MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[SagatagSam]

Concordia can't be eliminated yet.  I haven't gone through the tiebreakers, but they can finish 10-10, and if St. Olaf lose and GAC beats Hamline, then there would only be 6 teams with 10+ wins (since finishing at 10-10 means beating Hamline in the finale).

You're right. I was trying to run through too many tiebreaker scenarios for too many different teams and got things mixed up.

Concordia gets in if:
1) it wins both of its remaining games (vs. Carleton, vs. Hamline);
2) AND St. Olaf loses to St. Scholastica
3) AND Hamline loses to Gustavus

We will know by Wednesday night if that game vs. Hamline on Saturday will even matter. A loss to Carleton or a St. Olaf win eliminates the Cobbers.

Simple formula for the folks from Moorhead: cheer against all things from Northfield this Wednesday.

[SagatagSam]

Other clinching scenarios:

St. John's clinches the #2 seed with a win over Macalester on Wednesday night AND a St. Mary's loss. The Johnnies will have swept the season series against Macalester, and would win that tiebreak in the head-to-head should they become tied again. St. Mary's would win the tiebreak head-to-head with SJU if they end up tied at 12-8: SJU and SMU split the regular season series, and SJU got swept by Carleton, whereas St. Mary's split with Carleton (second tiebreaker).

St. Mary's can clinch a playoff spot with a win in either of its two final games.

[txg]

Do I have the tiebreakers wrong?  Head-to-head, then combined record against teams ahead, then records against teams ahead one-by-one in descending order?

[SagatagSam]

Do I have the tiebreakers wrong?  Head-to-head, then combined record against teams ahead, then records against teams ahead one-by-one in descending order?

You've got it right. I skipped over the combined record against teams ahead because Concordia and Hamline would both be tied at 5-5 vs. Carleton, SJU, MAC, SMU, and GAC.

[txg]

I could be wrong, but I think Concordia would get in at 10-10 regardless of other results.  They don't need St. Olaf to lose.

[SagatagSam]

Ok, I'm going to try to run through this step-by-step so I can see if I'm getting it right (because I totally might not be, and if that's the case, I'm still posting the results just so I can learn from it and eat my crow).

[SagatagSam]

I ran the following scenario for the last two weeks and here's what I came up with (spoiler alert--txg is right in that St. Olaf does not have to lose to St. Scholastica and Concordia has a path to the playoff at 10-10):

Carleton splits (loses to Concordia, wins at Scholastica) finishes 16-4 (First Place)
SJU sweeps Macalester and Bethel, finishes at 13-7 (Second Place)
Macalester loses to SJU, defeats Augsburg, finishes at 12-8 (Third Place)
St. Mary's beats Bethel, loses to Gustavus, finishes at 11-9 (Fourth Place)
Gustavus beats Hamline and SMU, finishes at 11-9 (Fifth Place)
St. Olaf beats Scholastica, finishes at 10-10 (Tie for Sixth Place)
Concordia runs the table, goes 10-10 (Tie for Sixth Place)

7.3.2  TIE BREAKER. Tie breaking procedure (for top six teams and for placing top six):
1. Results head-to-head amongst all teams tied. - Concordia and St. Olaf split regular season. Move to #2.
2. Combined results against teams above those tied.  Concordia and St. Olaf both 5-5 vs. CAR, SJU, MAC, SMU, GAC. Move to #3.
3. Results against teams above those tied in rank order.  (In the case of a multiple tie the teams that remain after this breaker will return to breaker #1 and so forth). Both Concordia and St. Olaf split with every team above the tie in rank order. Move to #4.
4. Record against teams below tied teams in descending order. St. Olaf split vs. Hamline; Concordia swept Hamline. Concordia wins the fourth tiebreaker by virtue of the sweep over Hamline.

Sam eats crow.

[txg]

Yes, I agree with that.  I have that specific scenario as the only one where St. Olaf doesn't make the playoffs with a win.  And, as I mentioned, I have Concordia in the playoffs if they win out.  Basically, St. Olaf and Concordia do well in the second tiebreaker, having gone .500 against the teams above them.  (Concordia hasn't gone .500 yet, but would with a win against Carleton.)

I also have Concordia with a path to hosting a playoff game!  They win out, Hamline beats GAC, GAC beats St. Mary's, and Bethel beats St. Mary's.  Then there is either a 4-way or 5-way tie for fourth at 10-10 (depending on whether St. Olaf wins).  Concordia would have the best record in games among those teams and get the #4 seed.

[Greek Tragedy]

https://d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2023/men-regional-rankings-first

[SagatagSam]

Tonight in the MIAC:

Carleton (1) at Concordia (8). Carleton has clinched everything worth clinching at this point: the regular season conference championship and the overall number one seed in the conference tournament. Concordia is fighting to hang onto the slimmest hope of making the conference playoff. This win is critical for the Cobbers for tiebreaking purposes should they end up tied with Hamline, St. Mary's, Gustavus, or St. Olaf.



