MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[BETHEL34]

VOJ...in conference games only, Bethel still leads the league in scoring.  So how is that misleading?? 

ATTENTION: BOLD PREDICTION AHEAD!!

I think Bethel comes out on fire and wins this game by 10 points.  I think they match up quite well with the Johnnies and it comes down to them winning the battle in the defensive paint.  I don't think they are going to let a Schaffer go 9 for 12 with 25 points again.  St. Johns is playing very well right now, but I don't think we will ever see the "100points Johnnie team against GAC" ever show up on the road.  Every blowout they have had has come at home and when they are on the road they tend to barely squeak by.  2pt win at Carleton, 9 pt win at GAC (best road win yet), 6pt win at MAC, 10pt win at AUG, OT at Hamline to beat the worst team in the league, 6 pt win at CON,  then a lost to ST. Mary's.  Just pointing out that away from Collegeville they seem to struggle a little bit more.  W's are W's, but never have they shown that 100pt team, and it isn't going to start at BU tonight.  It will be a great game, but suffering only a 4 point loss at Collegeville (a place we never play that well in) will transform to a decent size vic tonight for  BU.


Sumander - you are exactly right.  Chuck is the X factor in tonight's game, and I think he is going to bring his A game tonight and put up 20 and 8 with 3 blocks. 

[Willy Wonka]

Let the record be set straight here, since cmob has been caught in a lie.

No "tripple" burgers for you for a week, young man! Now go to your room!

hahaha...no doubt...i still stand by what i said and i have talked to other people who had the same opinion on him as a coach so i guess the question is (probably doesnt help that he is a coach at EP...that probably gave myself and others a skewed view on him to start with)...is he really like that or does he just rub people the wrong way that have watched him walk the side lines??

I've never seen him coach, but I've played with and against him since the 9th grade. He's someone I'd always want on my side and someone I never had a problem with when we were on opposite sides.

bum - Fair enough, though I have a hard time imagining McCoy being a player opponents ever prepare for...he's an undersized scrapper who will get garbage points, from what I can tell - which is far from an indictment. I don't remember the other two you mentioned enough to comment.

[columbianmaffia]

WW

while eating my lunch and pondering all the different ways i could solve the worlds problems with a tripple burger i realized i was being hypocritical with my observation of your home boy coachin up the EP eagles...i always say you cant judge a player on just a performance or two so it should be the same way for a coach...he may have rubbed me the wrong way in that game but that doesnt mean thats how he is always going to portray himself as a coach...so i take back that he was a cocky and arrogant coach...but i will say for that game thats how he came off...but i will hold off my judgements until i watch him coach 7 or 8 times...i still think he got the T though

TRIPPLE BURGERS AROUND!!!

who will all be at the UST CAR game tonight??

[ustbumkneez]

id liken Espenson to Sean Sweeney, Cmob, in terms of how opponents, and opposing fans, sometimes responded to them, and how their teammates felt about them. Espenson always irked me a little as an opponent (just like Sweeney), as he had a tendency to talk some rubbish and maybe even get a little chippy from time to time (just like Sean), but i always respected his intensity and, certainly, his abilities. he always backed up whatever he said, at least when we played GAC. it was good to see a top notch player like him play with fire, and do some of the things that players of that caliber dont always take the time to do (take a charge, set solid screens, dive for a loose ball). so, you always repsected him, and definitely wouldnt have minded having him on your side, much the same way with Sean. consumate teammates and winners who enjoyed drawing the opposing fans' ire, and relished shutting them up.

[columbianmaffia]

id liken Espenson to Sean Sweeney, Cmob, in terms of how opponents, and opposing fans, sometimes responded to them, and how their teammates felt about them. Espenson always irked me a little as an opponent (just like Sweeney), as he had a tendency to talk some rubbish and maybe even get a little chippy from time to time (just like Sean), but i always respected his intensity and, certainly, his abilities. he always backed up whatever he said, at least when we played GAC. it was good to see a top notch player like him play with fire, and do some of the things that players of that caliber dont always take the time to do (take a charge, set solid screens, dive for a loose ball). so, you always repsected him, and definitely wouldnt have minded having him on your side, much the same way with Sean. consumate teammates and winners who enjoyed drawing the opposing fans' ire, and relished shutting them up.

i would agree with your statements...i always thought Espenson (and sweeny too even though i sometimes made fun of his high tops that he wore one year) was a great player but all the times i watched him play i didnt see him talking although im sure he did as almost every player does...i think that also caught me off gaurd because i always saw him as a quiet player

[finsleft]

VOJ...in conference games only, Bethel still leads the league in scoring.  So how is that misleading?? 

ATTENTION: BOLD PREDICTION AHEAD!!

I think Bethel comes out on fire and wins this game by 10 points.  I think they match up quite well with the Johnnies and it comes down to them winning the battle in the defensive paint.  I don't think they are going to let a Schaffer go 9 for 12 with 25 points again.  St. Johns is playing very well right now, but I don't think we will ever see the "100points Johnnie team against GAC" ever show up on the road.  Every blowout they have had has come at home and when they are on the road they tend to barely squeak by.  2pt win at Carleton, 9 pt win at GAC (best road win yet), 6pt win at MAC, 10pt win at AUG, OT at Hamline to beat the worst team in the league, 6 pt win at CON,  then a lost to ST. Mary's.  Just pointing out that away from Collegeville they seem to struggle a little bit more.  W's are W's, but never have they shown that 100pt team, and it isn't going to start at BU tonight.  It will be a great game, but suffering only a 4 point loss at Collegeville (a place we never play that well in) will transform to a decent size vic tonight for  BU.


