MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[big_shocker]

I stuck my neck out last year predicting SMU would make a run at the playoffs, and my neck got broken. I don't trust them to be good this year, and I don't trust Hamline. There is just nothing since I've been watching the MIAC to suggest that Hamline will be good this year. I at least know that SJU has a solid coach and great athletes every year, which is something. SJU, I can see making the playoffs (maybe even a home game first round). Hamline and SMU, no. As WW claimed, 'I'll believe it when I see it.'

[localcoach]

It's great to see some more consistency by the colorful posters.   

I see that Augsburg finally has a roster and team preview posted.  It looks like they brought in three new players, two of whom played at junior colleges last season.

I guess I will also put my two cents in on all this whole Hamline, St. John's, St. Mary's talk.  I don't know how good each of these teams will be this season, but here is what I do know.  If you look at these three programs last season as compared to the previous year there are some obvious things that stand out.  The biggest of which is their records over the past two seasons

Hamline
2004-05: 10-15 (8-12 conference)
2003-04: 6-19 (3-17 conference)

SJU
2004-05: 8-17 (6-14 conference)
2003-04: the same as above

SMU
2004-05: 5-20 (4-16 conference)
2003-04: 7-18 (6-14 in conference)

What you see is that St. John's stayed the same, St. Mary's actually dropped off, although they had a coaching change, and Hamline showed considerable improvement, even with a coaching change.

None of the three teams lost any major players to graduation last year, although it could be argued that Hamline lost their best player in Brandon Aukes, I suppose.

When you throw in the new recruits for each team, some of whom I saw play in high school as Drake would be quick to point out, and some of which I know nothing about, just based on newspaper articles and press releases, both Hamline and St. John's should be better in the long run. St. Mary's appears to have added some more guards to their stable, which may or may not help them.

Either way my point is this.  All three of these programs should be better this season then they were last year.  If they aren't then you have to wonder what the problem is.  Last but not least, big_shocker how can you say "There is just nothing since I've been watching the MIAC to suggest that Hamline will be good this year. "  Just look at the records above, look at what players they return, and look at what they brought in at least based on their accomplishments in high school.  To me it looks like, at least on paper, that Hamline has a playoff caliber team, which might even surprise and finish a little higher in the standings.

[Pipes]

I already admitted I couldn't catch the ball Splash, there was no need to rub it in.  I will also add that what Fernando lacked in finishing skills on the offense side of the court he made up for in tenancity on the defensive end. 

I dont think the style of play Mark Dixon has is conducive to him being an All-Miac performer.  He brings great energy and athleticism, but that can get him into trouble at times.  There were several games last year when he barely saw the floor due to foul trouble, and he also has a tendency to throw passes that aren't there in the cutting Concordia style of offense.  That said, if he can stay on the floor for extended periods of time and limit his turnovers, he could challenge for an All-Miac spot.  I also second Mig that he is a good shooter.  I would say that he is better than me, but thats not saying much. 

[Pipes]

I meant to say he was a better shooter, but either way its debateable.

[bethelguy]

Games finally tip off tonight.  The resultes of 2 games tonight should be very interesting.

UST vs. Stout - as mentioned below Stout brings back basically their entire team from last year, as does UST.  This will give a good indication of how good UST will be out of the gates.  Stout's roster shows 2 guys at 7', we'll see how they defend (and box out) Roosefelt.  

Conc vs. Wartburg - another in-region team that brings back a lot.  Wartburg is returning 3 starters (combined 37 ppg) including IIAC POY Nate Schmidt.  Miller and Linz will have their hands full with Schmidt and I'd love to see how the Wartburg guards handle Eckhoff.  2 potential All-West Region players going in this game.

tomorrow night's game of SJU vs. River Falls and the potential matchup of BU vs. Central will also be interesting games to see where these 2 teams stand in the early part of this season.

[Greek Tragedy]

One one of the Nonemachers play, really.  The other does a good job of handing out water to his brother.  He has his games where it seems like he can dominate, but other games where it seems impossible that a 7-foot guy could be invisible!  Not sure what one will show up.  Last year, he didn't seem like he looked for the shot against a zone, even if he was wide open from 8 feet away.