Hamline (T-5) at Gustavus (T-5). The Hell in a Cell game for the mid-MIAC. The winner of this game clinches a playoff spot if both St. Olaf and Concordia lose. Even if those other contingencies don't happen, the winner is set up for a clinching win on Saturday. Hamline won the first matchup of these teams on January 16, 85-82 in St. Paul.

St. Mary's (4) at Bethel (9). Bethel is coming off being freshly eliminated from the playoff while SMU has a chance to clinch its third trip to the MIAC playoff in school history (fourth if you count 2022 when every school qualified). If you count 2022 and ignore the skipped year of 2021, when there was no MIAC playoff, this could be the third consecutive year SMU has qualified.

Macalester (T-2) at St. John's (T-2). Both teams have clinched playoff spots, now comes the opportunity to secure a bye week to the semifinals or a home game. St. John's clinches the #2 seed with a win AND a St. Mary's loss. Either team secures at least one home playoff game with a win. The Johnnies whopped Macalester in St. Paul 75-50 back on December 7. Much has changed since then. It could be a similar result if we see the Johnnie squad that just played St. Mary's, and if not, this could be Macalester's game for the taking.

St. Scholastica (10) at St. Olaf (7). St. Scholastica has been eliminated from the playoffs and is playing with house money, which has been a recipe for some success, the Saints winning three of the last five games, two of those wins coming against current playoff teams. The playoff light is dim for the Oles, but not out. St. Olaf has a few paths to the playoffs:
1) Win vs. CSS, AND Gustavus loses to Hamline or St. Mary's;
2) Win vs. CSS, AND Hamline loses to Gustavus and Concordia, AND Concordia loses to Carleton; or
3) Lose vs. CSS, AND Gustavus loses to Hamline and St. Mary's, AND Concordia loses to Carleton and Hamline.

Augsburg is idle tonight and will finish at home against Macalester on Saturday.

[txg]

The Carleton - Concordia game has been postponed until tomorrow due to weather.

[bball1122]

The Carleton - Concordia game has been postponed until tomorrow due to weather.

Someone smarter than me - if Carleton wins tomorrow,  is the playoff field set?  Not the order, but the teams.   CAR, SJU, MAC, SMU, STO, HAM?  I don't think GAC gets in on the 3 way tie-breaker with STO and HAM even if they win Saturday. 

[txg]

Someone smarter than me - if Carleton wins tomorrow,  is the playoff field set?  Not the order, but the teams.   CAR, SJU, MAC, SMU, STO, HAM?  I don't think GAC gets in on the 3 way tie-breaker with STO and HAM even if they win Saturday.

That's correct.  St. Mary's and St. Olaf are in.  Hamline is also in unless Concordia wins out.  GAC is eliminated.

[SagatagSam]

Someone smarter than me - if Carleton wins tomorrow,  is the playoff field set?  Not the order, but the teams.   CAR, SJU, MAC, SMU, STO, HAM?  I don't think GAC gets in on the 3 way tie-breaker with STO and HAM even if they win Saturday.

That's correct.  St. Mary's and St. Olaf are in.  Hamline is also in unless Concordia wins out.  GAC is eliminated.

I would agree. Gustavus is playing only for an extra point or half point in the Durenberger Trophy standings. They're otherwise eliminated. Which is not surprising when you consider their overall record of 9-15 this season. It's not good for yourself or the conference to go 0-5 in non-conference play.

11/11  UW-River Falls, L, 58-62
11/15  at Crown, L, 83-75
12/14  Bethany Lutheran, L, 96-88
12/28  at Puget Sound, L, 77-76
12/30  at Pacific Lutheran, L, 64-61

[bball1122]

With just a smattering of games left (though some very important ones), I thought I'd try my hand at end of year awards.  I believe this year the MIAC is issuing the following awards, which are different from those in the past:  16 player all-conference team, Offensive, Defensive, Rookie, and Coach of the Year.  This seems to leave out conference Player of the Year, which I will add in myself.  To recap from last year:

Player of the Year:  Joe Palmer, Augsburg
Sixth Man:  Rayquon Moore, Augsburg
Coach of the Year:  Pat McKenize, St. John's

My picks for this year:

First Team All-Conference (6 players)

I'm putting six players here because there were six here last year.

Jeremy Beckler, Sr., CAR:  21.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.0 APG, 35 3PM, 39% 3FG 83.7 FT%.  Best player on the best team, he's been a stud.

Raheem Anthony, Sr., SMU: 24.6 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 4.3 APG, 53% FGM, 44% 3FG, 33 steals, 81% FTM.  Somehow got even better this year.

Caleb Williams, Jr., MAC: 21.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.4 APG, 40% 3FG, 60 3PM, 29 steals.  Most feared shot-maker in the MIAC.

Austin Holt, So., HAM:  15.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 47 steals, 27 blocks.  Impact transfer filled the box score on a nightly basis.

Ryan Thissen, Jr., SJU: 17.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 56% FGM, 88% FTM.  Big wing that is a matchup nightmare.

