that's what lead him to his post.

Drew hasn't updated his site (id link it but I'm on my phone and it's a hassle) but with a great win today I'd assume SJU is pretty darn safe. I'd imagine they would still have a chance should they even drop their next two games. With that said, I'm sure they will be coming out ready to avenge their Carleton loss on Saturday.

After beating the tommies the Auggies found themselves at 8th in the pretty strong west regional rankings. Augsburg had a ~5% chance at an at large birth the MAC game tonight. The loss takes it out of question entirely, but Auggies slim chances included needing to make it to the miac championship game AND have things break right in other conferences to have a shot at it.