I thought the Gustos were favored to win the MIAC, not the Tommies.  Correct me if I'm wrong. 

[Drake Palmer]

...I thought the Gustos were favored to win the MIAC, not the Tommies. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You're both right & wrong Old School.  From a national pollsters' perspective, yes, GAC is favored to win the MIAC this year.  However, at the local level most fans & people in the know, with the possible exception of the most rabid, Gustie fans are giving the pre-season favorite's nod to UST. 

In one of his recent hoops' blogs, Pat C. said something to the effect that UST was favored to win the conference last year & faltered.  So I got the sense that some of the D3 hoops pollsters were holding that against UST this year.   Although finishing 2nd place in the conference & losing to GAC in the tourney final isn't that bad.  But with all of the expectations surrounding last year's club, their finish was a little short of the outcome I'm sure they were hoping for.

Scoring points this year shouldn't be a problem for the Tommies, but now it seems that some of the Tommie boosters are starting to back off from the pre-season hype & are a little concerned about their efforts on the defensive side of the ball.

This opening weekend at the Wooster tourney will be a good indicator of where they're at.

[big_shocker]

Maybe I was always a little biased against Hamline because they played poorly against GAC, while SJU played GAC tough both times (the only times I saw either team play), but I still can't get behind a Hamline team getting into the playoffs. Maybe I'm biased because I haven't seen the last time they were in the playoffs. Either way, I still don't see Hamline making the playoffs.

[Willy Wonka]

Drake - Having talked to a Tommie coach at length a few weeks ago, he wasn't willing to submit to the label as "favorites." His message was, basically, it's GACs until someone takes it. I'd still call them the favorites but...

Do they have the talent? In abundance. Are they capable? Surely. Will it happen? Nothing is a sure thing.

local - You have a point about Hamline. However, it's always easier to make a bad team decent than it is to make an average team good, especially when you are relying so heavily on freshmen and can't even set a rotation. I doubt they will take the next step this season, though it MAY happen 1-2 years from now if the supposed solid recruiting continues.

[kel_varnsen]

There are basically two types of teams in the MIAC:

1) Those who are good this year.
2) Those who will be good next year

Interestingly, there's not all that much turnover from one category to another. There are the powerhouses who are always good, and then everybody else cycles between lousy and mediocore. Making the playoffs isn't really that big of an accomplishment. A .500 record is about all it takes, and with all the games amongst the bottom two thirds of the conference, they're guaranteed to pile up some wins against each other. Also, as Willy said, the difference between decent and good is far bigger than the difference between bad and decent.

I believe Hamline was heralded as the wave of the future in MIAC after an 8-12 conference showing in '02-03. Then they followed that with the aforementioned 3-17 season. Though the circumstances of graduation and incoming players may have been different, this would certainly contribute to skepticism of predictions for Hamline to have a strong season this year. This doesn't begin to account for the question as to how they'll replace Meunchow.

That said, here are my bold predictions:

1. GAC 18-2
2. UST 16-4
3. CAR 14-6
4. BU 13-7
5. Concordia 11-9
6. Macalester 10-10
7. Hamline 8-12
8. Augsburg 7-13
9. SJU 6-14
10. SMU 4-16
11. St. Olaf 3-17

Quarterfinal: BU over Concordia, CAR over MAC
Semi-Final: GAC over BU, UST over CAR
Championship: GAC over UST

[Russian Mig AK47]

Pipes - Dickie is a better shooter than you, but you are at a disadvantage because you only look at the basket with one eye when you shoot.

Columbianmaffia - Anderson is a bum, you are better off without him... he hogs the ball!  Marx is legit, when did he hurt his knee?   You tell all those bums that I hold it against them for not asking me to play on your team!  Every team needs a role player, you guys are all scorers.  No matter, I am going to start my OWN team next year composed of this years UST bballers, and we are going to dominate you old timers.