Spencer Swanson, So. GAC: 20.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 51% FGM.   Most years, 20.1 would be enough to lead the league in scoring.  Love the Dirk-esque fade.


Second Team All-Conference

I'm putting six players here because I want to.

Bradley Cimperman, So., HAM: 20.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.8 APG, 37% 3FG, 99 FTM, 79% FTM.  Pure scorer had a 51 point game, multiple game winners.

Luke Harris, So., CAR: 16.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.3 APG, 55% FGM.  Outstanding floor leader who is a crafty finisher near the hoop.

Connor Martin, Jr., STO:  13.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 5.0 APG, 32 steals, 50% FGM.  League's leading assist man led the Oles to the playoffs.

Zach Doely, Jr., BET: 18.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.4 APG, 22 steals, 23 blocks, 64% FGM.  Second leading rebounder, was a force inside for the Royals.

Matt Johnson, Jr., CORD: 17.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 41% 3FG, 91% FTM, 41 3FGM.  Another impact transfer, consistently solid down the stretch.

Coby Gold, So., MAC: 14.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.7 APG, 37% 3FG, 52 3S, 29 steals.  The D3 Joe ingles has NBA range and a full-time green light.


Others Who Could Be Third Team All-Conference

Mitchell Plombon, Sr., SJU
Kooper Vaughn, So., SJU
Badou Ba, So., MAC
Owen Ziegler, Jr., SMU
Nathan Hendler, Sr., STO
Rowan Nelson, So., CORD
Joey Kidder, Jr., BET
Nick Carlson, Sr., SCH (What is the abbreviation for Scholastica?)
Conner Knoepfle, AUG


Offensive Player of the Year

Raheem Anthony, Sr., SMU

In short, Anthony has been a force since the day he set foot on campus in Winona, but this year he has taken it to another level.  24.6 PPG, hitting 100 free throws at an 81% clip (almost 25% better than any other of his seasons), knocking down 44% of his threes, dishing out the third most assists in the conference while playing 36 minutes per game.  It is one of the more impressive individual seasons in MIAC history and puts a cap on what has been an historic run during his time at Saint Mary's.  Anthony has always been fun to watch, and his senior season will not soon be forgotten.


Defensive Player of the Year

Austin Holt, So., HAM

Holt has been a revelation for the Pipers, transferring in from D2 Northern State and stepping right into the starting 5 spot.  Holt is second in the league in blocks with 27 (1.5 per game) and leads the league in steals with 47 (2.6 per game, nearly a steal per game more than the next highest).  He also leads the league in defensive rebounds with 7.7 per game.  He's been asked to guard opposing big men as well as opposing guards and wings on the perimeter (Holt was the primary defender on the aforementioned Anthony in Hamline's win over Saint Mary's on January 30th, forcing him to shoot 12-32 from the field), all while leading the Pipers in minutes played.  In short, Holt has been an impact player for the Pipers in their push to make the playoffs.


Rookie of the Year

Kobe Kirk, Fr. STO

This was a two-horse race, between Kirk and Payton Thomsen of Bethel. Kirk averaged 12.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, shooting 49% from the field and 34% from three.  Thomsen averaged 14.0 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, shooting 42% from the field and 33% from three.  Very similar seasons and both had a big impact on their teams.  In the end, I may just be a prisoner of the moment, as Kirk poured in 28 points last night in a must win, playoff-clinching game for the Oles.  You could easily pick Thomsen and I would agree, pointing to his 31 point masterpiece against Macalester.

Other Notable Freshmen

Noah Shannon, MAC: 6.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 20 steals
Sam Hoffman, HAM: 9.3 PPG, 43 3FG, 46% 3FG, 19 steals
Jacob Cook, CORD:  9.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG
Kayser Hassan, AUG: 9.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 22 steals

Coach of the Year

Ryan Kershaw, CAR

Kershaw, in his first year after taking over his legendary father-in-law Guy Kalland, is having a dream season.  Carelton is 20-3 overall, 15-3 in the MIAC, outright conference champion for the first time in 60 plus years and their first conference title of any kind since 2010-11.  The Knights are leading the league in scoring with 76.6 PPG, three pointers made per game (9.8), rebounds per game (35.3), and assists per game (15.06).  They play a fun brand of basketball and Kershaw is deserving of this award.

Player of the Year

Raheem Anthony, Sr., SMU

To me, this is a three horse race between Anthony, Beckler, and Caleb Williams.  Each is deserving in their own right, and Beckler may win because he is the best player on the best team AND he's having an outstanding season.  But I think Anthony deserves the award, as he was one of the best players in the league before this season and improved his weaknesses significantly.  His clutch shot against St. Olaf to tie and then take the lead on the free throw is the stuff of league MVPs, and I think Anthony should be the recipient of this (no longer existent?) award this season.

That was a lot of thoughts for one post - would love to hear what everyone else thinks!  Looking forward to a fun final six games and then what should be a wide-open playoff field!