MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[SagatagSam]

A night of several upsets and dramatic finishes in the MIAC.

Concordia goes a perfect 25-25 from the free throw line and takes down the Johnnies in Moorhead. The Johnnies are reeling and are now in a second place tie with Macalester. Johnnies presently hold the tiebreaker over the Scots by virtue of the head-to-head win back in early December.

Carleton stomped its crosstown rival 73-56, and now has a domineering 2.5 game lead for the regular season championship with five games to play.

St. Scholastica upset Gustavus, 67-66, in Duluth! The Saints led by as much as 5 with under 3 minutes to play. The Gusties made a frantic attempt at a comeback but fell short. The Gusties went 0-2 from 3-point range and 1-3 from the free throw line in the final three minutes.

Hamline's Bradley Cimperman hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer in overtime to break the tie and give the Pipers the 87-84 win. St. Mary's and Hamline are now tied for the final playoff spot. SMU and Hamline split the regular season series (first tiebreaker) and both have a 3-5 record against the teams above the tie (second tiebreaker). If the playoffs started today, St. Mary's would be in by virtue of it's win over Carleton (third tie breaker).

[SagatagSam]

Here's video of the final two possessions from the Hamline-St. Mary's game last night. No audio, which is unfortunate.

https://twitter.com/hamlinehoops/status/1620273402115424256?s=46&t=iaNJJtMvvuL9wKRpNcYsKw

[txg]

Here are Massey's expected final wins:

CAR - 15.22
SJU - 13.60
GAC - 11.35
MAC - 11.25
STO - 11.22
SMU - 10.31
HAM - 9.55
BET - 8.05
CON - 7.34
AUG - 6.62
CSS - 5.60

With a grain of salt.  I think Massey overrates St. John's and St. Olaf, and underrates teams like Bethel and Concordia.  But if I were to pick today I would have Carleton #1, Johnnies #2, the next 4 in some order, and Hamline missing out.  The Pipers' remaining schedule is brutal, with 5 of 6 games on the road.

[bball1122]

Here's video of the final two possessions from the Hamline-St. Mary's game last night. No audio, which is unfortunate.

https://twitter.com/hamlinehoops/status/1620273402115424256?s=46&t=iaNJJtMvvuL9wKRpNcYsKw

Here it is with the audio:

https://twitter.com/HUPipers/status/1620286728224509953?s=20&t=VR5RN7Ra3CYP443auy4HbA

[SagatagSam]

Here's video of the final two possessions from the Hamline-St. Mary's game last night. No audio, which is unfortunate.

https://twitter.com/hamlinehoops/status/1620273402115424256?s=46&t=iaNJJtMvvuL9wKRpNcYsKw

Here it is with the audio:

https://twitter.com/HUPipers/status/1620286728224509953?s=20&t=VR5RN7Ra3CYP443auy4HbA

Good find!

Looks like they did put some time back on the clock for one final heave for SMU, but I can't imagine they had much more than 0.6 for a try. I used several attempts to stop the video right as the ball went in and the clock was around 0.5 and 0.6 when the ball went through the net.

[SagatagSam]

Here are Massey's expected final wins:

CAR - 15.22
SJU - 13.60
GAC - 11.35
MAC - 11.25
STO - 11.22
SMU - 10.31
HAM - 9.55
BET - 8.05
CON - 7.34
AUG - 6.62
CSS - 5.60

With a grain of salt.  I think Massey overrates St. John's and St. Olaf, and underrates teams like Bethel and Concordia.  But if I were to pick today I would have Carleton #1, Johnnies #2, the next 4 in some order, and Hamline missing out.  The Pipers' remaining schedule is brutal, with 5 of 6 games on the road.

txg, are you able to provide a link to the Massey win projection? I'm newer at this and have only navigated Massey for limited football purposes.

[bball1122]

Here's video of the final two possessions from the Hamline-St. Mary's game last night. No audio, which is unfortunate.

https://twitter.com/hamlinehoops/status/1620273402115424256?s=46&t=iaNJJtMvvuL9wKRpNcYsKw

Here it is with the audio:

https://twitter.com/HUPipers/status/1620286728224509953?s=20&t=VR5RN7Ra3CYP443auy4HbA

Good find!