Hamline & St. Mary's -- maybe St. John's
A losing tradition is an enormous mental hurdle to overcome and not one easily shed.   There is no doubt these teams have added talent over the past couple years, but it takes more than that to overcome their losing mentality.  It is not reasonable to go in to a season expecting them to contend (even for a playoff spot) when they have not proven in the past that they can sustain success.  St. John's is not that far removed from success, so they probably don't fall in to this category -- but can still explain why they are getting no love right now.

[Drake Palmer]

Talk about nerve wracking - Tommies up 42-35 at the half over Stout;  dig a hole for themselve in the 2nd half & crawl backout to tie up the game at 76 apiece at the end of regulation.  Now I gotta take lil drake to hoops.  Drat!

Stats crew Live or whatever it's called is better than nothing, but it's too painful trying to read the feed & listen to the computer click!

UST up 82-80 with 2.5minute  in OT.

[Willy Wonka]

UST was down 88-84 with 5 seconds left and are currently trailing 89-86 with 3 seconds left. The times seem a little sketchy, so I don't know if they're right, but Stout is shooting 60% from the field, 60% from deep and outrebounded the Tommies 33-23. They have plenty to work on it looks like.

*Site updated

WOW!! Must have been a great ending! UST loses 91-90 in OT! Somehow, I doubt the times I quoted from the website are right.

Schnettler is well on his way to a world record for 3-pointers made and attempted with six and 13 in the opener And Weaver started for Shimek? He was their best and most consistent player last season IMO. Curious decision. What's the over/under for grumbling to start?

[Drake Palmer]

Willy - I had the final stats up for a second before they were bumped for the next game.

The Tommie site  & game stats had them being outrebounded by 10, 33-23 as you had earlier reported.  One of the 7 foot twins for Stout is a non factor & the other one is a taller, skinnier, less athletic version of Rosie.  I'm really surprised the bigger & taller Tommies were out boarded. But Stout's bigger wings 6-2 & 6-3 Chaisson & Farmer can jump.  Stout also went 10 deep with players while the Tommies went with their typical 6-7 man rotation. 

Looks like little Chandler from Burnsville was nasty for Stout -  I think he was high man for Stout with 20 points.   It's too bad one of the MIAC schools couldn't get him.  He's a nice player.

Keating went 6-16 in his debut.

[Drake Palmer]

Alright Meglo - if you or anyone else went out to Wooster for the game someone's gotta give us the scoop.   It's one thing to get beat in what appears to be on paper a thriller 91-90 in OT.  But when your starting lineup goes 6-8 210lbs, 6-6 230 lb, 6-6 225 lbs, & a couple of 5-11 tweener type guards how in the hades do you get outrebounded by a team that starts an earnest if not semi- athletic 7 footer, a 5-9 140 lb PG, a 6-0 2 guard , a 6-1 & 6-3 wing?!?

Granted Stout brings off the bench another 7 footer & a 6-6 forward, but check this out: The leading rebounder in the game was a 6-1 wing. Greg Chaisson with 10 flipping boards!!  Good lord!

This certainly isn't the end of the world for UST, but the concerns some posters expressed earlier seem to be true.  Running with a club like Stout just ain't gonna work for the Tommies.  They  need to use their superior size & body other teams up.  This was the formula UW Stevens Pt successfully used to beat Stout last year.  Stout threatened to runaway with the game in the 1st half, but Point kept plugging away to make the 1st half score respectable.  Then in the 2nd half Kalsow & Bennett went to work & bodied up the the smaller Stout defenders & won going away. If I recall, the score was  in the mid 60s for PT & 50s for Stout.  IMO, there's not a team in the MIAC that can effectively run & press like Stout can. 

Hopefully this game will serve as a wake up call for the Tommies. They've got too much talent to not do well this season. 

In other news of note I see that Loras of the IIAC beat 13th ranked UW-Whitewater in the last seconds of the tourney they're playing in.  Last I checked the Cobbs were getting worked by #14 Wartburg.

Hopefully the Royals & Johnnies can represent the MIAC with a couple of wins this weekend.  Granted their competition is not as strong as that of the Tommies & Cobbs.