Sumander - you are exactly right.  Chuck is the X factor in tonight's game, and I think he is going to bring his A game tonight and put up 20 and 8 with 3 blocks. 

Bethel34:
Johnnies win tonight 78-65. Why? Because we have a bandwagon and you don't. It's simple, really.

[sumander]

So BET34 got me thinking about the J's road struggles. I will be the first to admit they do struggle on the road. What area of the game do they struggle with? My first thought was shooting. The J's have played 14 MIAC games so far, 7  @ home and 7 on the road. What I found out is the j's shoot better on the road! This year, on the road overall fg% is 54.3% 3 pt % is 46.5%. At home those same #'s are 52.1% and 42.1%! Surprising 

I looked at rebounding nexted and found that they rebound better on the road as well. They have not been outrebounded on the road this year and have a 255/217 advantage over their opponents. At home they have been outrebounded in 4 games and their advantage is only 232/221 all of this due largely to the 36-14 advantage over GAC.

Finally I looked at assists to turnovers and found my answer. On the road they average 14.3 assists while committing13.3 turnovers for a 1.07 A/T ratio. At home they average 20.1 assists to 10.4 t.o. for a stellar 1.93 A/T ratio.

Correct me if someone knows better, but this would lead me to believe they run their offense "better" and are more disciplined at home. On the road they maybe rush things and "settle" for shots!

If anyone cares I would be interested to hear their take on these numbers. Maybe this oversimplefies things!

[diehardfan]

Bethel34:
Johnnies win tonight 78-65. Why? Because we have a bandwagon and you don't. It's simple, really.

K+ for that one. The bandwagon comments are extra funny when you get 50 of them in one day like I did yesterday.

[Pat Coleman]

I think the J's come out and play Bethel well...this is a series that the J's swept last year and I think they can do it again...depends on if officials let them play or if Mark Bakko decides to show up and screw the J's(again)...up until this year the Johnnies had not won a game worked by John Yurkovic in a long time...that has changed...

Again with the officials. We got it. You don't like officiating.

[Drake Palmer]

Well Sum- It's snowing down here in the cities.  Just better be careful who's driving the bus/bandwagon.





Hopefully, not this guy.  Your road woes could get real problematic & the Johnnies might end up in Austin,Texas.   

[finsleft]

Well Sum- It's snowing down here in the cities.  Just better be careful who's driving the bus/bandwagon.





Hopefully, not this guy.  Your road woes could get real problematic & the Johnnies might end up in Austin,Texas.   

"On the road again, I just can't wait to get on the road again..."

We can't afford Willie, but we do have Retired Old Rat at the helm tonight. He's kinda like Willie, just no ponytail.

[Retired Old Rat]

I took the bandwagon out for a spin last night.  It's been a while since I've been on board and I needed a little practice.  Got it up to 85 with no problem.  With the the high octane fuel and the bottle of Everclear that Fins added today, I feel 100 is within the realm of possibility.

Any other bandwagon jumpers out there for tonight?

I promise I'll have the bandwagon back in the barn before sun up.  I'll do the best I can to return it in the same condition as I checked it out. 

BTW, all the new Anna pictures are a nice touch.  Thanks to BDB for that.

[Retired Old Rat]

And I've never declared bankruptcy.  At least not yet.   8)

[d3bballfollower]

going along with Bet34...I picked SJU to win tonight in the pick 'em, but within the last hour I have decided that I think Bet34 is right and Bethel will shoot too well to lose...Bethel 83 SJU 74

I'm starting the Bethel bandwagon right now...anyone who wants to join is welcome...this includes those Johnnies fans that will want to hop on the ROYAL bandwagon after the game

[abominable_snowman]

So BET34 got me thinking about the J's road struggles. I will be the first to admit they do struggle on the road. What area of the game do they struggle with? My first thought was shooting. The J's have played 14 MIAC games so far, 7  @ home and 7 on the road. What I found out is the j's shoot better on the road! This year, on the road overall fg% is 54.3% 3 pt % is 46.5%. At home those same #'s are 52.1% and 42.1%! Surprising 

I looked at rebounding nexted and found that they rebound better on the road as well. They have not been outrebounded on the road this year and have a 255/217 advantage over their opponents. At home they have been outrebounded in 4 games and their advantage is only 232/221 all of this due largely to the 36-14 advantage over GAC.

Finally I looked at assists to turnovers and found my answer. On the road they average 14.3 assists while committing13.3 turnovers for a 1.07 A/T ratio. At home they average 20.1 assists to 10.4 t.o. for a stellar 1.93 A/T ratio.

Correct me if someone knows better, but this would lead me to believe they run their offense "better" and are more disciplined at home. On the road they maybe rush things and "settle" for shots!

If anyone cares I would be interested to hear their take on these numbers. Maybe this oversimplefies things!

WARNING.  Nerdy Mathematical Analysis.

Along with shooting percentage come number of shots/shot distribution.

Generally a team gets about 75 shots a game.  Turnovers and missed offensive rebounds lower that number. Offensive rebounds ( aka second shot opportunities), steals, FTs add to that number.

SO theoretically it is possible to shoot a higher percentage in one circumstance and not do as well when you shoot a lower percentage.  The key is number of shots and shot slection.

I just did a quick analysis and seems like 80 is the magic number for the johnnies.  In their away games they rarely score above 80.  The exception is their Hamline game which went into overtime, they were at 80 at the end of regulation.  This indicates a fewer number of shots. Low number of shots, with even a good percentage leaads to lower scores.

Meanwhile they have had multiple W's above 80 pts at home.  Indicating more shots. 

You can interpret taking more shots as a "comfort" level, with home being more comfortable.

I might try to validate my theory by looking at shot attempts in the next couple days.