Looks like they did put some time back on the clock for one final heave for SMU, but I can't imagine they had much more than 0.6 for a try. I used several attempts to stop the video right as the ball went in and the clock was around 0.5 and 0.6 when the ball went through the net.

.3 was put on the clock.   No shot got off before the buzzer.  Hamline's decision to put Austin Holt on Anthony was a prudent one - it took Anthony 32 shots to get his 33 points.  Freshman Sam Hoffman kept the Pipers in it early with his hot shooting stoke and Cimperman brought it home late.   Fun game and two very solid teams - I think either could win a playoff game if they get in.

[txg]

txg, are you able to provide a link to the Massey win projection? I'm newer at this and have only navigated Massey for limited football purposes.

The last two columns on his ratings page are expected future wins and losses.  I just added the future win number to current conference wins.

[SagatagSam]

Here's video of the final two possessions from the Hamline-St. Mary's game last night. No audio, which is unfortunate.

https://twitter.com/hamlinehoops/status/1620273402115424256?s=46&t=iaNJJtMvvuL9wKRpNcYsKw

Here it is with the audio:

https://twitter.com/HUPipers/status/1620286728224509953?s=20&t=VR5RN7Ra3CYP443auy4HbA

Good find!

Looks like they did put some time back on the clock for one final heave for SMU, but I can't imagine they had much more than 0.6 for a try. I used several attempts to stop the video right as the ball went in and the clock was around 0.5 and 0.6 when the ball went through the net.

.3 was put on the clock.   No shot got off before the buzzer.  Hamline's decision to put Austin Holt on Anthony was a prudent one - it took Anthony 32 shots to get his 33 points.  Freshman Sam Hoffman kept the Pipers in it early with his hot shooting stoke and Cimperman brought it home late.   Fun game and two very solid teams - I think either could win a playoff game if they get in.

Yeah, 0.3 seconds or less requires a tap by rule, so no catch and shoot. That's basically impossible having to go the length of the floor.

[SagatagSam]

Macalester (T-2) at Concordia (9). Concordia is coming off a rare win, only their second in the last ten games. Macalester has a must-win game here if they want to have any realistic chance at catching Carleton for the regular season championship. It only gets tougher after this game for the Scots. Four of their final five games are against teams currently in the playoffs.

St. Olaf (5) at St. Mary's (T-6). The battle right atop the cut line for the playoff. St. Olaf won the first game in this matchup, 75-69, but that was all the way back on November 30. A SMU win causes all sorts of problems for the Oles, at best, it would be a two-way tie for fifth and they would still be in. At worst, it would put the Oles in a three-way tie for fifth, subject to several tie breakers.

Gustavus (4) at St. John's (T-2). The Johnnies are looking to sweep the season series against the Gusties, but the team we have seen on the floor since the new year feels very different from the one that won, 66-50, in St. Peter on November 22. Four of SJU's next five games are at home, where the Johnnies are 7-1, which is helpful as far as trying to find that early season mojo. Gustavus comes into this game having won three of their last four, the only problem is that their one loss was Monday at St. Scholastica and two of those wins came by two and four points, respectively, against Bethel and Augsburg.

Hamline (T-6) at Bethel (8). Hamline is coming off the thrilling win against St. Mary's on Monday night, and Bethel is still mathematically capable of getting into the playoff--a possibility I had all but completely written off in early January. These are two teams that are playing some of their best basketball of the year. Hamline won the first matchup, 90-77, at Hutton Arena in St. Paul.

St. Scholastica (10) at Augsburg (11). The Saints were playing for pride alone on Monday night and did themselves proud with a one-point victory over Gustavus. The Saints have a realistic shot at their first two-game win streak of the conference season. Augsburg won the first meeting by 22 points on January 5 in Duluth.

Carleton is idle tonight and will host Bethel on Saturday for a chance to clinch a playoff berth.

