MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[miacwatchmen]

[P.S. edit - add Gustavus & Bethel to the mix & see what you come up with.  Gracias!!

No. But I can teach you to fish.... I don't see how anyone with more than 5 regional losses makes the tournament, baring a major conference tourney upset. There are just too many teams with less regional losses right now than that.

Well that eliminates 9 MIAC teams!

[Drake Palmer]

[P.S. edit - add Gustavus & Bethel to the mix & see what you come up with.  Gracias!!

No. But I can teach you to fish.... I don't see how anyone with more than 5 regional losses makes the tournament, baring a major conference tourney upset. There are just too many teams with less regional losses right now than that.

Ok, Sophocles, or was that Confucius! 

Sorry, I was thinking more along the lines of what would happen if they -- GAC or Bethel were to upset one of the higher seeds & lose in the MIAC conference tourney final.  Would they get in?  Based upon your previous post, I'm guessing the answer is no, & the only way they would qualify is to win the conference tourney outright. 

Also, even if SJU or UST would stumble prior to the league tourney finals, they have a decent chance of qualifiyng based upon their regional rankings & QOWI correct?

[miacwatchmen]

UST and SJU are 2 , 3 in the West Region rankings with UST appearing to get the automatic bid from the MIAC and SJU getting in as an at-large bid. SJU is currently ranked number 1 in the C group teams. SO they look to both be in.

[Drake Palmer]

EZ- there big fella  -- there's still a week & half left in the regular season, AND the conference tourney to be played.  What you posted is correct IF the season ended today.


I haven't put that BIG old YNOT whupping on your head just yet! 
   

[sumander]

UST and SJU are 2 , 3 in the West Region rankings with UST appearing to get the automatic bid from the MIAC and SJU getting in as an at-large bid. SJU is currently ranked number 1 in the C group teams. SO they look to both be in.

EZ- there big fella  -- there's still a week & half left in the regular season, AND the conference tourney to be played.  What you posted is correct IF the season ended today.


I haven't put that BIG old YNOT whupping on your head just yet! 
   

Hence the cautious optimism on my part! 

[bethelguy]

DP - GAC has no shot at a Pool C.  At this point BU also has no shot but had they beat UST on Saturday they might be a fringe team that is at least in the conversation.  But they lost and their 5 regional losses + the assumed loss in the conf tourney + their weak non-conference schedule make them more than a long shot. 

I did not spend my lunch hour figuring out current QOWI, it is often posted in other forums so I don't bother anymore.  But I am crunching last season's Pool C teams resumes to get a basic understanding of the basic minimums to get in.

[Willy Wonka]

UST and SJU are 2 , 3 in the West Region rankings with UST appearing to get the automatic bid from the MIAC and SJU getting in as an at-large bid. SJU is currently ranked number 1 in the C group teams. SO they look to both be in.

Where are you seeing these rankings? I thought the first official one came out tomorrow?

[diehardfan]

www.d3hoops.com/regions.php?region=west&team=m&view=standings

When I calculate QOWI, I'll make that into clearer table.

CMS had only five regional losses, but was 7-5 in region and really not worth calculating... even if they win out it will be bad.

Bethel on the other hand, if they win out (which they have a decent shot of doing given their sched), they will have a 17-6 in region record. And if they win a couple of games in the tournament, it will be what, 18-7? 19-7? I really doubt they have a shot at a Pool C, but I suppose it isn't completely out of the question if a whole bunch of other teams completely and utterly collapse. There are a whoooole bunch of teams that would get Pool C's in the West before them right now though.

[sumander]

UST and SJU are 2 , 3 in the West Region rankings with UST appearing to get the automatic bid from the MIAC and SJU getting in as an at-large bid. SJU is currently ranked number 1 in the C group teams. SO they look to both be in.

Where are you seeing these rankings? I thought the first official one came out tomorrow?

Over on the multi region topics, pool c thread.

[bethelguy]

those are not officia.  someone has been posting 10-12 of the top teams from each region and it is his ranking system.  He calculates their QOWI, RegRecord and his guestimate of Reg Ranking.  Then he ranks the Pool C teams and buckets the remaining teams as Pool C 2nd tier and 3rd tier. 

It is in the Pool C forum.

[bethelguy]

I am firmly in the camp of BU has less then a 1% chance of Pool C.  But to give hope to everyone out there remember that UW-LAX made it last year with the following resume...

18-7 regional record (.720)
QOWI - 9.880 (I don't know BU's but it probably isn't this high, probably closer to 9.5 or lower)
4th place in WIAC @ 10-6
Lost in WIAC semis (so didn't even have a big upset to get to Finals and impress the committee)

In their defense they beat UST and Carleton who were the 2 best that the MIAC had to offer, but they were 1-5 vs the 3 WIAC teams ahead of them and 7 in region losses is a pretty low standard. 

BU could finish reg season 18-6 (19-7 or even 20-7).  Ultimately I don't see 7 losses coupled with weak non-conf schedule being nearly enough, but maybe I can stoke the fire a little bit.  They need River Falls to boost their record and a host of other West Region teams to lose (a couple times) in the next week or 2.

[Drake Palmer]

Ok, the long & short of it -  barring any major hiccups the MIAC could mebbe get 3 teams if one of our lower seeds won the conference tourney.   Based on how our top seeds - UST & SJU have fared against non-regional teams, I would prefer not to see that happen.  Otherwise we could wind up looking like the Big Ten, qualify 6-7 teams for the tourney & have none of them survive into the 2nd weekend.

Give me one or two strong teams that pack some whupa**, skillz, luck & guts & I'll be alright.   

Thanks DHF!

[diehardfan]

I forgot an entire conference in addition to counting a SCIAC opponent as in region when they are still in their second year of being provisional... 

The list is found at  http://www.d3hoops.com/regions.php?region=west&team=m&view=standings

There are currently 6 Pool C's in front of Bethel in In region win percentage. I will still try to calculate QOWI.... just have been incredibly busy today, sorry!  The fact that Bethel has a win against St. John's, a team that will undoubtedly be ranked helps them... esp if they knock off St. Thomas or St. Johns again on the way to the conference tourney finals. But they are at least 3-4 slots from even being the last team in the west to be regionally ranked to be on that table come selection sunday. I guess we'll just see as it gets closer!

[diehardfan]

I'll try and make this into a proper table when I get the chance....

team	W-L	.Pct	QOWI
UW-Stevens Point (WIAC)	17-1	.944	11.667
St. Thomas (MIAC)	20-2	.909	10.364
St. John's (MIAC)	17-2	.895	10.211
Whitworth (NWC)	16-2	.889	10.167
Occidental (SCIAC)	9-2	.818	10.182
Redlands (SCIAC)	9-2	.818	09.455
Puget Sound (NWC)	13-3	.813	09.625
UW-Oshkosh	15-4	.789	10.158
Loras (IIAC)	13-4	.765	09.706
Coe (IIAC)	14-5	.737	09.737
Lewis & Clark (NWC)	11-4	.733	09.214
Bethel (MIAC)	14-6	.700	08.800

(This was made into a proper table courtesy of Sensei Sager. Again, April, you're welcome. )
         

My Projected West Rankings:

1)   Stevens Point
2)   St Thomas
3)   St Johns
4)   Whitworth
5)   Occidental
6)   Oshkosh
7)   Puget Sound

The next one: Redlands

Bethel's QOWI may be too low to take them serious from here on out as a contender.... sorry. 

[sumander]

Diehardfan Thanks for the projections. It will be interesting to see how accurate you are!

Fins, We'll be taking the bandwagon out for another tune up run tonight. Auggie Tech coming to C-ville. I trust you adjusted the air pressure in the monster tires? Hopefully that will allow us to get off to a little quicker start tonight!