[SagatagSam]

For the first time in months we have no ties in the conference standings, so no tiebreaker talk for the moment.

MIAC scoring leader St. Mary's Anthony Raheem was fouled as he hit a three-pointer to tie it with four seconds remaining in the game. Raheem would complete the four-point play to take the lead and St. Olaf couldn't get a shot off as SMU leapfrogged St. Olaf to move from the sixth seed to the fifth.

Concordia controlled the game against Macalester and led for all but for all but 2:22, knocking off the #2 and #3 ranked teams in the conference in back-to-back games. The loss puts MAC three games out of the conference lead with five games remaining on their schedule:

2/4   Gustavus
2/8   St. Olaf
2/11   Carleton
2/15   at Saint John's
2/18   at Augsburg

It's probably one of the toughest schedules in the conference remaining.

St. Scholastica has strung together two wins with its win over Augsburg, and Bethel has now won five of its last six with the win over Hamline.

The Johnnies returned to what looked like their earlier season form, thumping Gustavus by 19 points and securing the season sweep.

[GoldandBlueBU]

So, Bethel has  an away at Carleton this Saturday, followed by an away @ Olaf the following Saturday, before closing out with a home against St. Mary's, and a home against SJU the following Wednesday and Saturday...

How many would they need to win to have a realistic shot at the 6 spot?  3 of 4?  all 4?  Seems extremely unlikely they'd win all 4, but maybe a shot at 3 out of 4 given the fact that they'd be fighting for their playoff lives, and SJU and Carleton will be firmly in the playoffs already?

I actually watched a fair amount of the game against Hamline last night - not quite sure if BU was playing great, or Hamline was flat after their buzzer beater against St. Mary's a couple of nights prior.

[SagatagSam]

So, Bethel has  an away at Carleton this Saturday, followed by an away @ Olaf the following Saturday, before closing out with a home against St. Mary's, and a home against SJU the following Wednesday and Saturday...

How many would they need to win to have a realistic shot at the 6 spot?  3 of 4?  all 4?  Seems extremely unlikely they'd win all 4, but maybe a shot at 3 out of 4 given the fact that they'd be fighting for their playoff lives, and SJU and Carleton will be firmly in the playoffs already?

I actually watched a fair amount of the game against Hamline last night - not quite sure if BU was playing great, or Hamline was flat after their buzzer beater against St. Mary's a couple of nights prior.

More is better, obviously. Four wins probably gives them a 90%+ chance of getting in. But, I think they have a somewhat realistic shot with just three wins. The kicker is if they get into any tiebreaker scenarios, that could be their doom. A three way tie for sixth isn't out of the question at this point, and whomever is sitting at ten wins will be needing some strong tiebreakers on their resume.

Bethel definitely doesn't control their own destiny with only three wins, and they cannot--I repeat, cannot--lose to either St. Olaf or St. Mary's.


**I suppose there might be some total chaos scenario where St. Scholastica, Augsburg, and Concordia win all their remaining games against the top half of the league that would allow BU to go 3-1 and have one of those losses be to St. Olaf or SMU and still get in.

[txg]

If Bethel wins 3 and gets to 10-10, they have a shot.  One of the wins would need to be against St. Olaf probably.  That's a tough finish, but Bethel is playing very well.  I watched them tune up Mac in the second half a week or two ago.  I couldn't watch them last night because I was watching the St. Olaf - St. Mary's game.  And after that, I couldn't watch highlights of the other games because my eyes were bleeding.

Made up probabilities:  if they go 3-1, 30% chance.  If they go 4-0, 80% chance.

[SagatagSam]

Here's some food for thought:

The MIAC began playing a 20-game conference schedule upon Carleton's return to the conference in the 1983-84 season. Since that year (37 seasons, excluding the 2020-21 COVID season), 67% of the time a team with ten wins has finished no lower than sixth. And, a team with 11 wins has finished no lower than sixth 91.8% of the time.

A team with 11 wins has only failed to finish sixth or better in three seasons (1991-91, SJU; 2011-12, HAM; 2012-13, SJU).